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Pakistan Must Adapt to Climate Change. But Who Will Help Us?

T he record-breaking mega-flood in August 2022 that impacted 33 million people in Pakistan brought home to the world the urgency and scale of the climate crisis afflicting developing countries. At the 27th United Nations Climate Change conference (COP 27), it triggered widespread worry among other countries about the state of preparedness many will have to gear up to—even if, like Pakistan, they remain negligible emitters of the greenhouse gases. In 2022, Pakistan’s pavilion at Sharm-al-Shaikh positioned not just the global connectedness of the crisis by pointing out that “what goes on in Pakistan will not stay in Pakistan,” it also became the hub of the climate finance deficits that are growing exponentially in inverse proportion to global emissions. This has led, in part, to the creation of the Loss and Damage (L&D) fund at the end of the conference.

Yet as G20’s energy ministers remained unable to agree on a roadmap to reduce emissions by July 2023 (even as COP28 approaches) the realization set in that many of us will remain in the frontline of the burn. Pakistan has been home for three successive years where on at least one day temperatures reached 53°C (127.4°F). The hope that we were working with needed a home-grown plan. As heatwaves coupled with slow global action transformed the earth into a red planet in the summer of 2023, Pakistan launched a National Adaptation Plan in July to chart a strategic whole-of government approach with a framework toolkit that allows it to protect its population.

For instance, the province of Sindh, which to this day stands transformed by the 2022 deluge, and recently saw evacuations in the coastal areas from cyclonic activity in a warming Arabian Sea, began its rehabilitation process by transferring new land titles to the women of afflicted households. In all such crises, the most vulnerable always remain the poorest, the women and children, impacted disproportionately by multiple crises of food insecurity, displacement, and disease.

That said, while Sindh is struggling to cope with a cascade of disasters, it will need not just the National Adaptation Plan, but the resources to transform municipal, rural, and agri-water governance for the dangerous decade ahead—all of which needs time, capacity, and liquidity. Similarly, the province of Balochistan has already declared a flood emergency, while the northern province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa is impacted too by a gathering storm.

Read More: ‘I Lost My Son in This Water a Few Days Ago.’ Photos of Pakistan’s Catastrophic Flooding

For countries drowning in extreme weather, exogenous shocks, and high public debt, where will this money come from? Especially in the amount that the World Bank in its 2022 Country Climate and Development Report calculated for Pakistan: a staggering $348 billion by 2030. This is just the number to stay resilient—to keep our heads above water and build sustainability into a climate-adaptive future. All this while a summer of fresh flooding and melting glaciers redefines our lives, our social and economic experiences, into a lifelong struggle to rebuild with resilience while we fight the climate devastations wreaking havoc again.

Who is coming to the rescue of such countries? While U.N. has been in the frontline of immediate relief, even its flash appeals globally remain under-funded. Structural reforms involve pain. We are willing to undergo more pain, especially for enabling resilience, but some amount of change has to come from the Bretton Woods system—the monetary management structure that controls the U.S., Canada, Australia, Western Europe, and Japan—meant to lead the world out of egregious inequality and now climate distress. The financing gap to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in developing countries has enlarged from $2.5 trillion in 2019 to $4.2 trillion in 2023. Add to it the cost of realizing climate goals, and the amount reaches a whopping $5.2 trillion annually .

Our National Adaption Plan (NAP) is designed to build climate-adaptation goals into every aspect of development planning. The international financial system must do the same. As we approach COP 28, the Global Goal on Adaptation remains under-capitalized, while the L&D fund is yet to start functioning. The U.N. Secretary General António Guterres made detailed recommendations in a press conference on July 27 that countries must operationalize and scale up the funding of renewables. Donor countries have been bilaterally supportive but they too need to fulfill their commitment to provide 0.7% of their Gross National Income as development assistance. Multilateral Development Banks should be recapitalized and be enabled to provide portfolio and budgetary support to developing countries, rather than project finance only. They should vastly expand grant and concessional lending to developing countries, enhance the vote and the voice of the developing countries in both International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank, and link the distribution of new IMF SDRs to development and climate goals.

The transition to a sustainable global economy will require an investment of around $1.5 trillion each year in the developing countries. Business as usual will certainly not work. A large part of this funding pool will have to come from the private sector, which will need new structural incentives to bring their leverage and capital to the business of bending development history. Vulnerable countries cannot attract investment in times of epochal climate distress, but they do need more than band-aid financing. We now need transformational milestones to building global consensus for a financing architecture that can face the 21st century’s rapidly changing conditions that challenge resilience while fueling crippling inequalities.

Critical assistance for the most climate vulnerable countries must not further burden the poor. Actions will be as important as pledges and plans at this point. A real message of change from global leaders would contribute substantially to the success of the forthcoming SDG Summit in September and COP28 in December, and restore trust in global cooperation and international solidarity. Our people are looking to us with renewed hope for action. We must not fail them.

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Daily Times

Your right to know Monday, April 01, 2024

Perspectives

Climate change: causes, outcomes in Pakistan and a way forward

September 24, 2019

Climate change can generally be defined as a change in global or regional climate patterns. In particular, it is the change apparent from the mid-to-late 20th century onwards, and attributed largely to the increased levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide produced by the use of fossil fuels. The Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), in its Article 1, defines climate change as: “A change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods.”

Human activities are the major cause of climate change. The foremost cause is global warming. Burning fossil fuels, such as coal and oil, has increased the concentration of carbon dioxide. Due to expansion of the greenhouse effect, global warming has risen. As per this phenomenon, gases such as water vapors, carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and chlorofluorocarbons in the our atmosphere prevents the heat to leave the earth’s atmosphere; resultantly, the ozone layer depletes and the temperature rises.

In its Fifth Assessment Report, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concluded that there is a more than 95 percent probability that human activities over the past 50 years have warmed our planet. Industrial activities that our modern civilisation depends upon have raised atmospheric carbon dioxide levels from 280 parts per million to 400 parts per million in the last 150 years. The panel also concluded there is a better than 95 percent probability that human-produced greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide have caused much of the observed increase in earth’s temperatures over the past 50 years. About half of the CO2 emissions, between 1750 and 2010, have occurred in the last 40 years.

Deforestation and increase in the use of chemicals in domestic and agriculture life is another reason of climate change. Deforestation is the second leading cause of global warming and produces about 24 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions. Scientists say that deforestation in tropical rainforests adds more carbon dioxide to the atmosphere than the sum total of all the cars and trucks on the world’s roads.

The surge in the uses of chemicals in domestic as well as in agriculture, in the shape of fertilisers, also plays its role in climate change. The high rate of application of nitrogen-rich fertilisers has effects on the heat storage of cropland (nitrogen oxides have 300 times more heat-trapping capacity per unit of volume than carbon dioxide) and the run-off of excess fertilizers creates ‘dead zones’ in our oceans. In addition to these effects, high nitrate levels in groundwater due to over fertilization are cause for concern for human health.

These causes resulted in climate change and have a perilous aftermath. In this regard, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was created by the United Nations Environment Programme (UN Environment) and the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) in 1988. It now engages with 195 member countries, which provides policymakers with regular scientific assessments on climate change, its implications and potential future risks, as well as to put forward adaptation and mitigation options.

The foremost hazardous evidence is the rise of carbon dioxide in out atmosphere. As per NASA’s scientific evidence, for a millennium, the level of carbon dioxide (parts per million) was below 300, which started to rise since 1950, and is now above 400. Secondly, as per NASA’s evidence, the planet’s average surface temperature has risen about 1.62 degrees Fahrenheit (0.9 degrees Celsius) since the late 19th century, a change driven largely by increased carbon dioxide and other human-made emissions into the atmosphere. Most of the warming occurred in the past 35 years, with the five warmest years on record taking place since 2010. This is also established by the United Nations’ report, prepared by the World Meteorological Organisation, on September 22, 2019. It states that the period “is currently estimated to be 1.1 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial era of 1850-1900, and 0.2 degrees Celsius warmer than 2011-2015”.

Thirdly, the oceans are getting warmer, and ice sheets are shrinking. As per NASA, the oceans have absorbed much of this increased heat, with the top 700 meters (about 2,300 feet) of ocean showing warming of more than 0.4 degrees Fahrenheit since 1969. The Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets have decreased and have lost an average of 286 billion tons of ice per year between 1993 and 2016, while Antarctica lost about 127 billion tons of ice per year during the same time period. The rate of Antarctica ice mass loss has tripled in the last decade.

Fourthly, the glaciers are melting and sea level is rising. Around the globe, the glaciers are retreating including in the Alps, Himalayas, Andes, Rockies, Alaska and Africa. The global sea level rose about eight inches in the last century. The rate in the last two decades, however, is nearly double that of the last century and is accelerating slightly every year.

There are other drastic evidences of climate change. Arctic sea ice is declining rapidly. Disturbed rainfalls and extreme weather events have increased. Also, the ocean acidification, which has increased by about 30 percent since the Industrial Revolution, is another evidence of climate change. It also has a negative impact on crop yield productions. The direct impact on the lives of humans is on the vulnerable and the marginalised segment of society.

As per NASA, 97 percent of climate scientists agree that climate-warming trends over the past century are very likely due to human activities

As per IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, numerous risks are involved that raise concern. These include risk of death, injuries, health or disturbed livelihoods due to storms, flooding and sea-level rise. The risk in water supply, supply of electricity and emergency situations are also there. The foremost risk is food insecurity due to droughts, flooding, and precipitation variability. There is the risk to lose marine and coastal ecosystems and biodiversity as well.

Although Pakistan is not much contributing in global warming and climate change, yet it is the seventh most affected country. The Global Change Impact Studies Centre of Pakistan shows that the mean annual temperature has increased in the recent past with greater increase in Sindh and Balochistan. During the last century, the average temperature over Pakistan has increased by 0.6°C, which is in conformity with the increase of the average global temperature. Future climate change projections, based on all four IPCC-AR5 RCPs scenarios, show that the average rise in temperature over Pakistan, by the end of the century, will be about 1°C higher compared to the global average. This increase, particularly in temperature, is associated with a number of adverse impacts, including the increasing frequency of extreme events (floods, droughts, heat waves, and cyclonic activity), steady regression of most glaciers (except a small minority in the Karakorum Range) that supply the bulk of the country’s water supply and changes in the rainfall patterns.

Pakistan’s water cycle is the primary affected area of climate change. Agriculture is one of the major sectors likely to be adversely affected by climate change. Climate change can disrupt food availability, reduce access to food, and affect food quality. Projected increases in temperatures, changes in precipitation patterns, changes in extreme weather events, and reductions in water availability may all result in reduced agricultural productivity. Seasonal smog is also due to climate change and pollution.

Pakistan has also suffered economically due to climate change. According to experts, Pakistan has faced around 150 freak weather incidents as a result of climate change in the past 20 years: flash floods, smog in winter, forest fires in summer, melting glaciers, freaky heatwaves, landslides, displaced population. During the floods in 2010-11, almost 10 percent of Pakistan’s population was displaced in two provinces, one in the north and another in the south. Last year, the cost of extreme weather as a consequence of climate change was listed at $384 million; in the past 20 years, there has been a cost of almost two billion dollars to the national economy because of the ravages of climate change.

The writing is on the wall. The world is responding to the danger now. Greta Thunberg, a teenage Swedish environment activist, shookup the top leaders with a Global Climate Strike call on September 20, 2019, through which the protest was recorded in around 150 countries, in more than 4,500 places.

The UN has shown its commitment to fight in this noble cause. There are various agreements and protocols for climate change. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is the main international agreement on climate action. It was one of the three conventions adopted at the Rio Earth Summit in 1992. To date, it has been ratified by 195 countries. It started as a way for countries to work together to limit global temperature increases and climate change, and to cope with their impacts.

In the mid-1990s, the UNFCCC signatories realised that stronger provisions were needed to reduce emissions. In this regard, they agreed to the Kyoto Protocol in 1997, which introduced legally binding emission reduction targets for developed countries. Next comes the Paris Agreement; the Paris climate conference took place from November 30 to December 11, 2015. On December 12, the parties reached a new global agreement on climate change. The agreement presents a balanced outcome with an action plan to limit global warming ‘well below’ two degree Celsius. There is also the Montreal Protocol 1987, which is a global agreement to protect the stratospheric ozone layer by phasing out the production and consumption of ozone-depleting substances. There is also the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) 1994 to combat desertification and mitigate the effects of drought in countries experiencing serious drought/ desertification.

What requires is that we must change course by 2020, as the UN Secretary General Antonio Guterreshas said; we risk missing the point where we can avoid the “disastrous consequences for people and all the natural systems that sustain us.”

In this regard, there are the following suggestions to tackle global warming. Dramatically reducing our use of fossil fuels, especially carbon-intensive coal, is essential to tackle climate change. There are many ways to begin this process. Key action steps include: not building any new coal-burning power plants, initiating a phased shutdown of coal plants starting with the oldest and dirtiest, and capturing and storing carbon emissions from power plants. While it may sound like science fiction, the technology exists to store carbon emissions underground.

Taken together with the tropical deforestation, emissions from agriculture represent nearly 30 percent of the world’s heat-trapping emissions. We can fight global warming by reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation and by making our food production practices more sustainable.

Using alternative sources of energy is more efficient and meets the problem of global warming. Energy producing from solar, wind, tidal, and biomass are more clean and renewable. There are least effects if we produce electricity from the alternative sources of energy. Nuclear power results in a few global warming emissions; an increased share of nuclear power in the energy mix could help reduce global warming.

A successful global compact on climate change must include financial assistance from richer countries to poorer countries to help make the transition to low-carbon development pathways and to help adapt to the impacts of climate change. The energy used to power, heat, and cool our homes, businesses, and industries are the single largest contributor to global warming. Energy efficiency technologies are the dire need of the hour.

Transportation sector’s emissions have increased at a faster rate than any other energy-usingsector over the past decade. For this, efficient fuel consumption modes of transport, and switching to low-carbon fuels are the requirement of time.

In a nutshell, we must develop a two-pronged approach: firstly, we must reduce emissions and stabilise the levels of greenhouse gasses in our atmosphere; secondly, we must adapt climate-friendly lifestyles and pursue the principles of sustainable economic growth.

Although Pakistan is facing environmental challenges, which include climate change impacts, loss of biological diversity, deforestation and degradation of air and water quality, Pakistan is trying to respond well. Because of the deteriorating economy, the country could not do much. But still, the present government has launched the Ten Billion Trees Tsunami Programme to lead the country towards aiming at revival of forestry and control air, weather, wildlife, forestation, watershed management and soil conservation to combat the negative impacts of climate change. Pakistan is amongst the pioneers who have established a climate ministry. The country has also launched the Climate Change Policy 2012. The National Climate Change Policy comprehensively addresses all possible challenges of climate change and provides a foundational framework to tackle the problem. But Pakistan alone cannot do it. It is a global issue. The whole of the world’s future is at stake.

It is time that the United Nations, along with all 195 countries, do not let the grass grow under its feet and act now to save the mother earth.

The writer is an advocate of the High Court and teaches law

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Pakistan Urgently Needs Significant Investments in Climate Resilience to Secure its Economy and Reduce Poverty

ISLAMABAD, November 10, 2022 —This year’s heatwave and devastating floods are a reminder that climate change-induced disasters can significantly set back Pakistan’s development ambitions and its ability to reduce poverty. These disasters have caused more than 1,700 deaths and displaced more than 8 million people. The damage to infrastructure, assets, crops, and livestock has also been massive, with more than $30 billion in damages and economic losses. The World Bank Group’s Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) for Pakistan released today concludes that the country needs fundamental shifts in its development path and policies, requiring substantial investments in people-centric climate adaptation and resilience, that will require international support.

“The recent flooding and humanitarian crisis provide a wake-up call for urgent action to prevent further devastation to the people of Pakistan and its economy due to climate change,” said Martin Raiser, World Bank Vice President for South Asia. “Accelerated climate actions can protect the economy from shocks and secure more sustainable and inclusive growth in Pakistan.”

The CCDR notes that the combined risks of extreme climate-related events, environmental degradation, and air pollution are projected to reduce Pakistan’s GDP by at least 18 to 20% by 2050. This will stall progress on economic development and poverty reduction.

“If we want to tackle climate change, we need to prioritize investing in adaptation to help prepare Pakistan for future climate-related calamities, which are growing in frequency and intensity,” said Hela Cheikhrouhou, IFC Regional Vice President for Middle East, Central Asia, Türkiye, Afghanistan and Pakistan . “ With the right policy frameworks, Pakistan has the opportunity to attract private investment to build its resilience, particularly in sectors such as water management, agriculture, urban infrastructure, municipal services, and housing.”

To improve adaptation to climate change and avoid high costs, the report recommends five priority transitions:

1. Transforming the Agri-Food System: Productivity in the agri-food system – the largest employer, particularly for poor and vulnerable households – has been plummeting due to the degradation of land, overuse of chemical inputs and water, and lack of research. And yields are projected to drop another 50% by 2050. To bolster rural incomes and strengthen food and water security, Pakistan needs to repurpose environmentally damaging subsidies, promote climate-smart and regenerative agriculture and livestock systems, and prioritize ecosystem restoration.

2. Building Resilient and Livable Cities: Pakistan’s population living in urban areas, already highly exposed to pollution and climate change, will increase from 37% in 2020 to 60% in 2050. To ensure cities become more liveable, urgent reforms are needed for more integrated land use planning and increased investments in municipal services and in energy efficiency and clean transportation. To this end, strong municipal governments, and the expansion of city finances via property taxation are critical.

3. Accelerating a Just Transition to Sustainable Energy and Low-carbon Transport: The energy sector is a critical enabler of economic development and poverty reduction. However, it is a huge drain on public finances and foreign exchange reserves and a major contributor to GHG emissions. Pakistan must prioritize reducing the cost of generation including through energy efficiency, ensuring cost-reflective tariffs and improved targeting of subsidies, while addressing technical and collection losses in transmission and distribution. Scaled-up investment in mass transit can avoid locking in highly polluting modes of transport.

4. Strengthening Human Capital to Achieve Sustained and Equitable Development and Climate Resilience: To address its human capital crisis, Pakistan needs to improve the management of water, sanitation, and hygiene, which is the main driver of child stunting, and reduce high fertility rates. Pakistan should also ensure universal access to quality education and expand its social-protection system by improving benefits, particularly for those at the highest risk.

5. Aligning Financing Policies, Incentives, and Institutions to Support Scale-up of Climate Actions: Implementing these policies and executing a climate-resilient and low-carbon development agenda will require total investment needs that amount to around 10% of the cumulative GDP up to 2030. Accelerating the ongoing reforms to expand domestic revenue mobilization, including raising new municipal and property taxes, as well as improving efficiency and targeting of subsidies for agriculture and energy while protecting the most vulnerable will help to finance a large part of the needed investments. Yet, this will not be enough. A comprehensive financing strategy, involving greater private sector involvement and significant international support will be essential to complement Pakistan’s own commitment towards resilient and inclusive development.

“Foreign private capital can play an important role in addressing the climate change challenges in Pakistan,”  said   Ethiopis Tafara, MIGA Vice President and Chief Risk, Legal and Administrative Officer.  “Sustaining flows of foreign direct investment that support climate mitigation and adaptation will contribute toward financing Pakistan’s low-carbon transition.”

Pakistan is not a significant contributor to global warming, but it is on a high-growth trajectory of carbon emissions linked to fossil fuel use. This is also a source of the country’s chronic fiscal stress and worsening air pollution. Therefore, climate actions that bring co-benefits to both adaptation and mitigation and contribute to improving development outcomes should have the highest priority.

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World Bank Group Country Climate and Development Reports

The World Bank Group’s Country Climate and Development Reports (CCDRs) are new core diagnostic reports that integrate climate change and development considerations. They will help countries prioritize the most impactful actions that can reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and boost adaptation, while delivering on broader development goals. CCDRs build on data and rigorous research and identify main pathways to reduce GHG emissions and climate vulnerabilities, including the costs and challenges as well as benefits and opportunities from doing so. The reports suggest concrete, priority actions to support a low-carbon, resilient transition. As public documents, CCDRs aim to inform governments, citizens, the private sector, and development partners, and enable engagement with the development and climate agenda. CCDRs will feed into other core Bank Group diagnostics, country engagements and operations, and help attract funding and direct financing for high-impact climate action.

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United States Institute of Peace

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Pakistan’s Climate Challenges Pose a National Security Emergency

A whole-of-government approach is needed now before climate change exacerbates conflict in the country.

Thursday, July 7, 2022 / By: Jumaina Siddiqui

Publication Type: Analysis

Pakistan is in the midst of a terrible heatwave , with the temperatures in parts of the country exceeding 120 F. April was the hottest month in the past 61 years, until May came along and saw warmer temperatures. At least 65 people have reportedly died due to the heatwave, but the actual numbers are certainly higher, and it’s caused massive flooding and infrastructure damage in Gilgit-Baltistan, water shortages in Karachi and broader Sindh province, and placed greater demands on the country’s weak electrical grid. Despite monsoon rains beginning in late June — causing at least 77 deaths — many parts of the country still swelter. Pakistan should treat these climate disasters as a full-fledged national security emergency before they stoke conflict that adds further stress amid the country’s other numerous challenges.

Climate Challenges Could Stoke Conflict

For the past 20 years, Pakistan has consistently ranked among the top 10 most vulnerable countries on the Climate Risk Index, with 10,000 fatalities due to climate-related disasters and financial losses amounting to about $4 billion from 173 extreme weather events. These challenges threaten to spark climate-related conflict over resources — such as water — that have become scarce due to climate change impacts. Climate-related disasters like floods, heatwaves or tsunamis can also exacerbate tensions among groups who already have a history of conflict. Any of these scenarios would be a serious threat to Pakistan and have serious ramifications for any government in the immediate aftermath of a climate disaster or as part of efforts to mitigate future disasters.

This year’s heatwave further exacerbated food insecurity, which can undermine peace and stability, according to the United Nations. Scorching temperatures have damaged entire orchards and hurt wheat production across Pakistan, adversely impacting the livelihoods of many small farmers and rendering formerly arable land unusable for agriculture in some parts of the country. Already facing wheat shortages due to Russia’s war in Ukraine, Pakistan’s domestic wheat production this year will be reduced by 10% .

During Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari’s visit to the United States to attend a United Nations meeting on food security, he highlighted that the country is under threat of food, water and energy insecurity. Unfortunately, it is not just a threat anymore but a reality for Pakistan. Combined with soaring inflation and the country’s continued political instability, this is a recipe for disaster. All these trends are potential catalysts that could trigger climate-induced migration from rural areas to urban centers as Pakistanis seek employment and stable living conditions. This puts an additional strain on massive cities and urban infrastructure that already cannot manage their current population levels.

A Mixed Response

Pakistan’s Supreme Court has also taken notice of Pakistan’s climate change vulnerabilities. In a recent decision, the court noted that that in urban areas in particular, relevant government authorities should take into consideration “adaptation, climate resiliency and sustainability…[as] they are essential to actualize the fundamental rights of the people.”

While some subnational government agencies have been more effective in preparing for climate-related disasters, other have not. In Gilgit Baltistan, the heatwave caused a massive glacial flood, but thanks to continuous monitoring by the relevant local government authorities, people living in vulnerable locations were relocated to safer places before the floods. After the 2020 floods in Karachi, the provincial government decided to address the causes that lead to the severe flooding after the waters subsided. However, their heavy-handed actions — such as tearing down settlements along the nalas, or waterways, that should have drained the flood waters without considering proper plans to resettle or adequately compensate those displaced from the settlements — led to a number of protests from both communities and civil society activists.

It took this heatwave for the Sindh government to notice and take action against the water mafias controlling the city, even though this has been a problem for a decade or more. The water issue connects to the larger issue of natural resource usage and extraction throughout Pakistan, in particular the availability of water, whether it is for agricultural purposes or for consumption. The current heatwave has created an acute water crisis in Sindh, leading to inter-provincial tensions with Punjab — and it’s unclear if there is a resolution in sight .

Pakistan has tried to play a significant role on the international stage, participating in COP26 and signing the global methane pledge. The country is one of the world’s major methane emitters , predominately through its agricultural sector. How this commitment will impact this sector more broadly remains to be seen, especially as Pakistan seeks international financing to meet this commitment. While climate-smart agricultural practices generally save money in the long run, it is important to understand how these changes would impact large-scale farmers and their workers, the latter of whom are one of the most economically disadvantaged groups in country. 

The previous Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) government had a strong advocate in Malik Amin Aslam, who served as the special advisor to the prime minster on climate change. The PTI government made significant strides in their efforts to mitigate and adapt to the effects of climate change such as committing to having 60% of energy coming from “clean” sources and to having electric vehicles making up 30% of the market by 2030.

The current coalition government, led by the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), has smartly continued the trend of strong leadership on climate change by appointing Senator Sherry Rehman , a member of the Pakistan Peoples Party, as minster for climate change. While leadership on this issue is imperative, it is equally important that there is a tangible and sustained collaboration and coordination between the national and provincial governments to develop a roadmap to address the impacts of climate change on the country. Because of devolution in Pakistan, issues like water, food and agriculture, and environment are ones where the provinces have the authority to pass governing legislation, while climate change is a federal issue. This disconnect must be resolved through a more robust system for interprovincial coordination. 

What Pakistan Needs

The PML-N government’s announcement to set up a climate change task force in response to the heatwave is a step in the right direction. But if Pakistan is serious about tackling climate change and investing in mitigation and adaption efforts, what is needed is an overarching framework to coordinate this response. One recent model to look to is Pakistan’s National Command and Operation Center (NCOC), which led the country’s COVID-19 response. A climate-focused NCOC would ensure that sufficient resources are allocated to address the impacts of climate change on the country and appropriate coordination takes place that builds political consensus. This would require relevant provincial and national bodies to come together to work develop a common action plan to address the internal impacts of climate change. Furthermore, the NCOC would spearhead the implementation  of Pakistan’s National Determined Contributions under the Paris Accords because some of these efforts would need provincial buy-in.   

It is unclear if Pakistan’s new climate change task force will carry the same weight as the COVID-19 NCOC. But if it is to succeed, then learning from the successes and failures of the NCOC model is imperative. The COVID-19 NCOC took a whole-of-government approach to tackle the crisis head on. In the beginning there was significant tension between the federal and provincial governments on measures such as the timing and scope of lockdowns and whether provinces had the legal mandate to dictate how businesses functioned during the pandemic. However, in the interest of combatting the pandemic, a delicate understanding between and cooperation among political parties in power in different provinces did eventually occur. 

National and provincial governments are working in lockstep right when it comes to energy conservation. But this cooperation will need to be sustained over the long haul. Unlike COVID-19 where we have vaccines and other mitigation tools, climate change is a significantly more complex challenge that will require long-term coordination and commitment. Almost PKR 10 billion (approximately $50 million) has been allocated to the Ministry of Climate Change under the 2022-23 national budget, a decrease from the PKR 14 billion in the 2021-22 national budget. This change is likely due to the economic situation in the country, but still shows a commitment to the issue and continuity between governments as the PTI government’s signature “10 Billion Tree Tsunami” project received an earmark. 

Alongside these domestic efforts, both the United States and Pakistan should hold a second meeting of the U.S.-Pakistan Climate and Environment Working Group, following the first meeting held in September 2021. This working group could serve as the springboard to begin repairing and resetting the tenuous U.S.-Pakistan relationship as addressing climate change and promoting regional stability is in the interest of both nations.   

All mainstream political parties agree that climate change is threat to Pakistan’s social and economic stability. Addressing climate change in Pakistan truly requires a “ war-footing ” and a whole-of-government approach. Otherwise, the consequences of inaction or improper action could foster greater turmoil and strife for all levels of Pakistani society. 

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As Fragile Kashmir Cease-Fire Turns Three, Here’s How to Keep it Alive

Wednesday, February 21, 2024

By: Christopher Clary

At midnight on the night of February 24-25, 2021, India and Pakistan reinstated a cease-fire that covered their security forces operating “along the Line of Control (LOC) and all other sectors” in Kashmir, the disputed territory that has been at the center of the India-Pakistan conflict since 1947. While the third anniversary of that agreement is a notable landmark in the history of India-Pakistan cease-fires, the 2021 cease-fire is fragile and needs bolstering to be maintained.

Type: Analysis

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Understanding Pakistan’s Election Results

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Days after Pakistan’s February 8 general election, the Election Commission of Pakistan released the official results confirming a major political upset. Contrary to what most political pundits and observers had predicted, independents aligned with former Prime Minister Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) won the most seats at the national level, followed by former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) and the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM). No party won an absolute majority needed to form a government on its own. The resultant uncertainty means the United States may have to contend with a government that is more focused on navigating internal politics and less so on addressing strategic challenges.

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Monday, February 12, 2024

By: Tamanna Salikuddin

Surprisingly, candidates aligned with former Prime Minister Imran Khan won the most seats in Pakistan’s elections. But while voters “have shown their faith in democracy,” the lack of a strong mandate for any specific leader or institution “doesn’t necessarily bode well for [Pakistan’s] stability,” says USIP’s Tamanna Salikuddin.

Type: Podcast

The 2021 India-Pakistan Ceasefire: Origins, Prospects, and Lessons Learned

Tuesday, February 6, 2024

The February 2021 ceasefire between India and Pakistan along the Line of Control in Kashmir has—despite occasional violations—turned into one of the longest-lasting in the countries’ 75-year shared history. Yet, as Christopher Clary writes, the ceasefire remains vulnerable to shocks from terrorist attacks, changes in leadership, and shifting regional relations. With the ceasefire approaching its third anniversary, Clary’s report examines the factors that have allowed it to succeed, signs that it may be fraying, and steps that can be taken to sustain it.

Type: Special Report

Peace Processes

Pakistan’s ‘climate carnage beyond imagination’, UN chief tells General Assembly

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The people of Pakistan are the victims of “a grim calculus of climate injustice”, Secretary-General António Guterres told the UN General Assembly on Friday, reminding that while the country was responsible for less than one per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions, it is paying a “supersized price for man-made climate change”.

During a full session of the UN’s most representative body on the country’s devastating floods, he recalled last month’s visit where he saw “a level of climate carnage beyond imagination”.

He described flood waters covering a landmass three times the total area of his own country, Portugal, saying that many lost their homes, livestock, crops and “their futures”.

“ Lives were washed away ”, he spelled out.

"Today, it is Pakistan. Tomorrow it could be any of our countries" - @antonioguterres says climate chaos is knocking on everyone’s door and we must step up and answer the call for the people of #Pakistan UN Photo/Cia Pak https://t.co/pdUucOvnub United Nations Photo UN_Photo October 7, 2022

Worse to come

While the rains have ceased and water is beginning to recede, many areas in the south remain inundated and, with winter approaching, the situation is going from bad to worse.

“Pakistan is on the verge of a public health disaster”, warned the top UN official, pointing to threats of cholera, malaria and dengue fever claiming “far more lives than the floods”.

He painted a picture of nearly 1,500 devastated health facilities, two million damaged or destroyed homes and more than two million families without their possessions.

“ Many have no shelter as winter approaches ”.

Cascading calamities

At the same time, the scale of crop and livestock destruction is “creating a food crisis today and putting the planting season in jeopardy tomorrow”, continued Mr. Guterres.

“Severe hunger is spiking. Malnutrition among children and pregnant lactating women is rising. The number of children out of school is growing. Heartache and hardship – especially for women and girls – is mounting,” he elaborated.

Moreover, more than 15 million people could be pushed into poverty.

The effects of the floods will be felt not just for days or months but will linger in Pakistan for years to come. 

Massive support needed

Working with the Pakistan Government to convene a pledging conference to provide rehabilitation and reconstruction support, the UN chief urged donor countries, international organizations, the private sector and civil society to fully support these efforts.

Meanwhile, the Organization launched the Pakistan Floods Response Plan calling for $816 million – a surge of $656 million from the initial appeal – to respond to the most urgent needs through next May.

“But this pales in comparison to what is needed on every front – including food, water, sanitation…and health support”, said the Secretary-General.

G20’s ‘Moral responsibility’

As the calendar moves quickly to next UN climate conference ( COP27 ) in November, he said “the world is moving backwards [as] greenhouse gas emissions are rising along with climate calamities”. 

The UN chief stressed that COP 27 must be the place where these trends are reversed, serious action on loss and damage taken, and vital funding found for adaptation and resilience. 

Reminding that the G20 leading industrialized nations drive 80 per cent of climate-destroying emissions, he called it their “moral responsibility” to help Pakistan recover, adapt and build resilience to disasters “supercharged by the climate crisis”.

‘We must act now’

Noting that a third of Pakistan had been deluged , Mr. Guterres said that many island States face “the very real prospect of their entire homeland going under”. 

“Communities everywhere are looking down the barrel of climate-driven destruction,” he said. “We must act – and we must act now”. 

While this time it was Pakistan, the Secretary-General warned that tomorrow, “it could be any of our countries and our communities”.

“ Climate chaos is knocking on everyone’s door , right now,” he concluded. “This global crisis demands global solidarity and a global response”.

‘Litmus test of solidarity’

General Assembly President Csaba Kőrösi, underscored the importance of time, as “the price we are paying for delays rises each day”.

He said that today, the world faced a “litmus test of solidarity” in how Member States react to Pakistan’s plight.

“This is a tragedy of epic proportions” that requires “immediate interventions,” to prevent a “permanent emergency”.

Rebuilding together

The Assembly President highlighted the need to be better prepared as droughts and rains return.

More than ever, international relief efforts must focus on transformative solutions, he said. “ Adaptation and resilience are the seeds of sustainability ”.

Mr. Kőrösi urged the ambassadors to “make use of science and solidarity…to enhance our crisis management capacities…[to] rebuild together”.

Appealing for help

Meanwhile the UN refugee agency, UNHCR , is urgently seeking to help more than 650,000 refugees and members of their host communities affected by Pakistan’s calamitous flooding.

Noting that the scale of devastation is “hard to comprehend,” spokesperson Matthew Saltmarsh told a press briefing in Geneva on Friday that as Pakistan faces “a colossal challenge” to respond to the climate disaster, more support is need “for the country and its people, who have generously hosted Afghan refugees for over four decades”.

He reported on the latest estimates of the unprecedented rainfall and flooding, recorded at least 1,700 deaths; 12,800 injured, including at least 4,000 children; some 7.9 million displacements; and nearly 600,000 living in relief sites.

On ‘the frontlines’

“Pakistan is on the frontlines of the climate emergency,” said Mr. Saltmarsh.

UNHCR seeks additional funds to address immediate needs and assist in early recovery processes.

“It could take months for flood waters to recede in the hardest-hit areas, as fears rise over threats of waterborne diseases and the safety of millions of affected people, 70 per cent of whom are women and children,” he said, reminding that “ environmental sustainability will remain central to the response ”.

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• v.2022; 2022

Climate Change and Water Crises in Pakistan: Implications on Water Quality and Health Risks

Waseem ishaque.

1 Director Area Study Centre (China), NUML, Islamabad, Pakistan

Rida Tanvir

2 Department of International Relations, NUML, Islamabad, Pakistan

Mudassir Mukhtar

3 HoD Media and Communication Studies, NUML, Islamabad, Pakistan

Associated Data

The data used to support the findings of this study are included within this article.

Pakistan is vulnerable and most affected by adverse impacts of climate change. The study examines the impact of climate change on Pakistan during the year 2022, resulting into unprecedented heatwave and drought in summers followed by the abnormal rains and floods during monsoon season. Agriculture is the backbone of Pakistan's economy, which has been devastated by both drought and floods. While the flood water is gradually receding, the stagnant contaminated water is causing several health risks for the inhabitants. This research argues that water security is the emerging national security challenge for Pakistan. The article investigates the status of water availability vis-a-vis the burgeoning population, agriculture, and other uses of water. Impact of abnormal melting of glaciers, nonavailability of dams for storage of rainwater, and lack of smart means for agriculture water have been examined to empirically validate the arguments.

1. Introduction

Climate change has become international buzzword today and it is “no longer an unfamiliar term, which can be comprehended through personal knowledge, experience, and interactions” [ 1 ]. The phenomenon of climate change is largely attributed to human induced actions, more specifically in terms of emissions of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere [ 2 ]. Therefore, the phenomena of climate change are producing many threats on the Earth surface, ranging from droughts, heavy precipitation, and heatwaves to unprecedented tropical cyclones [ 3 ]. All these disasters have varying degree of impact over different geographical zones, resulting into environmental, health, economic, and social impact. There is no denying the fact that the world we live in today is far more vulnerable and affected by the negative impacts of climate change. However, the greatest health impact is being witnessed in the countries which have least share in greenhouse emissions [ 4 ]. There is also strong realization to attend to climate emergency, which is causing water security issues around the globe, and threatens food security, agricultural yield, food supply, and prices with serious implications on sustainable development, poverty, and inequality. The UNICEF warns about the availability and use of water in a nicely crafted statement that “the world needs to get water smart, and everyone has to realize that they have a role to play, and we cannot afford to wait” [ 5 ]. The “climate change is happening right now, and its effects are being felt around the world” [ 6 ].

Pakistan is vulnerable to the negative consequences of climate change, therefore, susceptible to unusual weather patterns, which can create strategic challenges [ 7 ]. The rising temperatures are causing rapid melting of glaciers in northern areas and unusual rains as seen in monsoon this year have created mayhem through floods, unprecedented in Pakistan's history in last 30 years. United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres stated that Pakistan is facing “the unrelenting effects of epochal levels of rains and flooding” [ 8 ]. The men and material losses are enormous and therefore, Pakistan is likely to face water crisis, food shortages, and serious implications for human security. Reacting to the recent flood situation in Pakistan, the Finance Minister Mr Miftah Ismail stated that “Pakistan is dealing with the worst effects of the climate change, which has caused over US$ 30 billion loss to Pakistan's economy and displacing 33 million people” [ 9 ]. This study explores the impacts of climate change on the availability, usage, and storage of water in Pakistan. The drought and floods of year 2022 have been taken as case study for analyzing the impacts of climate change across Pakistan by sampling both rural and urban areas. Figure 1 shows the sectoral usage of available water in Pakistan.

Sectoral distribution of water consumption in Pakistan.

2. Materials and Methods

The year 2022 is unprecedented in Pakistan's history of last three decades. The summers produced extreme temperatures which resulted in unusual melting of glaciers in northern areas of Pakistan resulting in partial collapse of bridge near Hassanabad in Hunza [ 10 ] as shown in Figure 2 .

Partial collapse of Hassanabad bridge.

Later, the exceptional monsoon rains produced extraordinary floods across the country, with huge men and material losses. The evolving trends indicate that Pakistan is most vulnerable to climate change. The floods have devastated the agriculture, livestock, and infrastructure. The loss to national economy is estimated at US$ 30 billion [ 11 ]. The survey and data analyses of past two and half decades reveal that Pakistan confronted from absolute dry and drought situations to devastating floods to the extent of witnessing both phenomenon in one calendar year as happening in the ongoing year 2022. The study has been completed by considering drought and floods data from primary and secondary sources with particular focus on this year. The field visits to rural and urban areas of Sindh, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK), and Baluchistan were conducted for obtaining the first-hand information and data on the impacts of flood situation. The relevant officials in the ministry of climate change and meteorological offices were also interviewed and their views have been incorporated in the study for developing a comprehensive picture, conducting rationale analyses, and arriving at workable findings. The study is very contemporary and relevant and expected to provide valuable policy guidelines to relevant government ministries in Pakistan as they are grappling with the ongoing flood situation and rehabilitation process. Figure 3 highlights the vulnerability of Pakistan to climate change risks in the global context, which has been explored further in the study to empirically prove the vulnerabilities and risks.

Climate risk indexing and Pakistan's vulnerability [ 12 ].

3. Findings

3.1. deciphering the impact of climate change on pakistan.

Climate remains the most debated yet least addressed issue for decades. World leaders have often joined heads to tackle this global phenomenon but with little to no success. From motivational speeches to documentaries and movies on the effects of climate change on the Earth has been narrated time and again but to no avail [ 13 ]. The developed countries remain aloof of devastating effects of greenhouse gas emission is causing to the ozone layer. The growing depletion of the ozone layer is resulting in increased Ultraviolet (UV) radiations level on the surface of Earth, which has detrimental impact on human health resulting in cancer and weak immune system [ 14 ]. These UV radiations have devastating effect on the agriculture sector as well due to low yield of the crops [ 15 ]. Scientists have been talking about the infamous “black hole” in the Antarctic region for years. But the recent research in the year 2022 has discovered a hole in the Tropics (Tropics are the regions of the Earth near the equator) which is seven times bigger than the Antarctic region [ 16 ]. The more alarming situation is that, despite all this, the industrialized countries are less concerned by the deteriorating ozone and increase in global warming. Various protocols and initiatives like Kyoto Protocol, Copenhagen accord, and Paris accord had been initiated by the United Nations Framework on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Due to the Sovereign status of the global order, these agreements were not a binding, therefore, the industrial powers contributing the most carbon dioxide and greenhouse gases to the environment withdrew from these accords as it did not serve their economic interests. The major global contributors of the CO 2 emissions are given in Figure 4 :

10 most polluted countries as of 2020 [ 17 ].

Figure 4 gives an account for the 10 most polluted countries in the world as of 2020. However, China remains leading in that aspect in the year 2022 as well. United States remain on second number with 4.4 billion tons of CO 2 emissions, while India is third producing 2.3 billion tons of CO 2 .

According to Figure 5 , the above countries might not appear as the top 10 global CO 2 contributors, but they fall in the top 10 per capita CO 2 contributors, due to their large-scale reliance on oil and small number of populations. United Nations Secretary General Mr Antonio Gutters paid an official visit to Pakistan on 9-10 September 2002 to show solidarity to flood victims and assess the devastations through field visits and official briefings. He stated that the “nature has attacked Pakistan, which contributes less than 1% of global emissions” [ 19 ] while facing the consequences of developed countries emissions and pollution of climate. He further added that “it was outrageous that action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions was being put on the back burner, today it is Pakistan and tomorrow, it could be your country” [ 20 ], pointing toward industrialized countries. The Global Climate Index (GCI) 2021 has also vindicated Pakistan's vulnerabilities to climate risks as shown in Table 1 below, where Pakistan stands number 8 [ 21 ] in the vulnerability Index. The analysis presented highlights the severe impacts of climate change on Pakistan ranging from extreme heat and drought to dreadful floods. [ 22 ].

10 most polluting countries per capita 2022 [ 18 ].

Global climate index 2021 [ 22 ].

3.2. Examination of Water Calamities in Pakistan

Water is an essential need for ecosystem and human life. In recent times, it has been a growing concern that “precious blue” is becoming inadequate resource for future of human survival [ 23 ]. The amount of fresh water has remained constant on Earth surface since last 100 years; however, the access to water resources is unbalanced [ 24 ] with the rapid population growth, urbanization, and deforestation. Similarly, other issues, such as technological waste, growing industrialization, global warming, and climate change, all are among the key contributing factors for extreme water scarcity [ 25 ]. Although the water scarcity has emerged as a global challenge today, it has severely hit the underdeveloped countries like Pakistan with serious implications on all sectors. Pakistan stands among top 10 severely “high water risk countries” with agriculture as most affected sector [ 26 ]. Moreover, roughly 80% of the population is facing grave shortage of water during at least 1 month in a year which is very alarming. Under scarce surface water, ground water resources (last resort to water supply) are being over utilized. If appropriate measures are not initiated in time with “whole of nation” and “whole of government” approach, the situation would get worse in time to come and the entire country will face the severe crises of water scarcity by 2025, by most projections “Pakistan could run dry” [ 27 ]. The evolving situation has serious implications on the national security of Pakistan, as it will create challenges for sustainable agriculture production which contributes around 23% of Pakistan's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and creates job opportunities for around 42% of population [ 28 ]. According to the report published by Pakistan Institute of Development Economics (PIDE), Pakistan ranks 14th out of 17 very high-risk countries affected by water scarcity, as more than 1/3rd of available water is wasted due to bad management [ 29 ]. Since 1962, after the formalization of Indus Water Treaty (IWT) with India, per inhabitant water availability has plummeted from 5229 cubic meters to about 1187 in 2017, which is continuously on the downward slide [ 30 ]. The latest UN report on Pakistan's growing population indicates that by 2050, the population is likely to exceed 366 million [ 31 ], which will compound the water demand, which is predicted to reach 274-million-acre feet (MAF) by 2025 against available water supply of 191 MAF. This demand and supply gap would continue to grow year on year basis due to growing population and bad water management [ 32 ]. Figure 6 shows graphical representation of expected water situation in Pakistan by 2025 viz-a-viz the population [ 33 ].

Water availability in Pakistan by 2025 taken from Dr Muhammad Ashraf's research report.

3.3. Analysis on Flood Devastations in Pakistan in Year 2022

Most of Pakistan's economy is dependent on the agricultural sector; however, the industrial sector also contributes a great deal to the economic growth of Pakistan. The growing population is directly impacting the environment as the number of vehicles on roads and the number of industries to accommodate these individuals will also increase. The population of Pakistan at the time of independence was 32.5 million; however, as per the 2021 census, the population has increased to 225 million. Although, Pakistan remains significantly low on the global CO 2 emissions list, yet the effects of global warming have reached Pakistan in a sweeping manner [ 34 ]. The issue that industrialized countries failed to realize that the environment does not belong to a single country and when one country damages the ozone layer, the entire world would pay the price for that. The year 2022 was one such year for Pakistan when the effects of climate change brought heavy rainfalls in Pakistan resulting in major loss of lives, infrastructural damage, and massive economic losses to the tune of US$ 30 billion [ 35 ]. The NASA issued satellite imagery on the flood situation in Pakistan, which is given in Figure 7 .

NASA satellite imagery of floods in Pakistan, September 01, 2022.

Torrential rainfall and flooding have wreaked havoc across Pakistan killing over 1600 people including children and destroying infrastructure. According to statement given by Sherry Rehman Minister for Climate Change: “One third of the country is literally under water, a catastrophe of unknown precedent” The data are given in Table 2 and Figure 8 . Therefore, the devastating floods caused by unprecedented impact of climate change have hit Pakistan the most this year seriously impacting all the sectors of economy and society [ 36 ].

Flood devastation in Swat (KPK) and Baluchistan.

Province wise loss suffered because of heavy rain fall [ 36 ].

3.4. Analysis on Drinking Water Quality in Pakistan

The quality of available drinking water in Pakistan is in a dreadful state. Both surface and subsurface water sources are contaminated and disease prone [ 37 ] in major cities as well as rural areas. In the overall context, per capita the availability of water is decreasing precipitously in Pakistan, and the country is ranked as “water stressed” country and fast heading toward “water scarce” country in coming few years [ 38 ]. The evolving situation also creates challenges for availability of water for agricultural production, and daily usage requirements, therefore intensifying the human security issues in Pakistan [ 39 ]. Water pollution is the most common word today in Pakistan, which can be ascribed to numerous aspects affecting quality of available water [ 40 ]. The common causes are an upsurge in the atmospheric temperatures, with an inbuilt tendency to take heat to the threshold of drinking water, microbes, organic chemicals, nutrients, and heavy metals [ 41 ] . The research findings have discovered other factors as well affecting water quality, which include surface debris, sporadic water supply, improper discharge of water supply, proximity of sewage water to drinking water lines, industrial waste which has now become very common in almost all major cities in Pakistan, discharge of untreated sewage water and highly incompetent technical workers and service providers on water disposal projects [ 42 ]. The pollution of water due to geological and natural factors depends on the presence of different chemicals and their concentration in the geological formations in selected areas, while anthropogenic pollution is caused by extensive use of herbicides and pesticides, coal mining, oil refining, careless disposal of garbage, and septic tanks [ 43 ]. Because of such developments, fresh drinking water is available to hardly 20% of population, while 80% population is content with drinking of contaminated water [ 44 ]. The recent floods have further aggravated the situation as vast swaths of land in Pakistan is still under water, which is now contaminated causing several health issues. The ongoing situation has also impurified subsurface drinking water due to seepage of contaminated flood water deep in Earth, and government's inability for effective disposal of sewage water.

3.5. Water Security

Food and energy security is directly influenced by water security for agrarian society like Pakistan, which contributes more than 23% in national GDP. Agriculture is the backbone of Pakistan as it employs more than 40 million population and guarantor of breadbasket of the country. Therefore, “the loss of major river systems in the past had a domino effect on the thriving civilizations, which became extinct one after the other” [ 45 ]. Pakistan is transitioning from water strained country with declining “per capita fresh drinking water, which is less than 1800 cubic meters per year (m 3 /y) to water scarce country (per capita less than 1000 m 3 /y)” projected by 2035 [ 46 ]. Similarly, river water also receding to 800 m 3 /y is expected in 2026 due to growing population. Therefore, “water security is emerging threat for Pakistan” [ 47 ]. Pakistan is a lower riparian state reliant on the nature and other countries for river's water. India has constructed more than fifty big and small dams on the rivers coming to Pakistan, which are a constant source of irritation in the bilateral relations and vital for Pakistan's water and energy security. Similarly, Afghanistan is also considering construction of dams on Kabul River, which is likely to create two front dilemmas for Pakistan. The situation is even challenging when viewed in the context of availability of only two major dams in Pakistan, Tarbela, and Mangla which were constructed in late 1960s and 1970s; however, “their capacities are reducing due to silting.” While construction of new dams is highly politicized, charged with massive outrage from political parties and masses, therefore, not likely to happen in near future. It is expected that the availability of less water is likely to increase food shortages and create conflict among the federating units and the federation. Similarly, the negative impacts of climate change can cause melting glaciers and unusual pattern of rains, which may lead to flooding as we are witnessing in year 2022.

3.6. Food Security

The Indus Basin, which is the bedrock of agriculture support in Pakistan is seriously threatened by the negative impacts of climate change. The changing weather patterns may result in the reduction of crops yield “(15–20% in cereals) and livestock (20–30%)” [ 48 ], impacting negatively the dairy and poultry as the agriculture and livestock sectors are the “backbone of Pakistan's economy, which contributes 23% to GDP and accounts 60% exports of country” [ 49 ]. The food security is vulnerable to climate change due to reduction in crops and adversarial influences on livestock. Reduced water in real harvesting season is changing the crops patterns and the lands are vulnerable to droughts and flooding as well, which also create massive migrations. The devastations of ongoing floods have created serious food shortages in Pakistan and inflation is also all time high. Pakistan's Prime Minister has already rung the alarm bells by stating that Pakistan is vulnerable to serious food shortage, and it is feared that essential food items may be imported this year and next year as all cultivable lands are under water [ 50 ].

3.7. Implications of Climate Change on the National Mosaic of Pakistan

3.7.1. competition over water resources.

Agriculture-based economies are heavily dependent on the natural resources of the state. This is extremely critical situation for the state to cope with the needs of the masses and economic challenges when there is a scarcity of sustainable renewable and nonrenewable resources. Countries like Pakistan where socioeconomic challenges, such as rising population, lack of political will, internal security issues, urbanization, lack of public policies for managing population, and natural resources are growing at a faster pace as compared with its economic growth. Even the geographical position of the state near the equator is unable to supplement its growing needs and demands. It is an alarming situation for the Pakistan that in the presence of other socioeconomic challenges, the drastic impacts of climate change have also increased its economic and political challenges, while the insufficiency of water reservoirs is creating serious concerns of inter-provincial disharmony. The rising population has not only affected the quantity of water reservoirs but has also depleted the quality in the same manner. The increase in anthropogenic activities is causing water stress on natural reservoirs, while since independence in 1947, the country is facing persistent decline in the availability of water year on year basis due to multitude of factors examined above. According to the estimates of Mr. Jamshed Iqbal Cheema, Chairman Pakistan Agriculture Scientists Association (PASA), in 1947, the capita water availability was 5600 cubic meters, which decreased by 406% from 5260 cubic meters in 1951 to 1038 cubic meters in 2010 and 877 cubic meters in 2020. The PASA estimates that available water will further deplete by 2025 to a level of 660 cubic meters and by 2050 will reach 575 cubic meters as shown in Figure 9 below [ 51 ].

Per capita availability of water reservoirs in Pakistan [ 52 ].

The causes of water shortages in Pakistan exist in two types: (a) incidental causes related to poor water management policies at local level, (b) operational causes include the political conflicts (over the water resources on provincial/institutional level) and the societal differences over water management and distribution. Water issue is not only related with the environmental degradation, but also linked with the social factors as abnormal population growth causes a rise in demand of clean water resources, disturbance of equilibrium between communities, provinces, and water resources distribution. As Pakistan consists of multiple ethnicities and diversified geographical terrain but competition over the access of water resources has often created tensions and conflicts among the federating units. The growing vulnerabilities of communities over the insufficiency of water reservoirs promote lawlessness, antistate sentiments and sense of deprivation among its own nationals. Due to lack of strong monitoring mechanism over channelization of available water, for creating a balanced approach between demand and supply of available water, the population is incentivized for illegal water proliferation. The tacit approval from the water management departments has resulted in water theft cases mostly in Southern Punjab and interior Sindh, as there are many illegal drillings, hidden pipelines, and unrecorded water connections from main supply lines. Such illegal water channels mostly exist adjacent to sanitation systems in cities and rural areas, contaminating the available water. The increase in anthropogenic activities is also causing water stress on natural reservoirs.

Another reason of growing water scarcity is unlawful construction and sanitation systems near or over the water channels, which continuously contaminate water, especially during floods blend these altogether. The role of administration is highly crucial in this matter to control such catastrophic constructions and lessen the pressure on water consumption. The unprotected constructions along rivers, lakes, and streams often cause blockage of natural water channels particularly in monsoon and rainy season resulting into loss of lives, roads network, and infrastructure damage as the enormity of flood damages to clean water channels is immeasurable. In 2010 floods, Pakistan witnessed unimaginable losses as around 20 million people were victims, 1.7 million died, 436 healthcare centers were devastated, 80% food reserves were smashed, 2.9 million households were severely damaged, nearly 1.1 million houses were damaged and $ 9.7 billion economic loss in 135 districts. While the issues of accessing the safe water channels was still in demand after flood (96.8% before vs 96.7%). In year 2022 floods, these losses have increased manifolds and caused unprecedented damages to natural water resources. Around 33 million people are direct victims, death troll rising above 1500, while 110 district of Baluchistan (Quetta, Pishin, Killa Saifullah, Nushki, Jaffarabad, and Washuk), Punjab (Koh e Suleman ranges, Rajanpur, D. G Khan), Sindh (Mirpur Khas, Thatta, Sajawal, and Shaheed Benazir Abad) and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (Swat and lower/upper Dir) are declared as most calamity hit areas. While 30% water channels are severely affected, and 63% flood victims are struggling for sufficient clean water channels. The economic losses suffered have been estimated to the tune of US$ 30 billion. The analyses amply highlight the insufficiency of available water and demand, compounded by adverse effects of floods during this year.

3.7.2. Negative Impact on Agriculture Sector

Pakistan is heavily relying on agricultural sector for its international exports and domestic food demands, but in the presence of water crisis and conventional irrigation system for its agricultural production, the country will face severe challenges of water scarcity in times to come. According to Global Food and Security Index 2021, Pakistan ranked 80 out of 113 countries [ 53 ] and Global Food and Security Index 2022, it has further slipped by four numbers and now ranks 84 out of 113 countries [ 54 ]. Pakistan lags behind all South Asian countries in food insecurity. The lack of progress in agricultural sector is also linked with the mismanagement of land and water resources, unsatisfactory policies of water governance, exponential population growth, and the negative impacts of climate change. Pakistan has also failed to adopt new strategies like advanced water management in agricultural sector, usage of adaptation methods in yields productions to enhance water consumption in eco-friendly manner, educate farmers about the water recycling and water productivity techniques. While water scarcity is a highly charged political issue in Pakistan as there is a turf war between the provinces and the federation. However, Punjab government took good initiative and introduced national water policy of Pakistan to ensure regularization of water governance system in the country. In the presence of fragile agriculture sector development, climate degradation impacts have worsened the livelihood and yield production. Therefore, on a year-on-year basis, the agriculture yield is squeezing, demand of water is increasing, and unplanned urbanization is resulting into loss of precious agriculture land. The overall impact of these issues is creating negative repercussions on agriculture production and aggravating food security situation in Pakistan.

3.7.3. Water Quality and Public Health Risks

The availability of clean drinking water is biggest national security challenge for Pakistan today. The water proliferation and loss of water supply sources from government record is not only raising the administrative issues but also causing multiple public health problems. The contamination of water along with the presence of sanitary pipelines expose the population with the contagious and chronic diseases like diarrhea, cholera, jaundice, typhoid, hepatitis C, liver cancer, and gastrointestinal infections. The water scarcity in Pakistan has enormous impact on health care system as well as the country is struggling with the diseases that are almost nonexistential in developed countries. The significant findings of this study are that in Pakistan, 50% diseases spread through contaminated water and provide most suitable medium of spread and transfer various bacterial and viral infections from human to human or animals to human as the country is facing the 40% of mortality rate caused by the contaminated water intake, while the frontline victims of waterborne diseases are pregnant women, newly born babies, and early teenage groups. It is also important to note that the primary source of water in Pakistan is sub-surface water channels, which over a period have become the hub of different variants of pathogens. According to World Health Organization (WHO) report, approximately, 2.5 million deaths occur annually in Pakistan from widespread diarrheal diseases caused by bacterial and protozoan agents present in inferior quality of drinking water. Around 80% population is exposed to unsafe water as UNICEF Pakistan has also shared the alarming fact that the well-being and health standards of youngsters are at risk; therefore, each year, 53,000 children under the age of 5 years lose their lives due to unhygienic water as 70% of household work and domestic usage of water in Pakistan is dependent on bacterial water sources. The floods of 2022 have compounded the problems of availability and access to clean drinking water. The field visits to rural and urban Sindh, KPK, and Baluchistan vindicated scarcity and contamination of drinking water, which has been reported by several NGOs and media as well. The stagnant water has been contaminated due to mixing of sewage water and created ideal breading grounds for bacteria causing serious health risks. Nonavailability of compatible medical support, inaccessibility, and nondisposal of flood water have created many health risks and entire population in affected areas is vulnerable to adverse effects of contaminated water. In most areas, the disposal of flood water is left to the nature and the government agencies have demonstrated inability to manage it, therefore, spread of waterborne diseases will continue for prolonged period in future.

4. Policy Recommendations

4.1. legislation for interministerial coordination.

The ministry of climate change should take a lead role and coordinate with all the provinces on the issues of water security. All related agencies and departments should work in harmony with this ministry for synergetic response. Similarly, international engagements would be essential component for successful policy implementation; therefore, Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Ministry of Climate Change should remove overlaps and avoid duplications wherever required.

4.2. Proper Enforcement of Legislation

“Pakistan Water Apportionment Accord 1991” highlights the judicious distribution of Indus River System (IRS) water among the federating units of Pakistan. However, this accord was unable to deal with the conflicts arising due to unfair distribution of water at times. To resolve this issue, “Indus River System Authority” (IRSA) was established in 1992 [ 55 ], through an act of Parliament to work as an institution for Indus water resources regulation and monitoring in Pakistan. However, the problems related to fair water distribution, monitoring and installation system, and the treatment plants lagged during the implementation phase. There always remained issues between Punjab and Sindh regarding unfair water theft. Despite establishment of “Council of Common Interest” (CCI) to resolve the grievances of provinces, but issues persist due to weak implementation mechanism and weak governance. The devolution of power under 18th amendment of the constitution, devolved the water distribution among the rural and urban areas of each province as an internal matter of the provinces; however, water crises remain at large seriously impacting inter-provincial harmony. The Pakistan Council of Research in Water Resources (PCRWR) is assigned the task of ensuring clean drinking water across Pakistan. Implementation of water-related policies requires a great deal of realization and urgency on the part of the political elites of Pakistan. The gravity of the issue needs to be addressed as a national emergency, otherwise, Pakistan is vulnerable to water scarcity situations normally witnessed in African continent.

4.3. Judicious Distribution of Water

Being a lower riparian, Sindh is often complaining about the water shortage, especially in the pre-monsoon period each year. The claims made by Sindh government at numerous occasions regarding Punjab stealing its share of water have been denied by Indus River System Authority (IRSA). After the 18th amendment, the allocation of resources to the provinces has been ensured to be judicious; however, the internal distribution of these resources to the rural and urban areas is the responsibility of the provinces. The IRSA is mandated to address, regulate, and develop standard operating procedures (SOPs) for water allocation to the provinces. Regrettably, each province has its own peculiarities in terms of agricultural needs and population, therefore, making the interpretation and implementation of the accord more difficult. To resolve water distribution issues on sustainable basis, the “whole of government approach” is recommended along with on-site consultative visits by the representatives of provincial and federal governments and political leaders for expeditious resolution of conflicting issues. Creating unnecessary fault lines is detrimental to national integration, which should be avoided at all costs.

4.4. Water Treatment Plants and Recycling of Water

Pakistan is in dire need of installing treatment plants as every year, hospitals are flooded with patients, both adults and children suffering from diseases resulting from contaminated water. People living in both urban and rural areas are exposed to contagions and microbial bacteria, which enter the body through water, unsafe for drinking. Not everyone in Pakistan can afford bottled water, therefore, it is the responsibility of the state to provide its citizens with safe drinking water. As we know that Pakistan receives a major portion of heavy rains between the months of July to September, where majority of rainwater ends up in rivers, ponds, while the rest of it results in heavy floods of cities and inhabitants. The government through installation of treatment plants can filter clean drinking water for ensuring public health. Similarly, more wastewater recycling plants are the need of time, which should be installed at priority. In rural areas, wastewater treatment is almost nonexistent, leading to pollution of surface and groundwater [ 56 ]. The government should pay instantaneous attention to the evolving challenges of treatment of wastewater for sparing clean water for drinking purposes and balanced delivery of recycled water to other uses like irrigation.

4.5. Climate Emergency and Disaster Response Mechanism

Pakistan was successful in convincing the world leaders during recently concluded United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) sessions about vulnerabilities to climate risks and the unprecedented impact during year 2022. UN Secretary General Antoni Guterres and US President Joe Biden personally appealed for help for Pakistan to alleviate the suffering and quick rehabilitation of flood victims. It is suggested that Pakistan should consider climate diplomacy as an urgent priority and initiate the process of engagement at bilateral and multilateral levels with developed countries to reduce the vulnerabilities and risks of climate change. Additionally, the disaster response mechanism also needs to be re-energized with strong interagency coordination. The existing structure of national and provincial disaster management authorities should be reinforced through capacity building and professional training. Appropriate equipment for rescue and relief operations also needs to be provided at vulnerable sites for immediate response to save maximum lives. The infrastructure development in flood affected areas should be expedited for which essential resources should be mobilized well in time. Such preparations should be done and rehearsed every year during pre-monsoon season for synergetic and a befitting response to minimize reaction time and save maximum lives.

5. Conclusion

Climate change is the evolving global threat, and Pakistan is most vulnerable from its negative impacts. The year 2022 witnessed extreme drought on one hand, followed by unusual floods over the short span of 2-3 months. Therefore, for Pakistan, alarm bells are ringing to take the holistic stock of situation by declaring climate emergency and adopt “whole of nation” and “whole of government” approaches for a comprehensive response ensuring strong interagency cooperation and capitalizing on the synergetic application of all Elements of National Power (EoNP) for optimum results. It is essential to integrate the respective departments under the umbrella of national and provincial disaster response agencies for harmonious functioning, coordination, and execution. There is dire need to create strong national realization to “conserve, preserve, and proportionally distribute existing water resources” [ 57 ]. Moreover, smart means for spending agriculture water and recycling of water for uses other than drinking would be helpful as such practices have been adopted by most of developed countries. The construction of more water reservoirs is the need of time and current floods across Pakistan are the testimony of this fact. It is felt that this study shall help the relevant government ministries as an academic policy input for addressing water security issues in Pakistan on sustainable basis.

Data Availability

Conflicts of interest.

The authors declare no conflicts of interest.

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Climate change likely helped cause deadly Pakistan floods, scientists find

Rebecca Hersher

People wait in line for food in Sindh province, Pakistan, on Sept. 19, 2022. The province was one of the hardest hit by recent deadly floods. A new analysis confirms that climate change likely helped cause the disaster. Pervez Masih/AP hide caption

People wait in line for food in Sindh province, Pakistan, on Sept. 19, 2022. The province was one of the hardest hit by recent deadly floods. A new analysis confirms that climate change likely helped cause the disaster.

It is likely that climate change helped drive deadly floods in Pakistan, according to a new scientific analysis. The floods killed nearly 1500 people and displaced more than 30 million, after record-breaking rain in August.

The analysis confirms what Pakistan's government has been saying for weeks: that the disaster was clearly driven by global warming . Pakistan experienced its wettest August since the country began keeping detailed national weather records in 1961. The provinces that were hardest hit by floods received up to eight times more rain than usual, according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department .

Climate change made such heavy rainfall more likely, according to the analysis by a group of international climate scientists in Pakistan, Europe and the United States. While Pakistan has sometimes experienced heavy monsoon rains, about 75 percent more water is now falling during weeks when monsoon rains are heaviest, the scientists estimate.

The analysis is a so-called attribution study, a type of research that is conducted very quickly compared to other climate studies, and is meant to offer policymakers and disaster survivors a rough estimate of how global warming affected a specific weather event. More in-depth research is underway to understand the many ways that climate change affects monsoon rainfall.

For example, while it's clear that intense rain will keep increasing as the Earth heats up, climate models also suggest that overall monsoon rains will be less reliable . That would cause cycles of both drought and flooding in Pakistan and neighboring countries in the future.

Such climate whiplash has already damaged crops and killed people across southeast Asia in recent years, and led to a water crisis in Chennai, India in 2019.

The new analysis also makes clear that human caused climate change was not the only driver of Pakistan's deadly floods. Scientists point out that millions of people live in flood-prone areas with outdated drainage in provinces where the flooding was most severe. Upgrading drainage, moving homes and reinforcing bridges and roads would all help prevent such catastrophic damage in the future.

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Challenges and Remedies

Social challenges and climate change are deeply interconnected, with climate change exacerbating existing social issues and creating new ones: a. Displacement and Migration: Climate change leads to more frequent and severe natural disasters such as hurricanes, floods, and wildfires, displacing millions of people from their homes. This displacement often results in forced migration, putting strain on receiving communities and exacerbating social tensions.

• Health Impacts: Climate change contributes to the spread of diseases such as malaria, dengue fever, and cholera, as rising temperatures create more favorable conditions for disease vectors. Vulnerable populations, including the elderly, children, and those with limited access to healthcare, are particularly at risk. c. Social Inequality: Climate change disproportionately affects marginalized communities, exacerbating existing social inequalities. Low-income communities, indigenous peoples, and racial minorities often bear the brunt of environmental degradation and are more vulnerable to the impacts of climate change due to factors such as limited access to resources and political power.
• Conflict and Security: Competition for dwindling resources such as water and arable land can exacerbate tensions and contribute to conflict within and between nations. Climate-induced displacement can also fuel social unrest and instability, potentially leading to conflict and mass migrations. e. Economic Disruption: Climate change can disrupt economies by damaging infrastructure, reducing agricultural productivity, and disrupting supply chains. This economic instability can lead to job losses, poverty, and social unrest, particularly in vulnerable communities reliant on sectors such as agriculture and fishing.
• Access to Water: Changes in precipitation patterns and increased evaporation rates can lead to water scarcity in many regions. Competition for water resources can intensify social tensions and conflicts, particularly in areas where access to water is already limited. These social challenges require comprehensive strategies that prioritize equity, resilience, and sustainability as well as investments in climate adaptation and mitigation measures, efforts to reduce social inequalities, and initiatives to empower vulnerable communities to cope with the impacts of climate change.

The relationship between society and climate change is intricate and multi-dimensional. Climate change affects societies in various ways, and societal factors, in turn, influence the causes and impacts of climate change: a. Emissions and Consumption Patterns: Societal activities, such as energy production, transportation, agriculture, and industrial processes, contribute to greenhouse gas emissions, which are the primary drivers of climate change. Consumption patterns and lifestyle choices also influence emissions levels.

Therefore, societal behaviours and practices play a crucial role in shaping the trajectory of climate change. b. Vulnerability and Resilience: Climate change impacts are not evenly distributed across societies. Vulnerable populations, including low-income communities, indigenous peoples, women, children, and the elderly, are disproportionately affected by climate change due to factors such as limited access to resources, inadequate infrastructure, and social inequalities. Societal resilience, which encompasses the capacity of communities to cope with and adapt to climate change impacts, is influenced by various factors, including governance structures, socioeconomic conditions, and cultural norms.

• Environmental Justice: Climate change exacerbates existing environmental injustices, disproportionately burdening marginalized communities with the impacts of environmental degradation and climate-related disasters. Addressing climate change requires addressing underlying social inequalities and injustices to ensure that vulnerable populations have equitable access to resources, opportunities, and decision-making processes. d. Policy and Governance: Societal attitudes, values, and political dynamics shape climate change policies and governance structures at the local, national, and international levels. Public awareness, advocacy, and grassroots movements play a crucial role in driving political will and shaping climate policy agendas. Additionally, effective climate governance requires collaboration and cooperation among governments, businesses, civil society organizations, and other stakeholders.
• Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies: Societal responses to climate change include both adaptation measures to reduce vulnerability and build resilience to climate impacts and mitigation efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and limit the magnitude of climate change. These responses involve technological innovation, policy reforms, behavioural changes, and investments in infrastructure, education, and research. f. Cultural and Behavioural Factors: Societal attitudes, beliefs, cultural norms, and behavioural patterns influence individual and collective responses to climate change. Promoting sustainable lifestyles, fostering environmental stewardship, and integrating traditional knowledge and practices into climate adaptation strategies can enhance societal resilience and facilitate sustainable development. Addressing climate change requires understanding and addressing social, economic, political, and cultural factors that shape vulnerability, resilience, and adaptive capacity within societies.

Addressing societal climate change requires a multi-faceted approach that involves various stakeholders and encompasses a range of strategies: a. Mitigation Strategies: Transitioning to renewable energy sources such as solar, wind, and hydroelectric power to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Implementing energy efficiency measures in industries, buildings, transportation, and appliances. Promoting sustainable land use practices such as afforestation, reforestation, and sustainable agriculture to sequester carbon dioxide. Encouraging the adoption of low-carbon transportation options such as electric vehicles and public transportation.

• Adaptation Measures: Investing in infrastructure resilience to withstand the impacts of climate change, including sea level rise, extreme weather events, and flooding. Enhancing water management systems to cope with changing precipitation patterns and increasing water scarcity. Implementing agricultural practices that are resilient to climate change, such as crop diversification and conservation tillage. Developing early warning systems and disaster preparedness plans to minimize the impacts of climate-related disasters. c. Social Equity and Justice: The needs of vulnerable communities, including low-income households, indigenous peoples, and marginalized groups, in climate change policies and decision-making processes. Ensuring equitable access to resources and opportunities for all communities to adapt to and mitigate climate change. Addressing social inequalities and injustices that exacerbate vulnerability to climate change impacts, such as poverty, racism, and gender inequality.
• Education and Awareness: Raising awareness about the causes and impacts of climate change through education campaigns, public outreach, and community engagement. Promoting climate literacy and empowering individuals and communities to take action to reduce their carbon footprint and build resilience to climate change. Incorporating climate change education into school curricula at all levels to foster a culture of sustainability and environmental stewardship. e. International Cooperation: Strengthening international cooperation and collaboration to address the global nature of climate change and its impacts. Supporting developing countries in their efforts to mitigate and adapt to climate change through financial assistance, technology transfer, and capacity-building initiatives. Upholding commitments under international agreements such as the Paris Agreement to limit global warming and promote sustainable development. f. Policy and Governance: Implementing strong, science-based climate policies at the national, regional, and local levels to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and promote sustainable development. Encouraging governments to set ambitious targets for emission reductions and renewable energy deployment, backed by robust enforcement mechanisms.

By adopting certain remedies and taking decisive action at all levels, societies can mitigate the impacts of climate change, build resilience, and create a more sustainable and equitable future for all.

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Making a Movement: Henry Lee on Who Shoulders the Costs of Climate Change

In this section, hks affiliated authors.

In his essay for the Carr Center's latest publication,  Making a Movement: The History and Future of Human Rights , Henry Lee discusses the impacts of climate change on our human rights—and how we must ensure equity in our global contributions to climate adaptation. 

Henry Lee, Director, Environmental and Natural Resource Program, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs; Senior Lecturer in Public Policy, Harvard Kennedy School

"The United Nations has repeatedly stated that climate change has clear and immediate implications for human rights. Certainly, its impacts affect the lives and well-being of people around the world.

"Sudden onset events, such as more intense storms, floods, and wildfires, directly threaten personal security, while slower forms of climate degradation affect access to food, potable water, sanitation, and livelihoods. Internationally, there is relatively broad—though not unanimous— belief that these damages threaten basic human rights. However, there is far less consensus on who is responsible for protecting and fulfilling these rights.

"While governments in richer countries have the financial ability to move funds and protect the more vulnerable segments of their population, such is not the case in Bangladesh, Somalia, or Vanuatu. If we accept that all people deserve to be protected from climate-induced disasters, do the developed countries that historically contributed the most to the greenhouse gas concentrations have a moral obligation to protect the lives and well-being of populations vulnerable to the damages of climate change in the poorer regions of the world?

"There is broad agreement that it is not reasonable to expect Pakistan, or other poor countries, to shoulder the costs of climate adaptation and damage by themselves."

"Consider the floods that devastated Pakistan in 2022. That summer, Pakistan received 190 percent of its average rainfall in July and August, resulting in floods that submerged one-third of the entire country. A World Weather Attribution study found that climate change likely contributed to the extreme monsoonal rainfall. The deluge killed 1,700 people, displaced 8 million people from their homes, and destroyed huge swathes of agricultural land and infrastructure. Reconstruction will take years and cost over $16.3 billion, according to a Post-Disaster Needs Assessment conducted by the Government of Pakistan with support from the Asian Development Bank, the EU, the UN Development Programme, and the World Bank.

"There is broad agreement that it is not reasonable to expect Pakistan, or other poor countries, to shoulder the costs of climate adaptation and damage by themselves. What should be the obligation of the developed countries? In past international forums, they have committed billions of dollars to this cause, but these commitments have not always been honored. Further, the costs ten years hence will be much higher. The domestic politics within these wealthier nations makes it all but impossible for them to accept that their taxpayers have any liability for climate induced damages in Pakistan or any other developing country.

"These questions are fraught with moral hazard implications, and disagreement over how to answer them seems to have stalemated the implementation of the Loss and Damage Fund established at COP27 in 2022. But as the damages from climate impacts mount, and the threat to a portfolio of human rights grows more acute, it is critical that the international community reach some sort of compromise." 

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Climate change impacts on health and livelihoods: pakistan assessment, attachments.

Executive Summary

The global climate crisis poses a number of threats to the well-being and prosperity of the people of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan. The country already witnesses several climate- and weather-related natural hazards due to its geographical diversity and a varied tropical, continental climate (hot summers and cold winters). Pakistan experiences recurring heatwaves and droughts, riverine and flash floods, landslides, and sea storms or cyclones. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of these events as well as exacerbate people’s vulnerabilities. It is projected that there will be significant increases in temperature across the country (high confidence) and especially in the snow-covered mountainous north, which will lead to faster glacial melt resulting in changes to the Indus River flows downstream. Heatwaves are likely to become more frequent and intense all over Pakistan, and the number of ‘hot’ days and nights are expected to increase significantly (high confidence). Changes in rainfall trends are not clear, though there may be some shifting of seasons (peak summer rain shifting to August and peak winter rains shifting to March) (likely). Extremely wet days are likely to increase across all of the country except in Sindh Province, which will experience more dry days (leading to the increased frequency of drought) (likely).

Climate change has the potential to trigger wide-ranging and strong negative feedback loops between livelihoods and health.

Pakistan is a low-middle income country that remains predominantly agrarian, although it is progressively industrializing its economy and over one-third of the population now resides in towns and cities. The country relies heavily on its climatesensitive land, water and forest resources for livelihoods and food security. Agriculture remains an important source of employment for 42 per cent of the population. Almost 90 per cent of agriculture depends on irrigation from the glacier-fed River Indus and its tributaries. Climate change has hastened the pace of glacier melt, which will increase the incidence of glacier lake outburst floods (GLOF) and flash floods downstream. Faster glacier melt, higher temperatures, shifting seasons and erratic rainfall patterns are all altering the flow of the River Indus and this will increasingly affect agriculture-related activities, food production and livelihoods. Already, 39 per cent of the population experience multidimensional poverty, and the loss of livelihoods described in this report will have huge consequences on people’s wellbeing and ability to afford healthcare.

Impacts to health (notably via heat exhaustion, malnutrition, the emergence of vector-borne diseases such as Dengue Fever, and the increased burden of waterborne diseases) will reduce people’s ability to work and earn a livelihood. Migrants, internally displaced persons, and religious and ethnic minorities will be highly vulnerable as they are often marginalized to hazard-prone land and face barriers to accessing healthcare, including financial barriers due to informal employment. Climate change may potentially increase the number of child marriages, premature births and domestic violence. Women and children will also be more vulnerable to malnourishment and malnutrition due to lower food production.

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David Wallace-Wells

When we see the climate more clearly, what will we do.

By David Wallace-Wells

Opinion Writer

This month MethaneSAT, an $88 million, 770-pound surveillance satellite conceived by the Environmental Defense Fund and designed at Harvard to precisely track the human sources of methane being released so promiscuously into the atmosphere, was launched by SpaceX, to great fanfare.

Methane, a somewhat less notorious greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide, is produced by industrial and natural processes — leaking oil and gas infrastructure, decomposing melted permafrost, the belching of cows and the microbial activity of wetlands. We’ve known that methane is producing a lot of warming and that there is a lot more of it in the atmosphere now , but we didn’t have the full picture. Beginning next year, MethaneSAT will begin beaming down everything picked up by its spectrometer, providing a publicly available quick-turnaround methane-monitoring system that has filled the hearts of climate advocates and data nerds with anticipation. What will it see?

The hope is that it will see a map of climate malfeasance that doubles as a global to-do list. MethaneSAT is not the first effort to track emissions from space, but its launch has been accompanied by a wave of can-do climate optimism for four big reasons.

The first is that methane really matters. By some accounts , it explains about one-third of warming since the Industrial Revolution, with estimates steadily growing in recent years, along with the astonishing rise of its concentration in the atmosphere. The second is that actually doing something about the emissions from fossil-fuel infrastructure shouldn’t be that hard or that expensive. Human activities are responsible for about 60 percent of all methane emissions, and according to the International Energy Agency, 40 percent of industrial emissions are avoidable at no net cost, with the balance of the industrial problem solvable for the price of just 5 percent of last year’s fossil-fuel profits. The third is that those benefits would arrive quickly. Methane, unlike carbon dioxide, dissipates quickly, whereas you have to wait for centuries or even millenniums to get the full temperature benefit of zeroing out carbon dioxide, so we can clear the atmosphere of human-produced methane in about a decade. And the fourth is that all of the pretty granular MethaneSAT data will be publicly available, scrollable and shame-able for anyone who cares to scan its website for burps or flares of planet-heating gas from at least 80 percent of the world’s fossil-fuel facilities.

This probably sounds like progress, which it is, on balance. But the satellite will probably bring some bad news, too. One of the scientists who developed it described the launch as “like looking over the edge of the cliff,” and almost invariably, whenever we get a better look at methane emissions, the problem appears bigger than we’d thought. The latest example is a revelatory paper , published in Nature last week, which surveyed U.S. oil and gas infrastructure and found that the country’s fossil-fuel industry is producing three times as much methane as previously estimated by the E.P.A.

The figure is both shocking and predictable. Previous Environmental Defense Fund research suggested that annual methane emissions from oil and gas were 60 percent higher than the E.P.A. had estimated. Last year, work published in The Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences suggested it was 70 percent higher . Globally, the International Energy Agency estimates , only about 5 percent of methane emissions were reported to the United Nations by the companies responsible. Reporting by countries was a bit better but still covered less than half of the total estimated by the agency. The Guardian documented more than a thousand superemitter events around the world in 2022. Leaks from just two fossil-fuel fields in Turkmenistan that year warmed the planet more than all the carbon emissions produced that year by Britain.

At least at first, this will probably be the message of MethaneSAT: In most parts of the world, we are doing worse than we had hoped. This should be reason to act, especially because methane is perhaps the lowest hanging fruit of the green transition.

But one of the unfortunate lessons of recent years is that such knowledge of the problem alone is rarely sufficient to drive us to solve it. Since 2021, more than 155 countries have pledged to reduce methane emissions by 30 percent from 2020 levels by 2030, in what was widely hailed as a major breakthrough for climate diplomacy and perhaps the most significant new global warming agreement since the landmark Paris Agreement of 2015. In the years since, new pledges have been extended ; if all promised cuts are made, methane emissions from fossil fuels will be cut in half by the end of the decade — a radical goal requiring a precipitous and immediate decline.

In order to keep the world in contact with its most ambitious warming targets, cuts of 75 percent would be required this decade . But methane from fossil-fuel infrastructure climbed again last year, the International Energy Agency reported last Wednesday, after climbing in 2021 and 2022. The organization believes a decline may be right around the corner, and there is considerably more global momentum for tackling methane now than in even the quite recent past. But the agency’s report noted that large leaks of the kind documented by The Guardian in 2022 grew last year by more than 50 percent. One such leak in Kazakhstan spewed gas for more than 200 days.

Though most of the attention paid to methane emissions these days focuses on that leaky industrial infrastructure and the climate risks of new liquid natural gas facilities, what worries me most is how much of it seems to be coming from natural sources, which may be responsible for 40 percent of the annual total — and the share may be growing, thanks to the effects of warming on emissions from wetlands, in particular, where higher temperatures promote more microbial activities that generate methane.

In 2020 the Covid pandemic suppressed industrial activity and reduced emissions of methane, but additional emissions from wetlands, researchers found , might have offset that industrial decline five times over. Last year a group of scientists published research documenting the exceptional surge from wetlands, which exceeded average projections from even the most pessimistic warming scenarios drawn up by the U.N.’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. From 2007 to 2021, wetlands emissions were already outpacing those extreme scenarios, and beginning in 2020, the rate of release roughly doubled the rate from 2000 to 2006.

This is not good. It is also another sign that over the past few years, we have somewhat left behind what the statistician Erica Thompson memorably called “model land” and begun to enter — or crash up against — a much messier climate reality.

In some ways, the news has been encouraging. As I wrote previously, perhaps the single most significant climate story of the past half-decade is the realization that extreme warming long considered the business-as-usual base line for our future is now looking much less likely.

But along other dimensions the reality has been more dispiriting than the models predicted. At the beginning of last year, it seemed unlikely that the planet would set a record for global average temperature, but by December, we had not just broken but shattered the record . Carbon concentrations in the atmosphere are increasing at eye-popping rates . An annual review by the World Meteorological Organization published this week declared, “The state of the climate in 2023 gave ominous new significance to the phrase ‘off the charts.’” And off-the-charts exceptional heat across the world’s oceans continues to perplex and worry an awful lot of climate scientists . The earth’s energy imbalance, which is about the best measure of the greenhouse effect over time, roughly doubled from 2005 to 2019 (though by some measures, it recently peaked ).

This, ultimately, is what MethaneSAT will see, circling the planet 15 times daily and keeping a watchful eye on human activities: that down here on the surface we are continuing to run a climatological experiment at a geologically unprecedented pace and scale. The world is warming faster than it had in tens of millions of years, and the rate of warming is accelerating. We’re adding carbon to the atmosphere at record levels, and the stuff we’ve put up there weighs more than the total of everything we’ve built on the earth’s surface. Because carbon dioxide dissipates so slowly, it will probably last much longer, too, making that planet-heating blanket of CO2 perhaps the largest monument to human civilization we’ve managed yet. In theory, we could get rid of the blanket of methane much more quickly. But will we? And if not, what does that tell us about the harder parts of the problem?

As climate change and pollution imperil coral reefs, scientists are deep-freezing corals to repopulate future oceans

Research Scientist, Smithsonian Institution

Disclosure statement

Mary Hagedorn receives funding from Revive & Restore; Paul M. Angell Family Foundation; Volgenau Foundation; CORDAP Foundation; Zegar Family Foundation; Oceankind; Mastriani Family; De Witt Family; Anela Kolohe Foundation; Cedar Hill Foundation; Sidney E. Frank Foundation; Scintilla Foundation; and the Smithsonian Women’s Committee. She is affiliated with Smithsonian National Zoo and Conservation Biology Institute and the Hawaii Institute of Marine Biology.

Smithsonian Institution provides funding as a member of The Conversation US.

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Coral reefs are some of the oldest, most diverse ecosystems on Earth, and among the most valuable. They nurture 25% of all ocean life , protect coasts from storms and add billions of dollars yearly to the global economy through their influences on fisheries, new pharmaceuticals, tourism and recreation.

Today, the world’s coral reefs are degrading at unprecedented rates due to pollution, overfishing and destructive forestry and mining practices on land. Climate change driven by human activities is warming and acidifying the ocean , producing a reef crisis that could cause most corals to go extinct within a few generations .

I am a marine biologist at the Smithsonian’s National Zoo and Conservation Biology Institute . For 17 years, I have worked with colleagues to create a global science program called the Reef Recovery Initiative that aims to help save coral reefs by using the science of cryopreservation .

This novel approach involves storing and cooling coral sperm and larvae, or germ cells , at very low temperatures and holding them in government biorepositories .

These repositories are an important hedge against extinction for corals. Managed effectively, they can help offset threats to the Earth’s reefs on a global scale. These frozen assets can be used today, 10 years or even 100 years from now to help reseed the oceans and restore living reefs.

Safely frozen alive

Cryopreservation is a process for freezing biological material while maintaining its viability. It involves introducing sugarlike substances, called cryoprotectants, into cells to help prevent lethal ice formation during the freezing phase. If done properly, the cells remain frozen and alive in liquid nitrogen, unchanged, for many years.

Many organisms survive through cold winters in nature by becoming naturally cryopreserved as temperatures in their habitats drop below freezing, Two examples that are common across North America are tardigrades – microscopic animals that live in mosses and lichens – and wood frogs .

Today, coral cryopreservation techniques rely largely on freezing sperm and larvae . Since 2007, I have trained many colleagues in coral cryopreservation and worked with them to successfully preserve coral sperm. Today we have sperm from over 50 species of corals preserved in biorepositories worldwide .

We have used this cryopreserved sperm to produce new coral across the Caribbean via a selective breeding process called assisted gene flow . The goal was to use cryopreserved sperm and interbreed corals that would not necessarily have encountered each other – a type of long-distance matchmaking.

Genetic diversity is maintained by combining as many different parents as possible to produce new sexually produced offspring. Since corals are cemented to the seabed, when population numbers in their area decline, new individuals can be introduced via cryopreservation. The hope is that these new genetic combinations might have an adaptation that will help coral survive changes in future warming oceans.

These assisted gene flow studies produced 600 new genetic-assorted individuals of the threatened elkhorn coral Acropora palmata . As of early 2024, there are only about 150 elkhorn individuals left in the wild in the Florida population. If given the chance, these selectively bred corals held in captivity could significantly increase the wild elkhorn gene pool.

Preserving sperm cells and larvae is an important hedge against the loss of biodiversity and species extinctions. But we can only collect this material during fleeting spawning events when corals release egg and sperm into the water.

These episodes occur over just a few days a year – a small time window that poses logistical challenges for researchers and conservationists, and limits the speed at which we can successfully cryo-bank coral species.

To complicate matters further, warming oceans and increasingly frequent marine heat waves can biologically stress corals. This can make their reproductive material too weak to withstand the rigors of being cryopreserved and thawed.

Scaling up the rescue

To collect coral material faster, we are developing a cryopreservation process for whole coral fragments, using a method called isochoric vitrification . This technique is still developing. However, if fully successful, it will preserve whole coral fragments without causing ice to form in their tissues, thus producing viable fragments after they’ve thawed that thrive and can be placed back out on the reef.

To do this, we dehydrate the fragment by exposing it to a viscous cryoprotectant cocktail. Then we place it into a small aluminum cylinder and immerse the cylinder in liquid nitrogen, which has a temperature of minus 320 degrees Fahrenheit (minus 196 Celsius) .

This process freezes the cylinder’s contents so fast that the cryoprotectant forms a clear glass instead of allowing ice crystals to develop. When we want to thaw the fragments, we place them into a warm water bath for a few minutes, then rehydrate them in seawater.

Using this method, we can collect and cryopreserve coral fragments year-round, since we don’t have to wait and watch for fleeting spawning events. This approach greatly accelerates our conservation efforts.

Protecting as many species as possible will require expanding and sharing our science to create robust cryopreserved-and-thawed coral material through multiple methods. My colleagues and I want the technology to be easy, fast and cheap so any professional can replicate our process and help us preserve corals across the globe.

We have created a video-based coral cryo-training program that includes directions for building simple, 3D-printed cryo-freezers , and have collaborated with engineers to develop new methods that now allow coral larvae to be frozen by the hundreds on simple, inexpensive metal meshes . These new tools will make it possible for labs around the world to significantly accelerate coral collection around the globe within the next five years.

Safeguarding the future

Recent climate models estimate that if greenhouse gas emissions continue unabated, 95% or more of the world’s corals could die by the mid-2030s . This leaves precious little time to conserve the biodiversity and genetic diversity of reefs.

One approach, which is already under way, is bringing all coral species into human care. The Smithsonian is part of the Coral Biobank Alliance , an international collaboration to conserve corals by collecting live colonies, skeletons and genetic samples and using the best scientific practices to help rebuild reefs.

To date, over 200 coral species, out of some 1,000 known hard coral species, and thousands of colonies are under human care in institutions around the world, including organizations connected with the U.S. and European arms of the Association of Zoos and Aquariums . Although these are clones of colonies from the wild, these individuals could be put into coral breeding systems that could be used for later cryopreservation of their genetically-assorted larvae. Alternatively, their larvae could be used for reef restoration projects.

Until climate change is slowed and reversed, reefs will continue to degrade. Ensuring a better future for coral reefs will require building up coral biorepositories, establishing on-land nurseries to hold coral colonies and develop new larval settlers, and training new cryo-professionals.

For decades, zoos have used captive breeding and reintroduction to protect animals species that have fallen to critically low levels. Similarly, I believe our novel solutions can create hope and help save coral reefs to reseed our oceans today and long into the future.

• Climate change
• Coral reefs
• Marine biology
• Ocean acidification
• Captive breeding
• Ocean warming
• Genetic material
• Ocean conservation

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