what does fail to reject null hypothesis mean

What 'Fail to Reject' Means in a Hypothesis Test

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In statistics , scientists can perform a number of different significance tests to determine if there is a relationship between two phenomena. One of the first they usually perform is a null hypothesis test. In short, the null hypothesis states that there is no meaningful relationship between two measured phenomena. After a performing a test, scientists can:

• Reject the null hypothesis (meaning there is a definite, consequential relationship between the two phenomena), or
• Fail to reject the null hypothesis (meaning the test has not identified a consequential relationship between the two phenomena)

Key Takeaways: The Null Hypothesis

• In a test of significance, the null hypothesis states that there is no meaningful relationship between two measured phenomena.

• By comparing the null hypothesis to an alternative hypothesis, scientists can either reject or fail to reject the null hypothesis.

• The null hypothesis cannot be positively proven. Rather, all that scientists can determine from a test of significance is that the evidence collected does or does not disprove the null hypothesis.

It is important to note that a failure to reject does not mean that the null hypothesis is true—only that the test did not prove it to be false. In some cases, depending on the experiment, a relationship may exist between two phenomena that is not identified by the experiment. In such cases, new experiments must be designed to rule out alternative hypotheses.

Null vs. Alternative Hypothesis

The null hypothesis is considered the default in a scientific experiment . In contrast, an alternative hypothesis is one that claims that there is a meaningful relationship between two phenomena. These two competing hypotheses can be compared by performing a statistical hypothesis test, which determines whether there is a statistically significant relationship between the data.

For example, scientists studying the water quality of a stream may wish to determine whether a certain chemical affects the acidity of the water. The null hypothesis—that the chemical has no effect on the water quality—can be tested by measuring the pH level of two water samples, one of which contains some of the chemical and one of which has been left untouched. If the sample with the added chemical is measurably more or less acidic—as determined through statistical analysis—it is a reason to reject the null hypothesis. If the sample's acidity is unchanged, it is a reason to not reject the null hypothesis.

When scientists design experiments, they attempt to find evidence for the alternative hypothesis. They do not try to prove that the null hypothesis is true. The null hypothesis is assumed to be an accurate statement until contrary evidence proves otherwise. As a result, a test of significance does not produce any evidence pertaining to the truth of the null hypothesis.

Failing to Reject vs. Accept

In an experiment, the null hypothesis and the alternative hypothesis should be carefully formulated such that one and only one of these statements is true. If the collected data supports the alternative hypothesis, then the null hypothesis can be rejected as false. However, if the data does not support the alternative hypothesis, this does not mean that the null hypothesis is true. All it means is that the null hypothesis has not been disproven—hence the term "failure to reject." A "failure to reject" a hypothesis should not be confused with acceptance.

In mathematics, negations are typically formed by simply placing the word “not” in the correct place. Using this convention, tests of significance allow scientists to either reject or not reject the null hypothesis. It sometimes takes a moment to realize that “not rejecting” is not the same as "accepting."

Null Hypothesis Example

In many ways, the philosophy behind a test of significance is similar to that of a trial. At the beginning of the proceedings, when the defendant enters a plea of “not guilty,” it is analogous to the statement of the null hypothesis. While the defendant may indeed be innocent, there is no plea of “innocent” to be formally made in court. The alternative hypothesis of “guilty” is what the prosecutor attempts to demonstrate.

The presumption at the outset of the trial is that the defendant is innocent. In theory, there is no need for the defendant to prove that he or she is innocent. The burden of proof is on the prosecuting attorney, who must marshal enough evidence to convince the jury that the defendant is guilty beyond a reasonable doubt. Likewise, in a test of significance, a scientist can only reject the null hypothesis by providing evidence for the alternative hypothesis.

If there is not enough evidence in a trial to demonstrate guilt, then the defendant is declared “not guilty.” This claim has nothing to do with innocence; it merely reflects the fact that the prosecution failed to provide enough evidence of guilt. In a similar way, a failure to reject the null hypothesis in a significance test does not mean that the null hypothesis is true. It only means that the scientist was unable to provide enough evidence for the alternative hypothesis.

For example, scientists testing the effects of a certain pesticide on crop yields might design an experiment in which some crops are left untreated and others are treated with varying amounts of pesticide. Any result in which the crop yields varied based on pesticide exposure—assuming all other variables are equal—would provide strong evidence for the alternative hypothesis (that the pesticide does affect crop yields). As a result, the scientists would have reason to reject the null hypothesis.

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What is The Null Hypothesis & When Do You Reject The Null Hypothesis

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A null hypothesis is a statistical concept suggesting no significant difference or relationship between measured variables. It’s the default assumption unless empirical evidence proves otherwise.

The null hypothesis states no relationship exists between the two variables being studied (i.e., one variable does not affect the other).

The null hypothesis is the statement that a researcher or an investigator wants to disprove.

Testing the null hypothesis can tell you whether your results are due to the effects of manipulating ​ the dependent variable or due to random chance. 

How to Write a Null Hypothesis

Null hypotheses (H0) start as research questions that the investigator rephrases as statements indicating no effect or relationship between the independent and dependent variables.

It is a default position that your research aims to challenge or confirm.

For example, if studying the impact of exercise on weight loss, your null hypothesis might be:

There is no significant difference in weight loss between individuals who exercise daily and those who do not.

Examples of Null Hypotheses

When do we reject the null hypothesis .

We reject the null hypothesis when the data provide strong enough evidence to conclude that it is likely incorrect. This often occurs when the p-value (probability of observing the data given the null hypothesis is true) is below a predetermined significance level.

If the collected data does not meet the expectation of the null hypothesis, a researcher can conclude that the data lacks sufficient evidence to back up the null hypothesis, and thus the null hypothesis is rejected. 

Rejecting the null hypothesis means that a relationship does exist between a set of variables and the effect is statistically significant ( p > 0.05).

If the data collected from the random sample is not statistically significance , then the null hypothesis will be accepted, and the researchers can conclude that there is no relationship between the variables. 

You need to perform a statistical test on your data in order to evaluate how consistent it is with the null hypothesis. A p-value is one statistical measurement used to validate a hypothesis against observed data.

Calculating the p-value is a critical part of null-hypothesis significance testing because it quantifies how strongly the sample data contradicts the null hypothesis.

The level of statistical significance is often expressed as a  p  -value between 0 and 1. The smaller the p-value, the stronger the evidence that you should reject the null hypothesis.

Usually, a researcher uses a confidence level of 95% or 99% (p-value of 0.05 or 0.01) as general guidelines to decide if you should reject or keep the null.

When your p-value is less than or equal to your significance level, you reject the null hypothesis.

In other words, smaller p-values are taken as stronger evidence against the null hypothesis. Conversely, when the p-value is greater than your significance level, you fail to reject the null hypothesis.

In this case, the sample data provides insufficient data to conclude that the effect exists in the population.

Because you can never know with complete certainty whether there is an effect in the population, your inferences about a population will sometimes be incorrect.

When you incorrectly reject the null hypothesis, it’s called a type I error. When you incorrectly fail to reject it, it’s called a type II error.

Why Do We Never Accept The Null Hypothesis?

The reason we do not say “accept the null” is because we are always assuming the null hypothesis is true and then conducting a study to see if there is evidence against it. And, even if we don’t find evidence against it, a null hypothesis is not accepted.

A lack of evidence only means that you haven’t proven that something exists. It does not prove that something doesn’t exist. 

It is risky to conclude that the null hypothesis is true merely because we did not find evidence to reject it. It is always possible that researchers elsewhere have disproved the null hypothesis, so we cannot accept it as true, but instead, we state that we failed to reject the null. 

One can either reject the null hypothesis, or fail to reject it, but can never accept it.

Why Do We Use The Null Hypothesis?

We can never prove with 100% certainty that a hypothesis is true; We can only collect evidence that supports a theory. However, testing a hypothesis can set the stage for rejecting or accepting this hypothesis within a certain confidence level.

The null hypothesis is useful because it can tell us whether the results of our study are due to random chance or the manipulation of a variable (with a certain level of confidence).

A null hypothesis is rejected if the measured data is significantly unlikely to have occurred and a null hypothesis is accepted if the observed outcome is consistent with the position held by the null hypothesis.

Rejecting the null hypothesis sets the stage for further experimentation to see if a relationship between two variables exists. 

Hypothesis testing is a critical part of the scientific method as it helps decide whether the results of a research study support a particular theory about a given population. Hypothesis testing is a systematic way of backing up researchers’ predictions with statistical analysis.

It helps provide sufficient statistical evidence that either favors or rejects a certain hypothesis about the population parameter. 

Purpose of a Null Hypothesis 

• The primary purpose of the null hypothesis is to disprove an assumption. 
• Whether rejected or accepted, the null hypothesis can help further progress a theory in many scientific cases.
• A null hypothesis can be used to ascertain how consistent the outcomes of multiple studies are.

Do you always need both a Null Hypothesis and an Alternative Hypothesis?

The null (H0) and alternative (Ha or H1) hypotheses are two competing claims that describe the effect of the independent variable on the dependent variable. They are mutually exclusive, which means that only one of the two hypotheses can be true. 

While the null hypothesis states that there is no effect in the population, an alternative hypothesis states that there is statistical significance between two variables. 

The goal of hypothesis testing is to make inferences about a population based on a sample. In order to undertake hypothesis testing, you must express your research hypothesis as a null and alternative hypothesis. Both hypotheses are required to cover every possible outcome of the study. 

What is the difference between a null hypothesis and an alternative hypothesis?

The alternative hypothesis is the complement to the null hypothesis. The null hypothesis states that there is no effect or no relationship between variables, while the alternative hypothesis claims that there is an effect or relationship in the population.

It is the claim that you expect or hope will be true. The null hypothesis and the alternative hypothesis are always mutually exclusive, meaning that only one can be true at a time.

What are some problems with the null hypothesis?

One major problem with the null hypothesis is that researchers typically will assume that accepting the null is a failure of the experiment. However, accepting or rejecting any hypothesis is a positive result. Even if the null is not refuted, the researchers will still learn something new.

Why can a null hypothesis not be accepted?

We can either reject or fail to reject a null hypothesis, but never accept it. If your test fails to detect an effect, this is not proof that the effect doesn’t exist. It just means that your sample did not have enough evidence to conclude that it exists.

We can’t accept a null hypothesis because a lack of evidence does not prove something that does not exist. Instead, we fail to reject it.

Failing to reject the null indicates that the sample did not provide sufficient enough evidence to conclude that an effect exists.

If the p-value is greater than the significance level, then you fail to reject the null hypothesis.

Is a null hypothesis directional or non-directional?

A hypothesis test can either contain an alternative directional hypothesis or a non-directional alternative hypothesis. A directional hypothesis is one that contains the less than (“<“) or greater than (“>”) sign.

A nondirectional hypothesis contains the not equal sign (“≠”).  However, a null hypothesis is neither directional nor non-directional.

A null hypothesis is a prediction that there will be no change, relationship, or difference between two variables.

The directional hypothesis or nondirectional hypothesis would then be considered alternative hypotheses to the null hypothesis.

Gill, J. (1999). The insignificance of null hypothesis significance testing.  Political research quarterly ,  52 (3), 647-674.

Krueger, J. (2001). Null hypothesis significance testing: On the survival of a flawed method.  American Psychologist ,  56 (1), 16.

Masson, M. E. (2011). A tutorial on a practical Bayesian alternative to null-hypothesis significance testing.  Behavior research methods ,  43 , 679-690.

Nickerson, R. S. (2000). Null hypothesis significance testing: a review of an old and continuing controversy.  Psychological methods ,  5 (2), 241.

Rozeboom, W. W. (1960). The fallacy of the null-hypothesis significance test.  Psychological bulletin ,  57 (5), 416.

Hypothesis Testing (cont...)

Hypothesis testing, the null and alternative hypothesis.

In order to undertake hypothesis testing you need to express your research hypothesis as a null and alternative hypothesis. The null hypothesis and alternative hypothesis are statements regarding the differences or effects that occur in the population. You will use your sample to test which statement (i.e., the null hypothesis or alternative hypothesis) is most likely (although technically, you test the evidence against the null hypothesis). So, with respect to our teaching example, the null and alternative hypothesis will reflect statements about all statistics students on graduate management courses.

The null hypothesis is essentially the "devil's advocate" position. That is, it assumes that whatever you are trying to prove did not happen ( hint: it usually states that something equals zero). For example, the two different teaching methods did not result in different exam performances (i.e., zero difference). Another example might be that there is no relationship between anxiety and athletic performance (i.e., the slope is zero). The alternative hypothesis states the opposite and is usually the hypothesis you are trying to prove (e.g., the two different teaching methods did result in different exam performances). Initially, you can state these hypotheses in more general terms (e.g., using terms like "effect", "relationship", etc.), as shown below for the teaching methods example:

Depending on how you want to "summarize" the exam performances will determine how you might want to write a more specific null and alternative hypothesis. For example, you could compare the mean exam performance of each group (i.e., the "seminar" group and the "lectures-only" group). This is what we will demonstrate here, but other options include comparing the distributions , medians , amongst other things. As such, we can state:

Now that you have identified the null and alternative hypotheses, you need to find evidence and develop a strategy for declaring your "support" for either the null or alternative hypothesis. We can do this using some statistical theory and some arbitrary cut-off points. Both these issues are dealt with next.

Significance levels

The level of statistical significance is often expressed as the so-called p -value . Depending on the statistical test you have chosen, you will calculate a probability (i.e., the p -value) of observing your sample results (or more extreme) given that the null hypothesis is true . Another way of phrasing this is to consider the probability that a difference in a mean score (or other statistic) could have arisen based on the assumption that there really is no difference. Let us consider this statement with respect to our example where we are interested in the difference in mean exam performance between two different teaching methods. If there really is no difference between the two teaching methods in the population (i.e., given that the null hypothesis is true), how likely would it be to see a difference in the mean exam performance between the two teaching methods as large as (or larger than) that which has been observed in your sample?

So, you might get a p -value such as 0.03 (i.e., p = .03). This means that there is a 3% chance of finding a difference as large as (or larger than) the one in your study given that the null hypothesis is true. However, you want to know whether this is "statistically significant". Typically, if there was a 5% or less chance (5 times in 100 or less) that the difference in the mean exam performance between the two teaching methods (or whatever statistic you are using) is as different as observed given the null hypothesis is true, you would reject the null hypothesis and accept the alternative hypothesis. Alternately, if the chance was greater than 5% (5 times in 100 or more), you would fail to reject the null hypothesis and would not accept the alternative hypothesis. As such, in this example where p = .03, we would reject the null hypothesis and accept the alternative hypothesis. We reject it because at a significance level of 0.03 (i.e., less than a 5% chance), the result we obtained could happen too frequently for us to be confident that it was the two teaching methods that had an effect on exam performance.

Whilst there is relatively little justification why a significance level of 0.05 is used rather than 0.01 or 0.10, for example, it is widely used in academic research. However, if you want to be particularly confident in your results, you can set a more stringent level of 0.01 (a 1% chance or less; 1 in 100 chance or less).

One- and two-tailed predictions

When considering whether we reject the null hypothesis and accept the alternative hypothesis, we need to consider the direction of the alternative hypothesis statement. For example, the alternative hypothesis that was stated earlier is:

The alternative hypothesis tells us two things. First, what predictions did we make about the effect of the independent variable(s) on the dependent variable(s)? Second, what was the predicted direction of this effect? Let's use our example to highlight these two points.

Sarah predicted that her teaching method (independent variable: teaching method), whereby she not only required her students to attend lectures, but also seminars, would have a positive effect (that is, increased) students' performance (dependent variable: exam marks). If an alternative hypothesis has a direction (and this is how you want to test it), the hypothesis is one-tailed. That is, it predicts direction of the effect. If the alternative hypothesis has stated that the effect was expected to be negative, this is also a one-tailed hypothesis.

Alternatively, a two-tailed prediction means that we do not make a choice over the direction that the effect of the experiment takes. Rather, it simply implies that the effect could be negative or positive. If Sarah had made a two-tailed prediction, the alternative hypothesis might have been:

In other words, we simply take out the word "positive", which implies the direction of our effect. In our example, making a two-tailed prediction may seem strange. After all, it would be logical to expect that "extra" tuition (going to seminar classes as well as lectures) would either have a positive effect on students' performance or no effect at all, but certainly not a negative effect. However, this is just our opinion (and hope) and certainly does not mean that we will get the effect we expect. Generally speaking, making a one-tail prediction (i.e., and testing for it this way) is frowned upon as it usually reflects the hope of a researcher rather than any certainty that it will happen. Notable exceptions to this rule are when there is only one possible way in which a change could occur. This can happen, for example, when biological activity/presence in measured. That is, a protein might be "dormant" and the stimulus you are using can only possibly "wake it up" (i.e., it cannot possibly reduce the activity of a "dormant" protein). In addition, for some statistical tests, one-tailed tests are not possible.

Rejecting or failing to reject the null hypothesis

Let's return finally to the question of whether we reject or fail to reject the null hypothesis.

If our statistical analysis shows that the significance level is below the cut-off value we have set (e.g., either 0.05 or 0.01), we reject the null hypothesis and accept the alternative hypothesis. Alternatively, if the significance level is above the cut-off value, we fail to reject the null hypothesis and cannot accept the alternative hypothesis. You should note that you cannot accept the null hypothesis, but only find evidence against it.

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• Null and Alternative Hypotheses | Definitions & Examples

Null & Alternative Hypotheses | Definitions, Templates & Examples

Published on May 6, 2022 by Shaun Turney . Revised on June 22, 2023.

The null and alternative hypotheses are two competing claims that researchers weigh evidence for and against using a statistical test :

• Null hypothesis ( H 0 ): There’s no effect in the population .
• Alternative hypothesis ( H a or H 1 ) : There’s an effect in the population.

Table of contents

Answering your research question with hypotheses, what is a null hypothesis, what is an alternative hypothesis, similarities and differences between null and alternative hypotheses, how to write null and alternative hypotheses, other interesting articles, frequently asked questions.

The null and alternative hypotheses offer competing answers to your research question . When the research question asks “Does the independent variable affect the dependent variable?”:

• The null hypothesis ( H 0 ) answers “No, there’s no effect in the population.”
• The alternative hypothesis ( H a ) answers “Yes, there is an effect in the population.”

The null and alternative are always claims about the population. That’s because the goal of hypothesis testing is to make inferences about a population based on a sample . Often, we infer whether there’s an effect in the population by looking at differences between groups or relationships between variables in the sample. It’s critical for your research to write strong hypotheses .

You can use a statistical test to decide whether the evidence favors the null or alternative hypothesis. Each type of statistical test comes with a specific way of phrasing the null and alternative hypothesis. However, the hypotheses can also be phrased in a general way that applies to any test.

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The null hypothesis is the claim that there’s no effect in the population.

If the sample provides enough evidence against the claim that there’s no effect in the population ( p ≤ α), then we can reject the null hypothesis . Otherwise, we fail to reject the null hypothesis.

Although “fail to reject” may sound awkward, it’s the only wording that statisticians accept . Be careful not to say you “prove” or “accept” the null hypothesis.

Null hypotheses often include phrases such as “no effect,” “no difference,” or “no relationship.” When written in mathematical terms, they always include an equality (usually =, but sometimes ≥ or ≤).

You can never know with complete certainty whether there is an effect in the population. Some percentage of the time, your inference about the population will be incorrect. When you incorrectly reject the null hypothesis, it’s called a type I error . When you incorrectly fail to reject it, it’s a type II error.

Examples of null hypotheses

The table below gives examples of research questions and null hypotheses. There’s always more than one way to answer a research question, but these null hypotheses can help you get started.

*Note that some researchers prefer to always write the null hypothesis in terms of “no effect” and “=”. It would be fine to say that daily meditation has no effect on the incidence of depression and p 1 = p 2 .

The alternative hypothesis ( H a ) is the other answer to your research question . It claims that there’s an effect in the population.

Often, your alternative hypothesis is the same as your research hypothesis. In other words, it’s the claim that you expect or hope will be true.

The alternative hypothesis is the complement to the null hypothesis. Null and alternative hypotheses are exhaustive, meaning that together they cover every possible outcome. They are also mutually exclusive, meaning that only one can be true at a time.

Alternative hypotheses often include phrases such as “an effect,” “a difference,” or “a relationship.” When alternative hypotheses are written in mathematical terms, they always include an inequality (usually ≠, but sometimes < or >). As with null hypotheses, there are many acceptable ways to phrase an alternative hypothesis.

Examples of alternative hypotheses

The table below gives examples of research questions and alternative hypotheses to help you get started with formulating your own.

Null and alternative hypotheses are similar in some ways:

• They’re both answers to the research question.
• They both make claims about the population.
• They’re both evaluated by statistical tests.

However, there are important differences between the two types of hypotheses, summarized in the following table.

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To help you write your hypotheses, you can use the template sentences below. If you know which statistical test you’re going to use, you can use the test-specific template sentences. Otherwise, you can use the general template sentences.

General template sentences

The only thing you need to know to use these general template sentences are your dependent and independent variables. To write your research question, null hypothesis, and alternative hypothesis, fill in the following sentences with your variables:

Does independent variable affect dependent variable ?

• Null hypothesis ( H 0 ): Independent variable does not affect dependent variable.
• Alternative hypothesis ( H a ): Independent variable affects dependent variable.

Test-specific template sentences

Once you know the statistical test you’ll be using, you can write your hypotheses in a more precise and mathematical way specific to the test you chose. The table below provides template sentences for common statistical tests.

Note: The template sentences above assume that you’re performing one-tailed tests . One-tailed tests are appropriate for most studies.

If you want to know more about statistics , methodology , or research bias , make sure to check out some of our other articles with explanations and examples.

• Normal distribution
• Descriptive statistics
• Measures of central tendency
• Correlation coefficient

Methodology

• Cluster sampling
• Stratified sampling
• Types of interviews
• Cohort study
• Thematic analysis

Research bias

• Implicit bias
• Cognitive bias
• Survivorship bias
• Availability heuristic
• Nonresponse bias
• Regression to the mean

Hypothesis testing is a formal procedure for investigating our ideas about the world using statistics. It is used by scientists to test specific predictions, called hypotheses , by calculating how likely it is that a pattern or relationship between variables could have arisen by chance.

Null and alternative hypotheses are used in statistical hypothesis testing . The null hypothesis of a test always predicts no effect or no relationship between variables, while the alternative hypothesis states your research prediction of an effect or relationship.

The null hypothesis is often abbreviated as H 0 . When the null hypothesis is written using mathematical symbols, it always includes an equality symbol (usually =, but sometimes ≥ or ≤).

The alternative hypothesis is often abbreviated as H a or H 1 . When the alternative hypothesis is written using mathematical symbols, it always includes an inequality symbol (usually ≠, but sometimes < or >).

A research hypothesis is your proposed answer to your research question. The research hypothesis usually includes an explanation (“ x affects y because …”).

A statistical hypothesis, on the other hand, is a mathematical statement about a population parameter. Statistical hypotheses always come in pairs: the null and alternative hypotheses . In a well-designed study , the statistical hypotheses correspond logically to the research hypothesis.

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6a.1 - introduction to hypothesis testing, basic terms section  .

The first step in hypothesis testing is to set up two competing hypotheses. The hypotheses are the most important aspect. If the hypotheses are incorrect, your conclusion will also be incorrect.

The two hypotheses are named the null hypothesis and the alternative hypothesis.

The goal of hypothesis testing is to see if there is enough evidence against the null hypothesis. In other words, to see if there is enough evidence to reject the null hypothesis. If there is not enough evidence, then we fail to reject the null hypothesis.

Consider the following example where we set up these hypotheses.

Example 6-1 Section  

A man, Mr. Orangejuice, goes to trial and is tried for the murder of his ex-wife. He is either guilty or innocent. Set up the null and alternative hypotheses for this example.

Putting this in a hypothesis testing framework, the hypotheses being tested are:

• The man is guilty
• The man is innocent

Let's set up the null and alternative hypotheses.

\(H_0\colon \) Mr. Orangejuice is innocent

\(H_a\colon \) Mr. Orangejuice is guilty

Remember that we assume the null hypothesis is true and try to see if we have evidence against the null. Therefore, it makes sense in this example to assume the man is innocent and test to see if there is evidence that he is guilty.

The Logic of Hypothesis Testing Section  

We want to know the answer to a research question. We determine our null and alternative hypotheses. Now it is time to make a decision.

The decision is either going to be...

• reject the null hypothesis or...
• fail to reject the null hypothesis.

Consider the following table. The table shows the decision/conclusion of the hypothesis test and the unknown "reality", or truth. We do not know if the null is true or if it is false. If the null is false and we reject it, then we made the correct decision. If the null hypothesis is true and we fail to reject it, then we made the correct decision.

So what happens when we do not make the correct decision?

When doing hypothesis testing, two types of mistakes may be made and we call them Type I error and Type II error. If we reject the null hypothesis when it is true, then we made a type I error. If the null hypothesis is false and we failed to reject it, we made another error called a Type II error.

Types of errors

The “reality”, or truth, about the null hypothesis is unknown and therefore we do not know if we have made the correct decision or if we committed an error. We can, however, define the likelihood of these events.

\(\alpha\) and \(\beta\) are probabilities of committing an error so we want these values to be low. However, we cannot decrease both. As \(\alpha\) decreases, \(\beta\) increases.

Example 6-1 Cont'd... Section  

A man, Mr. Orangejuice, goes to trial and is tried for the murder of his ex-wife. He is either guilty or not guilty. We found before that...

• \( H_0\colon \) Mr. Orangejuice is innocent
• \( H_a\colon \) Mr. Orangejuice is guilty

Interpret Type I error, \(\alpha \), Type II error, \(\beta \).

As you can see here, the Type I error (putting an innocent man in jail) is the more serious error. Ethically, it is more serious to put an innocent man in jail than to let a guilty man go free. So to minimize the probability of a type I error we would choose a smaller significance level.

Try it! Section  

An inspector has to choose between certifying a building as safe or saying that the building is not safe. There are two hypotheses:

• Building is safe
• Building is not safe

Set up the null and alternative hypotheses. Interpret Type I and Type II error.

\( H_0\colon\) Building is not safe vs \(H_a\colon \) Building is safe

Power and \(\beta \) are complements of each other. Therefore, they have an inverse relationship, i.e. as one increases, the other decreases.

Chapter 2: Summarizing and Visualizing Data

Chapter 3: measure of central tendency, chapter 4: measures of variation, chapter 5: measures of relative standing, chapter 6: probability distributions, chapter 7: estimates, chapter 8: distributions, chapter 9: hypothesis testing, chapter 10: analysis of variance, chapter 11: correlation and regression, chapter 12: statistics in practice.

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In an experiment, a farm with infected plants is subjected to a widely applicable insecticide.

This insecticide is expected to increase the number of healthy plants after its application. However, at the end of the experiment, the proportion of healthy and infected plants remained the same.

Here, the null hypothesis that the insecticide has no effect seems to hold, but should one accept the hypothesis or fail to reject it?

Accepting this hypothesis would mean that the insecticide is ineffective and cannot improve the plants' health.

This decision actually overlooks the other plausible explanations for the observed results.

In this case, using an unprescribed amount or concentration of insecticide might have resulted in no effect.

There is a possibility of plants being infected by something that the insecticide cannot target.

Failing to reject a null hypothesis means there is no sufficient evidence for the expected or the observed effect.

Today, if scientists had accepted null hypotheses, the discovery of plant viruses or the rediscovery of many extinct species would not have been possible.

9.8: Hypothesis: Accept or Fail to Reject?

The outcome of any hypothesis testing leads to rejecting or not rejecting the null hypothesis. This decision is taken based on the analysis of the data, an appropriate test statistic, an appropriate confidence level, the critical values, and P -values. However, when the evidence suggests that the null hypothesis cannot be rejected, is it right to say, 'Accept' the null hypothesis?

There are two ways to indicate that the null hypothesis is not rejected. 'Accept' the null hypothesis and 'fail to reject' the null hypothesis. Superficially, both these phrases mean the same, but in statistics, the meanings are somewhat different. The phrase 'accept the null hypothesis' implies that the null hypothesis is by nature true, and it is proved. But a hypothesis test simply provides information that there is no sufficient evidence in support of the alternative hypothesis, and therefore the null hypothesis cannot be rejected. The null hypothesis cannot be proven, although the hypothesis test begins with an assumption that the hypothesis is true, and the final result indicates the failure of the rejection of the null hypothesis. Thus, it is always advisable to state 'fail to reject the null hypothesis' instead of 'accept the null hypothesis.'

'Accepting' a hypothesis may also imply that the given hypothesis is now proven, so there is no need to study it further. Nevertheless, that is never the case, as newer scientific evidence often challenges the existing studies. Discovery of viruses and fossils, rediscovery of presumed extinct species, criminal trials, and novel drug tests follow the same principles of testing hypotheses. In those cases, 'accepting' a hypothesis may lead to severe consequences.

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• Null hypothesis

by Marco Taboga , PhD

In a test of hypothesis , a sample of data is used to decide whether to reject or not to reject a hypothesis about the probability distribution from which the sample was extracted.

The hypothesis is called the null hypothesis, or simply "the null".

Table of contents

The null is like the defendant in a criminal trial

How is the null hypothesis tested, example 1 - proportion of defective items, measurement, test statistic, critical region, interpretation, example 2 - reliability of a production plant, rejection and failure to reject, not rejecting and accepting are not the same thing, failure to reject can be due to lack of power, rejections are easier to interpret, but be careful, takeaways - how to (and not to) formulate a null hypothesis, more examples, more details, best practices in science, keep reading the glossary.

Formulating null hypotheses and subjecting them to statistical testing is one of the workhorses of the scientific method.

Scientists in all fields make conjectures about the phenomena they study, translate them into null hypotheses and gather data to test them.

This process resembles a trial:

the defendant (the null hypothesis) is accused of being guilty (wrong);

evidence (data) is gathered in order to prove the defendant guilty (reject the null);

if there is evidence beyond any reasonable doubt, the defendant is found guilty (the null is rejected);

otherwise, the defendant is found not guilty (the null is not rejected).

Keep this analogy in mind because it helps to better understand statistical tests, their limitations, use and misuse, and frequent misinterpretation.

Before collecting the data:

we decide how to summarize the relevant characteristics of the sample data in a single number, the so-called test statistic ;

we derive the probability distribution of the test statistic under the hypothesis that the null is true (the data is regarded as random; therefore, the test statistic is a random variable);

we decide what probability of incorrectly rejecting the null we are willing to tolerate (the level of significance , or size of the test ); the level of significance is typically a small number, such as 5% or 1%.

we choose one or more intervals of values (collectively called rejection region) such that the probability that the test statistic falls within these intervals is equal to the desired level of significance; the rejection region is often a tail of the distribution of the test statistic (one-tailed test) or the union of the left and right tails (two-tailed test).

Then, the data is collected and used to compute the value of the test statistic.

A decision is taken as follows:

if the test statistic falls within the rejection region, then the null hypothesis is rejected;

otherwise, it is not rejected.

We now make two examples of practical problems that lead to formulate and test a null hypothesis.

A new method is proposed to produce light bulbs.

The proponents claim that it produces less defective bulbs than the method currently in use.

To check the claim, we can set up a statistical test as follows.

We keep the light bulbs on for 10 consecutive days, and then we record whether they are still working at the end of the test period.

The probability that a light bulb produced with the new method is still working at the end of the test period is the same as that of a light bulb produced with the old method.

100 light bulbs are tested:

50 of them are produced with the new method (group A)

the remaining 50 are produced with the old method (group B).

The final data comprises 100 observations of:

an indicator variable which is equal to 1 if the light bulb is still working at the end of the test period and 0 otherwise;

a categorical variable that records the group (A or B) to which each light bulb belongs.

We use the data to compute the proportions of working light bulbs in groups A and B.

The proportions are estimates of the probabilities of not being defective, which are equal for the two groups under the null hypothesis.

We then compute a z-statistic (see here for details) by:

taking the difference between the proportion in group A and the proportion in group B;

standardizing the difference:

we subtract the expected value (which is zero under the null hypothesis);

we divide by the standard deviation (it can be derived analytically).

The distribution of the z-statistic can be approximated by a standard normal distribution .

We decide that the level of confidence must be 5%. In other words, we are going to tolerate a 5% probability of incorrectly rejecting the null hypothesis.

The critical region is the right 5%-tail of the normal distribution, that is, the set of all values greater than 1.645 (see the glossary entry on critical values if you are wondering how this value was obtained).

If the test statistic is greater than 1.645, then the null hypothesis is rejected; otherwise, it is not rejected.

A rejection is interpreted as significant evidence that the new production method produces less defective items; failure to reject is interpreted as insufficient evidence that the new method is better.

A production plant incurs high costs when production needs to be halted because some machinery fails.

The plant manager has decided that he is not willing to tolerate more than one halt per year on average.

If the expected number of halts per year is greater than 1, he will make new investments in order to improve the reliability of the plant.

A statistical test is set up as follows.

The reliability of the plant is measured by the number of halts.

The number of halts in a year is assumed to have a Poisson distribution with expected value equal to 1 (using the Poisson distribution is common in reliability testing).

The manager cannot wait more than one year before taking a decision.

There will be a single datum at his disposal: the number of halts observed during one year.

The number of halts is used as a test statistic. By assumption, it has a Poisson distribution under the null hypothesis.

The manager decides that the probability of incorrectly rejecting the null can be at most 10%.

A Poisson random variable with expected value equal to 1 takes values:

larger than 1 with probability 26.42%;

larger than 2 with probability 8.03%.

Therefore, it is decided that the critical region will be the set of all values greater than or equal to 3.

If the test statistic is strictly greater than or equal to 3, then the null is rejected; otherwise, it is not rejected.

A rejection is interpreted as significant evidence that the production plant is not reliable enough (the average number of halts per year is significantly larger than tolerated).

Failure to reject is interpreted as insufficient evidence that the plant is unreliable.

This section discusses the main problems that arise in the interpretation of the outcome of a statistical test (reject / not reject).

When the test statistic does not fall within the critical region, then we do not reject the null hypothesis.

Does this mean that we accept the null? Not really.

In general, failure to reject does not constitute, per se, strong evidence that the null hypothesis is true .

Remember the analogy between hypothesis testing and a criminal trial. In a trial, when the defendant is declared not guilty, this does not mean that the defendant is innocent. It only means that there was not enough evidence (not beyond any reasonable doubt) against the defendant.

In turn, lack of evidence can be due:

either to the fact that the defendant is innocent ;

or to the fact that the prosecution has not been able to provide enough evidence against the defendant, even if the latter is guilty .

This is the very reason why courts do not declare defendants innocent, but they use the locution "not guilty".

In a similar fashion, statisticians do not say that the null hypothesis has been accepted, but they say that it has not been rejected.

To better understand why failure to reject does not in general constitute strong evidence that the null hypothesis is true, we need to use the concept of statistical power .

The power of a test is the probability (calculated ex-ante, i.e., before observing the data) that the null will be rejected when another hypothesis (called the alternative hypothesis ) is true.

Let's consider the first of the two examples above (the production of light bulbs).

In that example, the null hypothesis is: the probability that a light bulb is defective does not decrease after introducing a new production method.

Let's make the alternative hypothesis that the probability of being defective is 1% smaller after changing the production process (assume that a 1% decrease is considered a meaningful improvement by engineers).

How much is the ex-ante probability of rejecting the null if the alternative hypothesis is true?

If this probability (the power of the test) is small, then it is very likely that we will not reject the null even if it is wrong.

If we use the analogy with criminal trials, low power means that most likely the prosecution will not be able to provide sufficient evidence, even if the defendant is guilty.

Thus, in the case of lack of power, failure to reject is almost meaningless (it was anyway highly likely).

This is why, before performing a test, it is good statistical practice to compute its power against a relevant alternative .

If the power is found to be too small, there are usually remedies. In particular, statistical power can usually be increased by increasing the sample size (see, e.g., the lecture on hypothesis tests about the mean ).

As we have explained above, interpreting a failure to reject the null hypothesis is not always straightforward. Instead, interpreting a rejection is somewhat easier.

When we reject the null, we know that the data has provided a lot of evidence against the null. In other words, it is unlikely (how unlikely depends on the size of the test) that the null is true given the data we have observed.

There is an important caveat though. The null hypothesis is often made up of several assumptions, including:

the main assumption (the one we are testing);

other assumptions (e.g., technical assumptions) that we need to make in order to set up the hypothesis test.

For instance, in Example 2 above (reliability of a production plant), the main assumption is that the expected number of production halts per year is equal to 1. But there is also a technical assumption: the number of production halts has a Poisson distribution.

It must be kept in mind that a rejection is always a joint rejection of the main assumption and all the other assumptions .

Therefore, we should always ask ourselves whether the null has been rejected because the main assumption is wrong or because the other assumptions are violated.

In the case of Example 2 above, is a rejection of the null due to the fact that the expected number of halts is greater than 1 or is it due to the fact that the distribution of the number of halts is very different from a Poisson distribution?

When we suspect that a rejection is due to the inappropriateness of some technical assumption (e.g., assuming a Poisson distribution in the example), we say that the rejection could be due to misspecification of the model .

The right thing to do when these kind of suspicions arise is to conduct so-called robustness checks , that is, to change the technical assumptions and carry out the test again.

In our example, we could re-run the test by assuming a different probability distribution for the number of halts (e.g., a negative binomial or a compound Poisson - do not worry if you have never heard about these distributions).

If we keep obtaining a rejection of the null even after changing the technical assumptions several times, the we say that our rejection is robust to several different specifications of the model .

What are the main practical implications of everything we have said thus far? How does the theory above help us to set up and test a null hypothesis?

What we said can be summarized in the following guiding principles:

A test of hypothesis is like a criminal trial and you are the prosecutor . You want to find evidence that the defendant (the null hypothesis) is guilty. Your job is not to prove that the defendant is innocent. If you find yourself hoping that the defendant is found not guilty (i.e., the null is not rejected) then something is wrong with the way you set up the test. Remember: you are the prosecutor.

Compute the power of your test against one or more relevant alternative hypotheses. Do not run a test if you know ex-ante that it is unlikely to reject the null when the alternative hypothesis is true.

Beware of technical assumptions that you add to the main assumption you want to test. Make robustness checks in order to verify that the outcome of the test is not biased by model misspecification.

More examples of null hypotheses and how to test them can be found in the following lectures.

The lecture on Hypothesis testing provides a more detailed mathematical treatment of null hypotheses and how they are tested.

This lecture on the null hypothesis was featured in Stanford University's Best practices in science .

Previous entry: Normal equations

Next entry: Parameter

How to cite

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Taboga, Marco (2021). "Null hypothesis", Lectures on probability theory and mathematical statistics. Kindle Direct Publishing. Online appendix. https://www.statlect.com/glossary/null-hypothesis.

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9.1 Null and Alternative Hypotheses

The actual test begins by considering two hypotheses . They are called the null hypothesis and the alternative hypothesis . These hypotheses contain opposing viewpoints.

H 0 , the — null hypothesis: a statement of no difference between sample means or proportions or no difference between a sample mean or proportion and a population mean or proportion. In other words, the difference equals 0.

H a —, the alternative hypothesis: a claim about the population that is contradictory to H 0 and what we conclude when we reject H 0 .

Since the null and alternative hypotheses are contradictory, you must examine evidence to decide if you have enough evidence to reject the null hypothesis or not. The evidence is in the form of sample data.

After you have determined which hypothesis the sample supports, you make a decision. There are two options for a decision. They are reject H 0 if the sample information favors the alternative hypothesis or do not reject H 0 or decline to reject H 0 if the sample information is insufficient to reject the null hypothesis.

Mathematical Symbols Used in H 0 and H a :

H 0 always has a symbol with an equal in it. H a never has a symbol with an equal in it. The choice of symbol depends on the wording of the hypothesis test. However, be aware that many researchers use = in the null hypothesis, even with > or < as the symbol in the alternative hypothesis. This practice is acceptable because we only make the decision to reject or not reject the null hypothesis.

Example 9.1

H 0 : No more than 30 percent of the registered voters in Santa Clara County voted in the primary election. p ≤ 30 H a : More than 30 percent of the registered voters in Santa Clara County voted in the primary election. p > 30

A medical trial is conducted to test whether or not a new medicine reduces cholesterol by 25 percent. State the null and alternative hypotheses.

Example 9.2

We want to test whether the mean GPA of students in American colleges is different from 2.0 (out of 4.0). The null and alternative hypotheses are the following: H 0 : μ = 2.0 H a : μ ≠ 2.0

We want to test whether the mean height of eighth graders is 66 inches. State the null and alternative hypotheses. Fill in the correct symbol (=, ≠, ≥, <, ≤, >) for the null and alternative hypotheses.

• H 0 : μ __ 66
• H a : μ __ 66

Example 9.3

We want to test if college students take fewer than five years to graduate from college, on the average. The null and alternative hypotheses are the following: H 0 : μ ≥ 5 H a : μ < 5

We want to test if it takes fewer than 45 minutes to teach a lesson plan. State the null and alternative hypotheses. Fill in the correct symbol ( =, ≠, ≥, <, ≤, >) for the null and alternative hypotheses.

• H 0 : μ __ 45
• H a : μ __ 45

Example 9.4

An article on school standards stated that about half of all students in France, Germany, and Israel take advanced placement exams and a third of the students pass. The same article stated that 6.6 percent of U.S. students take advanced placement exams and 4.4 percent pass. Test if the percentage of U.S. students who take advanced placement exams is more than 6.6 percent. State the null and alternative hypotheses. H 0 : p ≤ 0.066 H a : p > 0.066

On a state driver’s test, about 40 percent pass the test on the first try. We want to test if more than 40 percent pass on the first try. Fill in the correct symbol (=, ≠, ≥, <, ≤, >) for the null and alternative hypotheses.

• H 0 : p __ 0.40
• H a : p __ 0.40

Collaborative Exercise

Bring to class a newspaper, some news magazines, and some internet articles. In groups, find articles from which your group can write null and alternative hypotheses. Discuss your hypotheses with the rest of the class.

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9.1: Null and Alternative Hypotheses

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The actual test begins by considering two hypotheses . They are called the null hypothesis and the alternative hypothesis . These hypotheses contain opposing viewpoints.

\(H_0\): The null hypothesis: It is a statement of no difference between the variables—they are not related. This can often be considered the status quo and as a result if you cannot accept the null it requires some action.

\(H_a\): The alternative hypothesis: It is a claim about the population that is contradictory to \(H_0\) and what we conclude when we reject \(H_0\). This is usually what the researcher is trying to prove.

Since the null and alternative hypotheses are contradictory, you must examine evidence to decide if you have enough evidence to reject the null hypothesis or not. The evidence is in the form of sample data.

After you have determined which hypothesis the sample supports, you make a decision. There are two options for a decision. They are "reject \(H_0\)" if the sample information favors the alternative hypothesis or "do not reject \(H_0\)" or "decline to reject \(H_0\)" if the sample information is insufficient to reject the null hypothesis.

\(H_{0}\) always has a symbol with an equal in it. \(H_{a}\) never has a symbol with an equal in it. The choice of symbol depends on the wording of the hypothesis test. However, be aware that many researchers (including one of the co-authors in research work) use = in the null hypothesis, even with > or < as the symbol in the alternative hypothesis. This practice is acceptable because we only make the decision to reject or not reject the null hypothesis.

Example \(\PageIndex{1}\)

• \(H_{0}\): No more than 30% of the registered voters in Santa Clara County voted in the primary election. \(p \leq 30\)
• \(H_{a}\): More than 30% of the registered voters in Santa Clara County voted in the primary election. \(p > 30\)

Exercise \(\PageIndex{1}\)

A medical trial is conducted to test whether or not a new medicine reduces cholesterol by 25%. State the null and alternative hypotheses.

• \(H_{0}\): The drug reduces cholesterol by 25%. \(p = 0.25\)
• \(H_{a}\): The drug does not reduce cholesterol by 25%. \(p \neq 0.25\)

Example \(\PageIndex{2}\)

We want to test whether the mean GPA of students in American colleges is different from 2.0 (out of 4.0). The null and alternative hypotheses are:

• \(H_{0}: \mu = 2.0\)
• \(H_{a}: \mu \neq 2.0\)

Exercise \(\PageIndex{2}\)

We want to test whether the mean height of eighth graders is 66 inches. State the null and alternative hypotheses. Fill in the correct symbol \((=, \neq, \geq, <, \leq, >)\) for the null and alternative hypotheses.

• \(H_{0}: \mu \_ 66\)
• \(H_{a}: \mu \_ 66\)
• \(H_{0}: \mu = 66\)
• \(H_{a}: \mu \neq 66\)

Example \(\PageIndex{3}\)

We want to test if college students take less than five years to graduate from college, on the average. The null and alternative hypotheses are:

• \(H_{0}: \mu \geq 5\)
• \(H_{a}: \mu < 5\)

Exercise \(\PageIndex{3}\)

We want to test if it takes fewer than 45 minutes to teach a lesson plan. State the null and alternative hypotheses. Fill in the correct symbol ( =, ≠, ≥, <, ≤, >) for the null and alternative hypotheses.

• \(H_{0}: \mu \_ 45\)
• \(H_{a}: \mu \_ 45\)
• \(H_{0}: \mu \geq 45\)
• \(H_{a}: \mu < 45\)

Example \(\PageIndex{4}\)

In an issue of U. S. News and World Report , an article on school standards stated that about half of all students in France, Germany, and Israel take advanced placement exams and a third pass. The same article stated that 6.6% of U.S. students take advanced placement exams and 4.4% pass. Test if the percentage of U.S. students who take advanced placement exams is more than 6.6%. State the null and alternative hypotheses.

• \(H_{0}: p \leq 0.066\)
• \(H_{a}: p > 0.066\)

Exercise \(\PageIndex{4}\)

On a state driver’s test, about 40% pass the test on the first try. We want to test if more than 40% pass on the first try. Fill in the correct symbol (\(=, \neq, \geq, <, \leq, >\)) for the null and alternative hypotheses.

• \(H_{0}: p \_ 0.40\)
• \(H_{a}: p \_ 0.40\)
• \(H_{0}: p = 0.40\)
• \(H_{a}: p > 0.40\)

COLLABORATIVE EXERCISE

Bring to class a newspaper, some news magazines, and some Internet articles . In groups, find articles from which your group can write null and alternative hypotheses. Discuss your hypotheses with the rest of the class.

In a hypothesis test , sample data is evaluated in order to arrive at a decision about some type of claim. If certain conditions about the sample are satisfied, then the claim can be evaluated for a population. In a hypothesis test, we:

• Evaluate the null hypothesis , typically denoted with \(H_{0}\). The null is not rejected unless the hypothesis test shows otherwise. The null statement must always contain some form of equality \((=, \leq \text{or} \geq)\)
• Always write the alternative hypothesis , typically denoted with \(H_{a}\) or \(H_{1}\), using less than, greater than, or not equals symbols, i.e., \((\neq, >, \text{or} <)\).
• If we reject the null hypothesis, then we can assume there is enough evidence to support the alternative hypothesis.
• Never state that a claim is proven true or false. Keep in mind the underlying fact that hypothesis testing is based on probability laws; therefore, we can talk only in terms of non-absolute certainties.

Formula Review

\(H_{0}\) and \(H_{a}\) are contradictory.

• If \(\alpha \leq p\)-value, then do not reject \(H_{0}\).
• If\(\alpha > p\)-value, then reject \(H_{0}\).

\(\alpha\) is preconceived. Its value is set before the hypothesis test starts. The \(p\)-value is calculated from the data.References

Data from the National Institute of Mental Health. Available online at http://www.nimh.nih.gov/publicat/depression.cfm .

Using a confidence interval to decide whether to reject the null hypothesis

Suppose that you do a hypothesis test. Remember that the decision to reject the null hypothesis (H 0 ) or fail to reject it can be based on the p-value and your chosen significance level (also called α). If the p-value is less than or equal to α, you reject H 0 ; if it is greater than α, you fail to reject H 0 .

• If the reference value specified in H 0 lies outside the interval (that is, is less than the lower bound or greater than the upper bound), you can reject H 0 .
• If the reference value specified in H 0 lies within the interval (that is, is not less than the lower bound or greater than the upper bound), you fail to reject H 0 .
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Understanding the Null Hypothesis for Linear Regression

Linear regression is a technique we can use to understand the relationship between one or more predictor variables and a response variable .

If we only have one predictor variable and one response variable, we can use simple linear regression , which uses the following formula to estimate the relationship between the variables:

ŷ = β 0 + β 1 x

• ŷ: The estimated response value.
• β 0 : The average value of y when x is zero.
• β 1 : The average change in y associated with a one unit increase in x.
• x: The value of the predictor variable.

Simple linear regression uses the following null and alternative hypotheses:

• H 0 : β 1 = 0
• H A : β 1 ≠ 0

The null hypothesis states that the coefficient β 1 is equal to zero. In other words, there is no statistically significant relationship between the predictor variable, x, and the response variable, y.

The alternative hypothesis states that β 1 is not equal to zero. In other words, there is a statistically significant relationship between x and y.

If we have multiple predictor variables and one response variable, we can use multiple linear regression , which uses the following formula to estimate the relationship between the variables:

ŷ = β 0 + β 1 x 1 + β 2 x 2 + … + β k x k

• β 0 : The average value of y when all predictor variables are equal to zero.
• β i : The average change in y associated with a one unit increase in x i .
• x i : The value of the predictor variable x i .

Multiple linear regression uses the following null and alternative hypotheses:

• H 0 : β 1 = β 2 = … = β k = 0
• H A : β 1 = β 2 = … = β k ≠ 0

The null hypothesis states that all coefficients in the model are equal to zero. In other words, none of the predictor variables have a statistically significant relationship with the response variable, y.

The alternative hypothesis states that not every coefficient is simultaneously equal to zero.

The following examples show how to decide to reject or fail to reject the null hypothesis in both simple linear regression and multiple linear regression models.

Example 1: Simple Linear Regression

Suppose a professor would like to use the number of hours studied to predict the exam score that students will receive in his class. He collects data for 20 students and fits a simple linear regression model.

The following screenshot shows the output of the regression model:

The fitted simple linear regression model is:

Exam Score = 67.1617 + 5.2503*(hours studied)

To determine if there is a statistically significant relationship between hours studied and exam score, we need to analyze the overall F value of the model and the corresponding p-value:

• Overall F-Value:  47.9952
• P-value:  0.000

Since this p-value is less than .05, we can reject the null hypothesis. In other words, there is a statistically significant relationship between hours studied and exam score received.

Example 2: Multiple Linear Regression

Suppose a professor would like to use the number of hours studied and the number of prep exams taken to predict the exam score that students will receive in his class. He collects data for 20 students and fits a multiple linear regression model.

The fitted multiple linear regression model is:

Exam Score = 67.67 + 5.56*(hours studied) – 0.60*(prep exams taken)

To determine if there is a jointly statistically significant relationship between the two predictor variables and the response variable, we need to analyze the overall F value of the model and the corresponding p-value:

• Overall F-Value:  23.46
• P-value:  0.00

Since this p-value is less than .05, we can reject the null hypothesis. In other words, hours studied and prep exams taken have a jointly statistically significant relationship with exam score.

Note: Although the p-value for prep exams taken (p = 0.52) is not significant, prep exams combined with hours studied has a significant relationship with exam score.

Additional Resources

Understanding the F-Test of Overall Significance in Regression How to Read and Interpret a Regression Table How to Report Regression Results How to Perform Simple Linear Regression in Excel How to Perform Multiple Linear Regression in Excel

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Rejecting the Null Hypothesis Using Confidence Intervals

After a discussion on the two primary methods of statistical inference, viz. hypothesis tests and confidence intervals, it is shown that these two methods are actually equivalent.

In an introductory statistics class, there are three main topics that are taught: descriptive statistics and data visualizations, probability and sampling distributions, and statistical inference. Within statistical inference, there are two key methods of statistical inference that are taught, viz. confidence intervals and hypothesis testing . While these two methods are always taught when learning data science and related fields, it is rare that the relationship between these two methods is properly elucidated.

In this article, we’ll begin by defining and describing each method of statistical inference in turn and along the way, state what statistical inference is, and perhaps more importantly, what it isn’t. Then we’ll describe the relationship between the two. While it is typically the case that confidence intervals are taught before hypothesis testing when learning statistics, we’ll begin with the latter since it will allow us to define statistical significance.

Hypothesis Tests

The purpose of a hypothesis test is to answer whether random chance might be responsible for an observed effect. Hypothesis tests use sample statistics to test a hypothesis about population parameters. The null hypothesis, H 0 , is a statement that represents the assumed status quo regarding a variable or variables and it is always about a population characteristic. Some of the ways the null hypothesis is typically glossed are: the population variable is equal to a particular value or there is no difference between the population variables . For example:

• H 0 : μ = 61 in (The mean height of the population of American men is 69 inches)
• H 0 : p 1 -p 2 = 0 (The difference in the population proportions of women who prefer football over baseball and the population proportion of men who prefer football over baseball is 0.)

Note that the null hypothesis always has the equal sign.

The alternative hypothesis, denoted either H 1 or H a , is the statement that is opposed to the null hypothesis (e.g., the population variable is not equal to a particular value  or there is a difference between the population variables ):

• H 1 : μ > 61 im (The mean height of the population of American men is greater than 69 inches.)
• H 1 : p 1 -p 2 ≠ 0 (The difference in the population proportions of women who prefer football over baseball and the population proportion of men who prefer football over baseball is not 0.)

The alternative hypothesis is typically the claim that the researcher hopes to show and it always contains the strict inequality symbols (‘<’ left-sided or left-tailed, ‘≠’ two-sided or two-tailed, and ‘>’ right-sided or right-tailed).

When carrying out a test of H 0 vs. H 1 , the null hypothesis H 0 will be rejected in favor of the alternative hypothesis only if the sample provides convincing evidence that H 0 is false. As such, a statistical hypothesis test is only capable of demonstrating strong support for the alternative hypothesis by rejecting the null hypothesis.

When the null hypothesis is not rejected, it does not mean that there is strong support for the null hypothesis (since it was assumed to be true); rather, only that there is not convincing evidence against the null hypothesis. As such, we never use the phrase “accept the null hypothesis.”

In the classical method of performing hypothesis testing, one would have to find what is called the test statistic and use a table to find the corresponding probability. Happily, due to the advancement of technology, one can use Python (as is done in the Flatiron’s Data Science Bootcamp ) and get the required value directly using a Python library like stats models . This is the p-value , which is short for the probability value.

The p-value is a measure of inconsistency between the hypothesized value for a population characteristic and the observed sample. The p -value is the probability, under the assumption the null hypothesis is true, of obtaining a test statistic value that is a measure of inconsistency between the null hypothesis and the data. If the p -value is less than or equal to the probability of the Type I error, then we can reject the null hypothesis and we have sufficient evidence to support the alternative hypothesis.

Typically the probability of a Type I error ɑ, more commonly known as the level of significance , is set to be 0.05, but it is often prudent to have it set to values less than that such as 0.01 or 0.001. Thus, if p -value ≤ ɑ, then we reject the null hypothesis and we interpret this as saying there is a statistically significant difference between the sample and the population. So if the p -value=0.03 ≤ 0.05 = ɑ, then we would reject the null hypothesis and so have statistical significance, whereas if p -value=0.08 ≥ 0.05 = ɑ, then we would fail to reject the null hypothesis and there would not be statistical significance.

Confidence Intervals

The other primary form of statistical inference are confidence intervals. While hypothesis tests are concerned with testing a claim, the purpose of a confidence interval is to estimate an unknown population characteristic. A confidence interval is an interval of plausible values for a population characteristic. They are constructed so that we have a chosen level of confidence that the actual value of the population characteristic will be between the upper and lower endpoints of the open interval.

The structure of an individual confidence interval is the sample estimate of the variable of interest margin of error. The margin of error is the product of a multiplier value and the standard error, s.e., which is based on the standard deviation and the sample size. The multiplier is where the probability, of level of confidence, is introduced into the formula.

The confidence level is the success rate of the method used to construct a confidence interval. A confidence interval estimating the proportion of American men who state they are an avid fan of the NFL could be (0.40, 0.60) with a 95% level of confidence. The level of confidence is not the probability that that population characteristic is in the confidence interval, but rather refers to the method that is used to construct the confidence interval.

For example, a 95% confidence interval would be interpreted as if one constructed 100 confidence intervals, then 95 of them would contain the true population characteristic. 

Errors and Power

A Type I error, or a false positive, is the error of finding a difference that is not there, so it is the probability of incorrectly rejecting a true null hypothesis is ɑ, where ɑ is the level of significance. It follows that the probability of correctly failing to reject a true null hypothesis is the complement of it, viz. 1 – ɑ. For a particular hypothesis test, if ɑ = 0.05, then its complement would be 0.95 or 95%.

While we are not going to expand on these ideas, we note the following two related probabilities. A Type II error, or false negative, is the probability of failing to reject a false null hypothesis where the probability of a type II error is β and the power is the probability of correctly rejecting a false null hypothesis where power = 1 – β. In common statistical practice, one typically only speaks of the level of significance and the power.

The following table summarizes these ideas , where the column headers refer to what is actually the case, but is unknown. (If the truth or falsity of the null value was truly known, we wouldn’t have to do statistics.)

Hypothesis Tests and Confidence Intervals

Since hypothesis tests and confidence intervals are both methods of statistical inference, then it is reasonable to wonder if they are equivalent in some way. The answer is yes, which means that we can perform hypothesis testing using confidence intervals.

Returning to the example where we have an estimate of the proportion of American men that are avid fans of the NFL, we had (0.40, 0.60) at a 95% confidence level. As a hypothesis test, we could have the alternative hypothesis as H 1 ≠ 0.51. Since the null value of 0.51 lies within the confidence interval, then we would fail to reject the null hypothesis at ɑ = 0.05.

On the other hand, if H 1 ≠ 0.61, then since 0.61 is not in the confidence interval we can reject the null hypothesis at ɑ = 0.05. Note that the confidence level of 95% and the level of significance at ɑ = 0.05 = 5%  are complements, which is the “H o is True” column in the above table.

In general, one can reject the null hypothesis given a null value and a confidence interval for a two-sided test if the null value is not in the confidence interval where the confidence level and level of significance are complements. For one-sided tests, one can still perform a hypothesis test with the confidence level and null value. Not only is there an added layer of complexity for this equivalence, it is the best practice to perform two-sided hypothesis tests since one is not prejudicing the direction of the alternative.

In this discussion of hypothesis testing and confidence intervals, we not only understand when these two methods of statistical inference can be equivalent, but now have a deeper understanding of statistical significance itself and therefore, statistical inference.

Learn More About Data Science at Flatiron

The curriculum in our Data Science Bootcamp incorporates the latest technologies, including artificial intelligence (AI) tools. Download the syllabus to see what you can learn, or book a 10-minute call with Admissions to learn about full-time and part-time attendance opportunities.

Disclaimer: The information in this blog is current as of February 28, 2024. Current policies, offerings, procedures, and programs may differ.

About Brendan Patrick Purdy

Brendan is the senior curriculum developer for data science at the Flatiron School. He holds degrees in mathematics, data science, and philosophy, and enjoys modeling neural networks with the Python library TensorFlow.

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The outcome of any hypothesis testing leads to rejecting or not rejecting the null hypothesis. This decision is taken based on the analysis of the data, an appropriate test statistic, an appropriate confidence level, the critical values, and P -values. However, when the evidence suggests that the null hypothesis cannot be rejected, is it right to say, 'Accept' the null hypothesis?

There are two ways to indicate that the null hypothesis is not rejected. 'Accept' the null hypothesis and 'fail to reject' the null hypothesis. Superficially, both these phrases mean the same, but in statistics, the meanings are somewhat different. The phrase 'accept the null hypothesis' implies that the null hypothesis is by nature true, and it is proved. But a hypothesis test simply provides information that there is no sufficient evidence in support of the alternative hypothesis, and therefore the null hypothesis cannot be rejected. The null hypothesis cannot be proven, although the hypothesis test begins with an assumption that the hypothesis is true, and the final result indicates the failure of the rejection of the null hypothesis. Thus, it is always advisable to state 'fail to reject the null hypothesis' instead of 'accept the null hypothesis.'

'Accepting' a hypothesis may also imply that the given hypothesis is now proven, so there is no need to study it further. Nevertheless, that is never the case, as newer scientific evidence often challenges the existing studies. Discovery of viruses and fossils, rediscovery of presumed extinct species, criminal trials, and novel drug tests follow the same principles of testing hypotheses. In those cases, 'accepting' a hypothesis may lead to severe consequences.

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