referee assignments week 15

NFL Referee Assignments Week 15: Refs Assigned for Sunday and Monday Games

P layers, coaches, fans, and the media have all spent a lot of time discussing the officiating throughout the season. In the last two weeks, the Kansas City Chiefs have been at the center of discussion about penalties that were called or not called.

In Week 14, there appeared to be a missed pass interference call at the end of the Chiefs’ loss to the Green Bay Packers. In last week’s loss to the Buffalo Bills, Patrick Mahomes was frustrated with an offensive offside call on Kadarius Toney that nullified a go-ahead touchdown.

Mahomes and Chiefs head coach Andy Reid were critical of the call in the postgame news conference, but each acknowledged the call was correct later in the week. Commissioner Roger Goodell discussed the call this week: “I think almost everybody has acknowledged that the officials are absolutely correct. That’s their job to call it a foul.”

NFL Referee Assignments for Week 15

All times Eastern and game day Sunday unless stated otherwise. All penalty stat information is courtesy of NFLPenalties.com .

Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers | 1:00 p.m.

Chicago Bears at Cleveland Browns | 1:00 p.m.

Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots| 1:00 p.m.

Shawn Hochuli

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Green Bay Packers | 1:00 p.m.

New York Jets at Miami Dolphins | 1:00 p.m.

Brad Rogers

New York Giants at New Orleans Saints | 1:00 p.m.

Carl Cheffers

Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans | 1:00 p.m.

Clete Blakeman

San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals | 4:05 p.m.

Scott Novak

Washington Commanders at Los Angeles Rams | 4:05 p.m.

Dallas Cowboys at Buffalo Bills| 4:25 p.m.

Craig Wrolstad

Baltimore Ravens at Jacksonville Jaguars | 8:20 p.m.

Shawn Smith

Philadelphia Eagles at Seattle Seahawks | 8:15 p.m. (Monday)

Clay Martin

This season, offensive offside has been called 13 times, with two additional penalties that were declined. The Eagles and Packers have been called twice for offensive offside, which is the most in the NFL. The penalty was called three times last season and one time in 2021, but that was declined.

MORE: NFL Prime-Time Games 2023

There could be a lot of flags in the Cowboys-Bills game, with two of the most penalized teams in the league. Dallas leads the league with 97 penalties, and Buffalo is fifth with 88 called on them. Craig Wrolstad and his crew have called over 11 penalties per game, which is the fifth-lowest in the league.

Each season, officials are assigned to referees from the NFL’s officiating roster . You can see the full crews for the 2023 season in our handy guide.

Want to predict the rest of the 2023 season with our FREE NFL Playoff Predictor ? Looking for the most up-to-date NFL standings ? What about a breakdown of team depth charts or the NFL schedule ? Pro Football Network has you covered with that and more! 

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NFL officiating crews for Week 15 games and which teams could benefit the most

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NFL officiating crews often play a large part in determining which teams win or lose each week. As on-the-field arbiters of the league’s rulebook, officials have the power to destroy an offense’s momentum, or hurt a defense’s chance of preventing a team from advancing within range of a game-winning field-goal attempt. All with the toss of a yellow flag.

There are 17 NFL officiating crews, and they are assigned to games each week, depending on how many games are played. With no more bye weeks, Week 15 will feature 16 games; Alex Kemp’s crew has the week off. In the Broncos-Lions game Saturday night, John Hussey will be officiating his 350th NFL game.

Below are Week 15 assignments for the NFL officiating crews, along with a detailed look at which teams might be helped or hurt by who will be calling penalties at their game this week.

Los Angeles Chargers (5-8) at Las Vegas Raiders (5-8), 8:15 p.m. ET

Head official: Ron Torbert

Torbert’s crew: 2023 stats

• Games officiated: 13
• Penalties: 13.5 called/game (1st out of 17)
• Home team win %: 76.9 (21.6 above norm)
• % of penalties called on home team: 50.9 (7th out of 17)
• Most common penalty called: False start (3.9 calls/game)
• Most penalized position group: Offensive line (5.0 calls/game)

Who benefits the most?

Las Vegas Raiders . While Torbert’s crew throws more flags than any crew in the league, the home team ends up winning most of the time, and the Raiders are the least penalized team in the league. Torbert’s crew is the league leader in false start calls.

Minnesota Vikings (7-6) at Cincinnati Bengals (7-6), 1 p.m. ET

Head official: Bill Vinovich

Vinovich’s crew: 2023 stats

• Games officiated: 12
• Penalties: 11.9 called/game (out of 17)
• Home team win %: 41.7 (13.62 below norm)
• % of penalties called on home team: 53.1 (3rd out of 17)
• Most common penalty called: False start (2.4 calls/game)
• Most penalized position group: Offensive line (3.4 calls/game)

Cincinnati Bengals . Vinovich’s crew appears to favor the home team in terms of the flags thrown, and the Vikings’ offensive line in particular will be susceptible on the road.

Pittsburgh Steelers (7-6) at Indianapolis Colts (7-6), 4:30 p.m. ET

Head official: Adrian Hill

Hill’s crew: 2023 stats

• Penalties: 12.33 called/game (tied 8th out of 17)
• Home team win %: 58.33 (3.04 above norm)
• % of penalties called on home team: 42.6 (17th out of 17)
• Most common penalty called: False start (2.58 calls/game)
• Most penalized position group: Offensive line (3.33 calls/game)

Indianapolis Colts . In terms of penalties, Hill’s crew is the most home-friendly in the league, even if the home win percentage doesn’t quite show it.

Denver Broncos (7-6) at Detroit Lions (9-4), 8:15 p.m. ET

Head official: John Hussey

Hussey’s crew: 2023 stats

• Penalties: 13.92 called/game (1st out of 17)
• Home team win %: 75.0 (19.71 above norm)
• % of penalties called on home team: 44.9 (15th out of 17)
• Most common penalty called: False start (3.83 calls/game)
• Most penalized position group: Defensive back (2.58 calls/game)

Detroit Lions . Hussey’s crew tosses the most flags of all the NFL officiating crews and skews toward the home team more than most. The Lions, however, have been dinged 10 times for defensive pass interference, so that bears watching.

Atlanta Falcons (6-7) at Carolina Panthers (1-12), 1 p.m. ET

Head official: Land Clark

Clark’s crew: 2023 stats

• Penalties: 13.0 called/game (3rd out of 17)
• Home team win %: 25.0 (30.29 below norm)
• % of penalties called on home team: 45.3 (13th out of 17)
• Most common penalty called: Offensive holding (2.92 calls/game)
• Most penalized position group: Defensive back (4.33 calls/game)

Atlanta Falcons . Clark’s crew throws the third-most flags overall among NFL officiating crews, ranks third in offensive holding calls, and is slightly friendlier toward road teams.

Chicago Bears (5-8) at Cleveland Browns (8-5), 1 p.m. ET

Head official: Brad Allen

Allen’s crew: 2023 stats

• Games officiated: 11
• Penalties: 10.83 called/game (16th out of 17)
• Home team win %: 45.45 (9.84 below norm)
• % of penalties called on home team: 46.2 (12th out of 17)
• Most common penalty called: Offensive holding (2.3 calls/game)
• Most penalized position group: Defensive back (3.2 calls/game)

Cleveland Browns . This is nearly a push, but Allen’s crew is kinder to home teams than most of the NFL officiating crews, and the Bears’ offensive line is among the most penalized position groups in the league.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-7) at Green Bay Packers (6-7), 1 p.m. ET

Head official: Tra Blake

Blake’s crew: 2023 stats

• Penalties: 12.75 called/game (5th out of 17)
• Home team win %: 50.0 (5.29 below norm)
• % of penalties called on home team: 51.0 (6th out of 17)
• Most common penalty called: False start (2.7 calls/game)
• Most penalized position group: Offensive line (4.0 calls/game)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers . None of the NFL officiating crews throws more defensive pass interference calls than Blake’s does, making the Packers more vulnerable, since their DBs are the team’s most penalized group.

Houston Texans (7-6) at Tennessee Titans (5-8), 1 p.m. ET

Head official: Clete Blakeman

Blakeman’s crew: 2023 stats

• Penalties: 11.3 called/game (12th out of 17)
• Home team win %: 75.0 (19.7 above norm)
• % of penalties called on home team: 47.4 (11th out of 17)
• Most common penalty called: False start (2.0 calls/game)

Tennessee Titans . The Texans lead the league in flags for defensive pass interference calls, and Blakeman’s crew ranks third in that category among the NFL officiating crews.

New York Jets (5-8) at Miami Dolphins (9-4), 1 p.m. ET

Head official: Brad Rogers

Rogers’ crew: 2023 stats

• Penalties: 12.6 called/game (6th out of 17)
• % of penalties called on home team: 48.8 (9th out of 17)
• Most common penalty called: Offensive holding (3.2 calls/game)
• Most penalized position group: Offensive line (3.5 calls/game)

Miami Dolphins . Just looking at the home-road splits shows this to be a favorable matchup for the Dolphins, even though Rogers’ crew ranks first among the NFL officiating crews in terms of offensive holding calls.

Kansas City Chiefs (8-5) at New England Patriots (3-10), 1 p.m. ET

Head official: Shawn Hochuli

Hochuli’s crew: 2023 stats

• Penalties: 12.3 called/game (9th out of 17)
• Home team win %: 66.7 (11.38 above norm)
• % of penalties called on home team: 44.6 (15th out of 17)
• Most common penalty called: Offensive holding (2.6 calls/game)

New England Patriots. The Patriots might get some officiating help due to Hochuli’s crew being more home-friendly and the Chiefs ranking No. 1 in offensive holding calls.

New York Giants (5-8) at New Orleans Saints (6-7), 1 p.m. ET

Head official: Carl Cheffers

Cheffers’ crew: 2023 stats

• Penalties: 11.6 called/game (11th out of 17)
• Home team win %: 50.0 (5.3 below norm)
• % of penalties called on home team: 49.6 (8th out of 17)
• Most common penalty called: False start (2.3 calls/game)
• Most penalized position group: Offensive line (2.8 calls/game)

New Orleans Saints . Cheffers’ crew, which made the offsides call against the Chiefs’ Kadarius Toney last Sunday, might be the most neutral among the 17 NFL officiating crews. But its tendency to ding offensive lines favors the Saints, who tend to get flagged much less at home anyway.

Washington Commanders (4-9) at Los Angeles Rams (6-7), 4:05 p.m. ET

Head official: Alan Eck

Eck’s crew: 2023 stats

• Penalties: 11.0 called/game (15th out of 17)
• % of penalties called on home team: 48.5 (10th out of 17)
• Most common penalty called: False start (1.8 calls/game)

Los Angeles Rams . Almost a push. Along with skewing toward the home team, Eck’s crew throws the second-least number of flags for defensive pass interference and is among the most defensive-friendly overall of the 17 NFL officiating crews.

San Francisco 49ers (10-3) at Arizona Cardinals (3-10), 4:05 p.m. ET

Head official: Scott Novak

Novak’s crew: 2023 stats

• Penalties: 11.0 called/game (14th out of 17)
• Home team win %: 61.5 (6.2 above norm)
• % of penalties called on home team: 51.0 (5th out of 17)
• Most penalized position group: Offensive line (3.2 calls/game)

San Francisco 49ers . The Cardinals draw the third-most offensive holding calls, and that’s what Novak’s crew calls more often than most.

Dallas Cowboys (10-3) at Buffalo Bills (7-6), 4:25 p.m. ET

Head official: Craig Wrolstad

Wrolstad’s crew: 2023 stats

• Penalties: 11.1 called/game (13th out of 17)
• % of penalties called on home team: 54.1 (2nd out of 17)
• Most common penalty called: Offensive holding (2.1 calls/game)
• Most penalized position group: Defensive back (2.9 calls/game)

Buffalo Bills . The Cowboys are the most penalized team in the league, so they will rarely gain an advantage from the officiating. It could be a long day for Dallas’ defensive backs.

Baltimore Ravens (10-3) at Jacksonville Jaguars (8-5), 8:20 p.m. ET

Head official: Shawn Smith

Smith’s crew: 2023 stats

• Penalties: 12.4 called/game (7th out of 17)
• Home team win %: 16.7 (38.6 below norm)
• % of penalties called on home team: 53.0 (4th out of 17)
• Most common penalty called: Offensive holding & false start (1.8 calls/game)
• Most penalized position group: Offensive line (3.3 calls/game)

Baltimore Ravens . Of all the NFL officiating crews, Smith’s crew heavily skews toward the road team, and the Jaguars rank fourth in false start calls.

Philadelphia Eagles (10-3) at Seattle Seahawks (6-7), 8:15 p.m. ET

Head official: Clay Martin

Martin’s crew: 2023 stats

• Penalties: 10.6 called/game (17th out of 17)
• Home team win %: 41.7 (13.7 below norm)
• % of penalties called on home team: 55.1 (1st out of 17)
• Most common penalty called: Offensive holding (2.8 calls/game)
• Most penalized position group: Offensive line (3.1 calls/game)

Philadelphia Eagles . The Seahawks rank second in terms of penalties called, and Martin’s crew likes to throw flags at offensive linemen, especially for offensive holding.

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Nfl referee home team winning percentages for week 15, share this article.

COVID-19 reared its crowned head in the midst of Week 15 and postponed three weekend games to the early part of next week.

Officiating crews similarly had to adapt to the changes.

The following is a list of each NFL referee’s home team winning percentage heading into Week 15 of the 2021 season. The assignments are according to Football Zebras while the stats are proprietary to this author. Given the fluid situation with game days, officiating crews are subject to change.

John Hussey’s crew has Sunday Night Football between the New Orleans Saints and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Scott Novak as Monday night between the Minnesota Vikings and Chicago Bears.

The Tuesday officiating crews are Tony Corrente (Washington at Philadelphia) and Shawn Hochuli (Seattle at LA Rams).

Bill Vinovich’s crew was fortunate enough to have the hectic week off.

1. John Hussey: .750

Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

Assignment: New Orleans at Tampa Bay

Hussey is tied for the lowest percentage of home teams with fewer penalties at .250.

Coaches are 2/6 overturning Hussey’s calls. The booth is a perfect 5/5.

2. Carl Cheffers: .643

Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Assignment: New England at Indianapolis

Cheffers has the third-lowest percentage of home teams with fewer penalties at .286.

Coaches are 2/3 challenging Hussey. The booth is 4/5.

3. Land Clark: .625

Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Assignment: Arizona at Detroit

Clark is tied for the fourth-highest percentage of home teams with fewer penalties at .583.

Coaches are 2/4 challenging Clark. The booth is 6/9 overturning Clark.

T-4. Brad Allen: .583

Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports

Assignment: Green Bay at Baltimore

Allen is tied for the league lead in percentage of home team with fewer penalties at .750.

Coaches are 4/8 challenging Allen. The booth is 7/8.

T-4. Brad Rogers: .583

Assignment: Tennessee at Pittsburgh

Rogers has the fourth-lowest percentage of home teams with fewer penalties at .308.

Coaches are 3/8 challenging Rogers. The booth has a 5/7 overturn rate.

T-4. Ron Torbert: .583

Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

Assignment: NY Jets at Miami

Torbert has the third-highest percentage of home teams with fewer penalties at .692.

Coaches are 2/9 challenging Torbert. The booth is 6/7.

T-4. Bill Vinovich: .583

Assignment: off week

Vinovich is tied for the fourth-highest percentage of home teams with fewer penalties at .583.

Coaches are 2/9 challenging Vinovich. The booth is 3/6.

8. Clete Blakeman: .546

Scott R. Galvin-USA TODAY Sports

Assignment: Carolina at Buffalo

Blakeman has the 12th-lowest percentage of home teams with fewer penalties at .455.

Coaches are 1/3 challenging Blakeman. The booth is 4/6.

T-9. Adrian Hill: .500

Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

Assignment: Cincinnati at Denver

Hill is tied for the fourth-highest percentage of home teams with fewer penalties at .583.

Coaches are 5/7. The booth is 3/7.

T-9. Shawn Smith: .500

(Photo by Jason Miller/Getty Images)

Assignment: Kansas City at LA Chargers

Smith is tied for the lowest percentage of home teams with fewer penalties at .250.

Coaches are 3/7 when challenging Smith. The booth is 3/5 overturning Smith.

T-9. Craig Wrolstad: .500

Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports

Assignment: Las Vegas at Cleveland (Monday afternoon)

Wrolstad is tied for the ninth-highest percentage of home teams with fewer penalties at .500.

Coaches are 4/7 challenging Wrolstad. The booth is 6/8.

T-12. Clay Martin: .417

Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports

Assignment: Atlanta at San Francisco

Martin has the fifth-lowest percentage of home teams with fewer penalties at .417.

Coaches are 4/5 challenging Martin. The booth is 4/6.

T-12. Scott Novak: .417

Assignment: Minnesota at Chicago

Novak is tied for the fourth-highest percentage of home teams with fewer penalties at .583.

Coaches are 3/5 challenging Novak. The booth is 5/9.

T-12. Tony Corrente: .417

Assignment: Washington at Philadelphia (Tuesday)

Corrente is tied for the fourth-highest percentage of home teams with fewer penalties at .583.

Coaches have had no shot with Corrente at 0/6. The booth meanwhile is a perfect 2/2.

T-12. Jerome Boger: .417

Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Assignment: Dallas at NY Giants

Boger is tied for the ninth-highest percentage of home teams with fewer penalties at .500.

Coaches are 1/4 challenging Boger. The booth is 5/6.

T-12. Alex Kemp: .417

Chuck Cook-USA TODAY Sports

Assignment: Houston at Jacksonville

Kemp is tied for the league lead in percentage of home team with fewer penalties at .750.

Coaches are a perfect 5/5 challenging Kemp. However, the booth is 3/7.

17. Shawn Hochuli: .167

Assignment: Seattle at LA Rams (Tuesday)

Hochuli is tied for the ninth-highest percentage of home teams with fewer penalties at .500.

Coaches are 1/6 challenging Hochuli. The booth has a 2/4 success rate.

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NCAA and NFL Referee news

Thursday, December 16

• Chiefs at Chargers —  Shawn Smith

Saturday, December 18

• Raiders at Browns —  Craig Wrolstad
• Patriots at Colts —  Carl Cheffers

Sunday, December 19

• Cowboys at Giants  —  Jerome Boger
• Jets at Dolphins  —  Ron Torbert
• Washington at Eagles  —  Tony Corrente
• Panthers at Bills  —  Clete Blakeman
• Texans at Jaguars  —  Alex Kemp
• Titans at Steelers  —  Brad Rogers
• Cardinals at Lions  —  Land Clark
• Bengals at Broncos  —  Adrian Hill
• Falcons at 49ers  —  Clay Martin
• Packers at Ravens  —  Brad Allen
• Seahawks at Rams  —  Shawn Hochuli
• Saints at Buccaneers —  John Hussey

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Week 15 assignments, 2021

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NFL Week 15 Officiating Angles: Finding Edges in Broncos-Lions, Steelers-Colts and 49ers-Cardinals

We went 1-2 last week, bringing this column's record to 25-17 (+6.3 units) through 14 weeks. Byes are over and we've got a full slate to choose from. That's just the way we like it.

Joe Gibbs (not the Hall of Fame coach, the NFL referee expert who tweets @NFLrefstats1) is collaborating with SportsLine this season to provide weekly, referee-based betting angles. He analyzes the NFL ref assignments from the moment they're released each Tuesday.

Before you make any Week 15  NFL picks  or NFL parlays, you need to see what Gibbs and SportsLine senior analyst Larry Hartstein have to say about the officiating crews' tendencies.

We can tell you Hartstein and Gibbs are betting Detroit -4 (MGM) over visiting Denver on Saturday, in part due to referee John Hussey drawing the assignment.

Home teams are 9-3 straight up and 10-2 against the spread with Hussey this season, making him an incredible 85-41 SU and 75-47-4 ATS (62%) since 2016. That's the best home field advantage for any ref over that span.

Detroit is very disciplined, having been called for the second-fewest presnap penalties. 

Hartstein also is sharing key officiating angles in Steelers-Colts and 49ers-Cardinals. You need to see this critical referee data before locking in your picks!

So which side of Steelers-Colts has the edge? And what other officiating edges can be found on the Week 15 slate ? ...  Join SportsLine right now to see Larry Hartstein's Week 15 NFL officiating trends, all from the expert who went 53-34-3 in the SuperContest last year !

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Veteran referee carl cheffers assigned to week 15 saints-giants game, share this article.

Veteran referee Carl Cheffers has been assigned to Week 15’s game between the New Orleans Saints and New York Giants, which should be good news for Saints fans. The black and gold have more wins with Cheffers on the field than any other referee, having gone 14-4 since 2008.

That’s not to say Cheffers is playing favorites; the infractions he and his crew look for may just happen to be things the Saints do a good job avoiding. Or, more likely, most of his games with New Orleans fell during the winningest era in franchise history with Drew Brees and Sean Payton calling the shots.

At any rate: this year, Cheffers’ crew is averaging the seventh-fewest penalty flags per game (11.5) with a near-even split between home teams and visitors. They’ve fouled teams more often for false starts (28 of them) and offensive holding (24) than anything else, but the handsy Saints secondary must watch out — Cheffers’ crew has thrown 11 penalty flags for defensive pass interference in as many games.

New York averages just 5.4 penalties for 44.6 yards per game each week, which ranks in the bottom-10 in the league in both areas. New Orleans is averaging 6.1 fouls (which is 18th) and 55.5 yards per game (9th-most, troublingly), largely due to those defensive pass interference infractions. No team averages more yards lost per game to DPI penalties than the Saints (16.8). They’ll need to be careful in coverage and keep it clean.

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NFL Referee Assignment for Super Bowl 58 & Impact on NFL Betting

We tend to only focus on NFL referees after a controversial decision or bad no-call. Yet each head NFL referee and his respective crew interprets the game differently.

Gaining insight into the way a game will be officiated can have immense value in the betting market.

A referee who calls more penalties for defensive holding and roughing the passer has a far different impact on game flow than a ref who focuses more on offensive holding and false starts.

Referee style one week may hide a team’s weakness (defensive backs), but a different official who leans heavily on calling pass interference will compound that weakness the next week.

Same team. Different outcomes.

Throughout this 2023 NFL season, we’ll help to identify important trends and tendencies by different NFL referees to help you gain an edge when placing a bet .

Sharp Football Analysis has every angle of Chiefs vs. 49ers covered in our Super Bowl 58 Hub .

NFL Referee Assignment for Super Bowl 58

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Bill Vinovich’s Impact on Chiefs vs. 49ers in Super Bowl 58

The Chiefs and 49ers meet in Super Bowl 58. The game will officiated by Bill Vinovich, his third Super Bowl as a head referee.

Bill Vnovich was in charge of proceedings in the Chiefs’ 31-20 victory over the 49ers in Super Bowl 54 to conclude the 2019 NFL season. This game marks the first time the same referee has officiated a Super Bowl rematch.

Vinovich is the epitome of a “let ‘em play” referee, especially in postseason games.

We have detailed the decline in offensive holding penalties throughout these playoffs versus regular season averages. Expect that to continue in Super Bowl 58.

San Francisco 49ers defensive end Nick Bosa brought the issue to the media’s and hopefully the officiating crew’s attention in the lead-up to the big game.

The Chiefs have been the number one beneficiary of the reduction in offensive holding in the playoffs. It would be an ideal scenario for the 49ers to see more offensive holding calls in Super Bowl 58, but that is unlikely.

The all-star officiating crew is a topic of conversation when assessing the Super Bowl. How can we preview a game if the referee in charge doesn’t have the entirety of his regular season crew on the field?

It’s a valid point, and we did an in-depth look at this last week.

If there is one surefire playoff trend, regardless of the crew makeup and the head referee, it’s the emphasis on reducing overall penalties.

Look for the Vinovich-led crew in Super Bowl 58 to follow that script.

Now, let’s assess the strengths and weaknesses of the teams in the Super Bowl from a penalty perspective and how the officiating of the Bill Vinovich-led crew will potentially impact these games

Penalty Tendencies:

• Since Bill Vinovich’s first Super Bowl as a head referee between the Patriots and Seahawks in 2015, his games are averaging 9.5 penalties for 78.4 yards. Keep these numbers in mind for any penalty props that may be available for this Super Bowl
• The Chiefs overall offense and offensive line issues were well-documented throughout the 2023 season. The penalty issues for the Kansas City offense have seen a sharp decline in their playoff run
• The Chiefs averaged 5.3 penalties per game in the 2023 regular season, with 63% committed by their offense. That averages out to around 3.5 offensive penalties per game
• The Chiefs are averaging just 2.6 penalties per game on their current playoff run, with the offense responsible for 70% of penalties. That amounts to around 1.8 offensive penalties per game, a significant drop from the regular season average. Since the drop in offensive penalties is primarily via offensive holding, it’s a huge boon to a Kansas City offense that struggled at times in 2023
• The decline in offensive holding is standard operating procedure every season in the playoffs. The NFL wants an aesthetically pleasing product in highly viewed postseason games. It just so happens Kansas City is the biggest beneficiary of this in 2023
• The 49ers offense is responsible for just 46% of the team’s overall penalties in 2023, with their offensive line responsible for just 24% of the team’s overall penalties
• The 49ers were a below-average penalized team for offensive holding in 2023
• In their Super Bowl 54 matchup in 2020, there was one offensive holding penalty called by Vinovich’s crew. More notable in that game were the non-calls, particularly in situations involving the aforementioned Nick Bosa 
• The 49ers and Chiefs defensive units are the two least impactful at generating offensive holding penalties on the opposing offenses in 2023, ranking 31st and 32nd respectively. In their five combined playoff games in the 2023-24 playoffs, these defenses have generated one accepted offensive holding penalty and have had one additional call declined
• Vinovich ranks second for false start penalties per game
• The 49ers and Chiefs share a common trait in penalties surrendered via passing plays. Defensive pass interference makes up the bulk of penalties surrendered in this category, with 61% of the Chiefs’ infractions and 58% of the 49ers’
• The back judge in Super Bowl 58 is from the Land Clark crew. One of the more controversial no-calls in 2023 came in Chiefs at Vikings in Week 5. It was a late-game defensive pass interference by L’Jarius Sneed on Vikings wide receiver Jordan Addison . The flag was thrown by the side judge but picked up after a discussion with the back judge and head referee Land Clark.
• The 49ers and Chiefs offenses are top five beneficiaries of defensive holding infractions
• The Vinovich-led crew has members from the Clark, Shawn Hochuli, and Tra Blake crews. All three were above average calling defensive holding.
• Vinovich is co-ranked number one for illegal use of hands penalties and second overall for illegal block in the back penalties in 2023. These are two categories the Chiefs are highly penalized in versus league average. These infractions are more likely to get called in Super Bowl 58 with the Vinovich and Hochuli crews heavily represented in this game
• No referee has called fewer roughing the passer penalties than Vinovich since the start of the 2018 NFL season, averaging one approximately every seventh game officiated. This is far fewer than other referees over that same stretch. Across the board, the average is one roughing the passer penalty approximately every 2.5 games officiated. Keep these roughing the passer numbers in mind for penalty-specific prop bets in Super Bowl 58
• In playoff games, Vinovich-led crews have called just one roughing the passer penalty in 14 contests officiated since the 2012 season. The inclusion of two Hochuli crew members is the only cause for concern about roughing the passer, as they led the NFL in this category. However, at the end of the day, Vinovich runs this outfit and his numbers override everything else.
• Conversely, Vinovich-led crews in those 14 playoff games have called 13 unnecessary roughness penalties
• Pre-snap penalties are to be avoided at all costs. The Chiefs were one of the best in the NFL this season, ranking 30th overall. It’s worth noting, four of the five teams with the fewest pre-snap penalties in 2023 made the playoffs

Bottom Line:

• Vinovich-led crews are 60-39-2 (60%) to the under since the start of the 2018 NFL season, including 10-7 (60%) to the under in 2023
• In playoff games dating back to 2012, Vinovich is 9-8 to the under. The Chiefs’ 31-20 victory in Super Bowl 54 stayed under the closing total of 52.5 points. We are dealing with a far lower number in this contest
• A little-mentioned factor in the lead-up to this game is the new grass field surface at Allegiant Stadium. Last year’s surface in Arizona was a debacle, and it favored the offenses. From an in-game wagering perspective, the focus on offensive holding, or the probable lack thereof, is issue No. 1. The second piece to the puzzle is field conditions. Those two factors alone will impact the total as much as anything else

If the 49ers bring their “A” game, they can win Super Bowl 58. At their best, San Francisco looked near unbeatable in the 2023 season.

However, it’s been a while since we’ve seen that form, and frankly, they were fortunate to win their first two playoff games.

We thought the Ravens would be a tough out in the AFC Championship, but the moment proved to be too big for them.

The positive for the 49ers is that they have a loaded roster with high-IQ players who shouldn’t make the same discipline-related errors that contributed to the Ravens’ downfall. The team needs to play its best game from the get-go in Super Bowl 58.

Conversely, the Chiefs’ fast starts have had them largely control games during their playoff run. Its coaching staff and its core group of players provide them with an edge in this matchup. This is especially true at the quarterback position.

The bottom line is they won’t beat themselves, making the Kansas City Chiefs the play in this game and the winner of Super Bowl 58.

Bet 49ers vs. Chiefs Now!

Super Bowl 58 Referee Crew & Penalty Trend

Heading into the 2023 NFL playoffs, the three referees most likely to officiate the Super Bowl were Bill Vinovich, John Hussey, and Shawn Hochuli. It’s no surprise five of the seven Super Bowl officials are members are from these crews.

Two members apiece are from the Bill Vinovich and Shawn Hochuli crews.

The remaining three officials are from the John Hussey, Tra Blake, and Land Clark officiating crews.

These five crews represent 30% of all officiating crews in the NFL, which is a key number when detailing the following penalty categories.

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