hurricane aila case study

Bangladesh: life after cyclone Aila – in pictures

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Mon 23 Jan 2012 15.16 GMT First published on Mon 23 Jan 2012 15.16 GMT

Photograph: Richard Hanson/MAF

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Achieving Community Resilience: Case Study of Cyclone Aila Affected Coastal Bangladesh

This paper aimed to explore the causes of human casualty and property damage by cyclone Aila and associated storm surge in southwestern coastal Bangladesh as well as the mechanisms, which contribute towards the creation of resilient community in the aftermath of cyclones. This paper revealed that at risk people employed various coping and adaptive strategies with their level of exposure and abilities to keep themselves safe in the face of cyclones. Massive destruction occurred due to cyclone and associated storm surge that breached the earthen embankment as well as inundated agricultural land and households. However, early warning dissemination by the cyclone preparedness program volunteers significantly reduced unexpected human casualty. It is realized that climate change is not preventable, but it is possible to protect societies and economies from nature's vicissitudes to some extent by devising appropriate structural and non-structural measures such as providing better information, improved planning and more climate-resilient infrastructure. People from cyclone Aila affected area have been suffering due to livelihood damage and asset base that put community people into poverty trap even though disaster related deaths have been reduced significantly due to different types of structural and non-structural measures. However, people have resorted to different adaptation strategies to come out from the disaster situation and tried to make themselves resilient to disasters. The study clearly illustrates that hand in hand activities of members of the community is needed to develop their capacities to prevent, prepare for, cope with and respond to disasters.

Related Papers

Rukon Zaman , Ilan Kelman

Bangladesh is one of the poorest and most disaster-prone countries in the world. To address both problems simultaneously, sustainable livelihoods (SL) could be better connected with disaster risk reduction (DRR). For this purpose, one initiative implemented in Bangladesh is called the Vulnerability to Resilience (V2R) programme which ran from 2013 to 2016. This programme was primarily initiated and funded by the British Red Cross in a consortium with the Swedish Red Cross and the German Red Cross. This article presents the first evaluation of the V2R programme with three objectives. The first objective was to measure whether the selected communities have achieved community resilience characteristics as defined by the programme. The second objective was to conduct a cost-benefit analysis for the intervention. The third objective was to analyse V2R's impact on the communities in terms of DRR and SL. Community-based focus group discussions and household-based surveys were conducted before and after the intervention (2013–2016) in two coastal communities in Patuakhali district, Nowapara and Pashurbunia. The analysis found that community members are now engaged with many hazard-resilient and vulnerability-reducing livelihood activities, using SL to implement DRR, yet these approaches were almost absent prior to V2R. Consequently, the communities have achieved resilience characteristics, being more well-organized and better connected; having better access to infrastructure, services, and economic opportunities; are more knowledgeable and healthier; and are better managing their available resources. Critiques of the concepts are discussed, although in this case, DRR based on SL has shown positive results, exactly as development theory suggests.

Journal of Environmental Management

Emdad Haque

Bayes Ahmed

Bangladesh is one of the most disaster prone countries in the world. Cyclone disasters that affect millions of people, destroy homesteads and livelihoods, and trigger migration are common in the coastal region of Bangladesh. The aim of this article is to understand how the coastal communities in Bangladesh deal with the continuous threats of cyclones. As a case study, this study investigates communities that were affected by the Cyclone Sidr in 2007 and Cyclone Aila in 2009, covering 1555 households from 45 coastal villages in the southwestern region of Bangladesh. The survey method incorporated household based questionnaire techniques and community based focus group discussions. The pre-event situation highlights that the affected communities were physically vulnerable due to the strategic locations of the cyclone shelters nearer to those with social supreme status and the location of their houses in relatively low-lying lands. The victims were also socioeconomically vulnerable considering the high rate of illiteracy, larger family size, no ownership of land, and extreme poverty. They were mostly day labourers, farmers, and fishermen. Post-event situation reveals that the victims' houses and livelihoods were severely damaged or destroyed. Most victims were forced to shift their occupations (e.g., from farmers to fishermen), and many became unemployed. They also became heavily dependent on micro-credits and other forms of loans. A significant number of people were displaced and migrated to large urban agglomerations in search of livelihoods to maintain their families back in the affected villages. Migration was primarily undertaken as an adaptation strategy.

For generations, cyclones and tidal surges have frequently devastated lives and property in coastal and island Bangladesh. This study explores vulnerability to cyclone hazards using first-hand coping recollections from prior to, during and after these events. Qualitative field data suggest that, beyond extreme cyclone forces, localised vulnerability is defined in terms of response processes, infrastructure, socially uneven exposure, settlement development patterns, and livelihoods. Prior to cyclones, religious activities increase and people try to save food and valuable possessions. Those in dispersed settlements who fail to reach cyclone shelters take refuge in thatched-roof houses and big-branch trees. However, women and children are affected more despite the modification of traditional hierarchies during cyclone periods. Instinctive survival strategies and intra-community cooperation improve coping post cyclone. This study recommends that disaster reduction programmes encourage cyclone mitigation while being aware of localised realities, endogenous risk analyses, and coping and adaptation of affected communities (as active survivors rather than helpless victims).

Journal of Bangladesh …

Apurba Swatee Mahboob , Bishawjit Mallick

Edris Alam , Andrew E Collins

Natural Hazards

The purpose of this research is to explore indigenous coping strategies and identify underlying demographic, socio-economic and other relevant variables that influence the adoption of coping strategies in three distinct cyclone-prone coastal villages of Bangladesh. The study finds that cyclones and induced surges are a recurrent phenomenon in coastal Bangladesh; hence people are used to adjusting their lifestyle and adopting their own coping strategies intelligently. Adoption of a particular set of coping strategies depends not only on the magnitude, intensity and potential impacts of the cyclone and induced surge, but also age, gender, social class, dissemination of early warning information, locational exposure, external assistance, social protection and informal risk sharing mechanisms within the community. Indigenous cyclone disaster prevention and mitigation strategies significantly minimize the vulnerability of the people. Under extreme situations, when such disasters surpass the shock-bearing capacity of the victims, informal risk sharing mechanisms through social bonding and social safety-nets become vital for short-term survival and long-term livelihood security. Therefore, proper monitoring and understanding of local indigenous coping strategies are essential in order to target the most vulnerable groups exposed to disasters. Additionally, proper dissemination of early warning and government and non-government partnerships for relief and rehabilitation activities should be prioritized to ensure pro-poor disaster management activities. The study also recommends effective monitoring of the impact of aid to ensure corrective measures to avoid the development of relief dependency by disaster victims.

Mawya Siddeqa

One of the most devastating climatic hazard 'cyclone' hit coastal zone of Bangladesh more or less every two to three years; damaging physical infrastructure, loss of life and livelihood, property damage, disruption of social system, economy loss. Nisanbaria union of Taltoliupazila under Barguna district is adjacent to Bay of Bengal that's why during any kind of depression into the sea will hit this coastal area in a medium or large scale. This study focuses on assessment of cyclone vulnerability by analyzing community present situation and to assess the coping strategies by analyzing their past experience. For conducting this research both primary and secondary data are collected to fulfil the objectives. Factors that increase the vulnerability of local community includes location, economic condition, house pattern, lack of road connectivity, insufficient cyclone shelter, dependency ratio, lack of awareness etc. The coping strategies includes taking shelter in safe place...

International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction

Mahed Choudhury , Glen Hostetler

While it has been widely recognized that building community resilience to climate induced shocks requires learning processes at multiple societal levels, there has been limited research on the specific types of learning required at individual level to influence change and transformation at the community level. To determine how transformative learning and risk-mitigation actions shape community resilience to climate-induced disasters, we carried out a mixed-method empirical investigation on the southern coast of Bangladesh. We found that the relationship between transformative learning and resilience-building is complex, involving multiple social cultural-structural factors (e.g., beliefs, values, power structures), practical considerations (e.g., impact on livelihood, evacuation and relocation logistics), and cognitive factors. From our observations, we draw four general conclusions: i) local culture can constrain people's framing of risk and capacity for critical reflection, resulting in a deliberate denial and amnesia of past traumatic experiences; ii) learning alone cannot enhance resilience unless it is translated into action; iii) dependence on experiential learning can lead to the assumption that the severity of past disasters will not be surpassed, generating a false sense of security; and iv) the cultivation of forward-thinking attitudes coupled with innovative strategies, such as social networking, can successfully enhance resilience to climate-related disasters. Future policymaking aimed at building community resilience to climate shocks should therefore take into account cultural and individual cognitive barriers to transformative learning and attempt to remove structural barriers to translating learning into practical action.

Md. Iqbal Hossain

The present study was conducted based on secondary information. Cyclones having different intensities from 1970-2007 were analyzed to assess major damages on the life and environment. The secondary data were collected from Space Research and Remote Sensing Organization (SPARRSO), Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD), journals, national and international publications, articles, newspapers and internet surfing. Depending on the severity of damages five major cyclones were selected purposively to analyze the relationship among different parameters. From the study it is clear that total number of different cyclone such as depression, severe cyclonic storm with hurricane intensity is decreased a little bit but severe cyclonic storm are decreased during the period 1970-2007. Though some different categories of cyclones are decreasing but the severity of these cyclones are increasing as well as the impacts of cyclone are increasing. The analysis of the study it was shown that with the increasing of temperature, frequency of depression was decreased, frequency of cyclonic storm was increased. Negative correlation exists between temperatures increased and frequency of severe cyclonic storm and severe cyclonic storm with hurricane intensity. Adaptation activities such as – risk awareness physical and social infrastructure, resistance, preparedeness, disaster resistance in Nature (natural immunity), resident’s disaster awareness and community resilience, building community – based disaster awareness, developing physical and social infrastructures, planning for recovery and restoration and reduce damages of cyclone. Finally, depending on structural and non-structural measures some recommendations were suggested.

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Cyclone Aila

May 25, 2009 JPEG

May 25, 2009 TIFF

Google Earth - May 25, 2009 KML

Tropical Storm Aila struck southern Bangladesh and eastern India on May 27, 2009. The New York Times reported that floods and mudslides killed at least 191 people and left hundreds of thousands more homeless. As of May 27, the death toll was expected to rise.

The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Terra satellite captured this true-color image of Aila on May 25, 2009, the same day that the storm temporarily strengthened to a Category 1 cyclone. Aila almost completely fills this scene, stretching from the Bay of Bengal deep into India, Bangladesh, and Burma (Myanmar). On May 25, Aila’s wind speeds ranged from 74 kilometers per hour (46 miles per hour or 40 knots) to 120 kilometers per hour (75 miles per hour or 65 knots).

According to the Associated Press, some 2.3 million people were affected by Aila, many of them stranded in flooded villages. Storm surges in Bangladesh flooded agricultural areas with salty water. Home to roughly 25,000 residents, the coastal island Nijhum Dwip was reported to be completely submerged. As of May 27, 2009, many rural villages had not yet been reached by relief workers, and the death toll was expected to rise significantly as search and rescue efforts continued.

The high-resolution image provided above is at MODIS’ full spatial resolution (level of detail) of 250 meters per pixel. The MODIS Rapid Response System provides this image at additional resolutions.

NASA image by Jeff Schmaltz, MODIS Rapid Response Team, Goddard Space Flight Center. Caption by Michon Scott.

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Aila almost completely fills this true-color image from May 25, 2009. The storm stretches from the Bay of Bengal deep into India, Bangladesh, and Burma (Myanmar).

Image of the Day for May 29, 2009

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References & Resources

• McDonald, M. (2009, May 27). Cyclone Aila kills 191 in south Asia. The New York Times. Accessed May 28, 2009.
• Unisys Weather. (2009, May 24-25). 2009 hurricane/tropical data for the northern Indian Ocean: Cyclone Aila. Accessed May 28, 2009.

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Your environment. your health., climate change and human health literature portal climate-induced human displacement: a case study of cyclone aila in the south-west coastal region of bangladesh, climate change and human health literature portal.

• Publisher http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11069-015-2119-6

The objective of this study was to explore the livelihood patterns and access to the local public services of the climate induced displaced people migrated by the Cyclone Aila in the south-west coastal region of Bangladesh. The study analysed a number of consequences, such as the causes of displacement, their demographic and socio-economic conditions, and their access to the local public services. Data were collected from four unions of three upazilas in the Khulna Division. The study employed a mixed method approach, where quantitative data were collected through a household survey, and qualitative data through focus group discussions, in-depth case studies, and participant observation. The results showed that the Aila affected displaced people were migrated to the nearby places due to their financial vulnerability, loss of physical resources, and insecurity, and they were suffering severely in terms of their unemployment, lack of housing, health problems, and their low access to the local public services. The findings would be important consideration for the disaster policy-makers, disaster mangers, and NGO workers.

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NEW OCR GCSE - Natural Hazards: Case Study of Cyclone Aila

Subject: Geography

Age range: 14-16

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7 April 2022

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Cyclone aila response - bangladesh.

• Direct Relief

Direct Relief Medical Aid Supports Cyclone Aila Response

Consignment deployed in advance of cyclone season to trusted partner in Bangladesh

Direct Relief's consignment of medical aid delivered in advance of cyclone season has been activated in response to Cyclone Aila, which struck May 25, displacing more than 500,000 people in Bangladesh. A 40-foot ocean container of medical supplies and medicines, valued at $477,780 (wholesale), was delivered May 13 to Sangkalpa Trust in advance of cyclone season. The consignment included materials specifically needed during cyclone response, including antibiotics, analgesics, syringes, wheelchairs, autoclaves, oral rehydration solutions, pediatric nutritionals, and personal care products.

Direct Relief's Asia program officer Matt MacCalla was in Bangladesh when Cyclone Aila hit, on a follow-up assessment trip with partners who responded to 2007's Cyclone Sidr. That response informed Direct Relief's Cyclone Preparedness Program, launched earlier this year, and identified trusted partners well suited to cyclone- and flood-oriented emergency response in the region, including Sangkalpa Trust.

Nongovernmental, apolitical Sangkalpa Trust was founded in 1984 expressly to provide aid to people in Bangladesh affected by cyclones, which recur every year. Sangkalpa Trust is headquartered in Patharghata, in the southern part of the country near the Bay of Bengal, where cyclones strike most often. It establishes temporary medical clinics among displaced populations following cyclones, in addition to providing shelter, clothing, clean water, education, and legal services. Its regular catchment area includes 126,000 people, and extends to 500,000 when a cyclone strikes.

Cyclone Aila's 60-mile-an-hour winds and heavy rain have uprooted trees, damaged homes, and caused massive flooding in Bangladesh's low-lying southern delta region. Fishermen and families living along the coastline have been most affected by the cyclone, a cycle that repeats every year. Sangkalpa Trust reports seeing an influx of patients with injuries among the displaced, and is preparing to treat an increase in waterborne diseases that typically follow floods.

Tapping into emergency-designated funds, Direct Relief is providing additional emergency aid to support Sangkalpa Trust's temporary clinics among the displaced in Bangladesh, and to partners in India caring for cyclone-affected people.

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Insights on migration amid climate change, study on women and girls’ participation in community disaster risk management in bangladesh (august 2021), building resilience: helping families in bangladesh recover from disaster.

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Thematic Report – March 2018 - Rohingya Crisis: Cyclones background

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When did it occur ?

23rd to the 28th of May 2009

Where did it hit?

Southern Bangladesh, which is located in south Asia.

Neighbouring countries include Burma and India

How did it form ?

It formed over the Bay of Bengal. The sea temp. was 26.5 degrees. The air pressure was 967 mB. Due to the Coriolis effect, the winds rose and spun anti-clockwise. The cyclone formed over the sea which meant that there was more energy, which made the impacts more severe.

How many people died?

How many people lost their homes ?

750,000 people lost their homes due to flooding. This was due to houses being made out of mud so they were easily destroyed when heavy rain and tidal waves stuck.

Social impacts

Dead bodies contaminated water which meant that it wasn’t as to drink - so hundreds of people had to go without clean water Flood embankments were destroyed and a year after the Cyclone, they were still broken. This meant that people couldn’t start to rebuild their homes / restart their life A year after the cyclone 10,000 people were still homeless Many schools were destroyed which meant that children didn’t get an education

Economic impacts

Bangladesh is flat (only 6+ metres above sea level.) this meant that when storm surges hit, much of costal Bangladesh east flooded. The salt from the sea got absorbed into the land (Salinisation.)this meant that crops were unable to grow. As many rely on farming then many won’t have a way of making money Also trees offer some protection from cyclones but without these trees , the force of the cyclone is greater

Environmental impacts

Salt from flooding couldn’t grow for months after the cyclone Crops were destroyed by heavy rain and flooding The heavy rain and wind meant an increased rate of soil erosion. This damaged existing vegetation and ecosystems

Dry clothes were distributed by NGOs Water was rationed so everyone could get fresh water to drink Government camps were set up to give people a place to stay The government issued health workshops to explain the importance of hand washing Oxfam am gave out grants to help people rebuild their businesses NGOs are teaching people to design cyclone proof houses. Although these houses are low cost, they still cost around $15,000 which is more than most people can afford

Neighbouring countries such as India give Bangladesh regular updates as to air pressure, wind speeds and temperature. They will warn Bangladesh is they pick up on a cyclone. Messages are send out to warn people on incoming cyclones. However, as Bangladesh has a population of 3 x the UK, it means that it’s impossible to evacuate everyone but regular updates give people time to evacuate

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Assessment of Cyclone Aila Recovery Progress in Bangladesh: A Comparison Between Rice and Shrimp Farming Villages in Koyra

• First Online: 14 July 2020

Cite this chapter

• Md. Shibly Sadik 3 ,
• Hajime Nakagawa 4 ,
• Md. Rezaur Rahman 5 ,
• Rajib Shaw 6 ,
• Kenji Kawaike 4 &
• Gulsan Ara Parvin 7  

460 Accesses

2 Citations

Land use planning is one of the basic principles of Build Back Better (BBB) and it shapes the risk reduction aspects. In the south-western region of Bangladesh, the conflict between shrimp and rice farming is the most critical obstacle to implement any land use plan. There are several studies which tried to compare shrimp and rice farming from the context of economy, livelihood, environment, and gender, to aid the land use planning process. This research aims to compare shrimp and rice farming from the context of disaster management. The study investigated the recovery process in Koyra Upazila after it was hit by cyclone Aila, and attempted to assess the recovery progress in the shrimp and rice dominated villages of Uttarbedkashi, Koyra. This study thereby brings another dimension i.e. “performance in post-disaster recovery” to consider when land use planning. It helps to understand whether to prioritize shrimp or rice cultivation in the area. To measure recovery progress, the research adopted a people’s perception generated synthetic data based method. FGDs were conducted with the local people to acquire time series data on the recovery progress. This perception-generated time series data helped to construct synthetic recovery curves which illustrate the progress of recovery. The results evidently show that resuming rice cultivation and switching shrimp to rice contributed to better community recovery.

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Upazila is the third level of administrative unit in Bangladesh Since it functions as a subunit of a district, it can be defined as sub-district.

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Sadik, M.S., Nakagawa, H., Rahman, M.R., Shaw, R., Kawaike, K., Parvin, G.A. (2020). Assessment of Cyclone Aila Recovery Progress in Bangladesh: A Comparison Between Rice and Shrimp Farming Villages in Koyra. In: Haque, A., Chowdhury, A. (eds) Water, Flood Management and Water Security Under a Changing Climate. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-47786-8_7

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Hurricane Katrina Case Study

Hurricane Katrina is tied with Hurricane Harvey (2017) as the costliest hurricane on record. Although not the strongest in recorded history, the hurricane caused an estimated $125 billion worth of damage. The category five hurricane is the joint eight strongest ever recorded, with sustained winds of 175 mph (280 km/h).

The hurricane began as a very low-pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The system strengthened, forming a hurricane that moved west, approaching the Florida coast on the evening of the 25th August 2005.

A satellite image of Hurricane Katrina.

Hurricane Katrina was an extremely destructive and deadly Category 5 hurricane. It made landfall on Florida and Louisiana, particularly the city of New Orleans and surrounding areas, in August 2005, causing catastrophic damage from central Florida to eastern Texas. Fatal flaws in flood engineering protection led to a significant loss of life in New Orleans. The levees, designed to cope with category three storm surges, failed to lead to catastrophic flooding and loss of life.

What were the impacts of Hurricane Katrina?

Hurricane Katrina was a category five tropical storm. The hurricane caused storm surges over six metres in height. The city of New Orleans was one of the worst affected areas. This is because it lies below sea level and is protected by levees. The levees protect the city from the Mississippi River and Lake Ponchartrain. However, these were unable to cope with the storm surge, and water flooded the city.

$105 billion was sought by The Bush Administration for repairs and reconstruction in the region. This funding did not include potential interruption of the oil supply, destruction of the Gulf Coast’s highway infrastructure, and exports of commodities such as grain.

Although the state made an evacuation order, many of the poorest people remained in New Orleans because they either wanted to protect their property or could not afford to leave.

The Superdome stadium was set up as a centre for people who could not escape the storm. There was a shortage of food, and the conditions were unhygienic.

Looting occurred throughout the city, and tensions were high as people felt unsafe. 1,200 people drowned in the floods, and 1 million people were made homeless. Oil facilities were damaged, and as a result, the price of petrol rose in the UK and USA.

80% of the city of New Orleans and large neighbouring parishes became flooded, and the floodwaters remained for weeks. Most of the transportation and communication networks servicing New Orleans were damaged or disabled by the flooding, and tens of thousands of people who had not evacuated the city before landfall became stranded with little access to food, shelter or basic necessities.

The storm surge caused substantial beach erosion , in some cases completely devastating coastal areas.

Katrina also produced massive tree loss along the Gulf Coast, particularly in Louisiana’s Pearl River Basin and among bottomland hardwood forests.

The storm caused oil spills from 44 facilities throughout southeastern Louisiana. This resulted in over 7 million US gallons (26,000 m 3 ) of oil being leaked. Some spills were only a few hundred gallons, and most were contained on-site, though some oil entered the ecosystem and residential areas.

Some New Orleans residents are no longer able to get home insurance to cover them from the impact of hurricanes.

What was the response to Hurricane Katrina?

The US Government was heavily criticised for its handling of the disaster. Despite many people being evacuated, it was a very slow process. The poorest and most vulnerable were left behind.

The government provided $50 billion in aid.

During the early stages of the recovery process, the UK government sent food aid.

The National Guard was mobilised to restore law and order in New Orleans.

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Hot Oceans Worsened Dubai’s Dramatic Flooding, Scientists Say

An international team of researchers found that heavy rains had intensified in the region, though they couldn’t say for sure how much climate change was responsible.

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By Raymond Zhong

Scenes of flood-ravaged neighborhoods in one of the planet’s driest regions stunned the world this month. Heavy rains in the United Arab Emirates and Oman submerged cars, clogged highways and killed at least 21 people. Flights out of Dubai’s airport, a major global hub, were severely disrupted.

The downpours weren’t a total surprise — forecasters had anticipated the storms several days earlier and issued warnings. But they were certainly unusual.

Here’s what to know.

Heavy rain there is rare, but not unheard-of.

On average, the Arabian Peninsula receives a scant few inches of rain a year, although scientists have found that a sizable chunk of that precipitation falls in infrequent but severe bursts, not as periodic showers. These rains often come during El Niño conditions like the ones the world is experiencing now.

U.A.E. officials said the 24-hour rain total on April 16 was the country’s largest since records there began in 1949 . And parts of the nation had already experienced an earlier round of thunderstorms in March.

Oman, with its coastline on the Arabian Sea, is also vulnerable to tropical cyclones. Past storms there have brought torrential rain, powerful winds and mudslides, causing extensive damage.

Global warming is projected to intensify downpours.

Stronger storms are a key consequence of human-caused global warming. As the atmosphere gets hotter, it can hold more moisture, which can eventually make its way down to the earth as rain or snow.

But that doesn’t mean rainfall patterns are changing in precisely the same way across every part of the globe.

In their latest assessment of climate research , scientists convened by the United Nations found there wasn’t enough data to have firm conclusions about rainfall trends in the Arabian Peninsula and how climate change was affecting them. The researchers said, however, that if global warming were to be allowed to continue worsening in the coming decades, extreme downpours in the region would quite likely become more intense and more frequent.

Hot oceans are a big factor.

An international team of scientists has made a first attempt at estimating the extent to which climate change may have contributed to April’s storms. The researchers didn’t manage to pin down the connection precisely, though in their analysis, they did highlight one known driver of heavy rain in the region: above-normal ocean temperatures.

Large parts of the Indian, Pacific and Atlantic Oceans have been hotter than usual recently, in part because of El Niño and other natural weather cycles, and in part because of human-induced warming .

When looking only at El Niño years, the scientists estimated that storm events as infrequent as this month’s delivered 10 percent to 40 percent more rain to the region than they would in a world that hadn’t been warmed by human activities. They cautioned, however, that these estimates were highly uncertain.

“Rainfall, in general, is getting more extreme,” said Mansour Almazroui, a climate scientist at King Abdulaziz University in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, and one of the researchers who contributed to the analysis.

The analysis was conducted by scientists affiliated with World Weather Attribution, a research collaboration that studies extreme weather events shortly after they occur. Their findings about this month’s rains haven’t yet been peer reviewed, but are based on standardized methods .

The role of cloud seeding isn’t clear.

The U.A.E. has for decades worked to increase rainfall and boost water supplies by seeding clouds. Essentially, this involves shooting particles into clouds to encourage the moisture to gather into larger, heavier droplets, ones that are more likely to fall as rain or snow.

Cloud seeding and other rain-enhancement methods have been tried around the world, including in Australia, China, India, Israel, South Africa and the United States. Studies have found that these operations can, at best, affect precipitation modestly — enough to turn a downpour into a bigger downpour, but probably not a drizzle into a deluge.

Still, experts said pinning down how much seeding might have contributed to this month’s storms would require detailed study.

“In general, it is quite a challenge to assess the impact of seeding,” said Luca Delle Monache, a climate scientist at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography in La Jolla, Calif. Dr. Delle Monache has been leading efforts to use artificial intelligence to improve the U.A.E.’s rain-enhancement program.

An official with the U.A.E.’s National Center of Meteorology, Omar Al Yazeedi, told news outlets that the agency didn’t conduct any seeding during the latest storms. His statements didn’t make clear, however, whether that was also true in the hours or days before.

Mr. Al Yazeedi didn’t respond to emailed questions from The New York Times, and Adel Kamal, a spokesman for the center, didn’t have further comment.

Cities in dry places just aren’t designed for floods.

Wherever it happens, flooding isn’t just a matter of how much rain comes down. It’s also about what happens to all that water once it’s on the ground — most critically, in the places people live.

Cities in arid regions often aren’t designed to drain very effectively. In these areas, paved surfaces block rain from seeping into the earth below, forcing it into drainage systems that can easily become overwhelmed.

One recent study of Sharjah , the capital of the third-largest emirate in the U.A.E., found that the city’s rapid growth over the past half-century had made it vulnerable to flooding at far lower levels of rain than before.

Omnia Al Desoukie contributed reporting.

Raymond Zhong reports on climate and environmental issues for The Times. More about Raymond Zhong