research proposal on population growth

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An Introduction to Population Growth

Why Study Population Growth?

Population ecology is the study of how populations — of plants, animals, and other organisms — change over time and space and interact with their environment. Populations are groups of organisms of the same species living in the same area at the same time. They are described by characteristics that include:

population size: the number of individuals in the population
population density: how many individuals are in a particular area
population growth: how the size of the population is changing over time.

If population growth is just one of many population characteristics, what makes studying it so important?

First, studying how and why populations grow (or shrink!) helps scientists make better predictions about future changes in population sizes and growth rates. This is essential for answering questions in areas such as biodiversity conservation (e.g., the polar bear population is declining, but how quickly, and when will it be so small that the population is at risk for extinction?) and human population growth (e.g., how fast will the human population grow, and what does that mean for climate change, resource use, and biodiversity?).

Studying population growth also helps scientists understand what causes changes in population sizes and growth rates. For example, fisheries scientists know that some salmon populations are declining, but do not necessarily know why. Are salmon populations declining because they have been overfished by humans? Has salmon habitat disappeared? Have ocean temperatures changed causing fewer salmon to survive to maturity? Or, maybe even more likely, is it a combination of these things? If scientists do not understand what is causing the declines, it is much more difficult for them to do anything about it. And remember, learning what is probably not affecting a population can be as informative as learning what is.

Finally, studying population growth gives scientists insight into how organisms interact with each other and with their environments. This is especially meaningful when considering the potential impacts of climate change and other changes in environmental factors (how will populations respond to changing temperatures? To drought? Will one population prosper after another declines?).

Ok, studying population growth is important...where should we start?

Population Growth Basics and the American Bison

The US government, along with private landowners, began attempts to save the American bison from extinction by establishing protected herds in the late 1800's and early 1900's. The herds started small, but with plentiful resources and few predators, they grew quickly. The bison population in northern Yellowstone National Park (YNP) increased from 21 bison in 1902 to 250 in only 13 years (Figure 1, Gates et al . 2010).

The yearly increase in the northern YNP bison population between 1902 and 1915 can be described as exponential growth . A population that grows exponentially adds increasingly more individuals as the population size increases. The original adult bison mate and have calves, those calves grow into adults who have calves, and so on. This generates much faster growth than, say, adding a constant number of individuals to the population each year.

Exponential growth works by leveraging increases in population size, and does not require increases in population growth rates. The northern YNP bison herd grew at a relatively constant rate of 18% per year between 1902 and 1915 (Gates et al . 2010). This meant that the herd only added between 4 and 9 individuals in the first couple of years, but added closer to 50 individuals by 1914 when the population was larger and more individuals were reproducing. Speaking of reproduction, how often a species reproduces can affect how scientists describe population growth (see Figure 2 to learn more).

Figure 2: Bison young are born once a year — how does periodic reproduction affect how we describe population growth? The female bison in the YNP herd all have calves around the same time each year — in spring from April through the beginning of June (Jones et al. 2010) — so the population size does not increase gradually, but jumps up at calving time. This type of periodic reproduction is common in nature, and very different from animals like humans, who have babies throughout the year. When scientists want to describe the growth of populations that reproduce periodically, they use geometric growth. Geometric growth is similar to exponential growth because increases in the size of the population depend on the population size (more individuals having more offspring means faster growth!), but under geometric growth timing is important: geometric growth depends on the number of individuals in the population at the beginning of each breeding season. Exponential growth and geometric growth are similar enough that over longer periods of time, exponential growth can accurately describe changes in populations that reproduce periodically (like bison) as well as those that reproduce more constantly (like humans). Photo courtesy of Guimir via Wikimedia Commons.

The power of exponential growth is worth a closer look. If you started with a single bacterium that could double every hour, exponential growth would give you 281,474,977,000,000 bacteria in just 48 hours! The YNP bison population reached a maximum of 5000 animals in 2005 (Plumb et al . 2009), but if it had continued to grow exponentially as it did between 1902 and 1915 (18% growth rate), there would be over 1.3 billion (1,300,000,000) bison in the YNP herd today. That's more than thirteen times larger than the largest population ever thought to have roamed the entire plains region!

The potential results may seem fantastic, but exponential growth appears regularly in nature. When organisms enter novel habitats and have abundant resources, as is the case for invading agricultural pests, introduced species , or during carefully managed recoveries like the American bison, their populations often experience periods of exponential growth. In the case of introduced specie s or agricultural pests, exponential population growth can lead to dramatic environmental degradation and significant expenditures to control pest species (Figure 3).

After the Boom: Limits to Growing Out of Control

Let's think about the conditions that allowed the bison population to grow between 1902 and 1915. The total number of bison in the YNP herd could have changed because of births, deaths, immigration and emigration (immigration is individuals coming in from outside the population, emigration is individuals leaving to go elsewhere). The population was isolated, so no immigration or emigration occurred, meaning only births and deaths changed the size of the population. Because the population grew, there must have been more births than deaths, right? Right, but that is a simple way of telling a more complicated story. Births exceeded deaths in the northern YNP bison herd between 1902 and 1915, allowing the population to grow, but other factors such as the age structure of the population, characteristics of the species such as lifespan and fecundity , and favorable environmental conditions, determined how much and how fast.

Changes in the factors that once allowed a population to grow can explain why growth slows or even stops. Figure 4 shows periods of growth, as well as periods of decline, in the number of YNP bison between 1901 and 2008. Growth of the northern YNP bison herd has been limited by disease and predation, habitat loss and fragmentation, human intervention, and harsh winters (Gates et al . 2010, Plumb et al . 2009), resulting in a current population that typically falls between 2500 and 5000, well below the 1.3 billion bison that continued exponential growth could have generated.

Factors that enhance or limit population growth can be divided into two categories based on how each factor is affected by the number of individuals occupying a given area — or the population's density . As population size approaches the carrying capacity of the environment, the intensity of density-dependent factors increases. For example, competition for resources, predation, and rates of infection increase with population density and can eventually limit population size. Other factors, like pollution, seasonal weather extremes, and natural disasters — hurricanes, fires, droughts, floods, and volcanic eruptions — affect populations irrespective of their density, and can limit population growth simply by severely reducing the number of individuals in the population.

The idea that uninhibited exponential growth would eventually be limited was formalized in 1838 by mathematician Pierre-Francois Verhulst. While studying how resource availability might affect human population growth, Verhulst published an equation that limits exponential growth as the size of the population increases. Verhulst's equation is commonly referred to as the logistic equation , and was rediscovered and popularized in 1920 when Pearl and Reed used it to predict population growth in the United States. Figure 5 illustrates logistic growth: the population grows exponentially under certain conditions, as the northern YNP bison herd did between 1902 and 1915, but is limited as the population increases toward the carrying capacity of its environment. Check out the article by J. Vandermeer (2010) for a more detailed explanation of the equations that describe exponential and logistic growth.

Logistic growth is commonly observed in nature as well as in the laboratory (Figure 6), but ecologists have observed that the size of many populations fluctuates over time rather than remaining constant as logistic growth predicts. Fluctuating populations generally exhibit a period of population growth followed a period of population decline, followed by another period of population growth, followed by...you get the picture.

Populations can fluctuate because of seasonal or other regular environmental cycles (e.g., daily, lunar cycles), and will also sometimes fluctuate in response to density-dependent population growth factors. For example, Elton (1924) observed that snowshoe hare and lynx populations in Canadian boreal forests fluctuated over time in a fairly regular cycle (Figure 7). More importantly, they fluctuated, one after the other, in a predictable way: when the snowshoe hare population increased, the lynx population tended to rise (plentiful food for the lynx!); when the lynx population increased, the snowshoe hare population tended to fall (lots of predation on the hare!); when the snowshoe hare...(and the cycle continues).

It is also possible for populations to decline to extinction if changing conditions cause death rates to exceed birth rates by a large enough margin or for a long enough period of time. Native species are currently declining at unprecedented rates — one important reason why scientists study population ecology. On the other hand, as seen in the YNP bison population, if new habitats or resources are made available, a population that has been declining or relatively stable over a long period of time can experience a new phase of rapid, long-term growth.

What about Human Population Growth?

The growth of the global human population shown in Figure 8 appears exponential, but viewing population growth in different geographic regions shows that the human population is not growing the same everywhere. Some countries, particularly those in the developing world, are growing rapidly, but in other countries the human population is growing very slowly, or even contracting (Figure 9). Studying the characteristics of populations experiencing different rates of growth helps provide scientists and demographers with insight into the factors important for predicting future human population growth, but it is a complicated task: in addition to the density dependent and independent factors we discussed for the northern Yellowstone National Park bison and other organisms, human population growth is affected by cultural, economic, and social factors that determine not only how the population grows, but also the potential carrying capacity of the Earth.

biodiversity : The variety of types of organisms, habitats, and ecosystems on Earth or in a particular place.

exponential growth : Continuous increase or decrease in a population in which the rate of change is proportional to the number of individuals at any given time.

age structure : The distribution of individuals among age classes within a population.

lifespan : How long an individual lives, or how long individuals of a given species live on average .

fecundity : The rate at which an individual produces offspring.

density : Referring to a population, the number of individuals per unit area or volume; referring to a substance, the weight per unit volume.

carrying capacity : The number of individuals in a population that the resources of a habitat can support; the asymptote, or plateau, of the logistic and other sigmoid equations for population growth.

logistic equation : The mathematical expression for a particular sigmoid growth curve in which the percentage rate of increase decreases in linear fashion as the population size increases.

native species : A species that occurs in a particular region or ecosystem by natural processes, rather than by accidental or deliberate introduction by humans.

introduced species : A species that originated in a different region that becomes established in a new region, often due to deliberate or accidental release by humans.

demographers : Demography is the study of the age structure and growth rate of populations.

References and Recommended Reading

Dary, D. A. The Buffalo Book: The Full Saga of the American Animal . Chicago, IL: Swallow Press, 1989.

Elton, C. Periodic fluctuations in the numbers of animals: Their causes and effects. British Journal of Experimental Biology 2, 119-163 (1924).

Gates, C. C. et al . eds. American Bison: Status Survey and Conservation Guidelines 2010 . Gland, Switzerland: International Union for Conservation of Nature, 2010.

Hornaday, W. T. The Extermination of the American Bison, With a Sketch of its Discovery and Life History . Annual Report 1887. Washington, DC: Smithsonian Institution, 1889.

Jones, J. D. et al . Timing of parturition events in Yellowstone bison Bison bison : Implications for bison conservation and brucellosis transmission risk to cattle. Wildlife Biology 16, 333-339 (2010).

Livingston, M., Osteen, C. & Roberts, D. Regulating agricultural imports to keep out foreign pests and disease. United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service. Amber Waves 6, " http://www.ers.usda.gov/AmberWaves/September08/Features/RegulatingAgImports.htm " (2008).

Pearl, R. & Reed, L. J. On the rate of growth of the population of the United States since 1790 and its mathematical representation. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 6, 275-288 (1920).

Plumb, G. E. et al . Carrying capacity, migration, and dispersal in Yellowstone bison. Biological Conservation 142, 2377-2387 (2009).

Rohrbaugh, R., Lammertink, M. & Piorkowski, M. Final Report: 2007 - 08 Surveys for Ivory-Billed Woodpecker and Bird Counts in Louisiana . Ithaca, NY: Cornell Laboratory of Ornithology, 2009.

Shaw, J. H. How many bison originally populated western rangelands? Rangelands 17, 148-150 (1995).

Vandermeer, J. How Populations Grow: The Exponential and Logistic Equations. Nature Education Knowledge 1 (2010).

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A Proposal for a United Nations Framework Convention on Population Growth

Harding, Rob | February 1, 2018 | Leave a Comment Download as PDF

The United Nations Meeting Room by Keith Burns | Flickr | CC BY-NC-ND 2.0

Introduction

Recently, an international assembly of scientists from 184 countries endorsed an article published in the journal Bioscience entitled “ World Scientists’ Warning to Humanity: A Second Notice ”. As the warning states, “We are jeopardizing our future by not reining in our intense but geographically and demographically uneven material consumption and by not perceiving continued rapid population growth as a primary driver behind many ecological and even societal threats . By failing to adequately limit population growth , reassess the role of an economy rooted in growth, reduce greenhouse gases, incentivize renewable energy, protect habitat, restore ecosystems, curb pollution, halt defaunation, and constrain invasive alien species, humanity is not taking the urgent steps needed to safeguard our imperilled biosphere.”

Further, this 2016 article published in the Chinese Journal of Population Resources and Environment presents an instructive discussion of why population growth remains largely unacknowledged as a primary driver behind such threats. And this 2010 article published in The Globalist introduces then dissects ‘Ponzi Demography’, asserting that “ the sooner nations reject Ponzi demography and make the needed gradual transition from ever-increasing population growth to population stabilization, the better the prospects for all of humanity and other life on this planet .”

As Population Media Center’s President Bill Ryerson asserts, population is the multiplier of everything else . Such knowledge demands action to protect life on Earth in a compassionate and intentional manner. People are receptive to this inclusive message. It compels us to act together.

I propose the establishment of a United Nations Framework Convention on Population Growth –one akin to the Paris Agreement for climate change with Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) in pursuit of a sustainable population in every country .

In effect, such a treaty would formalize what was presented in the preamble of the 1994 United Nations International Conference on Population and Development : “The recommendations for action are made in a spirit of consensus and international cooperation, recognizing that the formulation and implementation of population policies is the responsibility of each country and should take into account the economic, social, and environmental diversity of conditions in each country , with full respect for the various religious and ethical values, cultural backgrounds and philosophical convictions of its people, as well as the shared but differentiated responsibilities of all the world’s people for a common future.”

Thomas Paine wisely asserted that “time makes more converts than reason”, yet we are running out of time to act without, as the original World Scientists’ Warning to Humanity stated in 1992, “the risk that vital global systems will be damaged beyond repair”. This is why I believe the time to act boldly on population is now, and I think the United Nations is the appropriate avenue.

Summary of current activity

I have shared the proposal for this treaty with hundreds of people around the world so far and there is currently support from NGOs, scientists, academics, and/or activists in at least 10 countries across 5 continents. I’m also already in communication with the United Nations via UNEP, the UN Foundation, and the Harmony with Nature programme, and seeking input from leaders at UNFPA, UN Women, and the UN Population Division.

I was recently nominated for one of the United Nations SDG Action Challenge Awards –specifically, the ‘Connector’ award– for my efforts to catalyze support for this initiative, and I will be attending the related Global Festival of Action for Sustainable Development in Bonn, Germany in March 2018 to showcase this proposal and mobilize additional support.

The proposal

Goal: To catalyze an international campaign that leads to the UN establishing a Framework Convention on Population Growth. Further, the goal I have in mind is to present a joint international position statement with signatory organizations and/or individuals representing countries from every inhabited continent to the UN in 2018 prior to COP24 and UNEA-4 .

Note: I plan to attend the 2018 meeting of the UN’s Commission on Population and Development in April 2018 and am seeking fellow supporters to join me.

Context: Several environment-related international treaties exist today, yet none of them address the root cause of our oversized demands on the planet: human overpopulation. Every country deserves a voice at the table and this would provide them that opportunity.

We as a global community can’t view the UN’s population growth projections as destiny — 9.8 billion people in the year 2050 should be viewed as wholly unacceptable if we’re keeping future generations and other species as well as our own livelihoods in mind. The earth simply can’t support this. We are choosing short-term aggregate economic growth over long-term environmental, economic, political, social, and cultural stability, putting the future habitability of the entire planet in jeopardy. We know this is true and such knowledge demands action.

My thought is, if we can get human overpopulation + continued growth to be formally recognized by the UN as a global issue that must be addressed via national population policies (like the NDCs for the Paris Agreement), then people around the world will become more amenable to openly discussing local population matters , such as unintended pregnancy rates, sexuality education programs, access to family planning information and services, and migration, as well as foreign aid and economic justice.

Vision: My vision for the UN treaty is that it would formally recognize existing human overpopulation + continued growth – within the context of the IPAT formula – as a significant environmental issue and existential threat to the survival of humanity (one of several, to be sure). It would also promote a 3-pronged solution at national and international levels to achieve the goal of sustainable populations in every country .

3-pronged solution:

(1) Emphasize education about the issue of existing human overpopulation + continued growth, including why it poses an existential threat and why embracing small families to achieve a global TFR below 2.0 for the foreseeable future is an essential component of the solution.

(2) Prioritize the “ease of access” model of fertility decline , which appears to fit every country’s situation and addresses the goals of rapid fertility decline followed by sustained sub-replacement fertility rates by way of freedom to make informed family size choices, not coercion.

(3) Promote smaller “normal” family sizes –we need to establish a new normal for the Anthropocene.

Underlying this 3-pronged solution are the 5 principles presented in this paper written by Population Matters Director Robin Maynard. The 5 principles are (1) Universality, (2) Proportionality, (3) Equity, (4) Equality, and (5) Choice.

For all 3 elements of the solution, Population Media Center President Bill Ryerson’s essay from the 2010 Post Carbon Reader Series as well as former Worldwatch Institute President Bob Engelman’s 9 strategies to stop short of 9 billion provide excellent context.

Top reasons for pursuing a treaty through the UN

(1) To tell the story, the “whole truth” about human overpopulation

Great opportunity to tell the human overpopulation story, to share the story with a global audience including world leaders and members of the general public, and to publicly and formally assert that human overpopulation is solvable by embracing small families* for the foreseeable future.

(2) To bring the term “overpopulation” and the existing reality of human overpopulation into the mainstream

The UN is recognized globally as a lawful, mainstream international governing body. Formal UN recognition of existing human overpopulation and the solution of embracing small families* could help legitimize the issue and the solution in the eyes of world leaders as well as members of the general public.

(3) To make national population policies necessary and politically expedient

The Paris Agreement has helped apply pressure on governments and the private sector to “act on climate change”. Efforts to date have been somewhat misguided since they are focused on “downstream” issues, and that’s precisely why our cause could benefit from having a similar international accord –hopefully one that is universally ratified– that prioritizes action specifically on human overpopulation and highlights the clear, compassionate solution: embracing small families*. As our colleague Karen Shragg likes to say, if we don’t act on overpopulation then all of our other efforts will never be enough.

* It’s worth noting that I do not believe this treaty should be overly prescriptive about particular family sizes. I’m including a “1 child, on average” clarification to describe what constitutes a small family as a prudent guideline given the depth of overshoot we’re already in. While I’m envisioning this as a non-legally binding international accord, it seems like it’s high time that we explicitly encourage those family size decisions that will most benefit our shared cause within a reasonable time horizon given the other existential threats we currently face. The “1 child, on average” clarification takes into account the (at least narrowly) accepted notion that 0 children is fine, 1 child is good, and 2 children is enough.

The specific language used in the treaty (and even preliminary documents as the campaign grows) will likely make or break this initiative. Population size and growth are understandably sensitive issues, and to ignore this is likely to accept failure. Fortunately, I don’t have any deep ties to particular terms (e.g. overpopulation) and have no issue challenging those that do. I want big results (as we all do), and the language that will best allow us to get there with a mutual understanding among all member states is the language we should use. Winning some “battles” should not be misinterpreted as winning the “war”. Winning the “war” is the focus of this initiative, which I believe will be achieved by breaking the mainstream silence on human overpopulation and the resultant overshoot compassionately.

What you can do to help

Spread the word. If you like this proposal and believe it is important, please share this article with your colleagues and peers. We need all hands on deck.
Contact me. I welcome your feedback and would be thrilled to discuss this in more detail.
Reach out to the United Nations to voice your support and urge them to help advance this initiative. Specifically, consider contacting the Global Director of the UN SDG Action Campaign, Mr. Mitchell Toomey, at [email protected] , and reference the Connector Award for which I have been nominated. As a suggestion, also consider referencing this 2016 article by Joseph Chamie, former director of the United Nations Population Division, which highlights the importance of pursuing world population stabilization as a prerequisite for achieving universally adopted sustainable development goals .

Rob Harding is a Great Transition Initiative Champion, a signer of The Ecological Citizen’s Statement of Commitment to Ecocentrism , and the Sustainability Communications Manager at NumbersUSA . For more information about this organization, including specific objectives and statement of values, see this page in their website . The author can be contacted at [email protected] .

This article was originally published in Vol. 14 No. 2 of Mother Pelican: A Journal of Solidarity and Sustainability on February 1, 2018. You can access the original article on their website.

The MAHB Blog is a venture of the Millennium Alliance for Humanity and the Biosphere. Questions should be directed to [email protected]

MAHB Blog: https://mahb.stanford.edu/blog/un-framework-population/

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Scott d. rhodes.

Wake Forest School of Medicine

Amanda E. Tanner

University of North Carolina Greensboro

Lilli Mann-Jackson

Jorge alonzo, florence m. simán, eunyoung y. song, jonathan bell, megan b. irby, aaron t. vissman.

Talbert House

Robert E. Aronson

Taylor University

Various methods, approaches, and strategies designed to understand and reduce health disparities, increase health equity, and promote community and population health have emerged within public health and medicine. One such approach is community-engaged research. While the literature describing the theory, principles, and rationale underlying community engagement is broad, few models or frameworks exist to guide its implementation. We abstracted, analyzed, and interpreted data from existing project documentation including proposal documents, project-specific logic models, research team and partnership meeting notes, and other materials from 24 funded community-engaged research projects conducted over the past 17 years. We developed a 15-step process designed to guide the community-engaged research process. The process includes steps such as: networking and partnership establishment and expansion; building and maintaining trust; identifying health priorities; conducting background research, prioritizing “what to take on”; building consensus, identifying research goals, and developing research questions; developing a conceptual model; formulating a study design; developing an analysis plan; implementing the study; collecting and analyzing data; reviewing and interpreting results; and disseminating and translating findings broadly through multiple channels. Here, we outline and describe each of these steps.

INTRODUCTION

Various methods, approaches, and strategies designed to understand and reduce health disparities, increase health equity, and promote community and population health have emerged within public health and medicine. One such approach is community-engaged research ( Clinical and Translational Science Awards [CTSAs] Consortium Community Engagement Key Function Committee Task Force on the Principles of Community Engagement, 2011 ; Committee to Review the CTSAs Program at the National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences, Institute of Medicine, 2013 ; Rhodes, 2014 ; Trinh-Shevrin, Islam, Nadkarni, Park, & Kwon, 2015 ; Wolfson et al., 2017 ). Simply defined, community-engaged research is an approach to research designed to improve health through the involvement of the impacted community in research, where the community refers to any group of people affiliated by geographic proximity, special interest, or similar situations. Rather than researchers from universities, government, or other types of research organizations approaching and entering a community with a preconceived notion of what is best for a community, community-engaged research involves community members and representatives from community organizations collaborating and sharing research roles with academic researchers. Community-engaged research moves from treating community members as targets of research to engaging them as research partners. Community-engaged research emphasizes collaboration and co-learning; reciprocal transfer of expertise; sharing of decision-making power; and shared ownership of the processes and products of research ( CTSAs Consortium Community Engagement Key Function Committee Task Force on the Principles of Community Engagement, 2011 ; Committee to Review the CTSAs Program at the National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences, Institute of Medicine, 2013 ; Israel, Schulz, Parker, & Becker, 1998 ; Rhodes, 2014 ; Trinh-Shevrin et al., 2015 ).

Community-engaged research is viewed as an approach to reduce the “17-year gap”, which suggests that it takes 17 years for 14 percent of original research to benefit patient care ( Balas et al., 2000 ), because among its strengths, community-engaged research builds bridges among community members, those who serve communities through service delivery and practice, and academic researchers. Incorporating the experiences of community members, who are experts in their lived experiences and their community’s needs, priorities, and assets, and of representatives from community organizations with sound science can promote the reduction of health disparities and achieve health equity through deeper and more informed understandings of health-related phenomena and the identification of actions (e.g., interventions, programs, policies, and system changes) that are more relevant; culturally congruent; and likely to be effective, sustained, and scalable, if warranted ( CTSAs Consortium Community Engagement Key Function Committee Task Force on the Principles of Community Engagement, 2011 ; Committee to Review the CTSAs Program at the National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences, Institute of Medicine, 2013 ; Kost et al., 2016; Rhodes, Mann-Jackson, et al., 2017 ). Similarly, study designs, including those used to evaluate actions, that are informed by multiple perspectives may be more authentic to the community and to the ways that community members convene, interact, and take action. Thus, interventions, for example, may be more innovative; recruitment benchmarks, including enrollment and retention rates, may be higher; measurement may be more precise; data collection may be more acceptable, complete, and meaningful; analysis and interpretation of findings may be more accurate; and sustainability and meaningful dissemination of findings may be more likely ( Rhodes, Alonzo, et al., 2017 ; Rhodes, Duck, Alonzo, Downs, & Aronson, 2013 ; Rhodes, Mann-Jackson, et al., 2017 ). Furthermore, working with rather than merely in communities, partners applying community-engaged research approaches may strengthen a community’s overall capacity to problem-solve through participation in the research process.

Community-engaged research is often viewed across a continuum that spans from outreach, consultation, involvement, collaboration, to shared leadership ( CTSAs Consortium Community Engagement Key Function Committee Task Force on the Principles of Community Engagement, 2011 ; Committee to Review the CTSAs Program at the National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences & Institute of Medicine, 2013 ). Community-based participatory research (CBPR) is a form of community-engaged research in which community members are equal partners sharing leadership with academic researchers throughout the entire research process.

Our community-engaged research partnership has a 17-year history of working collaboratively to reduce health disparities, increase health equity, and promote community and population health. Our research is conducted by a community-university partnership comprised of community members, practitioners, academic researchers, and lay-experts from academic, government, and nongovernment institutions, including community organizations and businesses. We focus on understanding community needs, priorities, and assets, and developing, implementing, and evaluating interventions to reduce the burdens of HIV and sexually transmitted infections (STIs) and increase access to health services among Latino and African American/Black communities; gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men (MSM); transgender persons; rural populations; immigrants; and persons living with HIV ( Rhodes, Mann-Jackson, et al., 2017 ; Rhodes et al., 2014 ). Generally, we have followed steps of trust building; fostering collaborative co-learning networks with key stakeholders (e.g., community members, organization representatives, and academic researchers); and iteratively developing, pretesting, implementing, and evaluating interventions ( Rhodes, Alonzo, Mann, Freeman, et al., 2015 ; Rhodes, Alonzo, et al., 2017 ; Rhodes, Daniel, et al., 2013 ; Rhodes, Duck, Alonzo, Daniel, & Aronson, 2013 ; Rhodes, Duck, Alonzo, Downs, et al., 2013 ; Rhodes, Hergenrather, et al., 2007 ; Rhodes et al., 2006 ).

The theory, principles, and rationale underlying community-engaged research are well developed; however, there remains a need for models and frameworks to guide the implementation of community-engaged research in practice ( CTSAs Consortium Community Engagement Key Function Committee Task Force on the Principles of Community Engagement, 2011 ; Committee to Review the CTSAs Program at the National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences, Institute of Medicine, 2013 ). Thus, given the profound gap in the literature of models or frameworks to guide community-engaged research and our partnership’s successes in conducting community-engaged research, we sought to codify our process to provide a stepwise framework for successfully initiating and conducting community-engaged research.

Our Community-engaged Research Partnership

Members of our partnership, outlined in Table 1 , focus on the health of ethnic/racial, sexual, and gender-identity minorities and economically disadvantaged communities. Partners work on multiple projects and may be involved with and committed to different projects; however, our partnership is not study-specific. Partners may join and leave or may be more or less involved, but the partnership remains despite transitions. Community-engaged research requires an ongoing partnership that ideally is not tied to a single study or funding source; in fact, partners should be committed to, and involved in, the partnership, with or without funding ( Rhodes, 2012 ; Rhodes, Alonzo, et al., 2017 ; Rhodes, Duck, Alonzo, Daniel, et al., 2013 ; Rhodes, Mann-Jackson, et al., 2017 ).

Community-engaged research partnership members

To develop the community-engaged research process, we abstracted data from existing project documentation including proposal documents, project-specific logic models, research team and partnership meeting notes, and other materials, e.g., summaries of interventions, progress reports, conference presentations, and papers ( Aronson et al., 2013 ; Rhodes, 2004 ; Rhodes, Alonzo, Mann, Freeman, et al., 2015 ; Rhodes, Daniel, et al., 2013 ; Rhodes, Duck, Alonzo, Daniel, et al., 2013 ; Rhodes, Hergenrather, et al., 2007 ; Rhodes et al., 2006 ; Rhodes, Kelley, et al., 2012 ; Rhodes, Leichliter, Sun, & Bloom, 2016 ; Rhodes et al., 2014 ; Rhodes, Song, Nam, Choi, & Choi, 2015 ; Rhodes, Vissman, et al., 2011 ; Tanner et al., 2016 ), for 24 funded community-engaged research projects. These projects are outlined in Table 2 . These projects were funded by the US CDC, US National Institutes of Health (NIH), and foundations, including the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation, amfAR: the Foundation for AIDS Research, The Cone Foundation, and the Pfizer Foundation. Partnership members examined these documents and used an iterative approach with review, discussion, and re-review of emergent steps. The process continued until the steps were identified, refined, and described. A component of our analysis was to identify steps that crossed studies, had potential to be generalizable to other studies, and could serve as a guide for future studies.

Community-engaged studies included in development of this 15-step process

Identified Steps of Community-engaged Research

Our partnership identified 15 steps to guide community-engaged research ( Figure 1 ).

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Steps of community engaged-research to reduce health disparities and promote health equity

1. Networking.

The first step in the community-engaged research process requires the development of a network of persons with similar areas of interest or concern. Community-engaged research relies on an alignment among community needs, priorities, and resources and expertise of partners. Thus, a critical foundation of community-engaged research is identifying potential partners. We have found that casting a wide net ensures a broad spectrum of perspectives and expertise necessary to effectively conduct research to understand health disparities and promote community and population health.

Our partnership is based on a firm foundation developed by the NC Community-Based Public Health Initiative (CBPHI). Members of a NC CBPHI-organized community-engaged research partnership that had a history of successfully implementing diabetes interventions within African American/Black faith communities in rural NC ( Margolis et al., 2000 ; Parker et al., 1998 ) wanted to explore the needs, priorities, and assets of the growing Latino community ( Rhodes, Eng, et al., 2007 ; Rhodes et al., 2006 ). However, Latino community members were not sufficiently represented within the partnership. Thus, much effort went into the process of networking with Latino community members. Partners met informally one-on-one and held small group meetings with Latino community members to network and discuss working together to identify needs, priorities, and assets. For example, partners approached the president of a large recreational soccer league (>1,800 members) to talk about the partnership, his potential involvement (and the potential involvement of his soccer league), and the potential to explore and address the priorities and needs of the Latino community. Partners met with the league president every two weeks over dinner, explaining his potential role in the partnership. After each dinner, he requested time to think about involvement of his league and scheduled subsequent dinner meetings. After eight months of having dinner every two weeks with partnership representatives, the president brought his wife to dinner. She curiously asked, “Why do you continue to take my husband to dinner?” Hearing the partners discuss his role and the importance of his involvement in third person resonated with him. His wife also approved of his involvement, and he joined the partnership. This was an important lesson for the partnership; although the partners understood why the soccer league president would be critical, he did not have the same understanding. This community had been neglected; they were not accustomed to others wanting to work in authentic partnership with them.

2. Partnership establishment.

Sound community-engaged research is facilitated by the establishment, maintenance, and commitment of a community-academic partnership comprised of community members; representatives of organizations, agencies, and businesses; providers and practitioners, and academic researchers. Partners work together in a participatory manner, providing diverse perspectives, insights, and experiences throughout the research process ( Seifer & Maurana, 2000 ). Like other partnerships ( Seifer & Maurana, 2000 ), our partnership established and adheres to principles to help facilitate and guide the process of engagement and participation ( Table 3 ).

Principles of partnership

3. Building and maintaining trust.

Trust building and maintenance are key to community-engaged research; many communities have felt exploited as “living laboratories” for universities and academic medical centers, and community members and organization representatives may be hesitant to engage with each other and with academic researchers. Relationships between community members, organization representatives, practitioners, and academic researchers may involve informal meetings that allow partners to acknowledge and discuss this history and get to know one another. Community events such as street fairs, church gatherings, and community forums as well as parties and celebrations are ideal places for partners to convene. These types of opportunities show commitment and allow attendees to further know and understand one another. Participation in other non-research activities, such as volunteering with a community organization or serving on local health coalitions, by academic partners, advances genuine and mutually respectful relationships. It also may open other doors by providing further opportunities to identify others who may be committed to working together.

Another longstanding partnership in North Carolina has used an Undoing Racism Training (Peoples Institute for Survival and Beyond) as a strategy for building trust among partners. By participating in the training as a partnership and making a commitment to the processes delineated within the Undoing Racism model, partners better appreciate the contextual challenges faced by communities (e.g., institutional racism); the need for broad and meaningful representation to overcome these challenges; and the roles of transparency, conflict, and cultural humility ( Tervalon & Murray-Garcia, 1998 ) within research partnerships ( Yonas et al., 2006 ).

4. Identification of health priorities.

Exploring community member perspectives may yield important insights about what community members perceive as needs, priorities, and assets. Strategies to identify health priorities may include focus groups and in-depth individual interviews. One innovative qualitative methodology that we have used frequently to identify and understand community priorities is photovoice. Photovoice enables participants to record and reflect on community priorities through photographs that they take and group discussion triggered by these photographs. This method provides images of lived experiences and gives an opportunity for participants and others who may be able to support action to collaboratively identify priorities and next steps ( Hergenrather, Rhodes, Cowan, Bardhoshi, & Pula, 2009 ). We have successfully used photovoice with Latino men ( Rhodes, Hergenrather, Griffith, et al., 2009 ) and women ( Baquero et al., 2014 ), persons with HIV ( Rhodes, Hergenrather, Wilkin, & Jolly, 2008 ), Latino transgender persons ( Rhodes, Alonzo, Mann, Sun, et al., 2015 ), Latino ( Streng et al., 2004 ) and non-Latino ( Irby et al., In press .) adolescents, and the Korean immigrant community ( Rhodes, Song, et al., 2015 ).

Exploring health priorities can also be done using innovative quantitative methods, such as respondent-driven sampling (RDS), which uses chain-referrals, or initial respondents as “seeds” to yield representative samples and prevalence estimates for populations that may be considered “difficult to reach” by researchers or other outsiders for which no sampling frame exists (e.g., immigrants and Latino MSM and transgender women) ( Rhodes, McCoy, et al., 2012 ; Song et al., 2012 ).

5. Background research.

It is important to explore and analyze community priorities in context. Community priorities should be matched with the aggregate knowledge from organization representatives (e.g., service providers) based in ongoing service delivery and practice, available epidemiologic data, and the academic and grey literatures. Community-engaged research must build upon what is known. Often, academic researchers are hesitant to suggest what they know about community needs. However, we have found that academic researchers who are trusted and active partners often have valuable insights themselves and should share what they know and help community partners develop new understandings through working together. The available epidemiologic data and the literature that academic researchers have ready access to can provide the partnership with critical information to ensure the most informed understanding of health.

6. Prioritization.

Based on what is learned through identifying community priorities and putting these priorities within a larger context of what is known, partners make decisions about issues on which to focus based on the answers from two key questions: (1) What is important? and (2) What is changeable? Although much research is needed that aligns with community priorities, open and honest discussions of what is both important and changeable given interests, talents, and resources are critical.

Without thoughtful prioritization, it is unlikely that community health will be enhanced. For example, our partnership initially began with a clear focus on HIV prevention among Latino men. We knew that HIV among women and youth was important too, but we focused on the population that was initially engaged. We also wanted to begin our research process modestly, incrementally building a history of success. We chose a stepwise approach that moved in a linear manner from formative data collection to intervention design, implementation, and evaluation. This was a carefully orchestrated process because reasonable scopes of work help to ensure early successes that in turn help maintain engagement.

7. Consensus on research goals and development of a research question.

Partners must negotiate and agree upon what they are working toward. For example, within our intervention research, partners agree that we are developing and testing interventions to determine their efficacy. Being clear about this focus is particularly important, given that service providers and practitioners often deliver interventions and programs; they often do not test them to determine their efficacy. Testing an intervention or program adds complexity beyond the challenges typically associated with intervention or program delivery and includes issues related to sample size and statistical power, randomization, measurement, data collection methods, fidelity, and validity. Thus, agreeing on goals and articulating a research question help to frame a project and identify what it will take to meet the goals.

8. Development of a conceptual model.

We found that the development of a conceptual model or logic model allows partners to visually depict the linear process of the research, the resources needed, and the outcomes expected. A conceptual or logic model must incorporate the lived experiences of community members, insights based on ongoing service provision and delivery by providers and practitioners, and theoretical underpinnings. Development of a conceptual model or logic model allows partners to discuss their various assumptions and engage in a process to reconcile perspectives. This step also facilitates the preliminary identification of variables for measurement. The conceptual model and logic model concept is presented and viewed as a fluid resource that may change over time based on new insights.

9. Formulation of a study design.

The next step in the process includes the development of an appropriate study design to answer the agreed-upon research question. This step allows the study to be conducted in a manner that is authentic to what is possible within the community. Rather than developing a study that is not likely to meet objectives, engagement ensures that the most feasible design is chosen to produce the most meaningful findings.

To test interventions, for example, our partnership has utilized two main designs: intervention/delayed-intervention group-randomized trial design and the two-arm randomized intervention-controlled trial design. We have found intervention/delayed-intervention group-randomized trial design ( Campbell et al., 2000 ) to be appealing because it ensures all study participants have access to the intervention over time. Community members want to test interventions, but they want designs that do not neglect the needs of some participants. Thus, many of our studies have used the intervention/delayed-intervention group-randomized trial design.

The second study design our partnership has had success in implementing is the two-arm randomized controlled trial (RCT) design. During the process of implementing the original HoMBReS intervention ( Rhodes, Hergenrather, Bloom, Leichliter, & Montaño, 2009 ; Rhodes et al., 2006 ; Rhodes et al., 2016 ) and prior to our knowing whether the intervention was successful, members of our partnership increased their understanding of the role and importance of using scientific evidence to guide policy, specifically prevention funding priorities. The State of North Carolina Department of Health and Human Services announced the availability of funding for HIV prevention but required applicants to use efficacious interventions. Despite the impact HIV was having on Latino populations, at that time, no efficacious existed to contribute to reducing and eliminating HIV disparities within Latino communities.

The dearth of interventions designed to meet the priorities and needs of Latino communities motivated members of our partnership to develop the HoMBReS-2 intervention and test it using a two-arm RCT ( Rhodes, McCoy, et al., 2011 ). This type of design would not have been feasible in our community previously; however, working closely, partners built trust among one another and increased appreciation of the value of scientific evidence. Partners recognized that communities that had interventions designed specifically for them would be more able to access state HIV prevention funding to implement needed interventions and programs. Members of the partnership decided that they wanted to develop an intervention and test it in a manner that would begin to build evidence. As a Latino partner noted,

“Latinos want and need information and help to be safe, but nothing exists that we can point to that shows promise in saving the lives of Latinos. Other communities have programs that are based on science. These communities came together to develop these programs and prove that they work. They have demonstrated to outsiders [policy makers] that they work. Now these programs can help other communities because policy makers provide resources. The Latino community deserves the same high quality programming that is based in strong research. To expect anything for ourselves would be wrong; we would be saying that Latinos should not have the same level of programming.”

10. Development of an analysis plan.

Along with formulating a study design, working together allows the most community-relevant outcomes variables to be selected and the most meaningful analysis plan to be developed. Insights about variables, their measurement, confounders, and how analyses should proceed can help to ensure the most informed process for answering the agreed-upon research question and thus, again, the most meaningful study findings.

11. Implementation.

After thorough planning and preparation, the next step that we identified includes the implementation of the research. Engagement ensures ongoing study oversight and problem solving by partners. When faced with challenges to meet research benchmarks, engagement ensures creative solutions that consider the potential ramifications to the research and the community from multiple perspectives.

An example of our use of creative problem solving occurred as we began implementing the HOLA intervention ( Rhodes, Daniel, et al., 2013 ; Tanner et al., 2014 ). While our previous studies included substantial proportions of transgender persons ( Rhodes, Hergenrather, et al., 2010 ; Rhodes, McCoy, et al., 2012 ), we realized that our the HOLA intervention did not acknowledge and address the concerns and contexts of transgender persons in the same way it did for gay, bisexual, and other MSM. For instance, the “H” in our HOLA stood for “hombres” (men) ( Rhodes, Daniel, et al., 2013 ), and yet, some participants who met inclusion criteria did not self-identify as men. When we realized our error, we quickly but thoughtfully revised the intervention curriculum. We no longer defined and gave meaning to the letters within the acronym HOLA in the intervention title, and we removed the meaning of the acronym HOLA from logos, t-shirts, caps, and all printed materials. We also revised all facilitator language to include “transgender persons,” rather than only “gay, bisexual, and other MSM” in Spanish. We updated information to include rates of HIV and sexually transmitted infections among transgender persons, revised role-plays to include transgender scenarios, and ensured that all visuals included images of transgender women. We also successfully developed and implemented a transgender photovoice project to better understand their needs, priorities, and assets ( Rhodes, Alonzo, Mann, Sun, et al., 2015 ).

Our work with Latina transgender women has led to an intervention that we are currently testing titled, ChiCAS: Chicas Creando Acceso a la Salud [ Girls: Girls Creating Access to Health ]). ChiCAS is designed to increase access to medically supervised hormone therapy and pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) among Latina transgender women.

12. Data collection.

In most cases, data collection is a component within implementation, but it is highlighted as a separate step to highlight the importance of engagement within data collection to increase the overall accuracy of collected data and thus the usefulness of collected data. Although academic researchers often have “curiosities” that they would like to answer, community-engaged research ensures that measurement focuses on important and relevant variables, participant burden is minimized, and measures have ecologic validity ( Rhodes, Malow, & Jolly, 2010 ). Our partnership reduces participant burden and thus the potential of incomplete or meaningless responses to surveys by using measures that assess variables that are most germane to the research being conducted and are parsimonious.

13. Data analysis.

Engagement during data analysis ensures the analysis plan “makes sense”, allows for refinement based on new understandings among partners, and can include participation throughout the data analysis process. In a qualitative study of sexual health among Latino men ( Rhodes, Eng, et al., 2007 ), an ad hoc committee of partners served as the data analysis team. Members of this team consisted of between 1 and 3 representatives from each of the following groups: the local lay Latino community, a local Latino soccer league, a Latino-serving community organization, the local health department, an AIDS service organization, and a university. Because some members of analysis team were not bilingual, each read and coded transcripts in his or her own language. The analysis aimed to identify common themes through coding text. Conducting the analyses separately, analysis team members read and reread the transcripts to identify potential codes, convened to create a common coding system and data dictionary, and then separately assigned agreed-upon codes to relevant text. The academic researcher used Nvivo, an analytic software program, to code and retrieve text. Similarities and differences across transcripts were examined and codes and themes revised accordingly. Analysis team members met to compare and revise themes. One theme was the positive role of “traditional” notions of masculinity that are often identified as having negative influences on men’s health. Instead, the partnership approach teased out the positive aspects of masculinity, such as respecting oneself and taking care of one’s family, which are linked to immigrating to the United States.

14. Review and interpret results.

This step contributes to the accuracy of findings by allowing members of the partnership to understand, refine, and when warranted, provide alternate explanations and interpretations. Working alone, an academic researcher may misunderstand and/or misinterpret results, but through the process of partners working together to review and interpret results, results and their interpretations are more likely to be accurate. Working together also allows partners to identify next steps, including how, when, and where to present the findings, as well as directions for subsequent research.

During the qualitative study of sexual health among Latino men ( Rhodes, Eng, et al., 2007 ) described in step 13, draft themes were written on flipcharts so that partners could review, discuss, revise, and interpret them during four iterative discussions. During each step of the process, information generated was combined with partners’ lived experiences and cultural knowledge as well as previous research to inform theme development and derive interpretations. This approach yielded five themes, which the partnership subsequently employed in sequent interventions.

15. Dissemination and translation.

Community-engaged research helps to ensure that presentations and peer-reviewed papers for scientific audiences are not the only channels used for dissemination. In our partnership, we support broad dissemination with members of the partnership participating in dissemination efforts at all levels. For example, community members and organization representatives may participate in national and international and presentations for scientific audiences along with academic researchers while academic researchers may participate in presentations for practice-based and community audiences. Community members, organization representatives, and academic researchers also participate in the preparation and authorship of peer-reviewed papers, policy briefs, and practice-based newsletters.

Discovery within community-engaged research occurs both as the research process unfolds and as research goals are met in the form of study outcomes. Learning throughout the process includes how to work together more effectively, how to problem-solve, and how to accomplish study-related tasks. Thus, representatives from the community and community organizations contribute and learn throughout the process; they may be involved not only in overcoming hurdles related to recruitment, for example, but may be involved in study conceptualization, design and conduct, data analysis and interpretation, and the dissemination of findings.

Community-engaged research holds much promise for contributing to community and population health. Because community-engaged research is inherently translational, it ensures that basic, more formative research is conducted with a goal of practical use to improve health. Research may begin with an assessment of needs and to understand phenomena through community perceptions and epidemiologic data, but research findings must be translated into action for positive community change. There is a long history of research designed to answer interesting and potentially important questions, but more often than not, those answers have not been consistently translated into community and population health. It is not sufficient to solely generate knowledge; rather, we must commit to action, including individual, group, and community action, as well as policy and social change. Though the use of findings can be slow, through engagement, change may occur. That change, however, can be difficult to quantify.

Best practices for community-engaged research will continue to evolve. Our systematic approach to engagement throughout the research process serves as a guide. Each step is complicated, and our work as a partnership has not been without challenges. For example, partners face the realities of HIV infection every day and know that something must be done for the communities each partner belongs to. The slow pace of securing research funding and conducting sound research is an ongoing frustration. Furthermore, communities themselves are not infallible; community members and members of community-engaged research partnerships may have strongly held prejudices about one another that require ongoing attention and work.

However, our partnership has had great success using systematic community-engaged research processes. We are committed to community-engaged research as an innovative approach because it maximizes the probability that what we do together is based on what the community itself sets as a priority; is more informed because of the sharing of broad perspectives, insights, and experiences; builds capacity of all partners to solve community problems, use community assets, and conduct meaningful research; and promotes sustainability.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

We thank the broader membership of the community-engaged research partnership that the authors are part of. Funding for this commentary includes CDC (TS-1023 [through a cooperative agreement with Association for Prevention Teaching and Research], U01PS005137, UR6PS000690, NU22PS005115, and U01PS001570); HRSA (H97HA28896); NIH (UL1TR001420, R01MH092932, R01MH087339, R24MD002774, R21MH082689, and R21MH079827), and the Cone Health Foundation.

Contributor Information

Scott D. Rhodes, Wake Forest School of Medicine.

Amanda E. Tanner, University of North Carolina Greensboro.

Lilli Mann-Jackson, Wake Forest School of Medicine.

Jorge Alonzo, Wake Forest School of Medicine.

Florence M. Simán, El Pueblo.

Eunyoung Y. Song, Wake Forest School of Medicine.

Jonathan Bell, Wake Forest School of Medicine.

Megan B. Irby, Wake Forest School of Medicine.

Aaron T. Vissman, Talbert House.

Robert E. Aronson, Taylor University.

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Population and National Security

First Online: 02 July 2022

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Jennifer D. Sciubba 4 &
Seongjoon Hwang 4

Part of the book series: International Handbooks of Population ((IHOP,volume 11))

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Scholars and policymakers have connected population and national security since the beginning of the modern nation-state, but in dynamic ways as definitions of “security” itself have evolved to encompass realms beyond a traditional, state-centric view. This chapter engages with these various definitions of security through a discussion of population dynamics – primarily population size, composition, and distribution. Demography is a useful tool for understanding national security because mortality, fertility, and migration – the three components of population change – are mostly long-term trends that can allow analysts to project the near future with some degree of certainty. The chapter first describes the baseline historical and theoretical foundations scholars have built on as they consider the relationship between population and national security. The chapter then proceeds to examine linkages between population and national security through two angles: demographic implications for sources and dynamics of conflict, and demographic influences on national power. The chapter concludes by discussing areas in which demographics could influence national security studies and policies.

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Sciubba, J.D., Hwang, S. (2022). Population and National Security. In: May, J.F., Goldstone, J.A. (eds) International Handbook of Population Policies. International Handbooks of Population, vol 11. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-02040-7_34

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