multivariate index for monitoring drought (case study northeastern of iraq)

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Drought Monitoring Using the Multivariate Standardized Precipitation Index (MSPI)

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• Javad Bazrafshan
• Somayeh Hejabi
• Jaber Rahimi

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Advancing scientific understanding of climate, improving society’s ability to plan and respond

Advancing Drought Monitoring and Prediction Using a Multi-Index Multivariate Framework

• Year Funded: 2014
• Principal Investigators: AghaKouchak, Amir (University of California, Irvine)
• Co-Principal Investigators: Mark Svoboda (National Drought Mitigation Center, University of Nebraska-Lincoln), Andy Wood (NCAR)
• Program: MAPP Funded Project
• Drought Task Force (2020-2023)

Studies of the suitability of drought indices for different applications indicate that a thorough depiction of drought events requires joint analysis of the covariation of multiple indicators such as rainfall, runoff and soil moisture conditions. However, current approaches do not objectively combine separate indicators into an overall assessment of drought for managing water resources and assessing impacts of climate variability. To address this need, we propose to: – Expand, test and implement a multivariate drought analysis framework for combining multiple drought indicators probabilistically to improve the understanding of drought onset, development and termination. Indicators include precipitation, soil moisture and runoff, which are used in describing multiple drought aspects (meteorological, agricultural, hydrological). – Assess the proposed multi-index approach as applied to the detection of drought characteristics such as onset, development and termination, and contrast performance with univariate approaches or subjective combinations. – Diagnose physical underpinnings of variations in multivariate index performance for different droughts, with emphasis on the MAPP Drought Task Force (DTF) case studies. The index responds to covariation in water stress for multiple indices, and thus distinguishes false wet/dry signals by individual drought indicators. – Use the proposed multivariate multi-index approach to assess 1-9 months drought predictions using seasonal forecast datasets (primarily from CFSv2 and NMME). – Support the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) and the United States Drought Monitor (USDM), focusing both nationwide and with emphasis on prediction of severe droughts in the southwestern U.S. and associated decision support.

The proposed project coordinates with the National Drought Mitigation Center and the California Dept. of Water Resources, and with technical linkages to the NOAA/NCEP and the DTF. The proposed work follows the capability assessment protocol introduced by the DTF, and addresses two primary objectives of the MAPP-Drought program: (a) improving methodologies for global to regional-scale analysis and predictions and (b) developing integrated assessment and prediction capabilities relevant to decision makers, and particularly the opportunity to integrate diverse data sources. The project goals also support NOAA’s strategic objectives in the climate area, namely, “to identify causes and effects of [changes in climate variability and their impacts], produce accurate predictions, identify risks and vulnerabilities, and inform decisions”.

Comparison of Empirical Copula-Based Joint Deficit Index (JDI) and Multivariate Standardized Precipitation Index (MSPI) for Drought Monitoring in Iran

• Published: 18 January 2015
• Volume 29 , pages 2027–2044, ( 2015 )

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• Javad Bazrafshan 1 ,
• Mehdi Nadi 1 &
• Khalil Ghorbani 2  

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Multi-index drought indices are based on a combination of single drought indices and able to monitor the overall status of drought in a certain location. The aim of the present paper is to compare two recently developed multi-index drought indices, i.e., Joint Deficit Index (JDI) and Multivariate Standardized Precipitation Index (MSPI) under different climatic conditions of Iran. Although these drought indices are calculated using different statistical methods, they need twelve modified Standardized Precipitation Index (SPImod) corresponding to 12 time windows from 1 to 12 months as the input variables. In this study, these indices were calculated using the monthly precipitation data of 42 weather stations representing diverse climates of Iran during the period of 1966–2010. JDI and MSPI were compared from different viewpoints including temporal behavior, the relationship between drought severity and duration and frequencies of drought classes. The results showed that both indices have a similar trend of drought severity at all stations. Unlike the MSPI, the JDI faced two substantial problems in all stations of interest: 1) The lowest value of the JDI time series was frequently repeated in different parts of its time series, 2) The JDI was not able to identify the peak of drought severity during the critical drought periods. While the JDI could not identify the extreme (at about all stations) and very severe (at one third of stations) drought classes, the observed frequencies of the MSPI’s drought classes successfully matched the corresponding expected frequencies. The obtained results clearly indicate the superiority of the MSPI for monitoring overall status of droughts in different climatic conditions of Iran in comparison to the JDI.

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Multivariate index for monitoring drought (case study, Northeastern of Iraq)

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Department of Irrigation and Reclamation Engineering, University College of Agriculture and Natural Resources, University of Tehran, P.O. Box 4111, Karaj, 31587-77871, Iran

Javad Bazrafshan & Mehdi Nadi

Water Engineering Department, University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources, Gorgan, Iran

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Bazrafshan, J., Nadi, M. & Ghorbani, K. Comparison of Empirical Copula-Based Joint Deficit Index (JDI) and Multivariate Standardized Precipitation Index (MSPI) for Drought Monitoring in Iran. Water Resour Manage 29 , 2027–2044 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-015-0926-x

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Received : 15 February 2014

Accepted : 09 January 2015

Published : 18 January 2015

Issue Date : April 2015

DOI : https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-015-0926-x

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