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• Department of Economics
• PhD in Economics

PhD Graduates

Testimonials / job placement.

We take pride in our small-scaled PhD program, which allows us to focus on individual student mentorship. Our PhD students receive a rigorous theoretical and/or econometric training, which opens up excellent employment opportunities. Job placements of recent graduates include the Bank of Canada, Erasmus University Rotterdam, European Central Bank, European Commission, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Roland Berger Strategy Consultants, University of Münster and VU University Amsterdam.

Elien Meuleman

PhD in Economics at Ghent University (2020 ) F inancial analyst Microprudential Supervision at the National Bank of Belgium, Brussels and affiliated researcher at Ghent University

"After obtaining the master's degree in Economics, I decided to stay at Ghent University for another year and started a master's in Banking and Finance. There, I got the opportunity to work with some PhD students which made me think about an academic career. However, I decided to join Deloitte but 1.5 years later I got the chance to start at the Department of Economics as a researcher. And I still do not regret that decision: the 5 years I worked at the university were an unforgettable experience. Writing the PhD was a process of hard work, but also at times less hard work, doubting myself and changing my mind several times, but it also allowed me to grow as an academic and as a person. I can say that during this time I have learned a lot about banking and banking regulation, I have also learned to accept failure, criticism and rejection, and also that hard work pays off. The working environment at the University is cosy and allows a lot of flexibility, which I really appreciated. But what I enjoyed the most are the colleagues that have become friends for live. I thus highly recommend to start a PhD at Ghent University!"

Eva Van Belle

PhD in Economics at Ghent University (2018 ) P ostDoc for Université de Neuchâtel and NCCR - on the move

"After an international master and an internship at the UN in New York, I returned to Ghent University for a PhD in Economics. I use the word “returned” because the faculty and the department will always feel a bit like home to me. Doing a PhD is a rollercoaster of ups and downs, but I am sure there is no better place to take on this challenge than the department of Economics. Everyone is warm, welcoming, knowledgeable and accessible. The administrative staff is always there to help you with anything, professors keep their doors open and are ready to provide useful feedback, and colleagues will make sure that you get enough food, drinks and distractions. If there is still something that could be improved, there is the OAP-council – which defends the interest of non-professorial academic staff. A great way to get to know the inner workings of a faculty – and all the great people making it work."

Jasmien De Winne

PhD in Economics at Ghent University (2018 ) D iplomat at the Federal Public Service Foreign Affairs, Brussels

"As a PhD Student at the Faculty of Economics and Business Administration I appreciated the opportunities to follow courses, to attend summer schools, and to travel abroad for conferences. I tremendously enjoyed the support and guidance from my supervisor and other senior researchers and professors, who - despite their own research and teaching assignments - remained accessible. The Department of Economics has a broad international network, making it easy to link up with top researchers and institutions around the globe. Last but not least, as working towards that PhD is not always an easy and straightforward process, what I enjoyed a lot during my PhD were the warm atmosphere, the coffee breaks, lunches and Friday evening drinks with my fellow PhD students."

Brecht Boone

PhD in Economics at Ghent University (2017 ) M anager by E.CA Economics, Brussels

"I truly enjoyed my PhD studies at Ghent University. Being a PhD student at the Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, you will get the opportunity to work alongside top researchers and, above all, great colleagues. Throughout my PhD, I always felt supported, challenged and encouraged by my supervisor and colleagues, and also got the opportunity to attend interesting courses and conferences. Overall, the atmosphere is truly amazing. In addition, being a PhD student at Ghent University also allows you to enjoy life outside the PhD. Not only are there regular social events, Ghent is also an amazing city to live in. I highly recommend doing a PhD at Ghent University!"

Hauke Vierke

Joint PhD in Economics at Ghent University and University of Göttingen, Germany (2015 ) E conomic Analyst at the European Commission, Brussels

"I initially started my PhD studies in Germany and joined Ghent University as part of a joint PhD agreement. Coming to Ghent was clearly one of the best decisions during my PhD years. The Faculty of Economics and Business Administration offers an excellent environment where young researchers are encouraged to develop and pursue their own academic interests. I have greatly benefited from discussing ideas with senior researchers, but also with other motivated PhD students. Most importantly, people at the faculty made me feel welcome from the first moment on. The administrative staff are very friendly and eager to help international students. Finally, it is easy to fall in love with the beautiful city of Ghent. I highly recommend coming here as an international PhD student."

Andrea Albanese

Joint PhD in Economics at Ghent University and University of Milan-Bicocca, Italy (2015 ) Researcher at Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research, Esch-sur-Alzette 

"After beginning my doctoral studies in Italy, I started a joint PhD programme at Ghent University thanks to a scholarship funded by the Special Research Fund (BOF). In the Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, I found an outstanding research environment and I immensely learned from its leading professors and senior researchers in the different fields of Economics. Besides the impressive research infrastructures, I greatly benefitted from the extended research network of the Faculty’s researchers, which extends well beyond the Belgian border. Studying at UGent was also fun, thanks to a friendly team of international and local PhD students ready to welcome you. My period at Ghent has been a corner pillar for my career development and, without doubts, I would definitely recommend doing a PhD at UGent."

Graduates per key research area

• Banking & Finance
• Environmental Economics
• International Economics
• Labour Economics & Welfare
• Macroeconomics, Policy & Econometrics
• Interdisciplinary Research

Latest Graduates

First placement (when available) in parenthesis

• Frederic Opitz, November 2023, Topics in Empirical Macroeconomics ( European Commission)
• Nicolas De Vijlder , October 2023,  Essays on land and credit markets : the Southern Low Countries, 1400-1900 ( one-pager  and elevator-pitch ) (BNP Paribas Fortis)
• Tom Eeckhout , August 2023, Measuring corruption, intergenerational mobility and human capital using trace data : evidence from Russia (Ghent University) ( one-pager )
• Louis Lippens , August 2023, Recruiter says 'no' : measuring and explaining labour market discrimination (Ghent University)
• Abel Ghekiere , May 2023, Better luck next time... New methodological approaches to understanding and reducing the mechanisms of rental discrimination
• Astrid Buchmayr , January 2023, Development and application of a holistic sustainability assessment of energy technologies (Ghent University)
• Pieter Van Rymenant , January 2023, The macroeconomic, distributional and welfare effects of estate taxation  (Ghent University)
• Els Bekaert , October 2022,  Understanding migration drivers : the role of health and climate factors  ( Ghent University) ( one-pager and elevator-pitch )
• Wouter van Der Veken , August 2022,  Topics in empirical macroeconomics (National Bank of Belgium)
• Nicolas Soenen, June 2022,  Regulation, monetary policy and bank risk  (Belfius)
• Dimitrios Kolokas , June 2022,  Essays in financial innovation and sustainability (KKS Advisors) ( one-pager and elevator-pitch )
• Thomas Present , March 2022, Banking and regulation in Europe after the Great Financial Crisis (Belfius) ( one-pager and elevator-pitch )
• Killian Foubert , January 2022, Essays on migration (intentions) and terrorism (United Nations University)
• Kobra Ahmadpour , December 2021, Essays in Behavioral Finance: Investor Response to Oil Spills, and Hedge Fund and CTA Managers' Risk Shifting Behavior (Yuso)
• Hannah Van Borm , November 2021, An Arab, a woman, and an old guy walk into a job interview: Examining explanations for discrimination in hiring ( Stad Antwerpen)
• Sam Hamels , September 2021, Realising a carbon-neutral European electricity system and building stock – technoeconomic and financial challenges ( Ghent University)
• Simon Amez , July 2021, Scroll, study, sleep, repeat! Examining the toxic love triangle between smartphone use, sleep quality and academic performance ( Vrije Universiteit Brussel)
• Jessie Vantieghem , July 2021, Credit Rating Agencies and Their Role of Disseminating Information ( KBC Bank & Verzekering)
• Linh Nguyen Thi Dieu , June 2021, Climate change adaptation and sustainable agriculture : the case of saltwater intrusion and rice production in central coastal region of Vietnam ( Hue college of economics)
• Raheel Asif , May 2021,  Essays on Asset Pricing, Financial Crisis, and Market Efficiency  ( Ghent University)
• Bram De Lange , April 2021,  State-Ownership and the European Economy (FOD Economie / SPF Economie / FPS Economy)
• Jonas Van der Slycken , March 2021, Beyond GDP: alternative measures of economic welfare for the EU-15 ( De Transformisten)
• Kevin Hoefman , November 2020, Live Agent-Based Models  ( Ghent University)
• Elien Meuleman , October 2020, Macroprudential policy, monetary policy and bank stability in Europe (National Bank of Belgium)
• Sarmad Zaman Rajper , October 2020, Essays on Prospects of Electric Vehicles in Pakistan ( PTOLEMUS Consulting Group)
• Joris Wauters , September 2020,  Essays on wage and price inflation (National Bank of Belgium)
• Désirée Vandenberghe , September 2020,  The economics of preventive health care (Möbius Business Redesign)
• Brecht Neyt , August 2020, How decisions in school affect how easily you find a job (and a date) ( Ghent University)
• Andres Algaba , August 2020,   Predictive data filters for timely economic and financial decision making (Vrije Universiteit Brussel)
• Thi Xuan Linh Nguyen , August 2020,  Corporate sustainability performance in the emerging East Asian markets (University of Danang)
• Stefanie Vanneste , April 2020, The effect of politics on the financial performance of Flemish local governments (Vlaamse Overheid)
• Sümeyra Atmaca , March 2020, Institutions and networks ( Ghent University)
• Ruben Dewitte,  January 2020, Firm heterogeneity in international trade ( Ghent University)
• Haya Al-Ajlani , January 2020,  Well-being and state fragility:  a non-paternalistic approach to well-being, a conceptual index of state fragility, and their (Ghent University)
• Carel Johannes van der Merwe , January 2020, Classifying yield spread movements in sparse data through triplots (Ghent University, Stellenbosch University)

Former Graduates

• Martin Iseringhausen , November 2019, Unobserved components models in macroeconomics and finance (Ghent University)
• Stef De Visscher , October 2019, Measuring total factor productivity and understanding its determinants (KBC, Finance & Risk)
• Milan van den Heuvel , September 2019, Addressing socioeconomic challenges with micro-level trace data (Ghent University)
• Bruno Ferreira Albuquerque , June 2019, Household debt, housing cycles, and interactions with monetary policy (Bank of England)
• Hannes Stieperaere , June 2019, Investor behavior and the effect on financial markets (National Bank of Belgium)
• Benjamin Schalembier , April 2019, How relative income affects life satisfaction (Flemish Government Department for Work & Social Economy)
• Frederik Mergaerts , March 2019, Essays in financial economics (De Nederlandsche Bank)
• Annelies Hoebeeck , February 2019, The tax benefit for mortgage payments : incentive effects and implications for house prices (Flemish Government Department for Finance and Budget)
• Vu Ha Phuoc , December 2018, Governance and Firm Efficiency in Vietnam (Danang University of Economics, Vietnam)
• Thomas Matthys , December 2018, Topics in Financial Economics (Vlerick Business School)
• Willem Devriendt , October 2018, Coping with Demographic Change: Macroeconomic Effects and Optimal Pension Reform. (IDEA Consult)
• Ignace De Vos , October 2018, Panel Data Econometrics - Dynamics and Cross-Section Dependence (Lund University)
• Eva Van Belle , June 2018, Getting Stuck in Unemployment: Pitfalls and Helping Hands.  (Université de Neuchâtel)
• Jasmien De Winne , Februari 2018, The Consequences of Food Price Changes: A Macroeconomic Perspective  (Belgian Foreign Affaires Department)
• Yelter Bollen , February 2018, The domestic politics of EU trade policy : the political-economy of CETA and anti-dumping in Belgium and the Netherlands.  (Université Libre de Bruxelles)
• Marco Bernardini , December 2017, Private Debt and Macroeconomic Stability (Bank of Italy)
• Kevin Lampaert , December 2017, Essays on the FX market microstructure.  (Wolters Kluwer)
• Dinçer Afat , November 2017, Essays on exchange rates. 
• Angelos Theodorakopoulos , August 2017, Internationalisation and firm performance.  (KU Leuven, VIVES - Research Centre for Regional Economics)
• Brecht Boone , June 2017, Labour Market Imperfections, Expectations and Fiscal Policy in Dynamic Macro Models (E.CA Economics) 
• Gert Elaut , June 2017, Microeconomics of financial markets.  (KBC Asset Management)
• Ewoud Quaghebeur , May 2017, Expectations and the Macroeconomic Dynamics of Fiscal Policy (Ghent University)
• Benjamin Vandermarliere, May 2017, A temporal network perspective of collective behavior in economic systems.  (Ghent University)
• Murat Midiliç , December 2016, Essays on nonlinear time-series modeling and financial markets in emerging economies.  (Deloitte Belgium)
• Yannick Thuy , September 2016, Age, women, and employment: an evaluation.  (Planbureau)
• Garo Garabedian , January 2016, Essays on the procyclicality of financial cycles and the vulnerability of emerging markets.  (Central Bank of Ireland)
• Andrea Albanese , December 2015, Employment of young and older workers: three policy evaluations.  (Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research - LISER)
• Xing Han , December 2015, Essays on market microstructure and liquidity.  (University of Otago, New Zealand)
• Jose Figueroa Oropeza , December 2015, Children's opportunities and impact evaluation.  (International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, USA)
• Stijn Ronsse , December 2015, Explorations in Cliometrics.  (Idea Consult; Ghent University)
• Victoria Purice, October 2015, Multinational activity and firm performance.  (University of Groningen)
• Ruben Schoonackers , September 2015, Empirical Essays on Fiscal Policy, Growth and Consumption (National Bank of Belgium)
• Samuel Standaert , September 2015, Economic integration and corruption : resolving measurement and endogeneity problems through state-space modeling.  (Ghent University)
• Hauke Vierke , September 2015, Macroeconomics and the Labor Market (European Commission)
• Ruben Laleman , May 2015, Policies to support the low carbon electricity transition ( CRB   Centrale   Raad   voor   Bedrijfsleven)
• Corinna Ghirelli , December 2014, Unemployment: scars and preferences.  (National Bank of Spain)
• Karolien Lenaerts , December 2014, Firm-level heterogeneity and the demand and supply side of foreign direct investment spillovers. 
• Martien Lamers , October 2014, Essays on behavior and extreme events.  (Rijksuniversiteit Groningen, Nederland)
• Selien De Schryder , September 2014, Topics in Monetary Economics (Ghent University)
• Tim Buyse , June 2014, Public pension and debt policies in general equilibrium, (Flanders Social and Economic Council, research department)
• Frederick Van Gysegem , December 2013, Liquidity provision in the interbank foreign exchange market.  (Roland Berger)
• Sietse Bracke , October 2013, Empirical essays on the economics of divorce
• Daan Isebaert , October 2013, Housing and Labour Market Performance (Flemish Organization for the Social Enterprise Sector)
• Stijn Baert , August 2013, Transitions in youth : on springboards, waterfalls and bottlenecks. (UGent)
• Bart Defloor , July 2013, Policy evaluation in a non-welfarist framework.  (Hoge School Gent)
• Nora Srzentić , July 2013, Banking and finance in Central and Eastern European countries
• Arnoud Stevens , June 2013, Applications in dynamic stochastic general equilibrium macroeconomics (National Bank of Belgium)
• Valerie De Bruyckere , May 2013, Bank risk, interconnectedness and bank business models.  (European Bank Authority)
• Glenn Schepens , May 2013, Essays in banking. (NNB)
• Ilse Ruyssen , April 2013, Determinants of international migration.  (Université catholique de Louvain)
• Mustafa Disli , April 2013, Essays on the Turkisch Banking System.  (Ghent University)
• Renaat Van de Kerckhove , April 2013, Public Policy, Employment and Growth in Open Economies (Infrabel)
• Klaas Mulier , March 2013, Investment, growth and the access to finance of firms: an empirical analysis
• Joost Vandenbossche , December 2012, Essays on the partnership problem
• Benjamin Verhelst , September 2012, Price Rigidity in Europe and the US: Measurement and Explanation using Scanner Data (Roland Berger Strategy Consultants)
• Marijn Verschelde , June 2012, Nonparametric production and frontier analysis: applications in economics
• Ine Van Robays , May 2012, The interactions between oil, the macroeconomy and monetary policy (European Central Bank)
• Martin Saldias Zambrana , August 2011, Essays on market-based analysis of financial stability
• Stefan Van Parys, February 2011, Empirical contributions to international and local tax interaction
• Christa Sys , December 2010, Inside the box: assessing the competitive conditions, the concentration and the market structure of the container liner shipping industry
• Punnoose Jacob , May 2010, Three essays in dynamic stochastic macroeconomics (École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne)
• Lieven Baert , March 2010, The effect of banks on the external finance behavior of firms
• Christiane Baumeister , December 2009, Empirical macro models in a time-varying framework (Bank of Canada)
• Maarten Dossche , December 2008, Essays on inflation dynamics (National Bank of Belgium)
• Alexei Karas , December 2008, Essays on the Russian Banking System
• Bert Vanbergen , October 2008, Are social welfare states facing a race to the bottom?: a theoretical perspective
• Roeland Bracke , September 2008, New ways of governing environmental pollution from business : voluntary approach from an institutional economic perspective
• Bart Leyman , September 2008, An economic analysis of creditor behavior in distressed companies
• Arne Schollaert , June 2008, Civil conflict and its causes
• Tino Berger , May 2008, Identifying and explaining structural unemployment (University of Münster)
• Thomas Demuynck , April 2008, Binary extensions and choice theory
• Ferre De Graeve , December 2007, Interactions between the real and financial economy (Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas)
• Olivier De Jonghe , December 2007, Competition and risk in financial institutions and the implications for financial stability
• Elsy Verhofstadt , September 2007, Qualitative aspects of entry jobs
• Gleb Lanine , December 2006, Topics on modeling risk in transitional economy
• Sophie Claeys , May 2006, Optimal regulatory design in banking in transition economies
• Koen Inghelbrecht , May 2006, The comovement of asset returns
• Dieter Verhaest , May 2006, Overeducation in the labour market
• Mattias Neyt , February 2006, Economic evaluation of medical innovations
• Roland Luttens, December 2005, Essays on non-welfaristic redistribution
• Bruno Merlevede , May 2005, The effects of economic reform and foreign direct investment on the domestic economy and the domestic companies of Central and Eastern European transition countries
• Wim Van Hyfte , May 2005, The predictability of bond and stock returns and the implications for portfolio allocation
• Niko Gobbin , January 2005, Economic growth, income inequality and welfare states
• Sabien Dobbelaere , May 2004, An Analysis of Union Behaviour and Wage Formation in a Globalised Word (VU University Amsterdam)
• Lorenzo Pozzi , January 2003, Fiscal Policy, Government Debt and Private Consumption (Erasmus University Rotterdam)
• Johan Albrecht , April 2002, Institutional and instrumental innovations for environmental policy
• Tom Verbeke , April 2002, Essays on the international economic order and environmental policy: the opportunities and threats for an open economy
• Gerdie Everaert , November 2000, Public Capital, Economic Growth and the Labour Market (Ghent University)

34 Economics PhD positions in belgium

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• Scholarship 26
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• Ghent University 13
• University of Antwerp 6
• KU Leuven 5
• Vlerick Business School 3
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• Université de Namur 1
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• Economics 17
• Computer Science 8
• Engineering 2

PhD research position on the ' Economics of Education'

21 Feb 2024 Job Information Organisation/Company KU Leuven Research Field Economics » Labour economics Researcher Profile First Stage Researcher (R1) Country Belgium Application Deadline 18 Mar 2024

Full-time Teaching & Research Assistant Position in Information Management / Data Science (PhD-track) 160-51

Computer science » Modelling tools Computer science » Programming Computer science » Systems design Economics » Management studies Researcher Profile First Stage Researcher (R1) Country Belgium Application Deadline

PhD Student - Department of Information Technology

27 Feb 2024 Job Information Organisation/Company Ghent University Research Field Engineering » Computer engineering Economics » Industrial economics Engineering » Industrial engineering Economics

PhD student vaccinology

health and economic outcomes, it is crucial to link the supply subsystem and the disease subsystem. This allows to model the dynamics of both supply and demand, combined with a multi-criteria decision

Doctoral Researchers in Sustainable Finance

29 Feb 2024 Job Information Organisation/Company KU Leuven Research Field Economics Researcher Profile First Stage Researcher (R1) Country Belgium Application Deadline 5 Apr 2024 - 00:00 (UTC) Type

PhD position Marketing

15 Feb 2024 Job Information Organisation/Company KU Leuven Research Field Economics Researcher Profile First Stage Researcher (R1) Country Belgium Application Deadline 18 Mar 2024 - 00:00 (UTC) Type

PhD in Empirical Legal Research on Responsible Corporate Conduct in Global Value Chains (GVCs)

22 Feb 2024 Job Information Organisation/Company Vrije Universiteit Brussel (VUB) Research Field Economics » Administrative sciences Economics » Environmental economics Juridical sciences

PhD Position in Operations Management

internationally mobile and to enroll in the PhD program of the Faculty of Economics and Business, which entails 21-ECTS of relevant coursework during the first year of the PhD. The candidates also give guidance

PhD Student - Department of Data Analysis and Mathematical Modelling

economy . This transition is inherently a multidisciplinary and multi-objective effort that implies bridging historical silo’s (for example drinking water, wastewater, hydrology for rainwater harvesting

PhD Researcher: Cultivating and Operationalising data and AI in a pharmaceutical company

17 Feb 2024 Job Information Organisation/Company Vlerick Business School Research Field Cultural studies Medical sciences Economics Technology Researcher Profile Recognised Researcher (R2) First

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PhD student may choose doctoral courses among the following list:

• doctoral course offered by the Economics School :
• Advanced Elective courses (Options Advanced Economic I & II) from the UCLouvain research master in economics
• LIDAM seminars
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U.S. News & World Report: Deese College No. 1 HBCU Graduate Business School

By Todd Simmons / 04/10/2024 College of Business and Economics , The Graduate College

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EAST GREENSBORO, N.C. (April 10, 2024) – The Willie A. Deese College of Business and Economics at North Carolina Agricultural and Technical State University is the No. 1 business school among America’s historically Black colleges and universities (HBCUs), according to U.S. News & World Report’s “Best Graduate Colleges” rankings, released Tuesday.

The Deese College has now appeared in the Top 100 for four consecutive years, coming in at a tie for No. 79 with the University of Detroit Mercy, a private, Roman Catholic campus. Clark Atlanta University (No. 93, tie) is the only other ranked HBCU. Howard, with which N.C. A&T was tied last year, is unranked this year.

Among North Carolina schools, A&T only trails Duke University, the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill and North Carolina State University. The college is named for A&T alumnus Willie A. Deese, who served prominently as president of global manufacturing for the pharmaceutical giant, Merck. Now retired, Deese continues to play a prominent role at his alma mater.

“We’re delighted that our Deese College continues to factor so prominently nationally among graduate business schools,” said Lisa Owens-Jackson, Ph.D., interim dean of the Deese College. “Our ranking this year is an honest reflection of the quality of our MBA programs, the excellence of our students and our graduates’ career placement success.”

A&T’s fast-growing master’s and doctoral programs in computer science moved into a tie for No. 163 nationally, up eight positions from last year. A&T ranks No. 7 nationally in graduation of African American master’s graduates in computer science and No. 1 among HBCUs.

Other nationally ranked A&T graduate programs remain in the same positions as last year, owing to multiple factors at U.S. News & World Report . The magazine encountered data issues with its Best Engineering Programs list and has postponed new rankings until that is resolved.

Ranked programs in rehabilitation counseling, biological sciences, earth sciences and mathematics maintained their 2023 positions, as U.S. News has not published new rankings data for those disciplines. Master’s and doctoral rehabilitation counseling programs in the College of Education continue to be A&T’s most highly ranked graduate programs, coming in at No. 46 (tie) nationally.

With nearly 1,700 master’s and doctoral students, A&T continues to grow at the graduate student level. As America’s most affordable doctoral research university, it offers outstanding academic quality at an exceptional price and strong connections to industry. According to U.S. News’ most recent salary rankings, graduates earn the second-highest starting salaries of any campus in the University of North Carolina System.

Media Contact Information: [email protected]

Latest News

04/10/2024 in College of Business and Economics , The Graduate College

N.C. A&T’s Jazz Ensemble Presents Spring Concert Featuring Tunes from Miles Davis

04/09/2024 in College of Arts, Humanities and Social Sciences

N.C. A&T Chancellor Search Advisory Committee to Hold Meeting April 15

Department of Economics

Best paper award for professor giovanni ricco.

Professor Giovanni Ricco has received a prestigious American Economic Journal Best Paper 2024 Award Link opens in a new window for a paper published in the American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics .

The awards are made annually to the best paper published in each of the four American Economic Journals – Applied Economics, Macroeconomics, Economic Policy and Microeconomics - in the previous three years. The winning papers are chosen by the journals’ Boards of Editors from those nominated by AEA members.

Professor Ricco’s paper was published in 2021 and is co-authored with Professor Silvia Miranda-Agrippino, Research Economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York

In The Transmission of Monetary Policy Shocks Silvia Miranda-Agrippino and Giovanni Ricco study widely used instruments for the identification of monetary policy disturbances, show how the use of these instruments is behind the empirical puzzles reported in the literature, and propose a new high-frequency instrument for monetary policy shocks that accounts for informational rigidities.

Commenting on his award, Professor Ricco said it was a complete surprise but a very welcome one.

Head of Department Ben Lockwood said: “On behalf of all in Warwick Economics I’d like to congratulate Giovanni on his ‘best paper’ award. It is a significant achievement for him personally and an important accolade for the Department."

• The Transmission of Monetary Policy Shocks Silvia Miranda-Agrippino and Giovanni Ricco, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 2021, 13(3): 74–107. https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20180124
• Full text versions of the four winning articles are available at https://www.aeaweb.org/about-aea/honors-awards/aej-best-papers Link opens in a new window .

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Housing, inflation and the Fed

April 8 , 2024

“Water, water every where,

Nor any drop to drink.”

That line from Samuel Taylor Coleridge’s poem “ The Rime of the Ancient Mariner ” has always haunted me. Its imagery of scarcity amidst abundance seems an apt metaphor for ongoing constraints on the housing market, despite the strongest recovery from a recession since the early 1980s.

There is no topic that has evoked more emotion over the last year than my discussions on the dynamics of the housing market. The anger and resentment are palpable, especially when I talk about it on my X-feed (the platform formerly known as Twitter).

I understand. Shelter is a basic need, along with food and water; it is unaffordable for too many. The problem predates the pandemic, but the pivot online and shift to work and schooling from home exacerbated the problem.

Home values have gone up more than 50% since 2019, rents have risen more than 30%. Wages and salaries have risen about 18%.

Many have lost hope of ever owning a home. A recent poll revealed that eight in ten renters still aspire to own a home, but more than 60% believe they will never be able to do so. Millennials are the most disillusioned.

It reminds me of the sense of foreboding my father felt when I was young. The stagflation of the 1970s and double-digit interest rates of the early 1980s left him convinced that I and my generation would never achieve the milestones he had.

One of his greatest accomplishments was the purchase of my childhood home with my mom, the epitome of the “American Dream.” It was a tiny brick house with the same floor plan as all the others that lined our street. I never had to ask where the bathroom was when playing with all my friends on the street. It was built in the wake of WW-II to house soldiers returning home and working in the auto plants in Detroit.

Rates fell and homeownership rebounded. I ended up buying my first home at the same age that my father had. I remember the day our offer was accepted. It was Saint Patrick’s Day.The realtor told me I had the luck of the Irish. In Chicago, everyone is Irish on Saint Patrick’s Day.

Fast forward to today. The mortgage winter, which has frozen existing homeowners in place and buyers out, is primed to thaw. Listings are beginning to pick up. That doesn’t mean the housing shortages will soon dissipate; they are chronic.

Estimates are all over the place, ranging from a low of 1.8 million to a high of 5.5 million, depending on the methodology. Reality is somewhere in between. I prefer estimates based on demographics and the stock of homes in the market. They suggest that the shortfall is closer to three million.

The data are worse for the poorest households. We need some seven million homes to house those who earn the least; that is gut-wrenching and provides context for the ranks of the working homeless.

This edition of Economic Compass takes a close look at the outlook for housing, what it means for the outlook for inflation and how the Federal Reserve will react to those shifts. Recent inflation data has reminded us that the path down on inflation can be “bumpy.” The improvement in home values and rents could stall, while other prices related to housing could rise.

The good news is that we appear to be at a peak in rates. The Fed would rather hold rates higher for longer than risk a recession to cross the finish line on inflation. The bad news is that we now expect two instead of three rate cuts this year.

The economy remains strong

This iteration of the forecast includes an upward revision to the immigration data, which strains state and local resources, but adds to the overall economic growth. The increase in immigration boosts labor force growth, the pace that employment continues to improve and consumer spending in 2024. We have also kept a shock to the VIX before and after the election, given the high probability of a contested election outcome.

Real GDP is expected to rise 2.3% in the first quarter, a sharp slowdown from the 3.4% pace of the fourth quarter. However, much of that “weakness” is due to a large widening of the trade deficit; imports of services (travel abroad) was especially strong. Consumer spending moderates but does not collapse, while the housing market gains momentum. Business investment slows but inventories drained in the fourth quarter are rebuilt. Government spending slows in response to a drop in federal spending, which was curbed due to the continuing resolution.

Real GDP is forecast to rise 2.1% in the second quarter. Gains in consumer spending are expected to drive overall growth along with the housing market. Business investment continues to slow, inventories are little changed and the trade deficit further widens. Government spending remains subdued, with a rebound in federal spending triggered by the budget deal offset by a slowdown in state and local spending.

Fed holds. The Fed is now expected to hold off on rate cuts until September and cut only twice instead of three times in 2024

The housing outlook

Table 1 summarizes the outlook for housing given the forecast for a soft landing or better:

• New and existing home sales are forecast to rise 5.4% to 5.03 million units in 2024. New home sales are expected to pick up more than existing home sales.
• Housing starts are forecast to rise 2.7% to 1.46 million units in 2024. A double-digit jump in singlefamily starts is expected to offset a sharp drop in multifamily construction. 
• Home values are forecast to rise between 2% and 5%, depending on the measure. That is a slight moderation from last year.

Table 1: Housing Outlook

Underlying fundamentals

Millennials are a force to reckon with.

The outlook for the housing market rests on a complex mix of the ability and willingness to buy:

• The economy is expected to continue to grow in 2024, but at a slower fourth-quarter-to-fourth-quarter pace than in 2023; unemployment is expected to remain near record lows. 
• Wage gains are expected to cool but not collapse, which is helping to improve affordability along with a slowdown in the pace of housing appreciation. 
• The number of new homes completed topped 1.7 million in February, the largest number since the start of 2007. That is not enough to meet all demand, especially for those with the lowest incomes, but it is a step in the right direction.
• Builders have proven themselves nimbler, moving downscale on size and offering incentives, including mortgage rate discounts to attract first-time buyers.
• Listings are starting to pick up.
• Millennials are forming households, having children and moving into their peak home buying age – more than 12,000 are turning 35 a day, the largest cohort to do so on record. 
• The desire to buy remains elevated, despite low affordability; the largest hurdle to acting among highincome prospective buyers is a drop in rates.
• Every time rates drop below the 7% threshold, applications to purchase a home pick up; we are close to that level now.
• Aging in place continues, but more arbitrage opportunities exist for buyers willing to trade their suburban homes for smaller condos and co-ops.

 It would not take much of a drop in rates to unleash pent-up demand, especially among the largest generation of young adults we have ever seen. 

Subdued gains

Existing and new sales rise.

Existing home sales are expected to rise to 4.3 million in 2024, up 4.9% from 2023. The gains are expected to come in fits and starts, given the uncertainty about the timing of rate cuts but the trend is in the right direction. Supply is the primary constraint to stronger growth but other factors are now weighing on decisions.

Climate change is beginning to affect decision making. Areas most exposed to climate disasters are selling at a discount relative to properties with lower risks. Low-income households were left no choice but to live in the highest risk and least desirable areas.

The damage associated with extreme climate events is accelerating. (See Chart 1.) Insurance companies have begun to raise premiums or pull out entirely from areas with the highest risks. Lenders are likely to follow suit and tighten standards for homes in the most exposed areas. Those shifts hit low-income households harder.

Wealthy households who want the amenities of a beach view are more likely to take or discount that risk. They can either afford the exorbitant insurance associated with building near rising water levels or discount the risk of a disaster affecting them. Consumers who have done better financially, and suffered fewer setbacks in their lives, tend to believe they will continue to do so and vice versa.

The pivot to work-from-home and surge in weddings and births post-pandemic has prompted buyers to move much further from their work than they were prepandemic. Average commutes have increased by 10 miles to 27 miles; millennials have moved the furthest away from their work. That suggests that: 1) there is no putting the work-from-home genie in the bottle and 2) demand for homes in suburban and even exurban areas is expected to remain robust.

Urban centers still offer students, empty nesters and many families opportunities. Cities offer a broad spectrum of services that small communities might not have, from healthcare to entertainment and mass transit. Their demise has been greatly exaggerated.

There is an arbitrage opportunity for empty nesters to trade in their suburban home for a premium and get a deal on condos and co-ops in some urban centers. I talked to two who have done so in the last week alone in Chicago.

Many of the hottest pandemic markets have seen a drop in prices, but migration to those markets remains strong. Austin is a good example.

First-time buyers are relying more on their parents to help them with down payments than in the past. Many have parents who have either locked into ultralow rates or paid off their mortgages, which has made it easier for them to help their children with down payments.

The downside to the shifts associated with climate change and the inter-generational wealth transfers is that they tend to exacerbate inequalities. Older, white parents own an outsized share of homes and are better positioned to help their children than other groups.

Single women are the fastest rising demographic of home buyers. They have out-attained men in education through graduate school, and narrowed but not fully closed the gap in what they earn relative to men.

New home sales are expected to rise faster than existing sales, reflecting a move downstream by builders. Builders have become extremely nimble and able to adjust to market conditions as they change. They rolled back incentives in recent months as demand picked up from falling mortgage rates.

New home prices dropped in recent years, as builders built smaller homes. However, there is a limit to how much more they can continue to reduce prices. Zoning laws and land values are buoying property costs, while supply chains remain fragile and complaints of worker shortages are still common.

Regional differences . Pending home sales, which tend to lead overall sales by a month or two, rebounded slightly in March after losing ground earlier in the year. The South and Midwest saw gains, while higher cost regions in the Northeast and West continued to struggle. A drop in mortgage rates will more evenly spur demand across regions, although migration from high- to low-cost areas continues.

The new low-cost areas are now in the Midwest, which didn’t experience the surge in migration or prices that occurred in pandemic hot spots. Pockets in the South remain destinations, including Texas and Florida. Arizona has cooled substantially over the last year, which is reflected in a rise in listings.

Chart 1: Disasters getting more frequent

Number of (inflation-adjusted) billion dollar disasters

Housing starts diverge

A jump in single-family starts, which are counted when ground is broken on a new project, is expected to offset a sharp drop in multifamily construction. Publicly traded home builders have deep pockets and have been able to clear a profit as they moved downscale and offered mortgage buydowns to tap millennial demand.

Multifamily construction ballooned in recent years but started to slide in 2023. The softening of rents, higher rates and tighter lending standards took a toll on valuations. The largest overbuilding occurred in the markets where people were migrating.

However, most in the industry believe that valuations on multifamily properties are nearing a bottom. Apartment demand remains strong in many of the most overbuilt markets.

That suggests that the relief we see in rents could be temporary. Space could be scarce again as we get into 2025 and 2026. Overall rent indices have already begun to move up after slowing dramatically in 2023.

Why can’t we just convert more office space into affordable housing? The tradeoff is hard to make economically feasible, given the costs. Office spaces lack the basic amenities needed for housing, including things like plumbing for kitchens and baths. Many have hefty tax consequences along with all the other zoning and regulations required to convert to residential.

Regional differences . The South has long been the dominant player in construction markets, as they have the easiest permitting process and an abundance of land. (The South includes Texas in the official statistics.) The move from colder climates to warmer winter climates, notably by retirees, has combined with the migration of younger professionals to the region.

The West and Midwest are expected to gain some ground in the year to come. The largest constraints on land are in the Northeast, which has limited its recovery. Permits in the Northeast have not moved much in recent years and are expected to remain subdued.

Moderating price pressures

Home prices are forecast to continue rising, but at a slower pace in 2024. First-time buyers are expected to put a cap on how much higher homes appreciate. Much depends on the extent to which listings rise.

Another hurdle is the stock of housing, which has aged and fallen into disrepair. The median age of existing homes is 40 years old, nearly a decade older than the median age of homes going into the housing bust.

Fewer owners repaired and upgraded their homes after home values plummeted. Homeowners who age in place are often constrained by low fixed incomes. Both trends have left us with fewer move-in ready homes.

Other costs that could put a damper on the price that buyers are willing to pay include real estate taxes and insurance. Retirees can get taxes capped but younger homeowners cannot. Homeowners’ insurance has skyrocketed or disappeared entirely. Even those who paid off their mortgages or locked into ultralow rates are struggling with escalating expenses.

Lenders are starting to take note and, much like insurers, are likely to pull out of some of the riskiest areas. That will further limit access to affordable housing. Some of the cheapest homes have the highest exposure to climate change.

The number of overvalued markets according to Moody’s has dipped over the last year, as prices in some of the hottest pandemic markets moderated. However, affordability remains low across much of the nation.

Over the next year, prices are expected to rise in the Midwest and parts of the Northeast, such as New York and Pennsylvania. Georgia, Alabama and Louisiana are expected to also see increases. The soft spots are expected to be Arizona, Colorado, Idaho and Utah – those areas saw outsized gains earlier in the recovery

Implications for inflation

Changes in shelter costs tend to show up with a lag, as it takes time for homes and leases to turn over. That is one reason that many expected overall inflation to further moderate in 2024. It is unclear if the slowdown we are seeing in rents and prices will be enough to accomplish that goal.

Prices in the services sector picked up at the start of the year. Medical costs and insurance premiums are only beginning to reflect the surge in demand and constraints due to staffing shortages.

A pickup in housing should spur spending on goods which could derail the drop in goods prices. Meanwhile supply chain fragility persists. The slowdown in traffic in the Panama and Suez Canals are two examples. The collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge, which carried 4,900 trucks per day, is another example - $28 billion in goods will need to be rerouted.

Chart 2 shows three scenarios for core PCE inflation, the Fed’s favored measure. Comparisons in the back half of the year get harder when measured on a year-over-year basis, due to the sharp deceleration we saw in price levels in the second half of 2023. The trajectory underscores the challenges that the Fed faces. The base case suggests that inflation will cool but less so than a month ago.

Risks.  The forecast only has modest increases in energy prices. A surge in oil prices can’t be ruled out, given escalating tensions in Ukraine and the Middle East.

Chart 2: Shelter inflation a risk for back-half 2024

Core PCE, fourth quarter over fourth quarter

A slower glide path for the Fed

Participants in the March Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting were closer than many realized to two instead of three cuts for the year; 9 of 19 participants forecast two cuts or less. We now expect only two rate cuts in 2024.

The next forecast is due in June but the players around the table will shift. President Loretta Mester of the Cleveland Fed, who favored waiting on cuts, is retiring. President Alberto Musalem of the St. Louis Fed starts in April and will attend his first official meeting in May. He is not a voting member of the FOMC this year.

Rate cuts for 2025 were also scaled back. The Fed is using a slower glide path to enable supply more time to catch up with demand. That is an especially heavy lift in the housing market, given how large the gab between supply and demand remains.

Risks . The Fed is the world’s most influential central bank. Emerging markets are particularly sensitive to the Fed’s decisions. The slower glide path may cause them to delay their own cuts. If emerging market central banks cut too fast, then their currencies may rapidly depreciate. That could raise their import prices and debt servicing costs. The more the Fed delays rate cuts, the more downward pressure that puts their currencies, inflation and the costs of servicing the debt. That could delay rate cuts and up the risk of a larger financial crisis.

Bottom Line

The economy has made great strides since the depths of the COVID-recession, but gains remain uneven. Scarcities in the housing market persist, despite some catch-up in construction in recent years. My childhood home was not much by today’s standards. It didn’t need to be; it represented the first rung on the ladder to building wealth for a young family that had little.

That is all millennials and those behind them want, a chance at achieving that same dream. The goal is to allow some catch-up for those still feeling left behind. Even a small drop in rates represents a step in that direction.

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