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A More Sustainable Path to 2050

Science shows us a clear path to 2050 in which both nature and 10 billion people can thrive together.

August 30, 2019

Written for The Nature Conservancy Magazine Fall 2019 issue by Heather Tallis, former lead scientist for TNC.

A few years ago The Nature Conservancy began a process of reassessing its vision and goals for prioritizing its work around the globe. The resulting statement called for a world where “nature and people thrive, and people act to conserve nature for its own sake and its ability to fulfill and enrich our lives.”

That sounds like a sweet future, but if you’re a scientist, like I am, you immediately start to wonder what that statement means in a practical sense. Could we actually get there? Is it even possible for people and nature to thrive together?

Our leaders had the same question. In fact, when the vision statement was first presented at a board meeting, our president leaned over and asked me if we had the science to support it.

“No,” I said. “But we can try to figure it out.”

There is a way to sustain nature and 10 billion people.

Explore the path to a better world. Just 3 changes yield an entirely different future.

Ultimately, I assembled a collaborative team of researchers to take a hard look at whether it really is possible to do better for both people and nature: Can we have a future where people get the food, energy and economic growth they need without sacrificing more nature?

Modeling the Status Quo: What the World Will Look Like in 2050

Working with peers at the University of Minnesota and 11 other universities, think tanks and nonprofits, we started by looking into what experts predict the world will look like in 2050 in terms of population growth and economic expansion. The most credible projections estimate that human population will increase from about 7 billion people today to 9.7 billion by 2050, and the global economy will be three times as large as it is today.

Our next step was to create a set of mathematical models analyzing how that growth will influence demand for food, energy and water.

We first asked how nature will be doing in 2050 if we just keep doing things the way we’ve been doing them. To answer this, we assumed that expanding croplands and pastures would be carved out of natural lands, the way they are today. And we didn’t put any new restrictions on the burning of fossil fuels. We called this the “business as usual” scenario. It’s the path we’re on today. On this current path, most of the world’s energy—about 76%—will come from burning fossil fuels. This will push the Earth’s average temperature up by about 5.8 degrees Fahrenheit, driving more severe weather, droughts, fires and other destructive patterns. That dirty energy also will expose half of the global population to dangerous levels of air pollution.

Dig into the Research

Explore the models behind the two paths to 2050 and download the published findings.

We first asked how nature will be doing in 2050 if we just keep doing things the way we’ve been doing them.

Meanwhile, the total amount of cropland will increase by about the size of the state of Colorado. Farms will also suffer from increasing water stress—meaning, simply, there won’t be enough water to easily supply agricultural needs and meet the water requirements of nearby cities, towns and wildlife.

In this business-as-usual scenario, fishing worldwide is left to its own devices and there are no additional measures in place to protect nature beyond what we have today. As a result, annual fish catches decline by 11% as fisheries are pushed to the brink by unsustainable practices. On land, we end up losing 257 million more hectares (about 10 Colorados) of our native forests and grasslands. Freshwater systems suffer, too, as droughts and water consumption, especially for agriculture, increase.

Overall, the 2050 predicted by this business-as-usual model is a world of scarcity, where neither nature nor people are thriving. The future is pretty grim under this scenario—it’s certainly not a world that any of us would want to live in.

We wanted to know, “does it really have to be this way?”

Modeling a More Sustainable 2050

Next, we used our model to test whether predicted growth by 2050 really requires such an outcome. In this version of the future, we allowed the global economy and the population to grow in exactly the same manner, but we adjusted variables to include more sustainability measures.

The 2050 predicted by the business-as-usual model is a world of scarcity, where neither nature nor people are thriving. The future is pretty grim under this scenario—it’s certainly not a world that any of us would want to live in.

We didn’t go crazy with the sustainability scenario. We didn’t assume that everyone was going to become a vegan or start driving hydrogen cell cars tomorrow. Instead, the model allowed people to continue doing the basic things we’re doing today, but to do them a little differently and to adopt some green technologies that already exist a little bit faster.

In this sustainable future, we limited global warming to 2.9 degrees Fahrenheit, which would force societies to reduce fossil fuel consumption to just 13% of total energy production. That means quickly adopting clean energy, which will increase the amount of land needed for wind, solar and other renewable energy development. But many of the new wind and solar plants can be built on land that has already been developed or degraded, such as rooftops and abandoned farm fields. This will help reduce the pressure to develop new energy sources in natural areas.

We also plotted out some changes in how food is produced. We assumed each country would still grow the same basic suite of crops, but to conserve water, fertilizer and land, we assumed that those crops would be planted in the growing regions where they are most suited. For example, in the United States we wouldn’t grow as much cotton in Arizona’s deserts or plant thirsty alfalfa in the driest parts of California’s San Joaquin Valley. We also assumed that successful fishery policies in use in some places today could be implemented all over the world.

Under this sustainability scenario, we required that countries meet the target of protecting 17% of each ecoregion, as set by the Convention on Biological Diversity. Only about half that much is likely to be protected under the business-as-usual scenario, so this is a direct win for nature.

What 2050 Could Look Like

The difference in this path to 2050 was striking. The number of additional people who will be exposed to dangerous levels of air pollution declines to just 7% of the planet’s population, or 656 million, compared with half the global population, or 4.85 billion people, in our business-as-usual scenario. Air pollution is already one of the top killers globally, so reducing this health risk is a big deal. Limiting climate change also reduces water scarcity and the frequency of destructive storms and wildfires, while staving off the projected widespread loss of plant and animal species (including my son’s favorite animal, the pika, that’s already losing its mountain habitat because of climate change).

In the sustainability scenario we still produce enough food for humanity, but we need less land and water to do it. So the total amount of land under agricultural production actually decreases by seven times the area of Colorado, and the number of cropland acres located in water-stressed basins declines by 30% compared with business as usual. Finally, we see a 26% increase in fish landings compared to 2010, once all fisheries are properly managed.

Although the land needed for wind and solar installations does grow substantially, we still keep over half of nearly all the world’s habitat types intact, and despite growth in cities, food production and energy needs, we end up with much more of the Earth’s surface left for nature than we would under the business-as-usual scenario.

Our modeling research let us answer our question. Yes, a world where people and nature thrive is entirely possible. But it’s not inevitable. Reaching this sustainable future will take hard work—and we need to get started immediately.

3 Sustainable Changes To Make Now

That’s where organizations like TNC come in. The Conservancy is working on strategies with governments and businesses to adopt sustainable measures, providing near- and long-term benefits to society as a whole. Our research shows there’s at least one path to a more sustainable world in 2050, and that major advances can be made if all parts of society focus their efforts on three changes.

First, we need to ramp up clean energy and site it on lands that have already been developed or degraded. In the Mojave Desert, for instance, TNC has identified some 1.4 million acres of former ranchlands, mines and other degraded areas that would be ideal for solar development. We need to do much more to remove the policy and economic barriers that still make a transition to clean energy hard. Technology is no longer the major limiting factor. We are.

The most critical action each of us can take is to support global leaders who have a plan for stopping climate change in our lifetimes.

Second, we need to grow more food using less land and water. One way to do that is by raising crops in places that are best suited for them. The Conservancy has been piloting this, too. In Arizona, TNC partnered with local farmers in the Verde River Valley to help them switch from growing thirsty crops like alfalfa and corn in the heat of the summer to growing malt barley, which can be harvested earlier in the season with less draw on precious water supplies. This is not a revolutionary change—the same farmers are still growing crops on the same land—but it can have a revolutionary impact.

Finally, we need to end overfishing. The policy tools to do so have been available for many years. What we must do now is get creative about how we get those policies adopted and enforced. One example I have been impressed by is our work in Mexico, where TNC is involved in looking at the root causes of what’s limiting good fishing behavior. The answer is unexpected: social security debt that many fishers have accrued by being off the books for many years. The Conservancy is exploring an ambitious partnership and a novel financial mechanism that could forgive this debt and persuade more fishers to report their catch and adopt sustainability measures.

The Most Important Change Now: Clean Energy

These are just a few examples from North America. There are many more from around the world. To achieve a more sustainable future, governments, industry and civic institutions everywhere will have to make substantial changes—and the most important one right now is to make a big investment in clean energy over the next 10 years. That’s a short timeline, but not an impossible one. I don’t like what I’m seeing yet, but I’m hopeful. It took the United States just a decade to reach the moon, once the country put its mind to the goal. And solar energy is already cheaper (nearly half the price per megawatt) than coal, and outpacing it for new capacity creation—something no one predicted would happen this fast.

We need to do much more to remove the policy and economic barriers that still make a transition to clean energy hard. Technology is no longer the major limiting factor. We are.

How will we get there? By far the most critical action each of us can take is to support global leaders who have a plan for stopping climate change in our lifetimes. Climate may not feel like the most pressing issue at times—what with the economy, health care, education and other issues taking up headlines. But the science is clear: We’ve got 10 years to get our emissions under control. That’s it.

We’ve already begun to see the impacts of climate change as more communities face a big uptick in the severity and frequency of droughts, floods, wildfires, hurricanes and other disasters. Much worse is on the way if we don’t make the needed changes. It’s been easy for most of us to sit back and expect that climate change will only affect someone else, far away. But that’s what the people in Arkansas, California, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Nebraska, New York, Oklahoma, Oregon, Texas, Washington, the Dominican Republic, the U.S. Virgin Islands, Mexico, the United Kingdom, the Philippines, India and Mozambique thought. Every one of these places—and many more—have seen one of the worst disasters on its historic record in the past 10 years.

There are so many paths we could take to 2050. Clearly, some are better than others. We get to choose. Which one do you want to take?

Stand up for a More Sustainable Future

Join The Nature Conservancy as we call on leaders to support science-backed solutions.

Getting to Sustainability

Carbon Capture

The most powerful carbon capture technology is cheap, readily available and growing all around us: Trees and plants.

Energy Sprawl Solutions

We can ramp up clean energy worldwide and site it wisely to limit the effect on wildlife.

Fishing for Better Data

Electronic monitoring can make fisheries more sustainable.

What Will Life on Earth Be Like in 2050?

Scientists Look Ahead Five Decades In State-Of-The-Planet Report, Explore Ways To Solve Earth's Problems

Washington, D.C.

January 19, 2006

Megan Rabbitt

[email protected]

The number of extreme events, such as hurricanes and famine, affecting at least one million people will increase over the next 45 years if a certain scenario of world development plays out. Demand for water will increase enormously — between 30% and 85% — especially in Africa and Asia, by the year 2050. But human health may improve as public health measures advance vaccine development and lessen the impact of epidemic diseases such as HIV/AIDS. These are just a few of the many findings of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA) published in a 4-volume set by Island Press and released today.

The MA is the product of a 4-year global research initiative, commissioned by the United Nations, in which 1,300 scientists from 95 nations explore the complex interactions between human well-being and the environment.

“The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment tells us that there is an inextricable link between the health of humans and the health of the planet. We can no longer ignore the enormous economic and social benefits, such as climate regulation and water purification, provided by nature’s fragile ecosystems,” said Timothy E. Wirth, President of the United Nations Foundation. “The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment is an extensively researched, scientifically grounded roadmap for why and how we should slow or reverse today’s ecosystem degradation and chart a path toward sustainable human development.”

The MA looks ahead 50 years from the year 2000 to paint four alternate pictures, or scenarios, of life on earth. Current estimates of 3 billion more people and a quadrupling of the world economy by 2050 show that our consumption of biological and physical resources will skyrocket putting much more pressure on ecosystems. But the scenarios demonstrate that the condition of ecosystems in the future could be significantly worse or better than in the present – depending on policy choices. For example, wise use of environmental technology, investing in education and health, and reducing poverty can reduce pressure on ecosystems.

“Despite what looks like steady global decline, this is a story of hope. The MA gives us a powerful way to explore the possible impacts of broad policy directions for life on Earth and tells us that changes in policy can make a difference,” said Dr. Stephen Carpenter, Professor of Limnology at the University of Wisconsin and one of the chief authors of the MA.

For example, MA scientists examine how the problem of excess nutrients in the Gulf of Mexico will change under each of the scenarios in order to identify the best approach to reducing the Gulf’s dead zone, caused by decades-old land use decisions. With more sophisticated management of the delta and main stem and better coordination between upstream and downstream, the dead zone would shrink, according to one scenario. Another scenario shows that a decrease in global trade would boost agricultural production in the U.S. and, combined with other factors, would mean that more nutrients would enter the Mississippi River and flow to the Gulf, widening the dead zone.

“Many of the policies identified by the MA as positive for both the environment and mankind are used somewhere today. So if we have the political will, we have the ability to implement them on a global scale,” added Carpenter.

The four scenarios are descriptions of plausible futures – based on changes in such factors as economic and population growth, climate change, and trade – told from the point of view of someone looking back from 2050 at what has happened in the world since 2000.

If certain assumptions play out by 2050, according to the MA, water will be more plentiful in nearly all regions because of climate change, but pressure on ecosystems to provide water to meet growing demand increases. Food security is likely to remain out of reach for many people, despite increasing food supply, but child malnutrition, while not eradicated, will likely drop over the coming decades.

By the end of the century, climate change may be the predominant driver of biodiversity loss and changes in ecosystem services globally. The Earth’s surface temperature is projected to increase 2.0 – 6.4 degrees Celsius bringing more incidents of floods and droughts. Sea levels will rise (50 – 70 centimeters by 2100). Biodiversity damage will grow worldwide as the rate of change in climate escalates.

“Ecosystem services have dramatically improved human wellbeing over the past centuries. People are better nourished and live longer and healthier lives than ever before, incomes have risen, and political institutions are more open,” stated Dr. Walter Reid, Director of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and Professor with the Institute for the Environment at Stanford University. “But these gains have been achieved at a growing cost. It’s now time for us to measure the economic value of these services so we can make better decisions about our future.”

“Payments for ecosystem services can be an effective way to protect services that people rely on, such as clean water, while also protecting the environment,” said Dr. Prabhu Pingali of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. “By placing a monetary value on these services, we will be smarter about using them while creating alternative sources of income for people, from farmers in the United States to tribes in developing countries.”

Three parts of the world may undergo faster changes in ecosystems than other regions and should be closely monitored by scientists, according to the MA. For example, Central Africa could see a rapid increase in demand for food and water which will intensify farming and raise the risk of water contamination from fertilizers and pesticides. Other hot spots are the Middle East, where rapid population growth could increase dependence on food imports, and South Asia where deforestation and industrial farming may “break” the region’s ecosystems.

The MA represents the first time scientists have looked at how the health of the environment contributes to human well-being and how policy decisions we make today shape the world of tomorrow. It is also the first time that scientists have examined changes – not just to nature – but to the benefits people receive from nature (identified as ‘ecosystem services’ in the MA), such as providing food, filtering air and water, controlling disease, building soil, pollinating crops and aesthetic and spiritual benefits.

What if we did everything right? This is what the world could look like in 2050

According to studies, these accumulations of ice are thawing at a pace so fast that they could disappear in 25 years. Image:  REUTERS/Marcos Brindicci (ARGENTINA) - GM1E5CG0XS301

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Tom rivett-carnac.

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This is an extract from the World Economic Forum's Book Club pick for March 2020: The Future We Choose by Christiana Figueres and Tom Rivett-Carnac. Join our Book Club to discuss.

The World We Are Creating

It is 2050. Beyond the emissions reductions registered in 2015, no further efforts were made to control emissions. We are heading for a world that will be more than 3 degrees warmer by 2100.

The first thing that hits you is the air.

The World Economic Forum launched its official Book Club on Facebook in April 2018. Readers worldwide are invited to join and discuss a variety of books, both fiction and non-fiction. It is a private Facebook group dedicated to discussing one book every month.

Each month, we announce a new book on our social media channels. We then publish an extract and begin a chapter-by-chapter discussion with group members. Selected comments and questions are sent to the author, who in return sends us a video response.

Unlike other book clubs, the group features the direct involvement of the authors, giving you - our global audience with members all around the globe - a chance to directly connect with some of the most influential thinkers and experts in the world.

We have featured authors such as Steven Pinker, Elif Shafak, Yuval Noah Harari, and Melinda Gates.

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In many places around the world, the air is hot, heavy, and depending on the day, clogged with particulate pollution. Your eyes often water. Your cough never seems to disappear. You think about some countries in Asia, where out of consideration sick people used to wear white masks to protect others from airborne infection. Now you wear a daily mask to protect yourself from air pollution. You can no longer walk out your front door and breathe fresh air: there is none. Instead, before opening doors or windows in the morning, you check your phone to see what the air quality will be. Everything might look fine— sunny and clear— but you know better. When storms and heat waves overlap and cluster, the air pollution and intensified surface ozone levels make it dangerous to go outside without a specially designed face mask (which only some can afford).

Southeast Asia and Central Africa lose more lives to filthy air than do Europe or the United States. There few people work outdoors anymore, and even indoors the air tastes slightly acidic, making you feel nauseated throughout the day. China stopped burning coal ten years ago, but that hasn’t made much difference in air quality around the world because you are still breathing dangerous exhaust fumes from millions of cars and buses everywhere. China has experimented with seeding rain clouds— the process of artificially inducing rain— hoping to wash pollution out of the sky, but results are mixed. Seeding clouds to artificially create more rain is difficult and unreliable, and even the wealthiest countries cannot achieve consistent results. In Europe and Asia, the practice has triggered international incidents because even the most skilled experts can’t control where the rain will fall, never mind that acid rain is deleterious to crops, wreaking havoc on food supply. As a result, crops are increasingly grown under cover to protect them from the weather, a trend that will only get stronger.

Our world is getting hotter. Over the next two decades, projections tell us that temperatures in some areas of the globe will rise even higher, an irreversible development utterly beyond our control. The world’s ecosystems have stopped absorbing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and are, on balance, emitting it. Oceans, forests, plants, trees, and soil had for many years absorbed half the carbon dioxide we spewed out. Now there are few forests left, most of them either logged or consumed by wildfire, and the permafrost is belching greenhouse gases into an already overburdened atmosphere.

The increasing heat of the Earth is suffocating us, and in five to ten years, vast swaths of the planet will be uninhabitable. By 2100, Australia, North Africa, and parts of the western United States might be entirely abandoned. Now everyone knows what the future holds for their children and grandchildren: tipping point after tipping point has been reached until eventually there will be no more civilization. Humans will be cast to the winds again, gathering in small tribes, hunkered down and living on whatever patch of land might sustain them.

The planet has already reached several such tipping points. First was the vanishing of coral reefs. Some of us still remember diving amid majestic coral reefs, brimming with multicolored fish of all shapes and sizes. Corals are now almost gone. The Great Barrier Reef in Australia is the largest aquatic cemetery in the world. Efforts have been made to grow artificial corals farther north and south from the equator where the water is a bit cooler, but these efforts have failed, and marine life has not returned. Soon there will be no reefs anywhere— it is only a matter of a few years before the last 10 percent dies off.

The second tipping point was the melting of the ice sheets in the Arctic. There is no summer Arctic sea ice anymore because warming is worse at the poles— between 6 and 8 degrees higher than other areas. The melting happened silently in that cold place far north of most of the inhabited world, but its effects were soon noticed. The Great Melting was an accelerant of further global warming. The white ice used to reflect the sun’s heat, but now it’s gone, so the dark sea water absorbs more heat, expanding the mass of water and pushing sea levels even higher. More moisture in the air and higher sea surface temperatures have caused a surge in extreme hurricanes and tropical storms. Recently, coastal cities in Bangladesh, Mexico, and the United States have suffered brutal infrastructure destruction and extreme flooding, killing many thousands and displacing millions. This happens with increasing frequency now. Every day, because of rising water levels, some part of the world must evacuate to higher ground. Every day the news shows images of mothers with babies strapped to their backs, wading through floodwaters, and homes ripped apart by vicious currents that resemble mountain rivers. News stories tell of people living in houses with water up to their ankles because they have nowhere else to go, their children coughing and wheezing because of the mold growing in their beds, insurance companies declaring bankruptcy leaving survivors without resources to rebuild their lives. Contaminated water supplies, sea salt intrusions, and agricultural runoff are the order of the day. Because multiple disasters are always happening simultaneously in every country, it can take weeks or even months for basic food and water relief to reach areas pummeled by extreme floods. Diseases such as malaria, dengue, cholera, respiratory illnesses, and malnutrition are rampant.

Now all eyes are on the western Antarctic ice sheet. If and when it disappears, it could release a deluge of freshwater into the oceans, raising sea levels by over five meters. Cities like Miami, Shanghai, and Dhaka will be uninhabitable—ghostly Atlantises dotting the coasts of each continent, their skyscrapers jutting out of the water, their people evacuated or dead.

Those around the world who chose to remain on the coast because it had always been their home have more to deal with than rising water and floods— they must now witness the demise of a way of life-based on fishing. As oceans have absorbed carbon dioxide, the water has become more acidic, and the pH levels are now so hostile to marine life that all countries have banned fishing, even in international waters. Many people insist that the few fish that are left should be enjoyed while they last— an argument, hard to fault in many parts of the world, that applies to so much that is vanishing.

As devastating as rising oceans have been, droughts and heatwaves inland have created a special hell. Vast regions have succumbed to severe aridification followed by desertification, and wildlife has become a distant memory. These places can barely support human life; their aquifers dried up long ago, and their groundwater is almost gone. Marrakech and Volgograd are on the verge of becoming deserts. Hong Kong, Barcelona, and Abu Dhabi have been desalinating seawater for years, desperately trying to keep up with the constant wave of immigration from areas that have gone completely dry.

The Sahara Desert, which was once contained in Africa, now extends to Europe, into areas of Spain, Greece, and southern France. Extreme heat is on the march. If you live in Paris, you endure summer temperatures that regularly rise to 44 degrees Celsius (111 degrees Fahrenheit). This is no longer the headline-grabbing event it would have been thirty years ago. Everyone stays inside, drinks water, and dreams of air conditioning. You lie on your couch, a cold wet towel over your face, and try to rest without dwelling on the poor farmers on the outskirts of town who, despite recurrent droughts and wildfires, are still trying to grow grapes, olives, or soy— luxuries for the rich, not for you.

You try not to think about the 2 billion people who live in the hottest parts of the world, where, for upward of forty-five days per year, temperatures skyrocket to 60 degrees Celsius (140 degrees Fahrenheit)— a point at which the human body cannot be outside for longer than six hours because it loses the ability to cool itself down. Places such as central India are becoming uninhabitable. For a while people tried to carry on, but when you can’t work outside, when you can fall asleep only at four a.m. for a couple of hours because that’s the coolest part of the day, there’s not much you can do but leave. Mass migrations to less hot rural areas are beset by a host of refugee problems, civil unrest, and bloodshed over diminished water availability.

Inland glaciers around the world are almost gone. The millions who depended on the Himalayan, Alpine, and Andean glaciers to regulate water availability throughout the year are in a state of constant emergency: there is no more snow turning to ice atop mountains in the winter, so there is no more gradual melting for the spring and summer. Now there are either torrential rains leading to flooding or prolonged droughts. The most vulnerable communities with the least resources have already seen what ensues when water is scarce: sectarian violence, mass migration, and death.

Even in some parts of the United States, there are fiery conflicts over water, battles between the rich who are willing to pay for as much water as they want and everyone else demanding equal access to the life-enabling resource. The taps in nearly all public facilities are locked, and those in restrooms are coin-operated. At the federal level, Congress is in an uproar over water redistribution: states with less water demand what they see as their fair share from states that have more. Government leaders have been stymied on the River and the Rio Grande shrink further. Looming on the horizon are conflicts with Mexico, no longer able to guarantee deliveries of water from the depleted Rio Conchos and Rio Grande. Similar disputes have arisen in Peru, China, and Russia.

Food production swings wildly from month to month, season to season, depending on where you live. More people are starving than ever before. Climate zones have shifted, so some new areas have become available for agriculture (Alaska, the Arctic), while others have dried up (Mexico, California). Still others are unstable because of the extreme heat, never mind flooding, wildfire, and tornadoes. This makes the food supply in general highly unpredictable. One thing hasn’t changed, though— if you have money, you have access. Global trade has slowed as countries such as China stop exporting and seek to hold on to their own resources. Disasters and wars rage, choking off trade routes. The tyranny of supply and demand is now unforgiving; because of its scarcity, food is now wildly expensive. Income inequality has always existed, but it has never been this stark or this dangerous.

Whole countries suffer from epidemics of stunting and malnutrition. Reproduction has slowed overall, but most acutely in those countries where food scarcity is dire. Infant mortality is sky high, and international aid has proven to be politically impossible to defend in light of mass poverty. Countries with enough food are resolute about holding on to it.

In some places, the inability to gain access to such basics as wheat, rice, or sorghum has led to economic collapse and civil unrest more quickly than even the most pessimistic sociologists had previously imagined. Scientists tried to develop varieties of staples that could stand up to drought, temperature fluctuations, and salt, but we started too late. Now there simply aren’t enough resilient varieties to feed the population. As a result, food riots, coups, and civil wars throw the world’s most vulnerable from the frying pan into the fire. As developed countries seek to seal their borders from mass migration, they too feel the consequences. Stock markets are crashing, currencies are wildly fluctuating, and the European Union has disbanded.

As committed as nations are to keeping wealth and resources within their borders, they’re determined to keep people out. Most countries’ armies are now just highly militarized border patrols. Lockdown is the goal, but it hasn’t been a total success. Desperate people will always find a way. Some countries have been better global Good Samaritans than others, but even they have now effectively shut their borders, their wallets, and their eyes.

When the equatorial belt became mostly uninhabitable just a few years ago, you watched the news with disbelieving eyes. Undulating crowds of migrants, half a billion people, were moving north from Central America toward Mexico and the United States. Others moved south toward the tips of Chile and Argentina. The same scenes played out across Europe and Asia. Most people who lived between the Tropic of Cancer and the Tropic of Capricorn were driving or walking away in a giant band of humanity. Enormous political pressure was placed on northern and southern countries to either welcome migrants or keep them out. Some countries let people in, but only under conditions approaching indentured servitude. It will be years before the stranded migrants are able to find asylum or settle into new refugee cities that have formed along the borders.

Even if you live in areas with more temperate climates such as Canada and Scandinavia, you are still extremely vulnerable. Severe tornadoes, flash floods, wildfires, mudslides, and blizzards are always in the back of your mind. Depending on where you live, you have a fully stocked storm cellar, an emergency go-bag in your car, or a six-foot fire moat around your house. People are glued to oncoming weather reports. No one shuts their phones off at night. When the emergency hits, you may only have minutes to respond. The alert systems set up by the government are basic and subject to glitches and irregularities depending on access to technology. The rich, who subscribe to private, reliable satellite-based alert systems, sleep better.

The weather is unavoidable, but lately the news about what’s going on at the borders has become too much for most people to endure. Because of the alarming spike in suicides, and under increasing pressure from public health officials, news organizations have decreased the number of stories devoted to genocide, slave trading, and refugee virus outbreaks. You can no longer trust the news. Social media, long the grim source of live feeds and disaster reporting, is brimming with conspiracy theories and doctored videos. Overall, the news has taken a strange, seemingly controlled turn toward distorting reality and spinning a falsely positive narrative.

Everyone living within a stable country is physically safe, yes, but the psychological toll is mounting. With each new tipping point passed, they feel hope slipping away. There is no chance of stopping the runaway warming of our planet, and no doubt we are slowly but surely heading toward human extinction. And not just because it’s too hot. Melting permafrost is also releasing ancient microbes that today’s humans have never been exposed to— and as a result have no resistance to. Diseases spread by mosquitoes and ticks are rampant as these species flourish in the changed climate, spreading to previously safe parts of the planet, overwhelming us. Worse still, the public health crisis of antibiotic resistance has only intensified as the population has grown denser in the last inhabitable areas and temperatures continue to rise.

The demise of the human species is being discussed more and more— its trajectory seems locked in. The only uncertainty is how long we’ll last, how many more generations will see the light of day. Suicides are the most obvious manifestation of the prevailing despair, but there are other indications: a sense of bottomless loss, unbearable guilt, and fierce resentment at previous generations who did nothing to ward off this final, unstoppable calamity.

The World We Must Create

It is 2050. We have been successful at halving emissions every decade since 2020. We are heading for a world that will be no more than 1.5 degrees Celsius warmer by 2100.

In most places in the world, the air is moist and fresh, even in cities. It feels a lot like walking through a forest, and very likely this is exactly what you are doing. The air is cleaner than it has been since before the Industrial Revolution.

You have trees to thank for that. They are everywhere.

It wasn’t the single solution we required, but the proliferation of trees bought us the time we needed to vanquish carbon emissions. Corporate donations and public money funded the biggest tree- planting campaign in history. When we started, it was purely practical, a tactic to combat climate change by relocating the carbon: the trees took carbon dioxide out of the air, released oxygen, and put the carbon back where it belongs, in the soil. This of course helped to diminish climate change, but the benefits were even greater. On every sensory level, the ambient feeling of living on what has again become a green planet has been transformative, especially in cities. Cities have never been better places to live. With many more trees and far fewer cars, it has been possible to reclaim whole streets for urban agriculture and for children’s play. Every vacant lot, every grimy unused alley, has been repurposed and turned into a shady grove. Every rooftop has been converted to either a vegetable or a floral garden. Windowless buildings that were once scrawled with graffiti are instead carpeted with verdant vines.

The greening movement in Spain had begun as an effort to combat rising temperatures. Because of Madrid’s latitude, it is one of the driest cities in Europe. And even though the city now has a grip on its emissions, it was previously at risk of desertification. Because of the “heat island” effect of cities— buildings trap warmth and dark, paved surfaces absorb heat from the sun— Madrid, home to more than 6 million people, was several degrees warmer than the countryside just a few miles away. In addition, air pollution was leading to a rising incidence of premature births, and a spike in deaths was linked to cardiovascular and respiratory illnesses. With a health care system already strained by the arrival of subtropical diseases like dengue fever and malaria, government officials and citizens rallied. Madrid made dramatic efforts to reduce the number of vehicles and create a “green envelope” around the city to help with cooling, oxygenating, and filtering pollution. Plazas were repaved with porous material to capture rainwater; all black roofs were painted white; and plants were omnipresent. The plants cut noise, released oxygen, insulated south- facing walls, shaded pavements, and released water vapor into the air. The massive effort was a huge success and was replicated all over the world. Madrid’s economy boomed as its expertise put it on the cutting edge of a new industry.

Most cities found that lower temperatures raised the standard of living. There are still slums, but the trees, largely responsible for countering the temperature rise in most places, have made things far more bearable for all.

Reimagining and restructuring cities was crucial to solving the climate challenge puzzle. But further steps had to be taken, which meant that global rewilding efforts had to reach well beyond the cities. The forest cover worldwide is now 50 percent, and agriculture has evolved to become more tree-based. The result is that many countries are unrecognizable, in a good way. No one seems to miss wideopen plains or monocultures. Now we have shady groves of nut and fruit orchards, timberland interspersed with grazing, parkland areas that spread for miles, new havens for our regenerated population of pollinators.

Luckily for the 75 percent of the population who live in cities, new electric railways crisscross interior landscapes. In the United States, high- speed rail networks on the East and West coasts have replaced the vast majority of domestic flights, with East coast connectors to Atlanta and Chicago. Because flight speeds have slowed down to gain fuel efficiency, passenger bullet trains make some journeys even faster and with no emissions whatsoever. The U.S. Train Initiative was a monumental public project that sparked the economy for a decade. Replacing miles and miles of interstate highways with a new transportation system created millions of jobs— for train technology experts, engineers, and construction workers who designed and built raised rail tracks to circumvent floodplains. This massive effort helped to reeducate and retrain many of those displaced by the dying fossil fuel economy. It also introduced a new generation of workers to the excitement and innovation of the new climate economy.

Running parallel to this mega public works effort was an increasingly confident race to harness the power of renewable sources of energy. A major part of the shift to net- zero emissions was a focus on electricity; achieving the goal required not only an overhaul of existing infrastructure but also a structural shift. In some ways, breaking up grids and decentralizing power proved easy. We no longer burn fossil fuels. There is some nuclear energy in those countries that can afford the expensive technology,6 but most of our energy now comes from renewable sources like wind, solar, geothermal, and hydro. All homes and buildings produce their own electricity— every available surface is covered with solar paint that contains millions of nanoparticles, which harvest energy from the sunlight, and every windy spot has a wind turbine. If you live on a particularly sunny or windy hill, your house might harvest more energy than it can use, in which case the energy will simply flow back to the smart grid. Because there is no combustion cost, energy is basically free. It is also more abundant and more efficiently used than ever.

Smart tech prevents unnecessary energy consumption, as artificial intelligence units switch off appliances and machines when not in use. The efficiency of the system means that, with a few exceptions, our quality of life has not suffered. In many respects, it has improved.

For the developed world, the wide-ranging transition to renewable energy was at times uncomfortable, as it often involved retrofitting old infrastructure and doing things in new ways. But for the developing world, it was the dawn of a new era. Most of the infrastructure that it needed for economic growth and poverty alleviation was built according to the new standards: low carbon emissions and high resilience. In remote areas, the billion people who had no electricity at the start of the twenty-first century now have energy generated by their own rooftop solar modules or by wind-powered minigrids in their communities. This new access opened the door to so much more. Entire populations have leaped forward with improved sanitation, education, and health care. People who had struggled to get clean water can now provide it to their families. Children can study at night.

Remote health clinics can operate effectively. Homes and buildings all over the world are becoming self- sustaining far beyond their electrical needs. For example, all buildings now collect rainwater and manage their own water use. Renewable sources of electricity made possible localized desalination, which means clean drinking water can now be produced on-demand anywhere in the world. We also use it to irrigate hydroponic gardens, flush toilets, and shower. Overall, we’ve successfully rebuilt, reorganized, and restructured our lives to live in a more localized way. Although energy prices have dropped dramatically, we are choosing local life over long commutes. Due to greater connectivity, many people work from home, allowing for more flexibility and more time to call their own.

We are making communities stronger. As a child, you might have seen your neighbors only in passing. But now, to make things cheaper, cleaner, and more sustainable, your orientation in every part of your life is more local. Things that used to be done individually are now done communally— growing vegetables, capturing rainwater, and composting. Resources and responsibilities are shared now. At first you resisted this togetherness— you were used to doing things individually and in the privacy of your own home. But pretty quickly the camaraderie and unexpected new network of support started to feel good, something to be prized. For most people, the new way has turned out to be a better recipe for happiness.

Food production and procurement are a big part of the communal effort. When it became clear we needed to revolutionize farms, with increased community reliance on small farms. Instead of going to a big grocery store for food flown in from hundreds, if not thousands, of miles away, you buy most of your food from small local farmers and producers. Buildings, neighborhoods, and even large extended families form a food purchase group, which is how most people buy their food now. As a unit they sign up for a weekly dropoff, then distribute the food among the group members. Distribution, coordination, and management are everyone’s responsibility, which means you might be partnered with a downstairs neighbor for distribution one week and your upstairs neighbor the next.

While this community approach to food production makes things more sustainable, food is still expensive, consuming up to 30 percent of household budgets, which is why growing your own is such a necessity. In community gardens, on rooftops, at schools, and even hanging from vertical gardens on balconies, food sometimes seems to be growing everywhere.

We’ve come to realize, by growing our own, that food is expensive because it should be expensive— it takes valuable resources to grow it, after all. Water. Soil. Sweat. Time. For that reason, the most resource- depleting foods of all— animal protein and dairy products— have practically disappeared from our diets. But the plant-based replacements are so good that most of us don’t notice the absence of meat and dairy. Most young children cannot believe we used to kill any animals for food. Fish is still available, but it is farmed and yields are better managed by improved technology.

We make smarter choices about bad foods, which have become an ever- diminishing part of our diets. Government taxes on processed meats, sugars, and fatty foods helped us reduce the carbon emissions from farming. The biggest boon of all was to our collective health. Thanks to reduced cancers, heart attacks, and strokes, people are living longer, and health services around the world cost less and less. In fact, a huge portion of the costs of combating climate change were recuperated by governments’ savings on public health.

Along with outrageous spending on health care, gasoline and diesel cars are also anachronisms. Most countries banned their manufacture in 2030, but it took another fifteen years to get the internal combustion engine off the road completely. Now they are seen only in transport museums or at special rallies where classic car owners pay an offset fee to allow them to drive a few short miles around the track. And of course, they are all hauled in on the backs of huge electric trucks.

When it came to making the switch, some countries were already ahead of the curve. Technology-driven countries such as Norway and bicycle-friendly nations like the Netherlands managed to impose a moratorium on cars much earlier. Unsurprisingly, the United States had the hardest time of all. First, it restricted their sale, and then it banned them from certain parts of cities— Extreme Low Emission Zones. Then came the breakthrough in the battery storage capacity of electric vehicles, the cost reductions that came from finding alternative materials for manufacture, and finally the complete overhaul of the charging and parking infrastructure. This allowed people easier access to cheap power for their electric vehicles. Even better, car batteries are now bi-directionally connected with the electric grid, so they can either charge from the grid or provide power to the grid when they aren’t being driven. This helps back up the smart grid that is running on renewable energy.

The ubiquity and ease of electric vehicles were alluring, but satisfaction of our appetite for speed finally did the trick. Supposedly, to stop a bad habit you have to replace it with one that is more salubrious or at least as enjoyable. At first China dominated the manufacture of electric vehicles, but soon U.S. companies started making vehicles that were more desirable than ever before. Even some classic cars got an upgrade, switching from combustion to electric engines that could go from zero to sixty mph in 3.5 seconds. What’s strange is that it took us so long to realize that the electric motor is simply a better way of powering vehicles. It gives you more torque, more speed when you need it, and the ability to recapture energy when you brake, and it requires dramatically less maintenance.

As people from rural areas moved to the cities, they had less need even for electric vehicles. In cities it’s now easy to get around— transportation is frictionless. When you take the electric train, you don’t have to fumble around for a metro card or wait in line to pay— the system tracks your location, so it knows where you got on and where you got off, and it deducts money from your account accordingly. We also share cars without thinking twice. In fact, regulating and ensuring the safety of driverless ride-sharing was the biggest transportation hurdle for cities to overcome. The goal has been to eliminate private ownership of vehicles by 2050 in major metropolitan areas. We’re not quite there yet, but we’re making progress.

We have also reduced land transport needs. Threedimensional (3D) printers are readily available, cutting down on what people need to purchase away from home. Drones organized along aerial corridors are now delivering packages, further reducing the need for vehicles. Thus we are currently narrowing roads, eliminating parking spaces, and investing in urban planning projects that make it easier to walk and bike in the city. Parking garages are used only for ride-sharing, electric vehicle charging, and storage— those ugly concrete stacking systems and edifices of yore are now enveloped in green. Cities now seem designed for the coexistence of people and nature.

International air travel has been transformed. Biofuels have replaced jet fuel. Communications technology has advanced so much that we can participate virtually in meetings anywhere in the world without traveling. Air travel still exists, but it is used more sparingly and is extremely costly. Because work is now increasingly decentralized and can often be done from anywhere, people save and plan for “slow- cations”— international trips that last weeks or months instead of days. If you live in the United States and want to visit Europe, you might plan to stay there for several months or more, working your way across the continent using local, zero-emissions transportation.

While we may have successfully reduced carbon emissions, we’re still dealing with the after-effects of record levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. The long-living greenhouse gases have nowhere to go other than the alreadyloaded atmosphere, so they are still causing increasingly extreme weather— though it’s less extreme than would have been had we continued to burn fossil fuels. Glaciers and Arctic ice are still melting, and the sea is still rising. Severe droughts and desertification are occurring in the western United States, the Mediterranean, and parts of China. Ongoing extreme weather and resource degradation continue to multiply existing disparities in income, public health, food security, and water availability. But now governments have recognized climate change factors for the threat multipliers that they are. That awareness allows us to predict downstream problems and head them off before they become humanitarian crises. So while many people remain at risk every day, the situation is not as drastic or chaotic as it might have been. Economies in developing nations are strong, and unexpected global coalitions have formed with a renewed sense of trust. Now when a population is in need of aid, the political will and resources are available to meet that need.

The ongoing refugee situation has been escalating for decades, and it is still a major source of strife and discord. But around fifteen years ago, we stopped calling it a crisis. Countries agreed on guidelines for managing refugee influxes— how to smoothly assimilate populations, how to distribute aid and resources, and how to share the tasks within particular regions. These agreements work well most of the time, but things get thrown off balance occasionally when a country flirts with fascism for an election cycle or two.

Technology and business sectors stepped up, too, seizing the opportunity of government contracts to provide largescale solutions for distributing food and providing shelter for the newly displaced. One company invented a giant robot that could autonomously build a four-person dwelling within days. Automation and 3D printing have made it possible to quickly and affordably construct high-quality housing for refugees. The private sector has innovated with water transportation technology and sanitation solutions. Fewer tent cities and housing shortages have led to less cholera.

Everyone understands that we are all in this together. A disaster that occurs in one country is likely to occur in another in only a matter of years. It took us a while to realize that if we worked out how to save the Pacific Islands from rising sea levels this year, then we might find a way to save Rotterdam in another five years. It is in the interest of every country to bring all its resources to bear on problems across the world. For one thing, creating innovative solutions to climate challenges and beta testing them years ahead of using them is just plain smart. For another, we’re nurturing goodwill; when we need help, we know we will be able to count on others to step up.

The zeitgeist has shifted profoundly. How we feel about the world has changed, deeply. And unexpectedly, so has how we feel about one another.

When the alarm bells rang in 2020, thanks in large part to the youth movement, we realized that we suffered from too much consumption, competition, and greedy self-interest. Our commitment to these values and our drive for profit and status had led us to steamroll our environment. As a species we were out of control, and the result was the near-collapse of our world. We could no longer avoid seeing on a tangible, geophysical level that when you spurn regeneration, collaboration, and community, the consequence is impending devastation.

Extricating ourselves from self- destruction would have been impossible if we hadn’t changed our mindset and our priorities, if we hadn’t realized that doing what is good for humanity goes hand in hand with doing what is good for the Earth. The most fundamental change was that collectively— as citizens, corporations, and governments— we began adhering to a new bottom line: “Is it good for humanity whether profit is made or not?”

The climate change crisis of the beginning of the century jolted us out of our stupor. As we worked to rebuild and care for our environment, it was only natural that we also turned to each other with greater care and concern. We realized that the perpetuation of our species was about war more than saving ourselves from extreme weather. It was about being good stewards of the land and of one another. When we began the fight for the fate of humanity, we were thinking only about the species’ survival, but at some point, we understood that it was as much about the fate of our humanity. We emerged from the climate crisis as more mature members of the community of life, capable of not only restoring ecosystems but also of unfolding our dormant potentials of human strength and discernment. Humanity was only ever as doomed as it believed itself to be. Vanquishing that belief was our true legacy.

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The World in 2050

Nebojsa Nakicenovic

Distinguished Emeritus Research Scholar (TISS)

The World in 2050 (TWI2050) is a global research initiative in support of a successful implementation of the United Nations’ 2030 Agenda, with the goal to provide the fact-based knowledge to support the policy process and implementation of the SDGs.

TWI2050 was launched by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), the Sustainable Development Solutions Network (SDSN), and the Stockholm Resilience Centre (SRC) . 

The Sustainable Development Goals ( SDGs ), unanimously adopted by the United Nations in September 2015, provide an aspirational narrative for the desired future for human development with an actionable agenda . The aspiration is for a world free from hunger, injustice and absolute poverty, of universal education, health and employment with inclusive economic growth, based on transparency, dignity and equity, all achieved within the boundaries of the planet. 

The urgent question now is how to act on this aspirational agenda and to have a clear understanding of the full consequences and cost of inaction and the benefits of achieving SDGs in every major region of the world.

The World in 2050 (TWI2050) is an initiative designed to help answer these questions. TWI2050 aims not only to contribute to this understanding but also develop science-based transformational and equitable pathways to sustainable development that can provide much needed information and guidance for policy makers responsible for the implementation of the SDGs.       

Project objective

The goal of the new scientific initiative TWI2050 is to provide the fact-based knowledge to support the policy process and implementation of the 2030 Agenda . TWI2050 aims to address the full spectrum of transformational challenges related to achieving the 17 SDGs in an integrated manner so as to minimize potential conflicts among them and reap the benefits of potential synergies of achieving them in unison.

The SDGs set out very clear and ambitious global goals across social, economic and environmental areas with important interactions between and among these goals (e.g., between energy and climate, between food security and ecosystems, etc.). What is lacking, but urgently required, is an assessment of the viability of achieving these multiple social-economic-environmental-planetary goals simultaneously using integrative and systemic methodological approaches. This is necessary to answer questions such as:

• How do we meet the hunger, poverty, energy, growth goals while meeting the environmental goals?
• What are the synergies and trade-offs?
• What are the costs of pursuing social goals without meeting sustainability goals and the other way around?

DOWNLOADS AND LINKS  

• TWI2050 Report @ HLPF 2020 : In 2020, the TWI2050 initiative has launched another report, emphasizing the need for sustainable innovations in a post-pandemic world.
• TWI2050 Concept Note
• TWI2050 Poster

Related news and events

• TWI2050 Report Launch @ HLPF 2020
• TWI2050 Report Launch @ HLPF 2019
• TWI2050 Report Launch @ HLPF 2018
• TWI2050 Flyer

Research Partners:

• Full list of contributors

The World in 2050: A work of folly or wisdom?

To predict the future, hamish mcrae should get his facts right about the present.

Hamish McRae's predictions are made by geography. These forecasts include: a comfortable and federal future for the United Kingdom, serenity for the Nordic countries, India growing to become the largest economy in the world and continued American success.

Imagining the future is essential to the craft of writing science fiction. Predicting the future is central to the work of many economists. There is more overlap between acts of imagination and prediction than either profession might admit.

Hamish McRae book

An understanding of the dynamics that shape our present and the use of judgment to fill the voids left by simple extrapolation are some of the common traits.

There is a critical difference. Accuracy is irrelevant to acts of imagination. It is essential to models of prediction.

So, economists face a tougher test. Their work is tested against unfolding economic events. The assumptions of their models are rigorously examined. The inner cogs of the mind of a science fiction writer are mercifully free from such scrutiny.

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The economic commentator Hamish McRae has therefore chosen the harder trade as his latest work, The World in 2050, predicts our global future.

The difficulties of such efforts are many, not least the risk that predictions can be overtaken by events. The references to the war in Ukraine must have been speedily included.

McRae uses a clear structure to confront this enormous predictive task. He begins with thematically describing the world as it is, including developments in technology, climate and governance.

This lays the foundation for predictions for different regions, from the Americas to Africa and the Middle East. The book concludes with big themes that will shape our future.

The tone of this work is positive. The broad economic prediction is that “In 2050, some two-thirds of the world’s population will be middle class or rich.” This change will not just occur within countries, the author argues that “There will be more wealthy and middle-income countries – and people – and fewer poor ones.”

The early pages of this book contain an unnerving factual error. McRae is critical of the introduction of the euro, arguing that many European problems “have stemmed from the introduction of the euro”. He predicts European decline and views divergence within the European Union as a positive development. I strongly disagree with these predictions and his assessment of Europe, but it’s the standard fare of political and economic debate.

But what is extraordinary is the conclusion that “those non-euro European economies that have performed relatively well have been the UK and Ireland”. Our euro zone membership is an essential feature of the modern Irish economy. For the writer, or his publisher, to be unaware of this or to ignore it raises troubling issues of accuracy.

This is even more extraordinary given the Irish heritage of the author. In the acknowledgments, he writes that “My interest in trying to understand how the world economy will evolve goes back to my upbringing in Ireland” and that “The further advantage in being brought up in Ireland was that, as in all small countries, you are forced to think global.”

This global appreciation is evident in an early chapter, The World We Live in Now, containing a series of mini-essays that begin with the United States and Canada and conclude with Australia. An impressive amount of information and insight is contained in each section.

The key forces of change are described, beginning with the impact of demography. By 2050, there is likely to be a global population of just under 10 billion people, an increase from 7.7 billion in 2019.

Predictions are made by geography. These forecasts include: a comfortable and federal future for the United Kingdom, serenity for the Nordic countries, India growing to become the largest economy in the world and continued American success.

The prediction for Europe is bleak, with the decline of the European Union into a looser association with diminishing political and economic power. Conversely, the Anglosphere could grow in status.

While acknowledging that “it is almost unthinkable to suggest that by 2050 Ireland will have left the EU”, a number of scenarios are suggested where this occurs. This is of little surprise given the error regarding our membership of the euro zone.

The author concludes with the case for “broadly positive outcomes for the welfare of our species and of our planet”. Sources of disruption are analysed, from American political instability to pandemics. This is followed by a description of stabilising influences, from changes in the nature of globalisation to a co-operative China.

The conclusion is unsatisfying. Many predictions are hedged, many scenarios acknowledge the use of judgment. This may be unavoidable, in our era where the pulses of change are amplified by our global interdependencies and use of communication technologies, but it frequently occurs.

I strongly differ with some of the predictions in The World in 2050, including the future of Europe and the scale of the impact of technology on our societies. But it is only with the passage of time that it will be clear whether this book is an act of folly or a work of wisdom.

Paschal Donohoe is the Minister for Finance and president of the Eurogroup

Paschal Donohoe

Paschal Donohoe, a contributor to The Irish Times, is a Fine Gael TD and Minister for Public Expenditure and Reform

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Old romantics by maggie armstrong: an audacious debut collection with a personality all its own, henry shefflin and rhys mcclenaghan celebrated in sporting poetry day ireland poems, women’s prize for fiction: anne enright and claire kilroy shortlisted, that they may face the rising sun: the best irish film in a very long time, you are here by david nicholls: a highly relatable love story of significance, ‘i’m alone pretty much all the time. the older i become, the less hopeful i am this will change’, six arrested after gardaí ‘attacked’ at site for asylum seekers in wicklow, td’s daughter not allowed make savings investment because of family relationship to him, ‘she will live on in the hearts and minds of her many family and friends’: cyclist killed in dún laoghaire crash named, ‘more people are going to die in that hospital’: aoife johnston’s parents call for action after inquest verdict, latest stories, martyn turner, mcgurk’s bar massacre inquest ordered, manchester city fire title warning with phil foden on song against brighton, after a constructive start, trump yawns, sits back and surrenders control.

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What will the world be like in 2050?

• global issues

THE WORLD IN 2050

THE WORLD IN 2050 (TWI2050)

• How do we meet the hunger, poverty, energy, growth goals while meeting the environmental goals?
• What are the synergies and trade-offs?
• What are the costs of pursuing social goals without meeting sustainability goals and the other way around?

RECENT WORK

Roadmap to 2050: A Manual for Nations to Decarbonize by Mid-Century

An Action Agenda for Sustainable Development

List of services.

The Digital Revolution has brought about rapid technological change, transforming the way societies function. This report describes how digitalization can transform the world, and how these changes can be planned for.

This report presents major challenges facing humanity and describes, through a compelling narrative from a backcasting perspective, what needs to be done now and in the future to achieve the 2030 Agenda 

A short summary of the TWI2050 project, it's objectives, and methodology. 

Life In The Future (2050) (Essay Sample)

Table of Contents

Introduction

How far into the future have you gone in your daydreaming or reflections? I recently took the time to think about what life in the future may look like.

For this essay, I asked myself, “What will life be like in 2050?” 2050 seems far away but with modern technology, economic development, scientific advances, and climate change, we will find ourselves in that day and age soon.

Want to write about life in the year 2050? You can read the essays below for your guidance. If you need extra help, think about availing our affordable essay writing services .

What will life be like in 2050 essay

The 2000s came with innovations in many fields and sectors across the world. Most notably, the Internet kicked in and revolutionized the world, connecting people globally and creating an international village of Internet citizens.

Social media took it further by establishing a platform where you could manage your network of relationships.

From 2010, more new inventions were introduced to the global population, and the trend seems to be continuing at a steady rate. Life ahead seems to hold more surprises.

This paper aims to outline possible future scenarios of what life may look like after the next few decades, specifically by 2050.

Heading into the 21st century

Space explorations.

The 21st century brought to the fore more technology-oriented inventions than ever before.

While the 20th century saw man land on the moon, the 21st century will witness man visit several of the many planets that dot the universe.

The first to be explored will be Mars, also called the Red Planet. The mission is likely to be accomplished by 2030, as planned by NASA. This will write a new chapter in history and set a precedent for future explorations by subsequent human generations.

Discovering the cure for AIDS

Moreover, increased investment in research activities is likely to pave the way for the discovery of a vaccine for Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (AIDS).

Increased acceptance of the LGBTQ+ community

Sex and gender issues are another aspect that will change by 2050.

Homosexuality has become a familiar topic of conversation in the current generation. Lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgender (LGBT) issues are slowly being talked about and recognized amid heated debates among more conservative groups.

By 2050, they are likely to be such a universally accepted community that the law will require employers across the world to set aside a percentage of their employment vacancies for LGBT candidates. Such a mandate will be implemented alongside the existing gender-based directive of the equal female-and-male employee ratio.

The digitization of media

Media technology continues to rapidly evolve. At present, social media is taking the lead in relaying quick news bits and community engagement. Without question, it poses a threat to traditional sources of media including television, newspapers, radios, and magazines.

By 2025, some traditional media sources, specifically print newspapers, will have a diminished readership as online news sites and social media will have penetrated their share of readership.

The rise of e-commerce and e-cars

Mobile phones will play a greater role in retail shopping and financial transactions. Electronic money will replace paper money.

Additionally, with declining oil reserves across the world, electric cars will step in for petrol cars in the next few decades. Consequently, there will be a major shift in job trends, as some roles will be taken over by AI or will no longer be relevant.

The ever-changing face of US politics

The United States made history in 2016 by electing a president with no prior experience in politics. The electorate is breaking away from the traditional mentality of choosing experienced politicians with track records.

To say that a female president will be elected into office after President Donald Trump’s era is not shallow speculation. By 2050, the U.S. will have tasted female leadership.

Also, if Trump’s anti-immigration policy and deportation of illegal immigrants get adequate support in subsequent leaderships, the United States may have stunted population growth and few cases of immigration. These kinds of policies will impact America’s role as a global influencer.

Global warming continues to be a problem

Finally, global warming will become an even bigger problem. We will continue to see a rise in sea levels. At the same time, pollution will damage our freshwater sources.

From another perspective, dictatorships, chiefly in Asia, will destabilize the world. North Korea, China, and other emerging nuclear-armed countries will become major security threats to the entire world.

While such countries may trigger increased regional wars, World War 3 will not occur. In addition to this, terrorist groups will dominate major regions of the world.

With many changes up ahead – good and bad – in the coming decades, it would be good to prepare and anticipate how it will personally affect us.

Life In The Future 2050 Short Essay

In this day and age where we live in a developed world, it would be so easy to let our imaginations run wild when we think of what society would look like in the year 2050.

Nowadays, the technological advances we’ve made in almost every industry show incredible progress. Virtual reality is shaping the world of gaming, as well as e-learning and employee onboarding. Artificial intelligence is helping us run our households. Solar energy is being featured in many progressive homes and structures.

What about if we fast-forward to 2050? We may see a completely different list of developing countries as we continue to witness technology changing the lives of the global population. Self-driving cars may be a common occurrence as we seek to find ways to promote safer roads. More environmentally-friendly products and services will be used in homes and offices as we become more aware of the effects of climate change. Finally, robots may change the face of manufacturing. Manual labor may no longer be needed, which will result in tremendous job losses.

These are just a few of many life-altering changes that we could see happening in the coming years.

How to Write an Essay About The Future

A good way to envision the future is to daydream. When we describe something that hasn’t happened yet, we largely utilize our imagination. As such, we need to take time to sit down and think about our image of the future.  Ask yourself all sorts of questions that will stimulate your imagination. Will we be able to finally contact other planets? How will genetic engineering cause demographic changes? Are we going to care more deeply about renewable resources? What will the state of the ozone layer be given our current trend? After asking yourself all these questions, the next step is to do some actual research. Look for credible sites and authors that focus on forecasting and predicting. See how they line up with your speculations. Choose the trends that most accurately align with each other.

Will Life Be Better In The Future?

It depends on what you mean by “better.” Are driverless cars really the best way to ensure road safety? Will young people truly benefit from the progress we make as a society? Will technology really bring people together? In other words, will these revolutionary changes really be for a more connected and happy society or simply a matter of convenience? It is hard to answer this question definitively. We don’t know if life will be better for every member of the global population in 2050, but we know that it will certainly be different for everyone.

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The world in 2050, how to think about the future.

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A Vision of the World in 2050

Our vision of the world in 2050 is optimistic as the world continues to evolve. However, the world is facing climate change, which can be dangerous. Humans are at risk of being wiped out due to climate change caused by their actions. To prevent this, the human race must work together to focus on natural and renewable energy sources. There is no use in creating a conflict between humans and the Earth, as the consequences of such a conflict could be dire for both. In this essay, I will explore a vision of the world in 2050, looking at how climate change issues may be mitigated and the potential impacts of mitigating climate change.

In the year 2050, the effects of climate change will be even more apparent than they are today. Global temperatures will have increased significantly, and extreme weather events, such as floods, droughts, and hurricanes, will be more frequent and intense. It will immensely impact the environment, society, and the economy, leading to increasing levels of poverty and inequality. Human activities such as deforestation and burning fossil fuels significantly contribute to climate change by increasing the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Deforestation is the removal of trees, a significant source of carbon storage on Earth. When these trees are cut down, the carbon stored within them is released into the atmosphere. At the same time, burning fossil fuels, such as coal, oil, and gas, releases large amounts of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. As a result, the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is growing, directly affecting the climate.

The increased carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere result in more heat being trapped and held in the atmosphere. It is known as the “greenhouse effect, ” causing global temperature to rise. The higher temperatures cause the ice caps to melt, which increases the level of the oceans and causes sea levels to rise. In addition, the increased temperatures cause more extreme weather patterns, such as more frequent and intense heat waves, droughts, and floods (Kaplan para 12). These changes significantly impact the environment and the lives of people and animals. The effects of climate change can be seen all over the world. In some coastal areas, sea levels rise so quickly that coastal communities are forced to move or risk flooding. In other areas, extreme weather events are leading to food shortages and displacement. The warming temperatures and higher levels of carbon dioxide cause changes in ecosystems, such as coral bleaching, which can have devastating consequences for marine life.

Protecting and preserving the environment is essential in mitigating climate change’s effects. The environment plays a critical role in helping to reduce the severity of climate change, providing humanity with a vital ally in the fight against the planet’s challenges. The Earth’s natural resources, such as forests, oceans, and soils, are essential for regulating the climate and providing a buffer to the extreme weather events that are becoming more frequent due to global warming. Forests, for example, absorb and store carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, helping to reduce the heat-trapping gases in our atmosphere. Healthy oceans also act as carbon sinks, absorbing and storing large amounts of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. Healthy soils help to drink water, preventing flooding and helping to reduce the impacts of drought. These natural resources also provide essential habitats for many species of animals, plants, and microorganisms, which are necessary for maintaining biodiversity and providing humans with ecosystem services such as food and clean air. Protecting and preserving these natural resources is essential for mitigating climate change’s effects. This includes reducing carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas emissions, reducing deforestation, and protecting ocean habitats. It also includes reducing pollution and improving land management practices to prevent soil erosion, conserve water, and reduce nutrient runoff.

To mitigate the effects of climate change, governments, and international organizations will have to implement various initiatives and policies. These include setting targets for reducing carbon emissions, investing in renewable energy sources, such as solar and wind power, and supporting the development of ‘green’ technologies, such as electric vehicles. Governments may also introduce carbon-pricing schemes, such as a carbon tax, to encourage businesses and individuals to reduce their carbon footprint. Climate adaptation is another way governments and international organizations can mitigate the effects of climate change. It involves preparing communities and ecosystems for climate-related changes such as extreme weather events, sea-level rise, and changes in water availability. Governments and international organizations can help communities adapt to these changes by improving their infrastructure, providing access to clean water and energy, and helping them access resources to protect themselves from extreme weather events. Furthermore, they can also put in place policies and regulations to reduce the risks posed by climate change.

Investing in renewable energy sources and green technologies could have a substantial positive impact on the environment. By 2050, most electricity could be generated from renewable sources like solar, wind, and hydropower. This would reduce emissions of harmful pollutants and help to protect ecosystems. Renewable energy sources, such as electric cars and trains, could also be used to power transportation, which would significantly reduce air pollution.

The article by Sarah explains how investing in renewable energy sources and green technologies can have a substantial positive impact on the environment. She explains that the Earth has a unique ability to protect itself against climate change and its potential effects. By investing in renewable energy sources and green technologies, humanity can use the Earth’s natural resources to help fight climate change and its impact. Kaplan explains that investing in renewable energy sources and green technologies could reduce emissions and increase the use of clean energy (Kaplan para 20). It would reduce the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and help reduce the effects of climate change. Renewable energy sources, such as solar and wind, can replace fossil fuels, the primary source of air pollution and greenhouse gases.

Investing in green technologies would also help reduce climate change’s effects by using the Earth’s natural resources more efficiently and sustainably. Investing in renewable energy sources and green technologies can also help create jobs and stimulate economic growth. Renewable energy sources and green technologies can create new industries, providing employment opportunities for people. This can help stimulate the economy and create a more robust and sustainable future for generations. Additionally, renewable energy sources and green technologies can help reduce energy costs and provide a stable energy source for people worldwide. It can help to reduce poverty in many countries and improve the quality of life for many people. Lastly, investing in renewable energy sources and green technologies can help to protect the environment. By reducing emissions and using the Earth’s natural resources more efficiently and sustainably, people can help reduce the effects of climate change. This can help protect the environment and prevent the destruction of ecosystems and habitats.

Additionally, investing in renewable energy sources and green technologies can help to reduce the amount of pollution and waste that is produced. It can help to reduce the amount of air, water, and soil pollution and help to protect the environment. Similarly, investing in renewable energy sources and green technologies can positively impact the environment. By reducing emissions, creating jobs, and saving the environment, investing in renewable energy sources and green technologies can help reduce climate change’s effects and create a more sustainable future. By investing in renewable energy sources and green technologies, humanity can use the Earth’s natural resources to fight climate change and its effects.

The article “Humanity’s Greatest Ally Against Climate Change is Earth Itself” by Sarah Kaplan explains how the Earth can be used to mitigate the effects of climate change. The world can solve the climate crisis through natural processes such as carbon sequestration, adaptation, and improving biodiversity. Governments and international organizations can use these biological processes to reduce the effects of climate change. Carbon sequestration is the process of capturing and storing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and is one of the ways the Earth can help mitigate climate change. Through this process, governments and international organizations can reduce the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and increase carbon storage in forests, oceans, and soil. It can be done in various ways, such as planting trees, improving soil fertility, protecting wetlands and seagrass, and improving agricultural practices. Planting trees is a particularly effective way of capturing carbon dioxide because they absorb the gas during photosynthesis and store it in wood and leaves.

Individuals can also play an essential role in helping to make this vision of the world in 2050 a reality. It could include reducing energy consumption by using energy-efficient appliances, switching to renewable energy sources, and eating less meat. Individuals could also be encouraged to actively participate in climate action initiatives, such as tree-planting projects, or to support organizations working to tackle climate change. Individuals can also help raise awareness of climate change by spreading the word to their friends, family, and community members. By educating others about the dangers of climate change and the importance of taking action, individuals can create a sense of urgency and encourage others to take action.

The article by Sarah Kaplan explains how individuals can help make the world a better place in 2050 by making small changes in their everyday lives. The article explains that the Earth’s natural processes can help mitigate climate change’s effects, but individuals must take action too. Individuals can take steps to reduce their carbon footprint and help fight climate change in 2050. One of the most important things individuals can do is switch to renewable energy sources, such as solar and wind power. Individuals can help reduce the carbon dioxide emissions from burning fossil fuels by making the switch. Individuals can also reduce their energy consumption by investing in energy-efficient appliances, such as LED lights, and unplugging appliances when not in use. This can significantly reduce an individual’s carbon footprint.

Furthermore, individuals can also help fight climate change by reducing the amount of waste they produce. It is not just limited to plastic waste but also food waste. Individuals can help reduce the methane emissions produced by landfills by reducing the amount of food thrown away. Individuals can also reduce waste using reusable items like water bottles and shopping bags. In addition to reducing their carbon footprint, individuals can help fight climate change by advocating for policy changes. Individuals can contact their local, state, and federal representatives to let them know why they should be taking action on climate change. Individuals can help pressure legislators to make the necessary changes to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and tackle climate change by raising awareness of the issue. Finally, individuals can also help fight climate change by investing in green technology. By investing in green technologies, individuals can help to bring about the necessary changes to reduce carbon emissions and fight climate change. Technologies such as renewable energy, electric vehicles, and energy efficiency can all play a part in reducing an individual’s carbon footprint and helping to fight climate change.

In other words, individuals can play an essential role in helping to make the world a better place in 2050 by making small changes in their everyday lives. By switching to renewable energy sources, reducing energy consumption and waste, advocating for policy changes, and investing in green technology, individuals can help reduce their carbon footprint and fight climate change. Individuals can also help raise awareness of the issue and pressure legislators to make the necessary changes to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and tackle climate change.

International collaboration and cooperation have a significant role in tackling climate change. Climate change is a global problem; no single country can tackle it alone. This means all countries must work together to address this urgent issue. International collaboration and cooperation can help to reduce emissions, build resilience to climate impacts, and share knowledge and best practices. Countries can work together to develop new policies and technologies that address climate change. For example, governments can cooperate to set and implement ambitious emission reduction targets or generate renewable energy sources. Countries can also collaborate to protect and restore forests and other ecosystems, which can help to store carbon and protect against climate impacts. International collaboration and cooperation can also ensure that all countries can access the resources and technologies needed to address climate change. This includes sharing best practices and providing technical support to countries that need help addressing climate change. It can also provide financial assistance to help countries implement climate action, such as through the Green Climate Fund.

International collaboration and cooperation can also ensure that countries are held accountable for their actions. It can include developing and enforcing international standards and regulations, such as carbon pricing schemes or emissions targets. It can also involve sharing data so that countries can track their progress and be held accountable for their commitments. International collaboration and cooperation can also ensure that climate change’s impacts are shared equitably. This can include developing and implementing adaptation strategies that protect the most vulnerable countries or providing support to those countries that are most affected by climate change. Ultimately, international collaboration and cooperation are essential for tackling climate change. No single government can address this challenge alone, and all countries must work together to develop and implement solutions. International collaboration and cooperation can help to reduce emissions, build resilience, and share resources and knowledge. It can also ensure that countries are held accountable for their actions and that the impacts of climate change are shared equitably.

Science plays a significant role in understanding and developing solutions to climate change. Climate change is a significant problem affecting our planet, and we must use the latest scientific knowledge and technology to tackle this problem. The first step in combating climate change is understanding its causes and effects. Scientists have studied the Earth’s climate for centuries and have developed increasingly sophisticated methods for measuring and analyzing the environment. Using these methods, we can better understand how climate change occurs and how it affects our planet. Once we know the causes and effects of climate change, we can develop solutions. These solutions aim to reduce the number of greenhouse gases released into the atmosphere, so the Earth’s climate can stabilize. Scientists have identified a range of strategies that can be implemented to reduce the number of greenhouse gases released into the atmosphere, including renewable energy sources, energy efficiency measures, and land use changes. In addition to identifying solutions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, scientists are also researching ways to adapt to the impacts of climate change. It includes researching ways to reduce the risk of extreme weather events and sea level rise and developing methods for protecting vulnerable ecosystems. Finally, science can help monitor and evaluate climate change solutions’ progress. Scientists can use data and models to track the progress of various climate change solutions and identify areas where changes need to be made. This data can then be used to inform policymakers so that they can make informed decisions about how best to tackle the problem.

In conclusion, the world in 2050 can be very different in climate if we take the proper steps today. We must commit to reducing carbon emissions, investing in renewable energy sources, and protecting our environment. Climate change is a global challenge that we must all work together to solve. With the right approach and commitment, I am confident we can create a more sustainable and prosperous future for future generations.

Kaplan Sarah. Humanity’s greatest ally against climate change is Earth itself, 2021.

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Introduction to the World 50.0 Movement

• Open Access
• First Online: 29 September 2023

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• Tamás Landesz 4 , 5 , 6 ,
• Sangeeth Varghese 4 , 7 &
• Karine Sargsyan 8 , 9 , 10  

Part of the book series: Future of Business and Finance ((FBF))

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This book delves into the future of the world in 2050, covering various sectors such as healthcare, energy, transportation, communication, entertainment, and climate change from the perspectives of global leaders and visionaries from diverse backgrounds. It draws on open crowdsourced research and incorporates insights from the Covid-19 pandemic, appealing to not only businesses and governments but also the general public. The book includes 19 chapters, with 17 addressing the future of specific sectors and the last discussing the World 50.0 movement and how to participate. The topics of Artificial Intelligence, machine learning, and singularity are integrated throughout the book, considering the potential benefits and risks of new technologies. The authors acknowledge that predicting the future is impossible for any single expert but propose that practical conclusions can be drawn by correlating opinions from various experts (noting that contributions from interviewees reflect their own views). The book seeks to engage and inspire a diverse audience and is designed to be accessible across generations.

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Covid-19, Social Change, and Society 5.0

Introduction

Are We Ready for NDE 5.0

• Glimpse of the future
• Crowdsourcing the future
• World 50.0 movement
• Age of empathy
• Future quotient

“I’ve learned that everyone wants to live on top of the mountain, but all the happiness and growth occurs while you're climbing it.”—Andy Rooney

1 Towards a Better Future: World 50.0

In 2020, the Medical University of Graz organized a virtual Countdown TEDx event titled: “Think once! Think twice! Think future!” The Countdown is a global initiative to champion and accelerate solutions to the climate crisis, turning ideas into action. Karine Sargsyan gave a talk on the environmental (and not only) effects of a war. Tamás Landesz was invited to deliver a talk about the World 50.0 movement, which he launched a few years ago with fellow World Economic Forum Young Global Leader Sangeeth Varghese.

His virtual talk started something like this:

“I grew up in the beautiful city of Buenos Aires, Argentina in the seventies, where the skies are always blue. As a kid I was fascinated by two things: surfing and computers. I often set on the beach, staring at the ocean, fantasizing about the future, imagining how the world would look like 50 or 100 years later. Today, about 50 years later, we find ourselves at a crucible moment in human history in which leadership will define whether we can meet critical economic, social, political or environmental challenges… But we seem to be short of true global leaders.”

We often talk about how to create a more inclusive and sustainable future, which contributes towards the 2030 agenda and the Fourth Industrial Revolution. With members of World Economic Forum’s Young Global Leaders community, Landesz and Varguese conducted an open crowdsourced research project, titled World 50.0. In this open-access book which builds on their initial research, they partnered with Karine Sargsyan to further expand it and enrich the concept with a fresh perspective. As a consequence, the three authors decided to include new insights also about “how the Covid-19 pandemic changed the way we think about our future.”

“While we know that no person can predict the future, individuals can see snippets. Our aim was to collect many of these snippets and piece them together to answer the question: How will the world look like in 2050? Using a variety of social media tools, we invited selected global leaders from business, government, media, non-profits, intergovernmental organizations, artists and academia, as well as university students of all ages, to share their glimpse of the future.” (Sargsyan et al., 2022 )

Initially, in the “Pre-Corona World,” the majority of our respondents were cautiously optimistic, while now, since the Covid-19 pandemic, we are seeing a slightly different picture of the world emerging and within that the future of humanity. We have closely examined and recorded these perspectives. Personal experiences and compassionate stories have been added to better portrait the changes triggered by the global pandemic, making the book appealing not only to businesses and governments, but also to the public.

Through this open-access book, we hope to reach a wider audience, crowdsource ideas, and mobilize people to build a better world together.

This book is organized into 19 chapters of which 17 chapters address the future of a particular sector, such as leadership; governments, politics and democracy; geopolitics; healthcare; energy; climate change; transportation; communication and interactions; sex and gender; consumption; food; families; homes; work and business; learning and education; religion; and entertainment. The last chapter discusses the World 50.0 movement and how to get involved, aiming to encourage governments, businesses, and societal stakeholders to think differently about the future.

Artificial Intelligence, machine learning, and the subject of singularity will be interweaved into all relevant chapters. By 2050 singularity may be possible and it is imperative to reflect on this already today from multiple perspectives—from the use and development for humankind to ethical and legal considerations and misuse. We will cover the benefits of new technologies in general but will also show possible risks and offer some solutions to minimize these.

Recently, there has been a growing interest in books aiming to describe the future. These include Yuval Noah Harari’s books “21 Lessons for the Twenty-First Century” and “Homo Deus,” primarily based on extrapolating from human history. In their book, “The Future is Faster than You,” Diamandis et al. write about how modern technologies like 5G, Artificial Intelligence, and Virtual Reality will transform the future. In similar vein, Ray Kurzweil in his book “The Singularity is Near” outlines the future of technology and makes predictions about singularity post-2045.

This book is entirely different in its scope and approach. The basic underlying assumption of World 50.0 is that no matter how credible one expert is, nobody on their own is able to predict the future, since the future is way too staggered, complex, and disruptive. While individual experts would be able to see snippets of the future and be able to make marginal rather than exponential forecasting leaps within their field of expertise, when the opinions of several such experts are considered and correlated, we are able to draw practical conclusions. World 50.0 will deep dive into various domains such as healthcare, technology, transportation, governance, geopolitics, education, and employment, rather than looking at the future as a single monolith. The underlying assumption being: though the future of domains is ultimately interrelated, they also undertake their own different trajectories.

World 50.0 draws from domain expertise and uses statistical tools to interpret and extrapolate the future, simplifying complex messages using a variety of tools, including modelling, sketching, storytelling, and quotations. World 50.0 targets a broader audience, making it an interesting and inspiring read across generations.

The following chapters will describe inter alia how we are entering a “human age” or the “age of empathy” where Moore’s law can be applied to the human potential curve. Humans will lose their natural biological identities—and become “homo nano-technus,” meaning that “it’s just a matter of time before we can ‘download’ ourselves fully into the digital domain and in doing so, pull the plug on our biological identities.” The future will be about “the use of technology and science to connect us with nature, instead of thinking that we can control it.” The book includes quotes from expert interviews, relevant essays, artwork, and a self-administered Future Intelligence or Future Quotient (FQ) questionnaire.

How best to prepare and thrive in the future? Here is some privileged advice from World 50.0 (Landesz, 2016 , 2020 , 2022 ; Sargsyan, Landesz & Varghese, 2022 ; TEDxTalks, 2020 , 2022 ):

Follow your passion; hustle, hustle.

Exercise compassion and resilience and adapt.

Spread and scale stuff.

Do new things every day.

Practice mindfulness, presence, and being kind.

The aim of the World 50.0 movement is to build our future together and faster—a better future that we want our children and their children to inherit.

Landesz, T. (2016). Authentic leadership and machiavellianism in young global leaders . International School of Management.

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Landesz, T. (2020). Resetting the future: World 50.0 . International School of Management Annual Report 2020.

Landesz, T. (2022). Global health diplomacy: Future of health . Cambridge Public Health Seminar Module.

Sargsyan, K., Landesz, T., & Varghese, S. (2022). Digital Davos Speakers 2022 . https://www.digitaldavos2022.com/clients

TEDxTalks. (2020). Future of the World 50.0 . YouTube. September 18.

TEDxTalks. (2022). Our World in 2050 . YouTube. April 01.

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Landesz, T., Varghese, S., Sargsyan, K. (2023). Introduction to the World 50.0 Movement. In: Landesz, T., Varghese, S., Sargsyan, K. (eds) Future Intelligence. Future of Business and Finance. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-36382-5_1

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China’s projected share of world GDP at PPPs by 2050

India’s global GDP ranking at PPPs by 2050 (behind China but ahead of the US)

EU27’s share of global GDP at PPPs by 2050 (excluding UK)

Key findings

This report sets out our latest long-term global growth projections to 2050 for 32 of the largest economies in the world, accounting for around 85% of world GDP.

Key results of our analysis (as summarised also in the accompanying video) include:

• The world economy could more than double in size by 2050, far outstripping population growth, due to continued technology-driven productivity improvements
• Emerging markets (E7) could grow around twice as fast as advanced economies (G7) on average
• As a result, six of the seven largest economies in the world are projected to be emerging economies in 2050 led by China (1st), India (2nd) and Indonesia (4th)
• The US could be down to third place in the global GDP rankings while the EU27’s share of world GDP could fall below 10% by 2050
• UK could be down to 10th place by 2050, France out of the top 10 and Italy out of the top 20 as they are overtaken by faster growing emerging economies like Mexico, Turkey and Vietnam respectively
• But emerging economies need to enhance their institutions and their infrastructure significantly if they are to realise their long-term growth potential.

Explore the World in 2050

View the infographics below for highlights of our GDP projections and explore the results further using our  interactive data tool.

Further details are provided in our  summary report ,  full report  and slide pack .

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World in 2050

60 second update from PwC's Chief Economist John Hawksworth on the long term outlook for global growth.

   Key projections

Challenges for policymakers.

Our analysis also identifies a number of key challenges for policy-makers, including:

• Avoid a slide back into protectionism, which history suggests would be bad for global growth in the long run
• Ensuring that the potential benefits of globalisation are shared more equally across society
• Developing new green technologies to ensure that long-term global growth is environmentally sustainable

Please download our full report for more in-depth analysis of these policy issues.

Opportunities for business – winning in emerging markets

Our report, which can be downloaded in full below , also considers the opportunities for business:

• As emerging markets mature, they will become less attractive as low cost manufacturing bases but more attractive as consumer and business-to-business (B2B) markets
• But international companies need strategies that are flexible enough to adapt to local customer preferences and rapidly evolving local market dynamics
• Since emerging markets can be volatile, international investors also need to be patient enough to ride out the short-term economic and political cycles in these countries

Please also take a look at the research of our  Growth Markets Centre  for detailed examples of how companies can succeed in emerging markets.

Download The World in 2050: The Long View

How will the global economic order change by 2050?

Download the full report (PDF, 1.8mb)

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Megachange: The World in 2050 Hardcover – March 27, 2012

"Megatrends" are great forces in societal development that have profound impacts on states, markets, and civil society in the now and for the years to come. They can effectively be employed as a starting point for analyzing our world. Megachange: The World in 2050 looks at these sweeping, fundamental trends that are changing the world faster than at any time in human history.

Including chapters on approximately twenty of these "megatrends," each elegantly outlined by contributors from The Economist , and rich in supporting facts and graphics, the book is a compelling read as well as a valuable research and reference tool.

• Groups the "megatrends" that are shaping our world into several categories: People, Life and Death, Economy and Business, and Knowledge
• Each trend is covered in a concise but detailed chapter written by an expert from The Economist
• Edited by Daniel Franklin, Executive Editor of The Economist

Packed with important information about the forces that shape our world, Megachange is a fascinating new look to the future from the experts at The Economist .

• Print length 320 pages
• Language English
• Publisher Wiley
• Publication date March 27, 2012
• Dimensions 5.8 x 1.12 x 8.8 inches
• ISBN-10 1118180445
• ISBN-13 978-1118180440
• See all details

Editorial Reviews

From the inside flap.

Megachange looks at the forces that have been driving change and where they are headed over the following decades. Its conclusions about how the world will look in 2050 are often surprising, not least in their optimism. Following an introduction, the book is divided into four parts containing 20 chapters that cover everything from health to wealth and religion to outer space.

People and relationships

Not quite destiny

The health of nations

Women's world

Friends indeed

Cultural revolutions

Heaven and earth

Believe it or not

Feeling the heat

The future of war: the weak become strong

Freedom's ragged march

Taming Leviathan: the state of the state

Economy and business

The age of emerging markets

Globalisation, growth and the Asian century

The great levelling

Schumpeter Inc.

Market momentum

Knowledge and progress

What (and where) next for science

The web of knowledge

Distance is dead. Long live location

Of predictions and progress: more for less

The contributors

Barbara Beck is The Economist's special-reports editor.

Geoffrey Carr is The Economist's science and technology editor.

Philip Coggan is the Buttonwood columnist and capital-markets editor of The Economist. He is the author of The Economist Guide to Hedge Funds and, most recently, Paper Promises: Money, Debt and the New World Order.

Simon Cox is The Economist's Asia economics editor.

Tim Cross is a science correspondent at The Economist.

Kenneth Cukier is The Economist's data editor.

Martin Giles is The Economist's US technology correspondent.

Anthony Gottlieb is a New York-based writer. A former executive editor of The Economist, he is the author of The Dream of Reason: A History of Philosophy from the Greeks to the Renaissance.

Robert Lane Greene is The Economist's professional-services correspondent. He also edits "Johnson", The Economist's blog on language, and is the author of You Are What You Speak: Grammar Grouches, Language Laws, and the Politics of Identity.

Charlotte Howard is The Economist's health-care correspondent.

Laza Kekic is director of the Economist Intelligence Unit's Country Forecasting Service.

Edward Lucas edits The Economist's international section. His most recent book is Deception, on East-West espionage.

Zanny Minton Beddoes is The Economist's economics editor.

Oliver Morton is The Economist's briefings editor and was previously energy and environment editor. His most recent book is Eating the Sun: How Plants Power the Planet.

John Parker is The Economist's globalisation editor.

Matt Ridley is a former science and technology editor, Washington bureau chief and United States editor of The Economist. He is the author of several books, including, most recently, The Rational Optimist: How Prosperity Evolves.

Ludwig Siegele is The Economist's online business editor. He was previously technology editor.

Matthew Symonds is The Economist's defence and security editor.

Paul Wallace is The Economist's European economics editor. He is the author of Agequake: Riding the Demographic Rollercoaster Shaking Business, Finance and Our World.

Adrian Wooldridge is The Economist's management editor and Schumpeter columnist. He is co-author of several books and, most recently, the author of Masters of Management: How the Business Gurus and Their Ideas Have Changed the World – for Better and for Worse.

From the Back Cover

Navigating the future can be tricky . . .

The scale of change happening around us can be bewildering, and scary. This book offers clarity, and hope. There is every chance that the world in 2050 will be richer, healthier, more connected, more sustainable, more innovative, better educated, and have less inequality between rich and poor and between men and women.

Enormous challenges lie ahead, from managing climate change to feeding 9 billion people by 2050 and coping with a multitude of new security threats. In its 20 chapters that look at everything from health to wealth and religion to outer space, Megachange confronts these issues in its exploration of the fundamental trends that are shaping the world.

Brimming with (often counter-intuitive) ideas and facts, Megachange provides fascinating insights into what the coming decades will bring.

Let The Economist improve your vision

About the Author

Daniel Franklin is executive editor and business-affairs editor of The Economist. He is also the editor of The Economist's annual publication on the year ahead, The World in....

John Andrews has written for The Economist for more than 30 years and is deputy editor of The World in?. He is the author of The Economist Book of Isms.

Product details

• Publisher ‏ : ‎ Wiley; 1st edition (March 27, 2012)
• Language ‏ : ‎ English
• Hardcover ‏ : ‎ 320 pages
• ISBN-10 ‏ : ‎ 1118180445
• ISBN-13 ‏ : ‎ 978-1118180440
• Item Weight ‏ : ‎ 1.06 pounds
• Dimensions ‏ : ‎ 5.8 x 1.12 x 8.8 inches
• #62,740 in Economics (Books)

About the author

John andrews.

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Essay on India in 2050

Students are often asked to write an essay on India in 2050 in their schools and colleges. And if you’re also looking for the same, we have created 100-word, 250-word, and 500-word essays on the topic.

Let’s take a look…

100 Words Essay on India in 2050

Introduction.

India in 2050 will be a global powerhouse, with advancements in technology, economy, and society. The country will have a strong presence on the world stage.

India will be a leader in technology, with innovations in AI, robotics, and space exploration. Smart cities will enhance the quality of life.

The Indian economy will be one of the world’s largest. Its diverse sectors like IT, agriculture, and manufacturing will thrive.

India’s society will be more inclusive and progressive. Education and healthcare will be accessible to all.

India in 2050 will be a vibrant, progressive, and influential nation, making significant strides on various fronts.

250 Words Essay on India in 2050

India, with its rich heritage and diverse culture, has always been a subject of interest. As we look forward to the year 2050, it’s intriguing to envision the potential advancements and challenges India might face.

Economic Progress

By 2050, India is projected to be the world’s second-largest economy. The growth will be driven by technological advancements, increased foreign investments, and a strong entrepreneurial ecosystem. However, this economic boom must be inclusive, addressing the rural-urban divide and income disparity.

Technological Innovation

India in 2050 will likely be a global hub for cutting-edge technology. Artificial Intelligence, Machine Learning, and other emerging technologies will redefine sectors like healthcare, education, and agriculture. However, the digital divide and cyber security are issues that need attention.

Sustainability and Climate Change

India’s commitment to the Paris Agreement signals a shift towards sustainable development. By 2050, India could be a world leader in renewable energy. Yet, the threat of climate change looms large, demanding innovative solutions and stringent policies.

Social Dynamics

The social fabric of India in 2050 will be shaped by increased urbanization, demographic changes, and evolving societal norms. While fostering diversity and inclusivity, India must also confront issues like gender inequality and social injustice.

By 2050, India will likely be a powerful and progressive nation, but the journey will not be without challenges. It will require strategic planning, inclusive policies, and a collective effort to ensure a prosperous and sustainable future.

500 Words Essay on India in 2050

The vision of india in 2050.

India, a country rich in history and culture, is on a trajectory towards becoming a global powerhouse by 2050. The nation’s potential lies in its demographic dividend, technological prowess, and economic capabilities. This essay envisions India’s future in different sectors by 2050.

Economic Ascendancy

India, currently the world’s fifth-largest economy, is projected to become the third-largest by 2050. With a GDP growth rate outpacing that of most developed nations, India’s economic ascendancy seems inevitable. The country’s growth trajectory is expected to be fueled by technological advancements, a surge in entrepreneurship, and a booming digital economy.

India’s technological landscape is anticipated to undergo a significant transformation by 2050. The country’s tech startups, currently numbering in the thousands, could potentially evolve into global giants, driving innovation in fields such as artificial intelligence, robotics, and quantum computing. Furthermore, India’s ongoing digital revolution is expected to reach new heights, connecting the remotest corners of the country and democratizing access to information.

Demographic Dividend

As a young nation, India’s demographic dividend will be one of its significant advantages by 2050. With a median age of 29 years, India is poised to become the world’s largest workforce. Harnessing this youthful energy, India could transform into a knowledge-based economy, leading in sectors like information technology, biotechnology, and pharmaceuticals.

Environmental Sustainability

By 2050, India’s commitment to sustainability could see it become a leader in renewable energy. The country’s ambitious plans for solar and wind energy could drastically reduce its carbon footprint, while initiatives like the ‘Clean Ganga’ could restore its rivers to their former glory.

Challenges Ahead

Despite the optimistic outlook, India will face significant challenges on its path to 2050. The country will need to address issues such as income inequality, inadequate healthcare, and education systems, and the threat of climate change. Moreover, it will need to ensure that its economic growth is inclusive and benefits all sections of society.

In conclusion, India in 2050 promises to be a dynamic and vibrant nation, leading the world in various sectors. However, realizing this vision will require a concerted effort from all stakeholders, including the government, private sector, and civil society. The journey to 2050 will undoubtedly be challenging, but with the right policies and relentless determination, India can look forward to a future of prosperity and global leadership.

That’s it! I hope the essay helped you.

If you’re looking for more, here are essays on other interesting topics:

• Essay on India in 2047
• Essay on India in 2030
• Essay on Future of India

Apart from these, you can look at all the essays by clicking here .

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University of Notre Dame

Europe in the World

The Arc of Human Life as an Introduction to Hans Urs von Balthasar’s Theological Contributions

Published: April 24, 2024

Author: Megan Heeder

Hans Urs von Balthasar (1905-1988) was a Swiss theologian who was a prolific author, writing over 500 essays and articles and publishing 85 books. While impressive not only in quantity, but also in depth, his theological contributions were shaped by more than erudite reflections. His work as a student chaplain in Basel, Switzerland and friendship with Adrienne von Speyr heavily shaped his theology.

Balthasar’s Life Out of Death serves as a study-in-miniature of the major themes of his sixteen-volume Trilogy, a three-part systematic theological exploration of Christ as beauty, goodness, and truth. Life Out of Death is as accessible in its manner of writing and size as the corpus of Balthasar’s work is dense and extensive. In it, Balthasar takes the course of a human life as his inspiration for meditations on how the Paschal Mystery (the suffering, death, and resurrection of Christ) changes the nature of not only human death, but existence itself. Tracing how Christ’s Paschal Mystery fits within and transforms the arc of human life both serves as an introduction to Balthasar’s treatment of Christian themes and offers insights on how he draws rich theological conclusions from something as ordinary as the human life cycle.

Birth: Theological Anthropology

Life begins when a child is born, and realizes the miracle of her existence and acceptance into the world through her mother’s smile. As the child grows, she realizes within her development distinct truths about herself, the world, and others. Eventually, she asks herself what she wants to achieve in life. At this point, Balthasar observes the meeting of the eternal and transitory in the desire to create something permanent that transcends time, something which is a reflection of one’s personal uniqueness. He notes that part of being human is resisting the transitory state of the world through love or achievement, or both. Illustrating the everyday, yet remarkable nature of Balthasar’s theology, this point is not only a theological one. It is something which nearly every young person can relate to as they become aware of themselves as a person in the world, longing to make a difference in the lives of others and to push back against the injustices with their own achievement, love story, or unique existence. Balthasar once observed what is true today: that to exist is to grapple with the question of what matters most in one’s life, how to spend one’s time, and what one wishes to leave behind in pursuit of what matters.

What Will I Offer the World? The Unity of Divine Mission and Christian Serenity

As one seeks to answer these questions, they ask themselves what is worthy of their assent–that is, what do they want to say “yes” to, as they implicitly say “no” to the thousands of other lives they could live? This “yes,” Balthasar says, requires letting go of one’s self. It is in this letting-go that one finds oneself. This is true for Balthasar not only because of philosophical conclusions, but because of the mission of Jesus. One of Balthasar’s theological claims throughout his work is that Jesus’s mission is not external to Him, something He assents to and subsequently takes up. Rather, Jesus and His mission are one. His work of reconciling the world to God is who He is. He brings the eternal “into the field of the world” so that “the Kingdom of God [might] spring up in this field” (35). The eternal breaks into the temporal in the life of Christ. Christ’s life not only enacts reconciliation between God and humanity, but is God’s reconciliation with the world.

Like any person who wonders what their life will contribute to the world, Jesus is challenged by the work of doing something definitive within the transitory nature of human existence. Balthasar points to Christ’s death as the act which makes this paradox possible; because Christ died, our deaths have already taken place within him. What he has done is transferred eucharistically into us. Because of Jesus’s sacrifice, Christian serenity is possible. Our impending death need not worry us. Balthasar assures us that we are safe in the hands of the Father, who “will catch us in his fatherly hands, even if together with Jesus we feel ourselves abandoned, even if we seem to sink into a bottomless abyss.” (41)

One might ask what will come of the work we do in the world. Balthasar observes that insofar as we surrendered ourselves to the tasks we did, doing them not for our own glory or gain, the work that we have done on earth will be preserved. Such work mirrors the obedient surrender of Christ. It is only in this giving-away of self that transient tasks can be brought to fruition, the power to love is unleashed, and the human person imitates both the mission and person of Christ so that their death can be perfected.

Love is as Strong as Death

The question of the legacy one will leave behind often intensifies as one realizes they will not live forever. Balthasar focuses intensely on the fact that Good Friday is not immediately followed by Easter Sunday’s Resurrection–rather, Holy Saturday lies in between them, a period of what Balthasar terms “letting oneself be taken.” Balthasar’s emphasis on Christ’s descent into Hell and what He endures there is one of his theology’s more controversial points.

The Resurrection does not heal Christ’s wounds. Balthasar notes that Christ’s opened heart–what he terms “the most deadly” of all of His wounds–remains open in the final life of the Resurrection. The peace He offers is that which death’s transfigured peace has entered, a peace accessible because He incorporated universal death into His own personal aliveness. In losing Himself in death, Christ brought about and made possible our, as well as His own and the Church’s, utmost aliveness.

Good Friday, Holy Saturday, Easter, and the Ascension are all inextricably connected in Balthasar’s view–in Christ, in the Church’s liturgical life, and in the life of individuals. The interconnection of death and life within the cycle of human life is much the same–a single day can be marked by literal or metaphorical deaths, births, and moments of surrender that can become glorified when united with those of Jesus.

In the end, Balthasar says, life and death are united in mission. But, he warns, their intertwined transformation takes place on the condition that one not forget how dark a life of self-abandonment can be if resistances to love are to be overcome, and themselves transfigured. But hope of this transfiguration persists as the communion of saints sings that “love is strong as death” (Song 8:6f).

Suggested further reading:

Balthasar, Hans Urs von. Engagement with God. Translated by R. John Halliburton. San Francisco: Ignatius Press, 2008.

Balthasar, Hans Urs von. Life Out of Death: Meditations on the Paschal Mystery. Translated by Martina Stockl. San Francisco: Ignatius Press, 2012.

Balthasar, Hans Urs von. Love Alone is Credible. Translated by D.C. Schindler. San Francisco: Ignatius Press, 2004.

Balthasar, Hans Urs von. Mysterium Paschale. Translated by Aidan Nichols. Grand Rapids, MI: W.B. Eerdman’s Publishing Company, 1993.

Nichols, Aidan. A Key to Balthasar: Hans Urs von Balthasar on Beauty, Goodness, and Truth. Grand Rapids, MI: Baker Academic, 2011.

About the author

Megan Heeder holds a Ph.D. in Religious Studies from Marquette University. Her area of specialty is in Systematics and Ethics, particularly engaging resources from the Catholic intellectual tradition to develop a moral theological approach to eating disorders in a digital age, including Balthasar’s theological aesthetics.