kruger national park case study

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The real economic value of Greater Kruger National Park

A 2020 study has revealed the considerable economic contributions of the Kruger National Park and the surrounding “contiguous reserves” that together compose the Greater Kruger National Park (GKNP). The study is a joint effort between researchers from the University of Florida and South African National Parks (SANParks).

In considering the public, private, and community-owned components as a whole, the study attributes different values in financial, social, and political domains to each. The researchers suggest that the GKNP should be considered as a whole when working towards management frameworks and policies. The private reserves, while constituting only 12% of the total land area, were responsible for over 60% of the total employment, tax and GDP contributions. Conversely, the Kruger National Park accounts for almost all domestic visits, performing a vital political and social function.

Across the total 22,686km² (23 million hectares) of the entire open system, there are close to 8,000 beds and some 700 different camp and lodge sites. As a general rule, the Kruger National Park itself is oriented towards budget self-catering options, while the private reserves tend to cater to more luxury, high-end safari experiences. For the study, anyone living within 50km of the GKNP boundary fence was considered to be “local”, which equated to approximately 2.9 million people, including many in semi-rural and socio-economically disadvantaged communities. The study reveals that from a period between 2016-2017, there were 3.5 million bed nights and day-visits to the GKNP, of which 35% on average were foreign tourists. As would be expected, the highest visitation by far was to the Kruger National Park itself, while the provincial reserves (Manyeleti Nature Reserve, Letaba Ranch Game Reserve and Makuya Nature Reserve) accounted for only 1% of the total visits.

Of the estimated R5.8 billion trip-related spending in South Africa by GKNP photographic tourists, all but R0.9 billion (which went into travel costs) was received in the local area. The total number of people employed in the GKNP equated to around 10,388, with R1.17 billion spent on wages and salaries in one year. In terms of both tourist spending and employment, the surrounding private reserves accounted for the majority. In total, the GKNP contributed R2.6 billion to South Africa’s GDP for 2016/17, including R975 million in tax revenue. When accounting for chain multipliers and induced spending of wage-earners, this contribution could be considered almost tripled to around R6.6 billion to the national economy.

Considered as an overall system, 80% of funding for reserve management of the GKNP is generated by photographic tourism, but this does not apply evenly across the surrounding private reserves. While in the National Park visitor fees go directly into covering conservation costs, the private reserves rely primarily on a levy system charged to commercial operators. The report suggests that resistance to levy hikes has resulted in managers of the private reserves having to seek alternative funds from donors and consumptive tourism. In some of the private reserves, consumptive tourism and trophy hunting account for up to 80% of the management income. In contrast, the provincial reserves are almost entirely reliant on public funds.

The presence of the Kruger National Park served as a powerful catalyst for the growth of a large and vibrant economy in the surrounding area, with substantial conservation, social and economic benefits as a result. The provincial reserves, however, are struggling with several challenges including poor infrastructure, high wage bills and low funding, as well as claims by neighbouring communities on the existing revenue streams.  These issues, combined with weak governance and a lack of accountability at provincial and community-level could undermine the entire system, say the authors.

The system’s most significant capacity for institutional resilience comes through the diverse functions each component offers, something that will be particularly relevant during the current COVID-19 pandemic (which occurred after the compilation of this article). Importantly, the researchers call for an extended approach in assessing the value of each component of the GKNP and, given that their approach has yielded a much larger economy than previously thought, this needs to be taken into account for high-level strategies. Though the private reserves generate the most revenue, their relationship with the national park is symbiotic; it allows them to capitalize on the brand as a whole, creating a public-private mosaic.

The study concludes that the “partnership in the Greater Kruger National Park between private reserves and the national park is key, not only for branding but for stabilizing the system’s high-performing economic engine with political and cultural ballast.”

The full report can be accessed here: “ The Comparative Financial and Economic Performance of Protected Areas in the Greater Kruger National Park, South Africa: Functional Diversity and Resilience in the Socio-Economics of a Landscape-Scale Reserve Network ,” Chidakel, A., Eb, C. and Child, B. (2020) Journal of Sustainable Tourism.

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Water pollution in national parks: case study of kruger national park in south africa.

So far, we have discussed about air, noise and land pollution issues that are prevalent in national parks. In this blog post, the focus will be on another type of environmental pollution- water pollution , specifically in Kruger National Park (KNP) in South Africa. I will be adopting the “Message Box” approach that we have learned from Tutorial 1, to unpack and summarise key information from a journal article on the impacts of pollution in KNP. The main source that I will be drawing information from, is a journal article titled “Pollution impacts on the aquatic ecosystems of the Kruger National Park, South Africa”, which was written by Riddell et al. and published in the Scientific African journal in 2019.

But first, let’s take a quick look at a video that summarizes the problems of water pollution that the KNP is facing today.

Context The KNP is a savanna ecosystem that is situated in the middle reaches of a few sizeable and biologically diverse transboundary river systems. Over the last 30 years, the KNP has been at the forefront of applied river ecosystems research due to the various challenges that the rivers face- which have often arisen from anthropogenic changes in the catchments of the park. The resultant challenges give rise to a multitude of effects that bear upon the parks’ capability to maintain the viability of aquatic ecosystems in a large and biodiverse landscape.

Main Rivers of the KNP ( South African National Parks )

Audience Various Stakeholders that are responsible for the management of the KNP, such as the South African National Parks (SANParks) and the Olifants Catchment Management Agency, as well as the users of the rivers, such as the densely populated peri-urban settlements who rely on the water from the river for agriculture and irrigation.

Purpose To get an overview of the challenges that the KNP face in terms of upstream pollutants and its impact on the aquatic ecosystems. Since it is the responsibility of the KNP to conserve these important ecosystems, the focus on the effect of diffuse pollutant impacts to the freshwater aquatic biota as well as the diversity of these impacts will be explored.

Issue Water pollution in the rivers of the KNP as a result of mining activities and municipal wastewater problems.

• Cyanide spills occur from extensive mining of copper and phosphate along a tributary of the Olifants River at KNP’s western boundary. The mining expansion in the Olifants River suffered serious salt enrichment, mainly from the sulphate and phosphate through controlled effluent discharge
• There is little oversight of the licenses of industrial mining facilities that sets out how much water it can use and what quality of water it can release into the river, especially for mines owned by people with political connections (Kings, 2017)
• Municipal wastewater treatment plants release polluted water more often than not. These plants are generally acknowledged in the environment sector as being the single worst source of pollution in South Africa (Kings, 2017)
• There is no systemic eco status monitoring that is taking place in the KNP’s northern rivers for at least 20 years and this is a cause for concern. Only the Crocodile and Sabie systems are being monitored by the Inkomati-Usuthu Catchment Management Agency (IUCMA)

Bosveld Phosphates pollutes Kruger rivers, causing acidic waters and resulting in the death of fishes ( Kings, 2014 )

• Point and diffuse sources create a cascade of environmental pressures, such as affecting the mortalities of species like the Nile crocodile
• The manifestation of diseases as a result of upstream pollution impacts and eutrophication leads to a trophic level shift, with both crocodiles and sharp-tooth catfish changing to a more piscivorous diet
• Discernible effects of heavy metal bioaccumulation as a result of mining activities in the Olifants catchment
• Impacts on top predators such as the Tigerfish in the aquatic food chains
• Diffuse accumulation of Copper, Mercury and build up in egg-shells of crocodiles in the Olifants River, resulting in an eco-toxicological effect
• Intermittent fish kills arising from anoxic sediment sluicing
• Serious human health risks associated with regular subsistence of protein consumption of tissue from fish
• People using untreated water from these contaminated sites (along the Olifants) face a high risk of contracting diseases, such as diarrhoea and E coli
• Rivers supply valuable water resources for domestic water supply, irrigation farming, industrial and mining developments. Tackling the pollution related issues in the KNP would thus provide important economic and social benefits to the users of both South Africa and Mozambique.
• Conserve the ecosystems and the biodiversity in the KNP
• Ensure safe water supply to tourist camps in the park that are dependent on the water from the Olifants River

Kruger National Park wildlife at watering hole. Source: Secret Africa

• The rivers of Kruger cannot be managed in isolation from the rest of the catchment area upstream of the park, but will need to align with integrated catchment management processes
• Categorising different rivers for various management options and setting up relevant institutions to oversee water resources within the 19 water management areas throughout the country
• Adopt a more stringent approach in ensuring that industrial mining activities follow the regulations set out for them, and punish those who do not stick by them, such as through heavier fines.
• Promote awareness of the benefits of conserving river biodiversity within the water management areas by tackling the prevalent pollution issues in the KNP

Till next time, Irsyad

—————— References:

Kings, S., 2017.  A River Of Shit, Chemicals, Metals Flows Through Our Land . [online] The Mail & Guardian. Available at: <https://mg.co.za/article/2017-04-13-00-a-river-of-shit-chemicals-metals-flows-through-our-land/>

Kings, S., 2014.  Bosveld Phosphates Pollutes Kruger Rivers, Again . [online] The Mail & Guardian. Available at: <https://mg.co.za/article/2014-03-10-company-pollutes-kruger-rivers-again/>

Riddell, E., Govender, D., Botha, J., Sithole, H., Petersen, R. and Shikwambana, P., 2019. Pollution impacts on the aquatic ecosystems of the Kruger National Park, South Africa.  Scientific African , 6, p.e00195.

Siyabona Africa. n.d.  Managing Kruger’s Rivers . [online] Available at: <http://www.krugerpark.co.za/krugerpark-times-4-7-krugers-rivers-24334.html>

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Challenges of Geotourism in South Africa: A Case Study of the Kruger National Park

As a new phenomenon, geotourism research is on the rise. Although South Africa has some interesting geoheritage sites, not much has been done to investigate the potential contribution of geotourism to the tourism sector, the protection of natural resources and employment generation, let alone the challenges that may be experienced in promoting geotourism. Therefore, this paper aims to describe the concept of geotourism and to identify the challenges of geotourism. It achieves this by looking at the case of the Kruger National Park, one of the largest game reserves in Africa, containing an abundance of geotourism sites. This research adopted a qualitative approach, with data collection involving semi-structured interviews with sixteen key informants to understand the challenges of geotourism. Manual content analysis was employed for analysing the data. A significant finding was that there were seven potential challenges in promoting and developing geotourism in the Kruger National Pa...

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The relationship between drought and tourist arrivals: A case study of Kruger National Park, South Africa

Affiliations.

• 1 Department of Hydrology and Water Resources, University of Venda, South Africa.
• 2 Department of Tourism Management, Tshwane University of Technology, South Africa.
• PMID: 29955349
• PMCID: PMC6014018
• DOI: 10.4102/jamba.v9i1.471

National parks around the world have been recognised as important sources of nature experiences for both local and international visitors. In South Africa, national parks are similarly important recreational and nature tourism attractions. They offer visitors an unparalleled diversity of tourism opportunities, including game viewing, bush walks and exposure to culture and history. South African National Parks (SANParks), established in 1926, is one of the world's leading conservation and scientific research bodies and a leading agent in maintaining the country's indigenous natural environment. The study aims to analyse the correlation between drought and the number of tourist arrivals to the Kruger National Park (KNP). Rainfall data, as well as data on tourist arrivals at KNP for the period from 1963 to 2015 were obtained from the South African Weather Services (SAWS) and SANParks, respectively. Rainfall data were used to determine the drought years at the KNP through computing the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) for various stations around the park. Pearson's correlation coefficient was used as a statistical measure of the strength of a linear relationship between drought and tourist arrivals. The results showed that KNP experienced both negative and positive tourist arrivals, although the former was the case, tourist arrivals showed an increasing trend. The correlation relationship showed that 19.36% of the drought years corresponded to a negative change in tourist arrivals to the park. The results obtained confirm that the tourism industry is a fragile industry which is prone to environmental, social and economic state of a region.

Animals Around the Globe

Kruger National Park – All you need to know

Posted: November 25, 2023 | Last updated: November 26, 2023

Have you ever heard about the Kruger National Park?

Or even luckier- have you ever been yourself? This is one of South Africa's national treasures. A spectacular piece of land totally protected and roamed by Africa's most incredible animals .

The Big 5 , amongst many more, reside in this wild and wonderful place, and the diverse fauna and flora bring in almost a million visitors every year. 

The  Kruger National Park  is approximately the size of the whole of Wales which measures to 1,948 528 million hectares. It covers both the Mpumalanga and the Limpopo Provinces in the northern parts of South Africa and offers the visitor an exhilarating and up-close wildlife experience. 

Where to begin?

Lion Sands River Lodge

If you wish to make your dream of exploring the Kruger a reality, these operators can make that a reality for you!

Upon arrival one also has to pay a conservation fee- this is for the upkeep and safety of the National Park as there is a lot of work being done to protect the animals internally.

From there airport, visitors usually get picked up by their game lodges accommodation (if you’ve gone that route), or you can hire a car to do your own viewing and travel within the Kruger.

Once you land you immediately get a sense of excitement and can usually spot amazing animals from the plane. As soon as you step out of the plane the wilderness is clear and exciting! 

The hub of the Kruger National Park and the biggest rest camp is called Skakuza. There is a small airport called the Skakuza Airport, with a landing strip suited for small planes.

Skukuza Rest Camp

Skakuza, as the largest rest camp, has so much to offer. The accommodation in the camp gives one a real sense of culture in the Kruger as all the accommodation sites are shaped in traditional hut formats- completely round. The African culture in this area believes that having corners in a home is a space where evil spirits can dwell- hence the round huts and rondavels.

When walking around the camp, be careful of mischievous monkeys trying to steal a meal or even a backpack, and keep looking for rare and precious bush babies.

Skakuza is situated on the Southern Banks of the Sabie River. The camp is well foliaged and there are lots of lofty trees along the river's edge. Activities and facilities are diverse in this camp, as are the animals and plants found both within the camp and in the surrounding areas. 

Entry and exit of the camps in relatively strict and there are severe penalties for not meeting the curfew of the camps internally. No one is permitted to do independent night drives- as it is far to dangerous. However, guided tours with special permission occur every evening and one can do so with a permitted company.

There are also various permits and passes you must obtain from here, wether you’re hiring a car to do your own game drives, or with a guided tour, there are very strict regulations to follow for your own safety as well as the animals safety.

This camp serves as the ‘headquarters’ for the Kruger, and it is from here you can enjoy a meal and their restaurants and consult the SANParks (South African National Parks) officials about any queries and concerns.

Skukuza, as previously mentioned is the Kruger National Park’s largest rest camp and administrative headquarters. 

• Thick–tailed Bush Baby
• Spotted Hyena
• Purple–crested Lourie

These are all very lucky to spot, and some break into the camp itself, but mostly one can spot these cute five in the surrounding area and in trees. In the case of the hyena- this certainly won’t be in the camp itself- not to worry.

Satara Rest Camp

Clearly, Satara is a special camp to visit for its rich and popular wildlife viewing. It is situated around 90 kilometres from Skakuza, and has the most amazing sense of ‘wild’ in the camp.

Of the smaller animals, the Honeybadger is something to look out for on this South African safari. At night, spotted hyena regularly whoop from the camp’s perimeter while the repetitive sonar chink of fruit bats blends with the chirp of cicada and cricket.

Besides the regular big cats , general game includes; Blue wildebeest, zebra, waterbuck, giraffe and the ubiquitous Impala. Rhino, buffalo and elephant are also easily seen from Satara.

Because the fertile grazing land surrounding Satara this attracts vast herds of antelope and other grazers, and therefore, the large cats that prey on them are in abundance for you to see on your South African safari.

Satara Camp stakes its reputation on being one of the best spots in the world for viewing Lion, Leopard and Cheetah in the wild. Satara Camp is often referred to as the ‘cat camp’ because of the large numbers of Lion and Cheetah in the area, and is for this reason that Satara is such a popular camp.

Plenty of activities like bush barbecues and traditional dances complement the game viewing here. Even an Open Air Theatre is available in this camp for visitors to enjoy. As mentioned earlier, Satara is the best camp for viewing lion, leopard and cheetah and there are good bird watching opportunities from the Sweni Bird Hide near by.

Large cats are frequently spotted in the Muzadzeni area, where a large and successful Lion pride operates, or along the 5100 route that runs east from Satara Camp, hugging the bank of the N’wanetsi stream. This stretch is especially productive in winter when the veld is dry, and Lion and Leopard lie waiting to ambush thirsty Antelope that swarm in large herds to drink at the few remaining pools of water. 

Although there are no major rivers, there are watercourses lined with well-developed trees. There are 3 dams and 6 waterholes in the area, offering you plenty of opportunity to spot the Big Five.

Satara, like other camps, has a plethora of resident birds. Particularly prominent are Red-billed buffalo weaver, glossy, greater Blue-eared and Burchell’s starling and mourning dove. At night, giant eagle, barn owl, scops and pearl spotted-owls can be seen and heard in the camp. The open plains to the north of the camp are a good place to record Montagu’s and pallid harrier for a South Africa safari.

Lower Sabie

In this rest camp, the bounty and plenitude of nature are very evident, eloquently symbolised by the most conspicuous of its numerous trees, the mighty sycamore fig, which provides generously for the livelihood of many birds and insects . Not only do these giants produce fruit at least twice a year, but different trees produce fruit at different times, extending the gifts of life over many months. Watching the endless procession of animals coming to drink at the Sabie River establishes a sense of one’s own place in the eternal cycle.

Lower Sabie is a camp which graces the banks of the Sabie River, one of the few perennial rivers to flow through the Kruger National Park. Visitors cannot but feel soothed by the view towards the river and the Lebombo Mountains beyond. 

Game viewing is possible from Olifants Rest Camp where a shaded lookout platform is positioned. Here at your Kruger Park accommodation you are sure to spot Hippopotamus, Crocodiles in the Olifants River as well as the occasional Lion kill.

To the south, rolling plains are dotted with Buffalo, Giraffe and Kudu. While along the Olifants River, wildlife such as Lion, Crocodiles and Hippopotamus can be viewed on gameviewing and sightseeing excursions in Kruger Park, as well as an abundance of birdlife such as Owls, Storks and Eagles.

Because Olifants Camp is situated in a transitional zone, 2 distinct types of vegetation can be found, offering a wide range of game. In the north, the low lying Mopane trees provide cover for Zebra, Impala, Kudu and Elephant .

Guests that visit Olifants will be exposed to an unforgettable window of Africa. This camp is situated a top a hill which towers several hundred feet over the Olifants river. Views from the lookout platforms allow one to see the river below, just as a soaring eagle would survey it, as it hunts from the skies.

Pretoriouskop

Nostalgia prompted an exception to the rule for Pretoriuskop, the Kruger National Park’s oldest rest camp, and exotic flowering plants were allowed to stay, enhancing the strong sense of the past that is so pervasive.

The impressive granite dome known as "Shabeni Hill" is not far from the camp, which is found in the south-western corner of the Kruger National Park. It is immediately apparent to any visitor that Pretoriuskop is unique as brilliant red trees adorn the camp, pre-dating the decision to make exclusive use of indigenous plants in laying out rest camp gardens.

When the world was still young, some 3 500 million years ago, molten rock forced its way through the earth’s crust and solidified to form the spectacular granite outcrops where Pretoriuskop Rest Camp is now nestled. 

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Jàmbá: Journal of Disaster Risk Studies

On-line version  issn 1996-1421 print version  issn 2072-845x, jàmbá vol.9 n.1 cape town  2017, http://dx.doi.org/10.4102/jamba.v9i1.471 .

ORIGINAL RESEARCH

The relationship between drought and tourist arrivals: A case study of Kruger National Park, South Africa

Fhumulani I. Mathivha I ; Ndivhuwo N. Tshipala II ; Zanele Nkuna I

I Department of Hydrology and Water Resources, University of Venda, South Africa II Department of Tourism Management, Tshwane University of Technology, South Africa

Correspondence

National parks around the world have been recognised as important sources of nature experiences for both local and international visitors. In South Africa, national parks are similarly important recreational and nature tourism attractions. They offer visitors an unparalleled diversity of tourism opportunities, including game viewing, bush walks and exposure to culture and history. South African National Parks (SANParks), established in 1926, is one of the world's leading conservation and scientific research bodies and a leading agent in maintaining the country's indigenous natural environment. The study aims to analyse the correlation between drought and the number of tourist arrivals to the Kruger National Park (KNP). Rainfall data, as well as data on tourist arrivals at KNP for the period from 1963 to 2015 were obtained from the South African Weather Services (SAWS) and SANParks, respectively. Rainfall data were used to determine the drought years at the KNP through computing the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) for various stations around the park. Pearson's correlation coefficient was used as a statistical measure of the strength of a linear relationship between drought and tourist arrivals. The results showed that KNP experienced both negative and positive tourist arrivals, although the former was the case, tourist arrivals showed an increasing trend. The correlation relationship showed that 19.36% of the drought years corresponded to a negative change in tourist arrivals to the park. The results obtained confirm that the tourism industry is a fragile industry which is prone to environmental, social and economic state of a region.

Introduction

Problem statement

Climate and weather are some of the important factors taken into account by tourists when deciding on a destination. Weather conditions also influence the successful operation of tourism businesses (Becken 2010). Unfavourable climate and poor weather conditions act as push and pull factors for tourists to travel to warmer, cooler or drier locations (Lise & Tol 2002). Scott and Lemieux (2010) stated that tourism is a significant contributor to national and local economies around the world and is increasingly promoted as having an important role in contributing to the UN Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), particularly the alleviation of poverty in least developed countries. The Kruger National Park (KNP) is one of the largest conservation areas in South Africa and attracts more tourists than any other park in South Africa (Van der Merwe & Saayman 2008). The KNP creates employment in the two main provinces in which the park operates; therefore, if weather conditions are not favourable, the number of tourist arrivals may decline, which would result in unemployment in the Limpopo and Mpumalanga provinces of South Africa. With the growing concern of a changing climate, little attention has been focused towards research that aims to address the economic feasibility of tourism under the changing climate. Southern Africa has observed a warming trend over the past decades, which is consistent with the global trend of temperature rise (Kandji, Verchot & Mackensen 2006). The former creates a favourable environment for the drought phenomenon.

Study objective

Climate itself is a principal resource for tourism, as it co-determines the suitability of locations for a wide range of tourist activities and is a principal driver of the seasonality of demand (Thomas et al. 2013). Most studies that link climate to tourism have been solely focused on the effects of climate change on tourism. Most tourism studies focus on economic variables (Crouch 1994; Lim, Min & McAleer 2008) as opposed to climate, weather and environment changes. Climate studies, however, have gained momentum over the years as it has been identified as a key driver for tourism and an important destination attribute (Hu & Ritchie 1993). This study, therefore, attempts to evaluate the effects that emanate from drought in the KNP on the arrival of tourists. This will be achieved by correlating Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) drought years with the percentage of tourist arrivals in the KNP.

Literature review

Understanding drought

Drought is a natural feature of climate. This is a critical natural disaster that adversely affects people, river basins, water resource systems and ecosystems (Jahangir, Sayedur & Saadat 2013). The term 'drought' is defined differently in numerous applications (Wambua, Mutua & Raude 2014). However, it is a challenge to quantitatively define the term. Droughts may be expressed in terms of precipitation deficit, soil-water deficit, low stream flows, low reservoir levels and low groundwater level depending on which sector is referred to. The common feature among all sectors is the deficiency in water or moisture. Figure 1 depicts the sequence of drought occurrence through the hydrological cycle and the impacts that emanate thereof. The latter impacts can affect the social aspect (this is communities' comfort and livelihoods), the environmental aspect (reduced water levels leading to loss of aquatic species, loss of biodiversity) and the economy (poor agricultural returns as a result of poor yields).

There are four main types of droughts as described by Zoljoodi and Didevarasl (2013). The four types of drought are: the hydrological, meteorological, agricultural and socio-economic droughts. The propagation of hydrological and agricultural drought originates from meteorological droughts, which develop from changing phenomena within the hydrological cycle. The lack of precipitation combined with higher evaporation rates propagates through the hydrological cycle from its origin as a meteorological drought into soil moisture depletion to the point where crops or terrestrial ecosystems are impacted, and eventually into a hydrological drought (Mishra & Singh 2010; Tallaksen & Van Lanen 2004; Wilhite 2000).

Drought and tourism

Tourism is a critical economic sector with mounting evidence linking economic losses to drought, even though the connection is minimally studied or systematically documented (Thomas et al. 2013). In fact, few studies have been conducted relating drought and tourism (Faulkner 2001; Ritchie 2008; Wilhelmi, Hayes & Thomas 2008 in Thomas, Wilhelmi & Hayes 2006). This is particularly relevant as droughts are common in nearly all parts of the globe, with varying frequency, duration and intensity. Their impacts are becoming increasingly complex (Wilhite, Svoboda & Hayes 2007), emerging from a multifaceted interaction between demands for water by humans, animals and the physical availability of water (Hayes, Wilhelmi & Knutson 2004; Wilhelmi & Wilhite 2002).

According to Wilhite and Glantz (1985), the tourism sector is most sensitive to hydrological and socio-economic droughts and is a highly responsive and flexible industry, adapting to demand for new destinations, activities and markets. It is also volatile and sensitive to economic, social, ecological and technological changes. The tourism industry is also particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change (Becken 2010). Climate change shapes the marketing of many destinations. It shapes tourists' expectations, experience and memories, which in-turn affect whether people return and where they go next.

Because of its nature of sensitivity, tourism is particularly vulnerable to increases in occurrence of extreme events such as droughts and can at a single destination adversely affect the entire circuit. Drought has direct and indirect impacts on tourism and can span all seasons. The most obvious are reductions in water dependent activities, such as boating, rafting, canoeing and fishing, resulting from lower water levels, as well as from shortened or shifted seasons (Ding, Hayes & Widhalm 2011). Water restrictions can also pose distinct challenges to water-reliant recreation. Intangible relationships are more difficult to quantify and link to drought, such as decreased visitation, cancellations of hotel stays or a reduction in booked holidays (Schneckenburger & Aukerman 2002). A healthy tourism sector is vital for overall social and economic strength in communities and regions, particularly in places where tourism makes up a significant portion of the overall economy. Consequently, systematic and consistent assessments and evaluation of drought impacts, along with direct inclusion in drought management strategies are fundamentally necessary, although thus far not commonly conducted for tourism (Wilhelmi et al. 2008). Currently, the KNP has many strategies including good working relationship with its upstream neighbours, which means that even during dry times, water is being let through to serve the KNP at the bottom end of the river catchments (Van Vuuren 2016).

Tourism and recreation activities do not take place in a vacuum and as such interact with many other sectors. As has already been mentioned, many of the outdoor recreation activities are dependent on the availability of water in large quantities. As the area becomes drier and experiences more drought conditions, recreational water users will be competing with farmers and industry for that water resource (Wall 1998). This holds the potential for conflicts among users for limited supplies of good quality water. Other resource conflicts that can arise are, for example, between recreationists and forestry, mining and commercial fishing industries (Wittrock, Baird & Wheaton 1992; Wittrock & Wheaton 1992).

The Kruger National Park

The Kruger National Park was established in 1927. Over the past decades, the park has grown both in terms of infrastructure and in the number of tourists it attracts each year. The park is situated in the north-eastern part of South Africa (23.9884° S, 31.5547° E) and is one of Africa's largest game reserves. It covers an area of 19 485 km 2 , as shown in Figure 2 . The climate of the KNP is mostly semi-arid with mean annual temperature and precipitation of 22 °C and 550 mm/annum, respectively, and an average potential evaporation of 7 mm/day (Du Toit, Rogers & Biggs 2003). Its high density of game includes the Big 5: lions, leopards, rhinos, elephants and buffalos. Hundreds of other mammals make their home here, as do diverse bird species such as vultures, eagles and storks. Mountains, bush plains and tropical forests are all part of the landscape within the park.

South African National Parks (SANParks) does not only contribute to South Africa's nature conservation but it also has a positive influence on the country's economy. The tourism industry consists of a number of different but interlinked service industries, particularly accommodation and catering, food processing and beverages, transport, as well as entertainment and other support services (Paton 1985). The KNP is the single largest and most significant tourism product in the Limpopo and Mpumalanga provinces and spending by visitors within the park represents a 5.72% estimate of the total value of tourism spending in the province. The total number of people directly employed in the tourism industry in Limpopo is 32 888, excluding the KNP (Saayman, Slabbert & Saayman 2002). Together with the KNP, this amounts to 7.21% of the total employment in the Mpumalanga province, which is higher than the employment in the electricity, construction and finance industries in the province. If the spending information from the KNP is compared to that of other South African Parks (Saayman et al. 2002), the KNP exceeds that of any other park, as does the availability of various products. Therefore, from a park development point of view, it is very important to create an environment for tourists to spend. This will also contribute to the economic sustainability of the KNP.

Methodology

Data requirements

Rainfall data for a period of 30 years (1980-2010) and tourist statistic data over a period of 52 years (1963-2015) were obtained from SANParks. Rainfall data were used to determine the drought years in the KNP while tourist data (total number of tourists, international tourists and local tourist) were used to determine the frequency of both local and international visitors to the KNP. The choice of 30 years rainfall was based on the fact that this study is focused on assessing the impacts of long-term change of the climate on the tourism industry. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) recommended a study period of not less than 30 years as ideal, while studying long-term climate change. Drought years were determined using the SPI for five stations (Letaba, Shingwedzi, Skukuza, Satara and Phunda Maria) within the KNP. SPI has been widely used in drought assessment and monitoring (Rouault & Richard 2003; Türke ş & Tatl 2009; Vicente-Serrano 2006; Wu et al. 2005).

Determination of drought years

The Standardised Precipitation Index was used to quantify rainfall deficit within the KNP as a representative of drought condition. The standardisation procedure transforms rainfall data to come up with standardised anomalies. The advantage of using the standardisation procedure is that it aids in discerning normal and typical values and is symmetrical for the occurrence of wet and dry events (Sutton & Kempi 1993). The data were standardised using the formula as defined by Goddard and Melville (1996) in Equation 1:

Determination of correlation between drought and tourist arrivals

This study employed statistical correlation of climatic and the tourist arrival data to achieve the objective of the study. The linear relationship between two continuous quantities is often assessed in terms of Pearson's Correlation Coefficient (PCC) (Marzban et al. 2013). PCC is a statistical measure of the strength of a linear relationship between two variables and is denoted by r . A value of 0 denotes no linear correlation, while a value closer to 1 or − 1 resembles a stronger positive or negative linear correlation. The PCC for this study will be determined using Equation 2:

where n is the number of occurrences, x is the tourist population and y is the drought years. The r was then converted to R 2 for further analysis of the correlation between the change in tourist arrivals and the computed SPI.

Tourist arrivals at Kruger National Park between 1963 and 2015

Figure 3 illustrates the state of KNP tourist arrivals over 52 years (1963-2015). The analysis depicts the number of both domestic and international visitors. It is evident from the figure that more South Africans are visiting the park than international visitors; however, the local and international visitors are showing an increasing trend under the period considered in this study. A 5-year moving average was fitted to the total number of tourist arrival data (as can be seen in Figure 3 ). This was done to highlight any significant changes in the tourist arrival trends to the KNP. It also provided valuable insights into the trends of the past and presents a foundation for predicting future trends. The fitted 5-year moving average trendline shows an exponentially increasing trend of tourist arrivals within the park.

Over the years the KNP has experienced both positive and negative changes in terms of the number of visitors received year on year. The negative and positive changes can be either as a result of social change, park infrastructure development, or ecological and environmental changes. Buckley and Klemm (1993) indicated that some factors that may affect tourism in a region include, but are not limited to, administrative structures of a region, terrorism, weather conditions and civil unrest. A positive change was 18.3% in the 1968/1969 financial year; this was attributed to the Lower Sabie Camp remaining open for the first time during the summer months. In the 2000/2001 financial year, the park witnessed a negative setback of 10.5% change in the number of visitors who visited the park. This was probably as a result of major floods that struck southern Africa in the year 2000 and forced many camps to be closed for extended period of time.

Analysis of drought years in the Kruger National Park

The analysis of drought year's frequency for this study was achieved through the standardised procedure as outlined in this section. Figure 4 is the computed SPI for the Letaba (LET_SPI), Shingwedzi (SHI_SPI), Skukuza (SKZ_SPI), Satara (SAT_SPI) and Phunda Maria (PUN_SPI) rainfall stations. The figure shows the range of SPI values in the study area ranging from − 3 to +4 (SHI_SPI and SKZ_SPI), − 2 to +2.5 (LET_SPI), − 2.5 to +2 (LET_SPI) and − 3 to +4 (PUN_SPI).

Stations SHI, SKZ and PUN depicted 17 drought years, LET depicted 19 drought years, while SAT depicted 15 drought years of the 31 years recorded. That is 54.84%, 61.29% and 48.39% of drought occurrence in the respective stations in the KNP, respectively. The latter is an indication that drought is more prevalent in the region. Throughout the 20th century, droughts have occurred all over South Africa with great regularity (Vogel 1995). The lowest SPI for LET, SHI, SKZ, PUN and SAT was − 1.57, − 1.79, − 1.44, − 1.79 and − 2.10, respectively. The latter was experienced in 1983/1984 (PUN), 2002/2003 (LET, SHI and SAT) and 2003/2004 (SKZ) hydrological years.

Mason and Tyson (2000) indicated that major drought years in South Africa occurred in 1991/1992, 1997/1998 and 2001/2002 hydrological years. The study by Mason and Tyson (2000) is in agreement with the results of this study as the major dry year computed was in 1991/1992. Glantz, Betsill and Crandall (1997) and Vogel, Laing and Monnik (2000) reported that the 1991/92 drought as one of the worst recent droughts on record in the country because of the far-reaching impacts felt through all sectors of society. Other significant drought years that were observed from the analysis included the 1982/1983, 1983/1984, 1993/1994, 2004/2005 and 2011/2012 hydrological years. FAO (2004) reported four major droughts in the Southern Africa Development Community, notably the 1982/1983, 1987/1988, 1991/1992 and 1993/1994 hydrological years. Although the major drought (lowest SPI value) for the selected stations is not falling within the major drought years reported by FAO (2004), Glantz et al. (1997), Mason and Tyson (2000) and Vogel et al. (2000), the KNP still experienced drought within those major drought years (see Table 2 ). Of the eight major droughts reported in southern Africa, seven were experienced in the SHI station of the KNP, while SKZ and SAT experienced four and PUN and LET experienced five drought years each.

Correlation between tourist arrivals and the computed Standardised Precipitation Index

Figure 5 illustrates the correlation between the percentage of change of tourists to KNP and the drought years given by the computed SPI. This can be noted from the figure evidently the year to year fluctuations on both the computed SPI and the percentage of tourist change. From the analysis, the KNP experience negative changes in 1981/1982, 1984/1985, 1990/1991, 1991/1992, 1992/1993, 1997/1998, 1998/1999, 1999/2000, 2003/2004, 2004/2005, 2007/2008 and 2009/2010. 1982/1983, 1983/1984, 1986/1987, 1988/1989, 1989/1990, 1991/1992, 1992/1993, 1993/1994, 1994/1995, 1997/1998, 2002/2003, 2003/2004, 2005/2006, 2007/2008, 2008/2009, 2009/2010 and 2010/2011 were identified as drought years in the KNP as per the five stations' mean-computed SPI.

Of the 31 years considered in the study, 5 years (19.36%) of the drought years corresponded to the percentage of negative change of tourist arrivals in the KNP. The coefficient of determination ( R 2 ; the squared correlation coefficient) was found to be 0.02. R 2 ranges from 0 to 1, with higher values indicating less error variance, and typically values greater than 0.5 are considered acceptable (Santhi et al. 2001; Van Liew, Arnold & Garbrecht 2003). Therefore, the R 2 obtained in this study is low (< 0.5) indicating an insignificant statistical correlation between the SPI and the percentage of change in tourist arrivals to the KNP. The correlation results obtained in this study are in agreement with that of Vido et al. (2016). The former study obtained varying correlation (0.1, 0.05, 0.06 and 0.01) for different SPI time scales while correlating SPI with physiological characteristics.

Although a low correlation is observed between drought years and tourist arrivals, there are some drought years that are correlating to the negative change in tourist arrivals over the park. For instance, the steep decline in the number of visitors in 1984/1985 may not only be attributed to the social unrest the country experienced during that period, but also there were two consecutive droughts (1982/1983 and 1983/1984) prior to the unrest and could also have contributed to the decrease in the number of tourist arrivals to the KNP. South Africa hosted the Soccer World Cup in 2010, and as a result, the country expected to have a high number of international tourists in the entire country (FIFA.com 2010). This, however, was not the case for the KNP, as the park reported a negative change in terms of the percentage of tourist arrivals in 2010/2011. Similar to the case of the decline in 1984/1985, there were two consecutive droughts prior to 2010 (2007/2008 and 2008/2009), while 2010 was also classified as a drought year in the park as per the computed SPI. Drought has also been identified as one of the natural disasters apart from floods that negatively impact the tourism industry (South African Weather Service [SAWS], 2008 in Shaw, Saayman & Saayman 2012). Therefore, it is further emphasised that the tourism industry is a fragile industry similar to any other industry and is prone to changes in environmental, social and economic states of a country.

This study determined the relationship between tourist arrivals and drought in the KNP in north-eastern part of South Africa. Historical rainfall data from SAWS were used to determine drought years in the park, while historical tourist arrival data obtained from SANParks were used to determine the frequency of tourist arrivals to the park. The results showed that KNP experienced both negative and positive tourist arrivals, although the former was the case, tourist arrivals showed an increasing trend. The drought years obtained in this study were in agreement with those reported by FAO (2004), Glantz et al. (1997), Mason and Tyson (2000) and Vogel et al. (2000) in the region the study area is located. The correlation between drought and tourist arrivals in the KNP showed that 19.36% of the drought years corresponded to negative change of tourist arrivals in the park. Although a low correlation is observed, there are years in the negative change that coincided with drought years experienced within the park. South Africa hosted the soccer world cup in 2010, and as a result, the country expected to have a high number of tourists in the entire country. The former, however, was not the case for the KNP as the park reported a negative change in terms of the percentage of tourist arrivals in 2010/2011. Therefore, this study concludes that drought is one of the natural disasters apart from floods that negatively impact the tourism industry.

Acknowledgements

The authors acknowledge SAWS and SANParks for providing data used in this study.

Competing interests

The authors declare that they have no financial or personal relationships which may have inappropriately influenced them in writing this article.

Authors' contributions

F.I.M. conceptualised the idea, conducted quality control of data analysis and coordinated the article writing. N.N.T. provided leadership in harmonising drought and tourism concepts and quality control of the final article draft, while Z.N. assisted with collecting literature used in the study, as well as drafting the introduction of the article.

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Received: 11 Apr. 2017 Accepted: 15 June 2017 Published: 27 July 2017