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• AN ACCUMULATION OF CATASTROPHE: A POLITICAL ECONOMY OF WILDFIRE IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES  Dockstader, Sue ( University of Oregon , 2024-03-25 ) This dissertation is an environmental sociological study of wildland fire in what is now the western United States. It examines wildfire management from roughly the 1900s to the present time employing a Marxist historical ...
• Managing Life's Future: Species Essentialism and Evolutionary Normativity in Conservation Policy, Practice, and Imaginaries  Maggiulli, Katrina ( University of Oregon , 2024-01-10 ) Folk essentialist and normative understandings of species are not only prevalent in popular layperson communities, but also end up undergirding United States conservation policy and practice due to the simplistic clarity ...
• Unsettled Ecologies: Alienated Species, Indigenous Restoration, and U.S. Empire in a Time of Climate Chaos  Fink, Lisa ( University of Oregon , 2024-01-10 ) This dissertation traces environmental thinking about invasive species from Western-colonial, diasporic settlers of color, and Indigenous perspectives within U.S. settler colonialism. Considering environmental discourses ...
• Futuremaking in a Disaster Zone: Everyday Climate Change Adaptation amongst Quechua Women in the Peruvian Cordillera Blanca  Moulton, Holly ( University of Oregon , 2024-01-10 ) Indigenous women in Peru are often labeled “triply vulnerable” to climate change due to race, gender, and economic marginalization. Despite Peru’s focus on gender, Indigeneity, and intersectionality in national adaptation ...
• Land Acts: Land's Agency in American Literature, Law, and History from the Colonial Period to Removal  Keeler, Kyle ( University of Oregon , 2024-01-10 ) This dissertation examines land’s agency and relationships to land in the places now known as the United States as these relationships appear in literature and law from early colonization to the removal period. Land Acts ...
• PALEOTEMPERATURE, VEGETATION CHANGE, FIRE HISTORY, AND LAKE PRODUCTIVITY FOR THE LAST 14,500 YEARS AT GOLD LAKE, PACIFIC NORTHWEST, USA  Baig, Jamila ( University of Oregon , 2024-01-09 ) The postglacial history of vegetation, wildfire, and climate in the Cascade Range (Oregon) is only partly understood. This study uses high-resolution analysis from a 13-meter, 14,500-year sediment core from Gold Lake to ...
• On Western Juniper Climate Relations  Reis, Schyler ( University of Oregon , 2022-10-26 ) Western juniper woodlands are highly sensitive to climate in terms of tree-ring growth, seedling establishment and range distribution. Understanding the dynamics of western juniper woodlands to changes in precipitation, ...
• Stories We Tell, Stories We Eat: Mexican Foodways, Cultural Identity, and Ideological Struggle in Netflix’s Taco Chronicles  Sanchez, Bela ( University of Oregon , 2022-10-26 ) Food is a biological necessity imbued with numerous social, cultural, and economic implications for identity production and everyday meaning-making. Food television is a unique medium for the meanings of food and foodways ...
• Soil Nutrient Additions Shift Orthopteran Herbivory and Invertebrate Community Composition  Altmire, Gabriella ( University of Oregon , 2022-10-26 ) Anthropogenic alterations to global pools of nitrogen and phosphorus are driving declines in plant diversity across grasslands. As such, concern over biodiversity loss has precipitated a host of studies investigating how ...
• Multispecies Memoir: Self, Genre, and Species Justice in Contemporary Culture  Otjen, Nathaniel ( University of Oregon , 2022-10-04 ) Liberal humanism articulates an individual, rational, autonomous, universal, and singularly human subject that possesses various rights and freedoms. Although the imagined subject at the heart of liberal humanist philosophy ...
• Understanding How Changes in Disturbance Regimes and Long-Term Climate Shape Ecosystem and Landscape Structure and Function  Wright, Jamie ( University of Oregon , 2022-10-04 ) Long-term and anthropic climatic change intersecting with disturbances alters ecosystem structure and function across spatiotemporal scales. Quantifying ecosystem responses can be convoluted, therefore utilizing multiproxy ...
• Ikpíkyav (To Fix Again): Drawing From Karuk World Renewal To Contest Settler Discourses Of Vulnerability  Vinyeta, Kirsten ( University of Oregon , 2022-10-04 ) The Klamath River Basin of Northern California has historically been replete with fire-adapted ecosystems and Indigenous communities. For the Karuk Tribe, fire has been an indispensable tool for both spiritual practice and ...
• Grassland Restoration in Heterogeneous, Changing, and Human Dominated Systems  Brambila, Alejandro ( University of Oregon , 2022-10-04 ) Ecological restoration is a powerful tool to promote biodiversity and ecosystem function. Understanding underlying system variability and directional change can help predict outcomes of restoration interventions. Spatial ...
• Restoring What? And for Whom? Listening to Karuk Ecocultural Revitalization Practitioners and Uncovering Settler Logics in Ecological Restoration.  Worl, Sara ( University of Oregon , 2022-05-10 ) What does it mean to restore a landscape degraded by settler colonialism? How might a well intentionedprocess like ecological restoration end up causing harm from underlying settler colonial logics? This thesis explores ...
• Instigating Communities of Solidarity: An Exploration of Participatory, Informal, Temporary Urbanisms  Meier, Briana ( University of Oregon , 2021-11-23 ) This dissertationexamines the potential for participatory, informal urbanisms to buildcollaborative relations across ontological, cultural, and political difference. This research contributes to thefield of urban, environmental ...
• The Holy Oak School of Art and Ecology: A Proposal for Arts-Based Environmental Education Programming  Best, Krysta ( University of Oregon , 2021-11-23 ) The following is a proposal for arts-based environmental education programming in elementary schools, after-school programs, and day-camp programs, entitled the Holy School of Art and Ecology. Ecophenomenological, arts-based ...
• Settler Colonial Listening and the Silence of Wilderness in the Boundary Waters Canoe Area  Hilgren, Bailey ( University of Oregon , 2021-11-23 ) The Boundary Waters Canoe Area soundscape in northern Minnesota has a long and contested history but is most often characterized today as a pristine and distinctly silent wilderness. This thesis traces the construction and ...
• Species Dynamics and Restoration in Rare Serpentine Grasslands under Global Change  Hernandez, Eliza ( University of Oregon , 2021-11-23 ) Conserving rare serpentine grasslands is a challenge with ongoing nitrogen deposition. Nutrient-poor patches are fertilized by nitrogen-rich smog and exotic grasses can rapidly spread. Water resources are also being altered ...
• Place-making and Place-taking: An Analysis of Green Gentrification in Atlanta Georgia  Okotie-Oyekan, Aimée ( University of Oregon , 2021-11-23 ) Despite the benefits of urban greenspace, Atlanta’s Westside Park is causing gentrification and displacement pressures in Grove Park, a low-income African-American community in northwest Atlanta, Georgia. This study used ...
• Prairie Plant Responses to Climate Change in the Pacific Northwest  Reed, Paul ( University of Oregon , 2021-09-13 ) Understanding how plants respond to climate change is of paramount importance since their responses can affect ecosystem functions and patterns of biodiversity. At the population level, climate change may alter phenology ...

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Home > CNS > ECO > Environmental Conservation Masters Theses Collection

Environmental Conservation Masters Theses Collection

Theses from 2024 2024.

Effects of Habitat, Density, and Climate on Moose and Winter Tick Ecology in the northeastern U.S. , Juliana Berube, Environmental Conservation

Adaptive Silviculture for Wildlife: Supporting Forest Biodiversity Through Climate Adaptation , Jahiya Clark, Environmental Conservation

Comparing Likelihood of Tree Failure Assessments Using Different Assessment Techniques , Ari Okun, Environmental Conservation

Use of Unoccupied Aerial Vehicle (Drones) Based Remote Sensing to Model Platform Topography and Identify Human-made Earthen Barriers in Salt Marshes , Joshua J. Ward, Environmental Conservation

Theses from 2023 2023

Modeling the Effects of Forest Management Practices on Ecohydrologic Processes in the Antalya River Watershed of Turkey , Hilal Arslan, Environmental Conservation

HYDRO-SOCIAL TERRITORIES AND OIL PALM PLANTATIONS: INDIGENOUS PEOPLE, AGRIBUSINESS, AND SAFE WATER ACCESS UNDER POWER RELATIONS IN KAIS, WEST PAPUA, INDONESIA , Briantama Asmara, Environmental Conservation

Evaluation of Acoustic Telemetry Array Performance and Fine- Scale and Broad-Scale Spatial Movement Patterns for Coral Reef Species in Culebra, Puerto Rico , Roxann Cormier, Environmental Conservation

Improving Energy Efficiency of School Buildings with Solar-Assisted Cooling for the Maldives , Ahmed Fathhee, Environmental Conservation

Pine Barrens Wildlife Management: Exploring the Impact of a Stressor and Active Management on Two Taxa at Camp Edwards , Andrew B. Gordon Jr, Environmental Conservation

Factors Affecting the Distribution of Malayan Sun Bear in Htamanthi Wildlife Sanctuary, Northern Myanmar , Min Hein Htike, Environmental Conservation

A Multi-Regional Assessment of Eastern Whip-poor-will (Antrostomus vociferus) Occupancy in Managed and Unmanaged Forests Using Autonomous Recording Units , Jeffery T. Larkin, Environmental Conservation

Climate Change Attitudes of United States Family Forest Owners and their Influence on Forest Management Practices , Logan Miller, Environmental Conservation

The Relative Effects of Functional Diversity and Structural Complexity on Carbon Dynamics in Late-Successional, Northeastern Mixed Hardwood Forests , Samantha Myers, Environmental Conservation

Factors influencing the occurrence and spread of aquatic invasive species in watershed systems , Hazel M. Ortiz, Environmental Conservation

PARTICIPATORY WETLAND GOVERNANCE IN RAMSAR – ASSESSING LEVEL OF PARTICIPATION IN INDIA , Seema Ravandale, Environmental Conservation

A REVIEW AND ANALYSIS OF THE LINKED DECISIONS IN THE CONFISCATION OF ILLEGALLY TRADED TURTLES , Desiree Smith, Environmental Conservation

Effect of Alliaria petiolata management on post-eradication seed bank dynamics , Chloe Thompson, Environmental Conservation

Bog Turtle (Glyptemys muhlenbergii) Population Dynamics and Response to Habitat Management in Massachusetts , Julia Vineyard, Environmental Conservation

Theses from 2022 2022

Assessment of the Economic and Ecosystem Service Contributions of USDA Forest Service Landowner Assistance Programs in the Conterminous United States , Jacqueline S. Dias, Environmental Conservation

Exploring Urban Forestry Non-Governmental Organizations in the Temperate Forest Region of the United States , Alexander J. Elton, Environmental Conservation

Songbird-mediated Insect Pest Control in Low Intensity New England Agriculture , Samuel J. Mayne, Environmental Conservation

Perception and Value Assessment of Ecosystem Services in Rural and Urban Regions in Ecuador , Roberto S. Navarrete Arias, Environmental Conservation

Identifying New Invasives In The Face Of Climate Change: A Focus On Sleeper Populations , Ayodelé C. O'Uhuru, Environmental Conservation

A Tipping Point in the Ecuadorian Amazon Rainforest: Current and Future Land-Use and Climate Change Trends , Alula Shields, Environmental Conservation

Dynamics of Water Supply and Demand in the Bandama River Watershed of Cote d'Ivoire , Sarah Alima Traore, Environmental Conservation

Theses from 2021 2021

Applying Ecological Theory to Amphibian Populations to Determine if Wood Frogs (Lithobates sylvaticus) are Ideal and Free when Selecting Breeding Habitat , Taylor M. Braunagel, Environmental Conservation

Assessing the Impacts to Society Associated with the Use of Alternative Ammunition for Hunting on National Wildlife Refuges , Christopher Cahill, Environmental Conservation

Evaluation of Environmental Factors Influencing American Marten Distribution and Density in New Hampshire , Donovan Drummey, Environmental Conservation

Can Volunteers Learn to Prune Trees? , Ryan W. Fawcett, Environmental Conservation

The Efficacy of Habitat Conservation Assistance Programs for Family Forest Owners in Vermont , Margaret E. Harrington, Environmental Conservation

The Role of Vegetative Cover in Enhancing Resilience to Climate Change and Improving Public Health , Anastasia D. Ivanova, Environmental Conservation

Assessing the Structure and Function of Utility Forests in Massachusetts , Ryan Suttle, Environmental Conservation

Factors Influencing Stopover and Movement of Migratory Songbirds within the Silvio O. Conte National Fish and Wildlife Refuge , Jessica Tatten, Environmental Conservation

Patterns and mechanisms of intraspecific trait variation across thermal gradients in a marine gastropod , Andrew R. Villeneuve, Environmental Conservation

Theses from 2020 2020

Habitat Associations of Priority Bird Species and Conservation Value on Small, Diversified Farms in New England , Isabel Brofsky, Environmental Conservation

Autonomous Recording Units as an Alternative Method for Monitoring Songbirds , Lindsay Clough, Environmental Conservation

Impact of Predators on Hemlock Woolly Adelgid (Hemiptera: Adelgidae) in the Eastern and Western United States , Ryan Crandall, Environmental Conservation

New England’s Underutilized Seafood Species: Defining And Exploring Marketplace Potential In A Changing Climate , Amanda Davis, Environmental Conservation

Improving Growth and Survival of Cultured Yellow Lampmussel (Lampsilis cariosa) for Restoring Populations , Virginia Martell, Environmental Conservation

From Intentional Awareness to Environmental Action: The Relationship Between Mindfulness and Pro-Environmental Behaviors , Nischal Neupane, Environmental Conservation

The Ecological Value of Spruce Plantations in Massachusetts , Calvin Ritter, Environmental Conservation

In-vitro Propagation and Fish Assessments to Inform Restoration of Dwarf Wedgemussel (Alasmidonta Heterodon) , Jennifer Ryan, Environmental Conservation

Theses from 2019 2019

Hydrologic Structure and Function of Vernal Pools in South Deerfield, Massachusetts , Charlotte Axthelm, Environmental Conservation

Ecological and Economic Implications of Establishing Quercus spp. in the Urban Environment , Tierney Bocsi, Environmental Conservation

Garlic Mustard (Alliaria petiolata) Management Effectiveness and Plant Community Response , Erin Coates-Connor, Environmental Conservation

Defining and Addressing Interconnected Goals in Groundwater Management Planning Across the USA , Allison Gage, Environmental Conservation

Root-Driven Weathering Impacts on Mineral-Organic Associations Over Pedogenic Time Scales , Mariela Garcia Arredondo, Environmental Conservation

Using Visual Media to Empower Citizen Scientists: A Case Study of the Outsmart App , Megan E. Kierstead, Environmental Conservation

Urban Biodiversity Experience and Exposure: Intervention and Inequality at the Local and Global Scale , Evan Kuras, Environmental Conservation

Arboriculture Safety Around The World , Jamie Lim, Environmental Conservation

Ecological Considerations and Application of Urban Tree Selection in Massachusetts , Ashley McElhinney, Environmental Conservation

The Women's Action: Participation through Resistance , Michael Roberts, Environmental Conservation

Eastern Whip-poor-will Habitat Associations in Fort Drum, NY , Kimberly Spiller, Environmental Conservation

The Role of International River Basin Organizations in Facilitating Science Use in Policy , Kelsey Wentling, Environmental Conservation

An Examination of Tern Diet in a Changing Gulf of Maine , Keenan Yakola, Environmental Conservation

Theses from 2018 2018

Mapping Sandbars in the Connecticut River Watershed through Aerial Images for Floodplain Conservation , Bogumila Backiel, Environmental Conservation

You Must Estimate Before You Indicate: Design and Model-Based Methods for Evaluating Utility of a Candidate Forest Indicator Species , Jillian Fleming, Environmental Conservation

Performance of Floristic Quality Assessment in Massachusetts Forested Wetlands , Carolyn Gorss, Environmental Conservation

The Impact of Intraspecific Density on Garlic Mustard Sinigrin Concentration , Mercedes Harris, Environmental Conservation

Plants, Parasites, and Pollinators: The Effects of Medicinal Pollens on a Common Gut Parasite in Bumble Bees , George LoCascio, Environmental Conservation

Human and Climate Change Influences on Black (Diceros bicornis) and White (Ceratotherium simum) Rhinos in Southern Africa , Hlelolwenkhosi S. Mamba, Environmental Conservation

Watershed-Scale Modeling for Water Resource Sustainability in the Tuul River Basin of Mongolia , Javzansuren Norvanchig, Environmental Conservation

Impacts of Small, Surface-Release Dams on Stream Temperature and Dissolved Oxygen in Massachusetts , Peter Zaidel, Environmental Conservation

Theses from 2017 2017

Accounting For Biotic Variability In Streams With Low Levels of Impervious Cover: The Role of Reach- and Watershed-Scale Factors , Catherine Bentsen, Environmental Conservation

Juvenile River Herring in Freshwater Lakes: Sampling Approaches for Evaluating Growth and Survival , Matthew T. Devine, Environmental Conservation

DIRECT AND INDIRECT EFFECTS OF CLIMATE ON BIRD ABUNDANCE ALONG ELEVATION GRADIENTS IN THE NORTHERN APPALACHIANS , Timothy Duclos, Environmental Conservation

EVALUATION OF THE RECREATIONAL CATCH-AND-RELEASE FISHERY FOR GOLDEN DORADO SALMINUS BRASILIENSIS IN SALTA, ARGENTINA: IMPLICATIONS FOR CONSERVATION AND MANAGEMENT , Tyler Gagne, Environmental Conservation

Botswana’s Elephant-Back Safari Industry – Stress-Response in Working African Elephants and Analysis of their Post-Release Movements , Tanya Lama, Environmental Conservation

Factors Influencing Shrubland Bird and Native Bee Communities in Forest Openings , H. Patrick Roberts, Environmental Conservation

A Mixed-methods Study on Female Landowner Estate Planning Objectives , rebekah zimmerer, Environmental Conservation

Theses from 2016 2016

Factors Influencing Household Outdoor Residential Water Use Decisions in Suburban Boston (USA) , Emily E. Argo, Environmental Conservation

Understory Plant Community Structure in Forests Invaded by Garlic Mustard (Alliaria petiolata) , Jason Aylward, Environmental Conservation

Factors Affecting Habitat Quality for Wintering Wood Thrushes in a Coffee Growing Region in Honduras , Brett A. Bailey, Environmental Conservation

Invasive Species Occurrence Frequency is not a Suitable Proxy for Abundance in the Northeast , Tyler J. Cross, Environmental Conservation

Population Genetic Analysis of Atlantic Horseshoe Crabs (Limulus polyphemus) in Coastal Massachusetts. , Katherine T. Johnson, Environmental Conservation

Modeling Historical and Future Range of Variability Scenarios in the Yuba River Watershed, Tahoe National Forest, California , Maritza Mallek, Environmental Conservation

The Life History Characteristics, Growth, and Mortality of Juvenile Alewife, Alosa pseudoharengus, in Coastal Massachusetts , Julianne Rosset, Environmental Conservation

Specific Phosphate Sorption Mechanisms of Unaltered and Altered Biochar , Kathryn D. Szerlag, Environmental Conservation

Trophic Relationships Among Caribou Calf Predators in Newfoundland , Chris Zieminski, Environmental Conservation

Theses from 2015 2015

Ant (Hymenoptera: Formicidae) Assemblages in Three New York Pine Barrens and the Impacts of Hiking Trails , Grace W. Barber, Environmental Conservation

Niche-Based Modeling of Japanese Stiltgrass (Microstegium vimineum) Using Presence-Only Information , Nathan Bush, Environmental Conservation

Assessing Mammal and Bird Biodiversity and Habitat Occupancy of Tiger Prey in the Hukaung Valley of Northern Myanmar , Hla Naing, Environmental Conservation

Generating Best Management Practices for Avian Conservation in a Land-Sparing Agriculture System, and the Habitat-Specific Survival of a Priority Migrant , Jeffrey D. Ritterson, Environmental Conservation

Experimental Test of Genetic Rescue in Isolated Populations of Brook Trout , Zachary L. Robinson, Environmental Conservation

UNDERSTANDING STAKEHOLDERS PERCEPTION TOWARDS HUMAN-WILDLIFE INTERACTION AND CONFLICT IN A TIGER LANDSCAPE-COMPLEX OF INDIA , Ronak T. Sripal, Environmental Conservation

Impacts of Land Cover and Climate Change on Water Resources in Suasco River Watershed , Ammara Talib, Environmental Conservation

Theses from 2014 2014

A Comparison of American, Canadian, and European Home Energy Performance in Heating Dominated – Moist Climates Based on Building Codes , Stephanie M. Berkland, Environmental Conservation

Spatio-Temporal Factors Affecting Human-Black Bear Interactions in Great Smoky Mountains National Park , Nathan Buckhout, Environmental Conservation

Estimating the Effective Number of Breeders of Brook Trout, Salvelinus fontinalis, Over Multiple Generations in Two Stream Systems , Matthew R. Cembrola, Environmental Conservation

An Assessment of Environmental Dna as a Tool to Detect Fish Species in Headwater Streams , Stephen F. Jane, Environmental Conservation

Assessing Wild Canid Distribution Using Camera Traps in the Pioneer Valley of Western Massachusetts , Eric G. LeFlore, Environmental Conservation

Quantifying the Effect of Passive Solar Design in Traditional New England Architecture , Peter Levy, Environmental Conservation

Ecology and Conservation of Endangered Species in Sumatra: Smaller Cats and the Sumatran Rhinoceros (Dicerorhinus Sumatrensis) As Case Studies , Wulan Pusparini, Environmental Conservation

The Cumulative Impacts of Climate Change and Land Use Change on Water Quantity and Quality in the Narragansett Bay Watershed , Evan R. Ross, Environmental Conservation

Patterns in Trash: Factors that Drive Municipal Solid Waste Recycling , Jared Starr, Environmental Conservation

Theses from 2013 2013

Greening the Building Code: an Analysis of Large Project Review Under Boston Zoning Code Articles 37 and 80 , Sandy J. Beauregard, Environmental Conservation

Vernal Pool Vegetation and Soil Patterns Along Hydrologic Gradients in Western Massachusetts , Kasie Collins, Environmental Conservation

Implementation of Aquaponics in Education: An Assessment of Challenges, Solutions and Success , Emily Rose Hart, Environmental Conservation

Aquatic Barrier Prioritization in New England Under Climate Change Scenarios Using Fish Habitat Quantity, Thermal Habitat Quality, Aquatic Organism Passage, and Infrastructure Sustainability , Alexandra C. Jospe, Environmental Conservation

The Energy Benefits of Trees: Investigating Shading, Microclimate and Wind Shielding Effects in Worcester and Springfield, Massachusetts , Emma L. Morzuch, Environmental Conservation

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• Published: 07 July 2022

Quantitative determination of environmental factors governing the snow melting: a geodetector case study in the central Tienshan Mountains

• Haixing Li 1 , 3 , 4 ,
• Jinrong Liu 1 , 3 , 4 ,
• Xuelei Lei 1 , 3 , 4 ,
• Yumeng Ju 1 , 3 , 4 ,
• Xiangxu Bu 1 , 3 , 4 &
• Hongxing Li 2  

Scientific Reports volume  12 , Article number:  11565 ( 2022 ) Cite this article

1072 Accesses

4 Citations

Metrics details

• Cryospheric science
• Environmental impact

Because of the distinctive vertical climate and topography gradients in the alpine region, the snow cover of the Tienshan Mountains possesses complex spatiotemporal heterogeneity, particularly during the melting process. Quantifying the environmental factors is therefore crucial to understanding the melting process and for predicting and managing snowmelt runoff. Herein, the snow cover area, grain size, and contamination extent were determined to characterize the detailed melting status based on surface reflectance data of MOD09A1 in the central Tienshan Mountains from 2013 to 2017. The environmental factors collected include relief (elevation, slope, and aspect); meteorology (surface air temperature, land surface temperature, solar radiation, and wind speed); and land surface vegetation. Analysis of the geodetector results indicated the following. (1) Patterns of changes in the overall dominant environmental variables were consistent for the pre-, mid-, and post-melting periods defined according to the decline of snow cover area over five years. (2) The overall major environmental factors were wind speed and radiation (pre-period), land surface temperature and elevation (mid-period), and elevation and land surface types (post-period), respectively. (3) Regional distinctions were detected of the dominant environmental factors. In the pre-melting period, the effects of solar radiation and wind speed were noticeable in the north and south regions, respectively. The effects of elevation, land surface temperature, and land cover types became more prominent in all regions during the mid- and post-melting periods. (4) Interaction between the major environmental factors was significantly enhanced on both the overall and regional scales, thus affecting the snow-melting process. Finally, the energy distribution mismatch resulted in the snowmelt. Multiple environmental factors substantially affect heat redistribution at different spatiotemporal scales, resulting in the snowmelt as a complex manifestation of the factors and their interactions. The findings highlight regional differences in various environmental factors of the melting process and offer a theoretical foundation for the melting process at various scales over multiple years.

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Introduction.

As one of the most active natural components and a crucial parameter of the cryosphere, the snow cover exerts a considerable effect on moisture and energy exchanges between the land surface and the atmosphere owing to its particular physical features (e.g., high emissivity, high albedo, large latent heat of melting, and low thermal conductivity) 1 , 2 . Because of large-scale airflow from north to south and from west to east, along with small-scale precipitation regimes, the Tienshan Mountain Range located in the central Eurasian continent has abundant snow accumulation 3 . With the large snow cover, this area serves as the “water tower” of Central Asia, which is the main water source for the nearby oasis and desert ecosystem 4 , 5 . However, the annual temperature variation in northwestern China constantly affects the snowfall regimes and runoff patterns supplied in spring and summer to this area 6 . The significant differences in altitudinal structure and land-use types, as well as the effects of radiation, precipitation gradients, forest belts, and soil moisture content complicate the spatiotemporal distribution of snow cover 7 , 8 . Thus, this area displays complex distribution patterns of snowpack types and diverse influence factors across climate zones, altitude belts, temperature and vegetation ecosystems, and eco-geographical zones 9 , 10 .

Numerous studies have demonstrated significant spatiotemporal difference in the environmental factors that affect snow accumulation and the melting process. These factors are generally distinguished by macro-scale factors such as climate change 2 , 11 and micro-scale factors such as relief (elevation, slope, and aspect), meteorology (temperature, radiation, and precipitation), and vegetation. For example, it has been confirmed that alterations in the Central Asian water balance are due to changes in macro-climate and human interaction, resulting in differences in the interannual phenological characteristics of snow cover on an intercontinental scale 12 . Macro-climate effects can also manifest in the form of microclimates that transform the local phenological characteristics of snow cover within subregions 13 , 14 , 15 .

While catchment-scale studies have determined topography to be the main environmental factor affecting snow accumulation and melting 16 , 17 , 18 , such altitude dependence is expressed as significant positive feedback between various snow phenology characteristics and altitude, resulting in distinct values of snowfall, snow depth, and snow cover duration in different altitude belts 1 , 18 .

The effect of local meteorological factors (such as precipitation, air temperature, and radiation) on the spatiotemporal snow cover distribution differs by altitude zone 19 , 20 , 21 . For example, decreased snowfall and increased rainfall and temperature have been identified as the primary reason for decreases in snow cover duration and snow water equivalent in the Tibetan Plateau 18 . Similar conclusions were reached for the Heihe River Basin 22 . In-field measurement results obtained there confirmed that radiation provided nearly all the energy for snow melting in high-altitude areas 23 , 24 .

The influence of land surface vegetation on snow accumulation and ablation is also noticeable. Different vegetation types characterized by varying evapotranspiration and water storage behaviors affect the density, water content, depth, and other snow parameters, determining the snow ablation characteristics 25 . This relationship between the spatiotemporal pattern of alpine vegetation phenology and snow cover dynamics is bidirectional 21 , 25 .

Altogether, the aforementioned conclusions indicate that under complex compound interactions between macro- and micro-scale factors, both the snow cover parameters and the environmental factors exhibit heterogeneity at different scales 4 , 19 . Therefore, accurately determining these environmental factors is crucial for understanding the regional hydrological processes and mechanisms of influence. Numerous studies that determine the dynamics of independent variables have been conducted by exploring spatiotemporal changes in snow parameters under different influencing factors, thereby indirectly highlighting key factors of snow accumulation or ablation at different temporal and spatial scales 26 , 27 . The classical statistical methods and spatial statistical models, such as principle component, multivariate analyses, geospatial probabilistic occurrence ratio and geographically weighted regression models, have been widely used to assess snow variations 24 , 28 , 29 , 30 , 31 . However, the number of variables considered in these models are limited, and the models cannot quantify the contribution of different environmental factors and they do not consider the multivariate collinearity problem.

The geodetector method 32 hypothesizes that a dependent variable will exhibit a similar spatial or temporal distribution to that of the correlated variables and can be used to diagnose interactions between the latter. Because of its tremendous capacity to use information regarding different types of influencing factors, this geospatial technique is extremely useful for identifying environmental factors of snow melting. The study area chosen for this work was the central Tienshan Mountain Range. A quantitative analysis of environmental factors governing the snow-melting was performed using a geodetector method by combining snow status information and multi-source variables from 2013 to 2017. To the best of our knowledge, the geodetector model has not yet been used to interpret snow cover variation dynamics or the related variables, which constitutes a novel contribution of the present study.

Study area and data source methodology

The study area is located in the central area of the Tianshan Mountains, in the heart of the Eurasian continent, within an area bounded by 83.57°E, 87.50°E, 42.41°N, and 44.28°N (Fig.  1 ). It stretches from the west–southwest to east–northeast and occupies approximately 538,000 km 2 , covering portions of the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region in China. The altitude ranges from 376 to 5082 m a.s.l., with some elevations exceeding 5000 m a.s.l. The land cover types include grassland (58.7%), barren and sparsely vegetated regions (32.8%), cropland (3.7%), forest (0.4%), urban (0.25%), and scrublands (0.03%).

Location of the study area. ( a , b ) show the location of study area within China and Tianshen mountains with the satellite image obtained from Baidu ©2022 DigitalGlobe, Technologies ( https://map.baidu.com/search/%E5%85%A8%E5%9B%BD/@12959219.599999992,4825334.641182318,5.33z/maptype%3DB_EARTH_MAP?querytype=s&da_src=shareurl&wd=%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD&c=224&src=0&pn=0&sug=0&l=18&b=(13432344.2131852,3651617.4721446065;13433629.447638426,3652204.281511593)&from=webmap&biz_forward=%7B%22scaler%22:1,%22styles%22:%22sl%22%7D&device_ratio=1 ). The red dots are the meteorological stations. ( c ) is the elevation map that obtained from Resource and Environment Science and Data Center ( https://www.resdc.cn/Default.aspx ). Map created in ArcMap 10.6 of the Environmental System Resource Institute, Inc. ( https://www.esri.com/software/arcgis/arcgis-for-desktop ). Boundaries made with free vector data provided by National Catalogue Service for Geographic Information ( https://www.webmap.cn/commres.do?method=dataDownload ).

This area is dominated by a typical temperate continental arid and semi-arid climate, which is characterized by temperature extremes in summer and winter. Within this area, the absolute maximum and minimum temperatures are 40 °C and 38 °C, respectively, with an annual average temperature of 6.2–7.8 °C. The annual accumulated temperature over 10 °C is 2400–3500 °C. At 3800 m above sea level, the air temperature gradually decreases with the elevation and stays below 0 °C year-round and above the snow line 33 . The surrounding deserts and dry areas reflect the characteristic aridity of the region. Majority precipitation falls on the windward western and northwestern slopes that are exposed to cold northerly and northwesterly air inflows, as well as moist westerly influxes from the North Atlantic. Precipitation amounts vary from 150–220 mm up to 600 mm 34 .

Data collection

Herein, two datasets were collected and used as independent and dependent variables: the snow cover index dataset representing the status of snowpack and the environmental factor dataset, including multi-source potential influencing factors (Table 1 ). The change in the snow- cover area is insignificant, especially early in the melting period and at the end of ablation. Thus, the de-cloud daily reflectance data were selected in our study to extract the slight variation of snow cover change. The snow cover index dataset was primarily obtained from the surface reflectance data from MOD09GA and the snow cover area (SCA) product from the MOD10A1 dataset. The 8-day synthetic SCA product from MOD10A2 was used to provide a long time-series and high-precision spatial snow distribution information. To reduce the effect of cloud on the inverse performance, the 8-day synthetic cloud-removing surface reflectance product from MOD09A1 was used to extract the snow state information.

To reduce the effect of clouds on surface temperature, we used the all-weather land surface temperature dataset (AWLSTD) produced by merging satellite thermal infrared and passive microwave observations 35 . This merging method was applied to MODIS and AMSR-E/AMSR2 data to produce a multi-year record of 1-km all-weather land surface temperature (LST) values over western China.

The environmental factors dataset comprised the following: (1) terrain factors, such as elevation, slope, and aspect calculated and resampled by a digital elevation model (DEM) data with 90-m resolution. These data can be downloaded from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission website ( http://srtm.csi.cgiar.org/ ); (2) meteorological factors, including air temperature, solar radiation, and precipitation data, which were extracted from the China meteorological forcing dataset (CMFD) 36 ; (3) LST data obtained from the AWLSTD over western China.

Previous work has shown the CMFD, which includes precipitation data, assimilation of precipitation products from remote sensing, the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and conventional meterological observation data, to be suitable for ground meterological elements in regional in China with high spatiotemporal resolution 37 . Compared with other datasets, it has the advantage of higher accuracy and time sequences for mountainous areas lacking sufficient weather stations.

Data preprocessing

All datasets were projected onto an Albers conical equal area WGS1984 coordinate system. Because the spatial resolution of the terrain and climate factors do not perfectly match those of the snow status and SCA data, all terrain and climate parameters need to be processed to match the snow cover data.

The reflectance data and SCA products selected in this study are both 8-day composite data, and the effect of cloud content is negligible. Because the geodetector method only handles discrete variables, we converted the eight continuous variables into discrete versions. In combination with expert knowledge, we classified the elevation of the northern slope of the TRM according to the vertical vegetation zones. We classified the slope and aspect according to the existing standards 34 . Because of the large differences in surface temperature, near-surface air temperature, downward radiation, and wind speed among different dates, the equal interval method was used to fine-grade all of the factors. A classification scheme for plant functional types was used to select the land cover data from the annual scientific datasets MCD12Q1 from 2013 to 2017. The land cover product was reclassified into broad types: forests, grasslands, agricultural land, urban area, snow and ice, and barren and sparse vegetation. The grading standards of various factors are shown in Fig.  2 .

Spatial distributions of all environmental factors in the study area. ( a – c ) are the factors of elevation, aspect and slope calculated by the DEM dataset ( https://www.resdc.cn/Default.aspx ). ( d ) is the factor of Land cover classification ( https://ladsweb.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/ ). ( e ) is the factor of land surface temperature of the dataset of AWLSTD ( https://data.tpdc.ac.cn/zh-hans/ ). ( f – h ) are the factors of air temperature, the shortwave radiation, and the wind speed from the dataset of CMFD. ( https://data.tpdc.ac.cn/en/data ). Map created in ArcMap 10.6 of the Environmental System Resource Institute, Inc. ( https://www.esri.com/software/arcgis/arcgis-for-desktop ).

Methodology

The methodology used in this study comprises three steps. First, the SCA was extracted from three snow cover indexes along with the melting status of each grain size and the contamination extent. Second, the melting season was divided into three recession periods in each year according to the SCA variations. The study area was also divided into several partitions based on merging areas in common watershed basins. Finally, the geodetector model was implemented to quantitatively determine the impact factors of snow melting on the overall and regional scales.

Retrieval of snow melting parameters

The NDSI has been widely used to differentiate between snow and non-snow pixels using green and shortwave–infrared bands, respectively 38 . It may deal with topographic effects 39 , such as delineating and mapping the snow in mountain shadows 40 . The albedo was found to decrease with the effective increase in grain size because of the clustering of snow crystals. The snow grain index is a normalized difference index of reflectance with green and near-infrared red bands that helps to show grain size variation 39 . A high SGI value indicates a large particle size. Similarly, the maximum effect of snow contamination is observed in the visible region (0.3 and 0.7 μm) and decreases with increasing wavelength (decreases up to 1.3 μm and is negligible beyond 1.3 μm). The value of the SCI remains negative for all types of contamination. Therefore, using cloud-free reflectance for each hydrological year from January 2013 to June 2017, we retrieved optical snow cover indexes for each pixel, including the normalized difference snow index (NDSI) 38 , the snow grain index (SGI), and the snow contamination index (SCI) 39 , 40 , 41 , 42 . NDSI, SGI, and SCI all range from − 1 to + 1. The snow cover metrics were calculated by overlaying these indexes on the SCA extracted from the MOD10A1 data, which serves as the dependent variable in our study.

Spatiotemporal partitioning of the snow melting process

In our study, to accurately determine the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of influencing factors, the snow melt season was divided into recession periods and the study area was partitioned into several subregions.

Division of snowmelt recession periods

Owing to the limited number of available meteorological stations in the study area, the declining SCA curves during the melting season were used to subdivide the snow cover ablation period. The Savitzky–Golay filtering method was used to smooth the SCA decline curve to reflect the overall snow recession trend. The general process of snow recession can be approximated as a cosine curve. There is a process of slow decay, rapid decline, and a slow decline again. Therefore, we refer to the snow decline curve above and divide the process into three stages 43 . The slope of the smoothed SCA curve was used to roughly divide the period of snow cover decline on a year-by-year basis to achieve a detailed analysis of the snowmelt process. Figure  3 depicts the smoothed SCA curve after Savitzky–Golay filtering and the three periods defined as pre-melting (P1), mid-melting (P2), and post-melting (P3). The changes in the SGI and SCI curves during snowmelt periods are displayed as well.

Variations in the SCA, SGI, and SCI during snowmelt seasons from 2013 to 2017. Map created in OriginPro, Version 2021. OriginLab Corporation, Northampton, MA, USA. ( https://www.originlab.com/ ).

Spatial partitioning of the snow melting process

Watershed topographic features were extracted using a DEM to delimit the watersheds in the research area. The ArcGIS hydrological toolbox was used to pre-fill the terrain, extract flow directions, calculate the flow accumulation, extract the river networks and water systems, divide the grades, and define the range of sub-basins. As shown in Fig.  6 , all the sub-basins were merged into the following six subregions: (1) the lower reaches of the northern slope of the MTR, (2) the western side of the Manas River Basin, (3) the Manas River Basin in the MTR, (4) the eastern Manas River Basin, (5) the Bayanbulak area, and (6) the Kaidu River Basin.

Discretization of environmental factors data

The continuous data for various environmental factors were discretized using selected classification algorithms to ensure good results from the geodetector model. Expert knowledge was used to discretize the factor elevation, while the equal-interval discrete method was used to classify other factors. As shown in Fig.  2 , the eight continuous variables were discretized into 4–12 intervals through these discretization methods.

Geographical detector models

This study implemented the geodetector method to attribute variations in snow parameters to related environmental factors at seasonal and annual scales. The geodetector method is a quantitative technique that determines whether the spatial distribution of a geostatistical variable is similar to that of an independent variable. This model is based on spatially stratified heterogeneity, which exists in this region if the variances in the subregions are smaller than the variance in the overall region. Assuming that the spatial distributions of the independent variable (snow cover status) and the dependent variable (impact factor) are consistent, a statistical correlation exists between them, revealing a causal relationship of snow melting in alpine regions 32 .

Within the geodetector model, the Q value was used to quantitatively determine the heterogeneity and autocorrelation of the dependent variable. The relationship between the dependent variable and its influencing factors was also determined. The factor detection model and the interaction detection model are two geodetector functions used in this paper. The formula of the geodetector model is expressed as follows:

where i is the number of determinants; X 1 , X 2 , …, X 22 are the influencing factors selected for this study; j  = 1, …; L refers to the strata of snow cover status or factor Xi ; \(N_{{X_{ij} }}\) and N refer to the number of units in layer j and the entire study area, respectively; and \(\sigma_{{X_{ij} }}^{2}\) and \(\sigma^{2}\) indicate the variances of the total snow cover status in layer j and the entire region, respectively. \(Q_{Xi}\) values range from 0 to 1, where a large value indicates significant spatial stratification heterogeneity. The contributions of different factors to snow cover melting were also explored.

Interactive effect of impact factors

The interactive effect of two variables ( X 1 and X 2 ) on changes in the snow melting process can be quantified by the q statistic. The algorithm primarily creates a new stratum by superimposing X 1 and X 2 , denoted as X 1  ∩  X 2 . It then compares the Q values of the three factors to determine the type of interaction between the factors. By comparing the values of Q ( X 1  ∩  X 2 ) with the values of Q ( X 1 ) and Q ( X 2 ), the index can be used to assess the interactive effects of the two factors ( X 1 and X 2 ). Furthermore, the interactive relationship can be interpreted in terms of five categories, listed in Table 2 , by comparing the interactive Q value of the two factors with the Q value for each of the two factors.

Spatiotemporal variations in snow status during the melting process

As shown in Fig.  3 , the overall SCAs displayed a step-like decreasing trend from 2013 to 2017. The five-year average seasonal change in SCA was approximately 3500 km 2 , constituting over 90% of the total area, of which approximately 70% significantly decreased during the rapid ablation period. In contrast, both SGI and SCI displayed a growth trend in three stages. The increase in the SGI and SCI was inversely related to the step-like decrease in the SCA. The difference in annual changes between the SGI and SCI from 2013 to 2017 was insignificant over the five years. Figure  4 depicts the spatial distribution of the SCA, SGI, and SCI during snowmelt in 2013.

Spatiotemporal distributions of the SGI and SCI during snowmelt periods in 2013. ( a – f and h – m ) are the SGI and SCI that calculated from the reflectance data of MOD09GA ( https://ladsweb.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/ ) and snow cover area data of MOD10A1 ( http://www.crensed.ac.cn/portal/ ). Map created in ArcMap 10.6 of the Environmental System Resource Institute, Inc. ( https://www.esri.com/software/arcgis/arcgis-for-desktop ).

In the P1 stage, the entire research area was essentially covered by snow with a small grain size and contamination extent. In the P2 stage, the snow cover on northern piedmont slopes and that in low-altitude southern areas began to melt widely, with the snow grain size and contamination degree significantly increasing. The snow below the permanent snow line at the end of melting season almost disappeared, which is consistent with previoud studies of the snowline within Tienshan mountain 44 , 45 , 46 . The remaining snow exhibited a high degree of melting. Generally, the snow grain size and contamination degree are not consistent across time and space.

Impact of influencing factors on the snow melting process

Overall dominant factors of snow melting.

The factor detector in the geodetector model was used to analyze the major variation factors in the SGI and SCI. The Q value in the measurement results explains the extent to which each impact factor has caused spatial divergence in the two dependent variables (SGI and SCI). Table 3 shows the average Q values of the SGI and SCI for each influencing factor in each melt season from 2013 to 2017.

Over the five years, the key influencing factors in different periods were relatively consistent. Accordingly, we speculated that the impact factors for the SGI and SCI in each period of the study area would exhibit similar patterns of temporal change over the five year period. The two most important influencing factors during the three periods were found to be LST and elevation (ELE), followed by wind speed (WSP), air temperature (TEMP), solar radiation (SRAD), and slope (SLP). We discovered that the order of the Q value for each factor appeared to be different in snowmelt periods when we compared the interannual variation characteristics of the Q value across three periods. Regardless, the order of the influencing factors remained consistent across years. The increase in the SGI and SCI was inversely related to the decrease in the SCA in a step-like fashion. The difference in annual changes between the SGI and SCI from 2013 to 2017 was insignificant over the five years. The spatial distribution of the SCA, SGI, and SCI on specific dates during snowmelt in 2013 is depicted in Fig.  4 .

LST was the most dominant influencing factor of snow ablation during P1. The degree of influence of WSP, ELE, SRAD, and SLP was only 30% of that of LST and relatively similar. Note that the effect of TEMP was not obvious during this period. This is because during the early stage of melting, when the maximum daily temperature is lower than 0 °C, the SRAD and fluctuations in surface temperature it causes initiate a change in the snow cover state, while wind and terrain affect snow-cover reconstruction.

In P2, the effects of ELE as well as LST significantly increased. The effect of TEMP also increased significantly to reflect that of ELE. The effect of WSP and SRAD slightly decreased, whereas the effect of LCC remarkably increased. This may be because as the daily maximum temperature starts to rise above 0 °C, the effect of TEMP on snowmelt cannot be ignored. Moreover, the change in LCC accelerated the snowmelting process to a large extent. In comparison, WSP, SLP, ASP, and other factors did not obviously influence the snow state during this period.

In P3, ELE, LST, LCC, and TEMP were the leading factors of snow ablation with a significant degree of effect ( Q  >  ~ 0.4). The effects of WSP and ASP were weak enough to be ignored ( Q  <  ~ 0.01). This is because the snow cover gradually melts away with a gradual increase in temperature at the end of ablation. The remaining snow cover presents a typical vertical distribution feature, explaining why LCC displays a high spatial consistency with the snow cover state.

Figure  5 shows the detailed analysis of the effects and trend of variations of multiple factors on the SGI and SCI of 2013. In general, the impact and variation trend of each factor on the SGI and SCI are highly similar (Fig.  6 a,b).During ablation period I, the effect of LST was significant with a trend of slackening increase, whereas ELE had a weak but stable effect. Note that the WSP effect was non-negligible at this stage. In addition, SRAD and SLP had a continuous and obvious effect on snow cover change during this period.

Variations in Q statistics for multi-factors of SGI (6.a) and SCI (6.b) in 2013. Map created in OriginPro, Version 2021. OriginLab Corporation, Northampton, MA, USA. ( https://www.originlab.com/ ).

Spatial distribution of dominant regional factors for SGI and SCI in 2013. I–VI represent the subregions extracted after combining watershed terrain features based on the digital elevation model. Map created in ArcMap 10.6 of the Environmental System Resource Institute, Inc. ( https://www.esri.com/software/arcgis/arcgis-for-desktop ).

In ablation period II, the dominant impact factors were LST, ELE, TEMP, and LCC. The effect of these four factors increased over time, whereas that of other factors significantly decreased. In ablation period III, the effects of LST, ELE, and TEMP exhibited fluctuating changes, whereas the degree of the effects was reduced compared with that in ablation period II. However, the effect of LCC significantly increased.

Local influencing factors in the snow melting process

Figure  6 shows the spatial distribution of the dominant regional factors affecting the SGI and SCI in six sub-basins. The results indicate that the spatial distribution of dominant factors for the SGI and SCI are generally similar.

As Fig.  6 a,b,g,h shows, in the early stage of ablation, SRAD was the dominant factor causing snow change in the northern and central alpine areas ( Q RAD  = 0.23). LST and TEMP had weak and similar effects in these regions ( Q Temp  = 0.04, Q LST  = 0.10). However, in the southern plain of the study area, WSP was the most significant leading influencing factor ( Q wsp  = 0.149).

During the mid-melting period, the northern part of the study area was primarily controlled by ELE, LST, and TEMP. Over time, most of the study areas became controlled by LST ( Q LST  = 0.40) and ELE ( Q ELE  = 0.36) (Fig.  6 c,d,i,j).

By the end of the ablation period, the effect of ELE gradually expanded from north to south. LCC ( Q LCC  = 0.38) became the dominant factor in the south of the study area, whereas the east of the study area was mainly controlled by LST ( Q LCC  = 0.26) (Fig.  6 e,f,k,l).

This may be because in the pre-melting stage, even if at very low temperature, SRAD caused a change in the snow cover status. Because of the wind tunnel effect formed by the east–west mountain orientation, high wind speeds also caused a change in snow cover. During the mid-melting period, the increase in LST and TEMP accelerated melting. The snow cover on the northern slope was more significantly affected by ELE owing to the effect of topographic uplift. In the post-stage of ablation, the overall temperature rise caused the change in the snow cover rate to be more affected by LCC and ELE.

Interactions of impact factors in snow melting

Overall interactive effect of multiple factors in snow melting.

Table 4 shows the average values of interactions between pairs of factors listed for three ablation periods. These values are based on the interaction results of the snow grain size and contamination index from 2013 to 2017. During P1, there was no significant interaction between factors, with ELE and RAD having the most significant interactive effect. Cross interactions were minimal for ELE, TEMP, WSP, and LST. In P2, the interactions between TEMP and LCC significantly increased, as did the interactions between ELE, RAD, LST, and WSP. The interaction degree for each factor in P3 significantly increased at the end of ablation. The cross interactive effects between ELE, RAD, SLP, TEMP, and LCC were all distinctive. Notably, the interaction of SLP became more prominent at the end of ablation in this period. During the three periods, most factors exhibited nonlinear interaction, and the interaction types of ELE ∩ ASP, LST ∩ ASP, and ASP ∩ SLP were bilinear.

Regional differences in interactions of multiple factors

The Q value of each of the interactive pair of factors was found to be larger than the Q values of each of the two factors. Some of the Q values of the interactive pairs of factors were even larger than the sum of the Q values of the individual factors.

The parameter \(P_{factor1,2}\) was proposed here to quantify the interaction between two factors. Its value is the difference between the Q values of the stacked factors and the sum of the Q value of each factor. The regional maximum P values in different periods were statistically analyzed to explore the temporal and spatial differentiation characteristics of the environmental factor interactions. Table 5 shows three pairs of interactive factors with the most significant interaction in different subregions for the three stages of melting with their corresponding P values.

We found that ELE and LST always had the highest interactions with other factors, which was determined by comparing the interactive factor pairs with high Q values. Each subregion was found to have pairwise enhancing effects among the major dominant impact factors. The types of interaction enhancement and the degree of interaction vary in each subregion. In the early stage of snow melting, ELE interacted with LST, RAD, WSP, and SLP in subregions I, II, III, and IV. However, in subregions V and VI, the interactions between LSP, RAD, and SLP were significant, with a higher enhancement effect. In the mid-ablation period, the main interaction in each region was between ELE and LST, and the enhancement effect of multi-factor interaction was enhanced in all regions. The interaction enhancement effect within regions V and VI was significantly greater than that in other regions.

Even though the interaction of several components had weakened by the end of the melting period, ELE and LST still had significant interaction. Note that the interaction between LCC and other factors is more prominent at the end of ablation. Despite the proportion of forest being small, the snow cover at the end of ablation was concentrated in mountainous areas with a significant vertical difference. The surface vegetation type with remaining snow cover included grassland, forestland, barren and sparse vegetation, snow, and ice.

Comparison with previous studies

Many studies have addressed the effect of uplifted terrain on snow cover, determining that with increasing elevation, the negative feedback of air temperature increases, particularly at elevations over 2000 m a.s.l 10 , 47 . A threshold altitude of 3650 ± 150 m was found for the upper Heihe River Basin, below which air temperature is a negative factor in the SCA 18 . All these findings suggest the elevation’s prominent role and complex patterns in snowmelt. As shown in Fig.  7 a,b, we analyzed variations in the effect of ELE in regions from north to south. It can be observed that (1) in subregion I located on the northern piedmont slope, ELE has a greater influence on snow melting in each period; (2) in the central mountainous area represented by subregion III, altitude has a lesser overall degree of influence, and the degree of influence in the early stage of ablation is significantly weaker than that in the final stage; (3) in subregion V, altitude has the lowest degree of influence, but it gradually increases with ablation. In general, altitude has the highest impact on the piedmont slopes in the north. It gradually decreases from north to south in the central mountainous areas and in the low-elevation areas in the south.

Spatiotemporal variations in the regional degree of influence of ELE on SGI and SCI. Map created in OriginPro, Version 2021. OriginLab Corporation, Northampton, MA, USA. ( https://www.originlab.com/ ).

We further found that the solar radiation and wind speed were the dominant snow-melting factors in the northern and southern parts of the study area, respectively. This phenomenon is particularly noticeable during the pre-melting period. This is because the solar radiation, as the important component of the download radiation, promotes a climate by warming land temps. Whereas the heat that near the earth surface mainly comes from the download long-wave radiation, which is manifested as the rise of surface air temperature and land surface temperature. However, the amount of the download longwave radiation is not enough to cause a significant rise of the near-surface temperature or air temperature during the pre-melting period. Thus, the solar radiation is more prominent at this period. Moreover, the effect of westerlies can be seen by noting the wind channel effect formed within regions V and VI that are adjacent to a raised mountain range in regions II, III, and IV. This is because the enhanced downward sensible heat flux to snowpack is mainly due to the enhanced surface heat exchange coefficient induced by high surface wind speeds. Wind speed was confirmed to increase the latent heat flux of snow, causing sublimation at the snow surface 48 .

During the rapid ablation period, TEMP, LST, and ELE are the main factors that accelerate ablation in all regions, with a significant degree of influence. Factors such as topography would significantly redistribute the net surface radiation. The effect of elevation was primarily present in the northern area owing to the uplift along the north slope, with a significant increase in the degree of the effect. Whereas the enhanced ground energy absorption is driving by both the download longwave radiation (e.g. rising in air and surface temperature) and strong melting-induced snow cover reduction. The reduction of snowcover significantly decreased the surface albedo that can lead to the enhancement of short-wave radiation absorption on snowcover surface, which can accelerate snowmelting. In previous studies, the air temperature was found to be the most influential factor during this period; however, our findings show that the influence of surface temperature is more significant. Compared with the near-surface temperature, the snow surface temperature is more likely to rise owing to the absorption of download radiation 49 .

In comparison, the influence of the underlying surface type on snow ablation was more prominent in the late stage of snow melting. We determined that the snow cover at lower altitudes had completely melted during this period, and the remaining snow cover was mostly distributed among the mountainous areas. Thus, the enhanced interactions between LCC and other hydrothermal factors are more complex in regions with distinct land cover types. Compared with the influencing factors in snow surface evaporation, different energy storage types in different underlying surfaces will alter the snow ablation patterns in various regions. Snow ablation is influenced by vegetation through complex snow–canopy interactions such as canopy interception, solar radiation blocking, longwave canopy radiation, wind attenuation, and below-canopy turbulence 50 , 51 , 52 . A significant elevation drop in mountainous areas caused continuous snowmelt runoff, which further accelerated the snow-melting process.

The combined findings verified the effect of net radiation on the snow melting process. The melting results from the enhanced downward sensible heat flux to snowpack and enhanced ground solar radiation absorption, with generally larger contributions from the former at the pre-melting period and from the latter after that. Undulating terrain has a significant effect on energy redistribution, resulting in local differences in radiation, temperature, wind speed, surface type, and other conditions. The combined action of these local factors directly or indirectly affects the heating of the shallow surface and the heat storage conditions under the snow cover, affects changes in the snow cover state in the region, and demonstrates the heterogeneity of the factors that influence snow cover in different temporal and spatial regions.

Limitations and further work

This paper aims to quantify the degree of influence of different factors in the distribution of snow status using the geographical detector method. Additional local factors, such as rainfall, river distance, and soil water content of the underlying surface should be considered. Because of poor data quality in the study area, precipitation data were not included. The inconsistent spatial resolutions of various impact factor data will also have an impact on the detection results. For example, although both air temperature and LST are considered in this study, the spatial resolution of air temperature data is still lower than that of LST, which may be the reason for the low spatial correlation between air temperature and snow cover, suggesting that the difference in coupling between air temperature and LST and snow melting merits further investigation.

In addition, analyses performed on different scales may lead some factors to be neglected. For example, the impact of local topography is particularly prominent on a small scale, which is difficult to represent in a large-scale analysis. The varying characteristics of the influencing factors at different scales and the disturbance effects during the ablation process remain a topic for further study.

In the current work, only the snow grain size and contamination index based on optical data were used as dependent variables, and parameters more closely related to snow ablation, such as snow depth, snow humidity should also be selected. To provide better decision-making support for regional snow ablation and runoff simulations, the influence of local factors on the distribution of annual snow ablation was studied by comprehensively considering problems at different scales.

Conclusions

This study combined the SGI and SCI as dependent variables and multiple environmental influencing factors as independent variables. The geodetector method was used to quantitatively detect the response of snow melting status parameters to various environmental factors during the melting seasons from 2013 to 2017. Spatiotemporal partitioning was used to explore the regional response to influencing factors and their interactions during different melting periods. The conclusions are as follows:

By dividing changes in the snow cover status into periods, we observe similar responses of the snow grain size index and contamination index to multiple influencing factors. On the overall scale, the variation characteristics of the factors that influence snow melting have commonalities across different years, indicating a regular pattern in the influencing factors of snow ablation in the study area in recent years.

In the period before ablation, the snow cover state also changed. LST became the dominant influencing factor during this period on a overall scale. In the rapid melting period, LST and ELE were the main factors affecting snow cover decline. This indicates that temperature still affects snow cover on a large scale, while terrain has a significant effect on the redistribution of spatial heat distribution.

As the scale decreases, local factors such as radiation, slope, and surface type become more prominent. Before the ablation period, SRAD and LST were the dominant factors in the northern part of the study area, while wind speed was the dominant factor in the southern part. During the rapid ablation period, ELE, LST, and TEMP acted together from north to south. At the end of the ablation period, complete snow melt occurred at low altitudes, and the snow status was more closely reflected in the high correlation with LCC. The influence of a certain factor on annual snow melt also differed significantly in different study areas, with the difference being related to the distribution characteristics of that factor in different regions.

Regardless of the interaction between overall and local factors, the results show that the interaction between two variables has a greater impact on snow cover distribution than that of a single variable. The interaction enhancement effect can be double factor enhancement or nonlinear enhancement. The factor pairs with the highest interaction enhancement results are also those whose influencing factors are predominant in the local space.

Data availability

The datasets analyzed during the current study are available in the table below.

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Acknowledgements

Department of Nanjing University and Nanjing Tech university provided the lab and equipment. The National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41801269) and Foundation of National Cryosphere Desert Data Center of China (Grand No. 20D09) provided support for this work.

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Li, H., Liu, J., Lei, X. et al. Quantitative determination of environmental factors governing the snow melting: a geodetector case study in the central Tienshan Mountains. Sci Rep 12 , 11565 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-15722-5

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Impact of tourism development upon environmental sustainability: a suggested framework for sustainable ecotourism

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• Volume 30 , pages 5917–5930, ( 2023 )

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• Qadar Bakhsh Baloch 1 ,
• Syed Naseeb Shah 1 ,
• Nadeem Iqbal 2 ,
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The empirical research investigated the relationship between tourism development and environmental suitability to propose a framework for sustainable ecotourism. The framework suggested a balance between business and environmental interests in maintaining an ecological system with the moderating help of government support and policy interventions. The study population encompasses tourism stakeholders, including tourists, representatives from local communities, members of civil administration, hoteliers, and tour operators serving the areas. A total of 650 questionnaires were distributed to respondents, along with a brief description of key study variables to develop a better understanding. After verifying the instrument’s reliability and validity, data analysis was conducted via hierarchical regression. The study findings revealed that a substantial number of people perceive socio-economic benefits, including employment and business openings, infrastructure development from tourism development, and growth. However, the state of the natural and environmental capital was found to be gradually degrading. Alongside the social environment, social vulnerability is reported due to the overutilization of land, intrusion from external cultures, and pollution in air and water due to traffic congestion, accumulation of solid waste, sewage, and carbon emissions. The study suggested a model framework for the development of sustained ecotourism, including supportive government policy interventions to ensure effective conservation of environmental and natural resources without compromising the economic viability and social well-beings of the locals. Furthermore, the variables and the constructs researched can be replicated to other destinations to seek valuable inputs for sustainable destination management elsewhere.

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Introduction

Tourism is a vibrant force that stimulates travel to explore nature, adventures, wonders, and societies, discover cultures, meet people, interact with values, and experience new traditions and events. Tourism development attracts tourists to a particular destination to develop and sustain a tourism industry. Moreover, environmental sustainability is the future-based conscious effort aimed at conserving socio-cultural heritage and preserving natural resources to protect environmental ecosystems through supporting people’s health and economic well-being. Environment sustainability can be reflected in clean and green natural landscaping, thriving biodiversity, virgin sea beaches, long stretches of desert steppes, socio-cultural values, and archeological heritage that epitomize tourists’ degree of motivation and willingness of the local community to welcome the visitors. In this context, tourism growth and environmental sustainability are considered interdependent constructs; therefore, the increase in tourism development and tourists’ arrivals directly affects the quality of sustained and green tourism (Azam et al. 2018 ; Hassan et al.  2020 ; Sun et al. 2021 ).

According to the World Tourism Organization (UNWTO), tourism is one of the fastest-growing industries, contributing more than 10% to the global GDP (UNWTO 2017; Mikayilov et al. 2019 ). Twenty-five million international tourists in 1950 grew to 166 million in 1970, reaching 1.442 billion in 2018 and projected to be 1.8 billion by 2030. Mobilizing such a substantial human tourist’s mass is most likely to trickle environmental pollution along with its positive effects on employment, wealth creation, and the economy. The local pollution at tourist destinations may include air emissions, noise, solid waste, littering, sewage, oil and chemicals, architectural/visual pollution, heating, car use, and many more. In addition, an uncontrolled, overcrowded, and ill-planned tourist population has substantial adverse effects on the quality of the environment. It results in the over-consumption of natural resources, degradation of service quality, and an exponential increase in wastage and pollution. Furthermore, tourism arrivals beyond capacity bring problems rather than a blessing, such as leaving behind soil erosion, attrition of natural resources, accumulation of waste and air pollution, and endangering biodiversity, decomposition of socio-cultural habitats, and virginity of land and sea (Kostić et al. 2016 ; Shaheen et al. 2019 ; Andlib and Salcedo-Castro  2021 ).

Tourism growth and environmental pollution have been witnessed around the globe in different regions. The ASEAN countries referred to as heaven for air pollution, climate change, and global warming are experiencing economic tourism and pollution (Azam et al. 2018 ; Guzel and Okumus 2020 ). In China, more than fifty-eight major Chinese tourism destinations are inviting immediate policy measures to mitigate air pollution and improve environmental sustainability (Zhang et al. 2020 ). Similarly, Singapore, being a top-visited country, is facing negative ecological footprints and calling for a trade-off between tourism development and environmental sustainability (Khoi et al. 2021 ). The prior studies established that international tourism and the tourism-led growth surge tourists’ arrival, energy consumption, carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions, and air pollution resultantly cause climate change (Aslan et al. 2021 ). South Asian countries, more specifically Sri Lanka and Pakistan, are on the verge of tourism growth and environmental pollution compared to other countries (Chishti et al. 2020 ; Tiwari et al. 2021 ).

Pakistan is acknowledged in the tourism world because of its magnificent mountains with the densest concentration of high peaks in the world, scenic beauty of Neelum Valley, Murree, Chitral, and swat Valleys’, Kaghan, Naran, Hunza, Gilgit Baltistan (Baloch 2007 ), sacred shrines of Sikhism, archeological sites of the Gandhara and Indus Valley civilizations such as Mohenjo-Daro, Taxila including pre-Islamic Kalasha community (Baloch and Rehman 2015 ). In addition, Pakistan’s hospitable and multicultural society offers rich traditions, customs, and festivals for the tourists to explore, commemorate, cherish, and enjoy. Pakistan’s geographical and socio-cultural environment represents its resource and an opportunity (Baloch and Rehman 2015 ); therefore, Pakistan is looking to capitalize on it as a promising source of the foreign reserve to compensate for its mounting trade deficit (Baloch et al. 2020 ).

Tourism expansion has been established as a very deleterious ecological cost vis-à-vis the socio-economic benefits it passes to the host communities (Pulido-Fernández et al. 2019 ; Simo-Kengne 2022 ). In this context, the research is motivated to investigate the relationships between Pakistan’s tourism development activities and environmental sustainability. Drawing from the arguments of Pulido-Fernández et al. ( 2019 ) and Simo-Kengne ( 2022 ), it is feared that Pakistan’s ongoing determination to tourism development is likely to cause environmental degradation in two ways. Firstly, the tourism infrastructure developmental process would consume natural resources in the form of air and water pollution, loss of nature, and biodiversity. Secondly, the proliferation of tourism-related energy-consuming activities harms the environment by adding CO 2  emissions (Andlib and Saceldo-Castro 2021 ; Chien et al. 2021a ). Therefore, to tape this tourism-rich potential without compromising the sustainability of the natural and socio-cultural environment in the area, there is a dire need to develop Pakistan’s tourism areas into environment-friendly destinations.

Against the backdrop of a widening level of trade deficit, Pakistan’s rich tourism potential is being perceived as an immediate alternative for earning revenue to compensate for the current account gap. However, the developing large-scale tourism industry is considered a threat to deforestation, and air and water pollution, endangering biodiversity trading on resilient ecological credentials. The research study attempts to find an all-inclusive and comprehensive answer to the socio-ecological environmental concerns of tourism development and growth. Therefore, the research investigates the relationship between tourism development and its environmental sustainability to suggest a model framework for the development and growth of Sustainable Ecotourism in Pakistan along with its most visited destinations.

Literature review

• Tourism development and growth

Tourism is considered a force of sound as it benefits travelers and communities in urban and suburban areas. Tourism development is the process of forming and sustaining a business for a particular or mix of segments of tourists’ as per their motivation in a particular area or at a specific destination. Primarily, tourism development refers to the all-encompassing process of planning, pursuing, and executing strategies to establish, develop, promote, and encourage tourism in a particular area or destination (Mandić et al. 2018 ; Ratnasari et al. 2020 ). A tourism destination may serve as a single motivation for a group of tourists or a mix of purposes, i.e., natural tourism, socio-cultural or religious tourism, adventure or business tourism, or a combination of two or more. Andlib and Salcedo-Castro ( 2021 ), drawing from an analysis approach, contended that tourism destinations in Pakistan offer a mix of promising and negative consequences concerning their socio-economic and environmental impressions on the host community. The promising socio-economic impacts for the local community are perceived in the form of employment and business opportunities, improved standard of living, and infrastructural development in the area. The adverse environmental outcomes include overcrowding, traffic congestion, air and noise pollution, environmental degradation, and encroachment of landscaping for the local community and the tourists. An extensive review of the literature exercise suggests the following benefits that the local community and the tourists accrue from the tour are as follows:

Generate revenue and monetary support for people and the community through local arts and culture commercialization.

Improve local resource infrastructure and quality of life, including employment generation and access to improved civic facilities.

Help to create awareness and understanding of different ethnic cultures, social values, and traditions, connecting them and preserving cultures.

Rehabilitate and conserve socio-cultural and historical heritage, including archeological and natural sites.

Establishment of natural parks, protracted areas, and scenic beauty spots.

Conservation of nature, biodiversity, and endangered species with control over animal poaching.

Improved water and air quality through afforestation, littering control, land and soil conservation, and recycling of used water and waste.

Tourism and hospitality business incorporates various business activities such as travel and transportation through the air or other modes of travel, lodging, messing, restaurants, and tourism destinations (Szpilko 2017 ; Bakhriddinovna and Qizi 2020 ). A tourist’s tourism experience is aimed at leisure, experiencing adventure, learning the culture or history of a particular area or ethnic entity, traveling for business or health, education, or religious purposes. The chain of activities adds value to the Tourism experience. Every activity contributes toward economic stimulation, job creation, revenue generation, and tourism development encompassing infrastructure for all activities involved in the tourism process. Tourism growth expresses the number of arrivals and the time of their stay/trips over a period of time. Tourism growth is measured through the interplay between tourists’ arrivals, tourism receipts, and travel time duration (Song et al. 2010 ; Arifin et al. 2019 ). The following factors drive the degree and level of tourism development and growth:

Environmental factors include scenic beauty, green spaces, snowy mountains, towering peaks, good climate and weather, the interconnectivity of destination, quality of infrastructure, etc.

Socio-economic factors: the distinctiveness of community, uniqueness of culture and social values, hospitality and adaptability, accessibility, accommodation, facilities and amenities, cost-effectiveness, price index, and enabling business environment.

Historical, cultural, and religious factors include historical and cultural heritage, religious sites, and cultural values and experiences.

The tourism development process and its different dynamics revolve around the nature of tourism planned for a particular destination or area, which can be specified as ecotourism, sustainable tourism, green tourism or regenerative tourism, etc. Ecotourism is “responsible travel to natural areas that conserves the environment, sustains the well-being of the local people, and involves interpretation and education” (Cheia, 2013 ; TIES, 2015). According to the World Conservation Union (IUCN), ecotourism involves “ Environmentally responsible travel to natural areas, to enjoy and appreciate nature (and accompanying cultural features, both past, and present) that promote conservation, have a low visitor impact and provide for beneficially active socio-economic involvement of local peoples ”. Moreover, Blangy and Wood ( 1993 ) defined it as “ responsible travel to natural areas that conserves the environment and sustains the well-being of local people ” (p. 32). The concept of ecotourism is grounded upon a well-defined set of principles including “environmental conservation and education, cultural preservation and experience, and economic benefits” (Cobbinah 2015 ; De Grosbois and Fennell 2021 ).

Ecotourism minimizes tourism’s impact on the tourism resources of a specific destination, including lessening physical, social, interactive, and psychosomatic impacts. Ecotourism is also about demonstrating a positive and responsible attitude from the tourists and hosts toward protecting and preserving all components of the environmental ecosystem. Ecotourism reflects a purpose-oriented mindset, responsible for creating and delivering value for the destination with a high degree of kindliness for local environmental, political, or social issues. Ecotourism generally differs from mass tourism because of its following features (Liang et al. 2018 ; Ding and Cao 2019 ; Confente and Scarpi 2021 ):

Conscientious behavior focuses on the low impact on the environment.

Sensitivity and warmth for local cultures, values, and biodiversity.

Supporting the sustenance of efforts for the conservation of local resources.

Sharing and delivering tourism benefits to the local communities.

Local participation as a tourism stakeholder in the decision-making process.

Educating the tourist and locals about the sensitivity and care of the environment because tourism without proper arrangement can endanger the ecosystems and indigenous cultures and lead to significant ecological degradation.

Sustainability aims to recognize all impacts of tourism, minimize the adverse impacts, and maximize the encouraging ones. Sustainable tourism involves sustainable practices to maintain viable support for the ecology of the tourism environment in and around the destination. Sustainable tourism is natural resource-based tourism that resembles ecotourism and focuses on creating travel openings with marginal impact and encouraging learning about nature having a low impact, conservation, and valuable consideration for the local community’s well-being (Fennell 2001 & 2020 ; Butowski 2021 ). On the other hand, ecotourism inspires tourists to learn and care about the environment and effectively participate in the conservation of nature and cultural activities. Therefore, ecotourism is inclusive of sustainable tourism, whereas the focus of sustainable tourism includes the following responsibilities:

Caring, protecting, and conserving the environment, natural capital, biodiversity, and wildlife.

Delivering socio-economic welfare for the people living in and around tourists' destinations.

Identifying, rehabilitating, conserving, and promoting cultural and historical heritage for visitors learning experiences.

Bringing tourists and local groups together for shared benefits.

Creating wide-ranging and reachable opportunities for tourists.

Environment and sustainability of ecosystem

The term “environment” is all-inclusive of all the natural, organic living, inorganic, and non-natural things. The environment also denotes the interface among all breathing species with the natural resources and other constituents of the environment. Humans’ activities are mainly responsible for environmental damage as people and nations have contemplated modifying the environment to suit their expediencies. Deforestation, overpopulation, exhaustion of natural capital, and accumulation of solid waste and sewage are the major human activities that result in polluted air and water, acid rain, amplified carbon dioxide levels, depletion of the ozone, climate change, global warming, extermination of species, etc. A clean, green, and hygienic fit environment has clean air, clean water, clean energy, and moderate temperature for the healthy living of humans, animals, and biodiversity as nature is destined for them by their creatures. Maintaining and sustaining a clean environment is indispensable for human and biodiversity existence, fostering growth and development for conducting business and creating wealth. The environment can be sustained through conservation, preservation, and appropriate management to provide clean air, water, and food safe from toxic contamination, waste, and sewage disposal, saving endangered species and land conservation.

The globalization process, known for building socio-economic partnerships across countries, is also charged with encouraging environmental degradation through the over-consumption of natural resources and energy consumption, deforestation, land erosion, and weakening (Adebayo and Kirikkaleli 2021 ; Sun et al. 2021 ). Chien et al. ( 2021b ), while studying the causality of environmental degradation in Pakistan, empirically confirmed the existence of a significant connection between CO 2  emissions and GDP growth, renewable energy, technological innovation, and globalization. However, Chien et al. ( 2021a ) suggested using solar energy as a source of economic intervention to control CO 2  emissions and improve environmental quality in China. The danger of air pollution is hard to escape as microscopic air pollutants pierce through the human respiratory and cardiovascular system, injuring the lungs, heart, and brain. Ill-planned and uncontrolled human activities negatively affect ecosystems, causing climate change, ocean acidification, melting glaciers, habitation loss, eutrophication, air pollution, contaminants, and extinction of endangered species ( Albrich et al. 2020 ) .

Humans have a more significant effect on their physical environment in numerous ways, such as pollution, contamination, overpopulation, deforestation, burning fossil fuels and driving to soil erosion, polluting air and water quality, climate change, etc. UNO Agenda for 2030 “Sustainable Development and its Sustainable Development Goals” (SDGs) mirrors the common premise that a healthy environment and human health are interlaced as integral to the satisfaction of fundamental human rights, i.e., right to life, well-being, food, water and sanitation, quality of life and biodiversity to ensure healthy lives and promote well-being for all at all ages (SDG3)—which includes air quality that is dependent upon terrestrial ecosystems (SDG15), oceans (SDG14), cities (SDG11), water, cleanliness, and hygiene (SDG6) (Swain 2018 ; Opoku 2019 ; Scharlemann et al. 2020 ). The UNEP stated that 58% of diarrhea cases in developing economies is due to the non-provision of clean water and inadequate sanitation facilities resulting in 3.5 million deaths globally (Desai 2016 ; Ekins and Gupta 2019 ).

Climate change overwhelmingly alters ecosystems’ ability to moderate life-threatening happenings, such as maintaining water quality, regulating water flows, unbalancing the temporal weather and maintaining glaciers, displacing or extinction biodiversity, wildfire, and drought (Zhu et al. 2019 ; Marengo et al. 2021 ). Research studies advocate that exposure to natural environments is correlated with mental health, and proximity to green space is associated with lowering stress and minimizing depression and anxiety (Noordzij et al. 2020 ; Slater et al. 2020 ; Callaghan et al. 2021 ). Furthermore, the Ecosystem is affected by pollution, over-exploitation of natural resources, climate change, invasive and displacing species, etc. Hence, providing clean air and water, hygienic places, and green spaces enriches the quality of life: condensed mortality, healthier value-added productivity, and is vital to maintaining mental health. On the other hand, climate change aggravates environment-related health hazards through adverse deviations to terrestrial ecology, oceans, biodiversity, and access to fresh and clean water.

Tourism development denotes all activities linked with creating and processing facilities providing services for the tourists on and around a destination. Infrastructure development is vital for developing a tourism destination to advance tourists’ living conditions and preserve natural and cultural heritage by constructing new tourist facilities, the destinations administrative and supporting echelons, including community living, etc. Development for tourism infrastructure and land use often burdens natural capital through over-consumption, leading to soil erosion, augmented pollution, loss of natural habitats, and endangered species. Development of tourism infrastructure and construction work has profound implications on environmental degradation, reduction in green spaces, deforestation, solid waste and sewage, overutilization of air and water, emission of CO 2 and other gases contributing to air and water pollution, climate change, loss and displacement of biodiversity, and the degradation of ecosystems. These negative consequences of tourism development result in many problems for the tourists and the indigenous people in the foreseeable future (Azam et al. 2018 ; Hoang et al. 2020 ).

A report published by UNEP titled “Infrastructure for climate action” has suggested governments introduce sustainable infrastructure as the prevailing one is responsible for causing 79% of all greenhouse gas emissions in struggling climate change, alleviation, and adaptation efforts. Sustainable infrastructure signifies that structures’ planning, construction, and functioning do not weaken the social, economic, and ecological systems (UNEP 2021 ; Krampe 2021 ). Sustainable infrastructure is the only solution that ensures societies, nature, and the environment flourish together. Therefore, Sustainable Ecotourism supports adapting pro-environment and nature-based climate change strategies that help resilient biodiversity and ecosystem to impact climate change. The proposed strategy is to focus on the conservation and restoration of ecosystems to combat climate hazards, fluctuating rainfalls, soil erosion, temperature variations, floods, and extreme wind storms (Niedziółka 2014 ; Setini 2021 )

Pakistan’s tourism infrastructure suffered a colossal amount of damage during the earthquake of October 8, 2005, which left widespread demolition and destruction to its human, economic assets, and infrastructure networks, especially in Kashmir and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa's tourism areas. The tourism-related infrastructure, including hotels, destination facilities of social service delivery and commerce, water channels, and communications networks, were either drained or virtually destroyed. The destruction in the aftermath of the earthquake was further added by the war against terror in tourism-hit areas, resulting in the redundancy of tourists and tourism facilities for a long time (Akbar et al. 2017 ; Zakaria and Ahmed 2019 ). The tourism revival activities during the post-earth quack, post-terrorism scenario, and COVID-19 period called for various entrepreneurial activities, including the construction of infrastructure, hotels, road networks, community living, etc. Development and reconstruction of the livelihood and hospitality infrastructure through entrepreneurship were undertaken intensively through a public-private partnership from national and international findings (Qamar and Baloch 2017 ; Sadiq 2021 ; Dogar et al. 2021 ).

The revival and reinvigoration of infrastructure in tourism areas were backed up by extensive deforestation, use of local green land, rebuilding of the road network, displacement of biodiversity, and overtaxing the consumption of water and other natural resources. The deforestation, extensive use of green land, and over-consumption of water and other natural resources have depleted the tourism value of the area on the one hand and degraded the environment on the other. However, it was the focused rehabilitation activities of earthquake and Pakistan’s Government’s socio-environment conservation strategy of the Billion Trees plantation program in the province, including dominating tourism areas. The afforestation and loss of green tops are being reclaimed through these efforts, and the tourism environment is soon expected to regenerate (Qamar and Baloch 2017 ; Rauf et al. 2019 ; Siddiqui and Siddiqui 2019 ).

Government support and policy interventions

Tourism generates wide-ranging benefits for the economy, community, and people. Tourism contributes to the economy through revenue generation and shares responsibility with the Government to alleviate poverty alleviation, create opportunities for job placements, protect environments, and conserve natural ecosystems and biodiversity. It is assumed that if the tourism industry is left to its own, it will most likely prefer its business interests over environments or biodiversity. Governments, custodians of the life and well-being of their subjects, are directly responsible for providing a clean environment, nature, and Ecosystem. Therefore, national and local governments are responsible for preparing and implementing tourism development plans and enforcing values and standards for tourism development in conformity with the prerequisites of environmental sustainability. Through institutional governance, governments help tourism development by providing financial and budgetary support, regulatory framework, land, physical resources, infrastructure, etc. Provision and facilitation for Sustainability of Ecotourism and conservation of environment and biodiversity are dependent upon Government-supported interventions as follows:

The regulatory framework for setting up tourism-related entrepreneurship and quality standards can support ecotourism and prevent environmental degradation on any account.

Provision of budgetary support for ecosystem conservation and regeneration of bio-diversity-related projects.

Plan, rehabilitate if needed, promote conservation and protection of socio-cultural, historic, antique, and natural endowments in coordination with other public and private agencies, and deal with the defaulters, if any.

Promoting and undertaking afforestation alongside land conservation and discouraging deforestation, soil erosion, accumulation of solid waste, littering, and any direct or indirect loss or threat to biodiversity.

Setting restrictions for over-tourism beyond capacity and quality standards for transportation, restaurants, hotels, food and drinking water, etc.

Placing enforcement mechanism necessary to ensure application of the regulatory framework and quality standards applicable along with all activities inclusive to the Ecotourism value chain.

Theoretical support and hypothesis development

According to the social disruption theory, rapidly expanding societies usually experience a period of widespread crisis and a loss of their conventional routines and attitudes. The crisis impacts people whose mental health, worldviews, behavioral patterns, and social networks may all be impacted (Çalişkan and Özer 2021 ). According to the social disruption theory, fast community change brought on by population growth will result in a variety of social issues that are signs of a generally disorganized community (Smith et al. 2001 ). Because some types of tourism communities experience rapid expansion accompanied by intensive development and rapid social change over a relatively short period of time, they seem to be great settings for studying various postulations of the social disruption theory.

Place change and social disruption theory are closely connected. According to this assumption, when a community undergoes fast expansion, it tends to experience a generalized crisis that might culminate in several social issues as changes spread throughout the community and among individuals (Rasoolimanesh et al. 2019 ). Place change can result from fundamental community restructuring due to economic development, new class divides, and migration of both long-term and temporary people (Nelson 2001 ). Social unrest, though, is not enduring. Instead, it is transitory; societies gradually adjust to these changes (Deery et al.  2012 ).

The standard of living may initially deteriorate, but due to the adaptability of people and communities, they will gradually reinvigorate and strengthen themselves accordingly. Furthermore, the social disruption proposition reinforces one of the challenges in analyzing the effects of tourism, particularly in emerging nations, since it is sometimes difficult to distinguish between the effects of tourism and the overall ongoing development (Park and Stokowski 2009 ) (Fig. 1 ).

Tourism development and growth significantly affect natural environment resources.

Tourism development and growth significantly affect environmental pollution.

Tourism development and growth significantly affect the physical ecosystem of the environment.

Tourism development and growth significantly affect the socio-cultural environment.

Tourism development and growth significantly affect the economic environment of people and the community.

Government policy and support significantly moderate the relationship between tourism development and growth and the environmental factors.

Conceptual framework

Methodology

The study aimed to investigate the association of tourism development and its impact on environmental factors. Therefore, a survey method was employed to collect data by including all the relevant people in the locality. The study is based on stakeholders’ opinions from Pakistan’s most visited tourist areas, including Murree, Swat, Chitral, Naran, Kaghan, Neelum Valley, Malam Jabba, Ayubia, and Nathia Gali. A total of 650 stakeholders were contacted from the above-mentioned tourist destinations through survey. The distribution of the sample is mentioned in Table 1 .

Using quantitative techniques, hierarchical linear regression analysis was employed to investigate the possible relationships between tourism growth and various dimensions of environmental sustainability. The results below reveal that tourism development translates into environmental deterioration, and the relationship between tourism and environmental sustainability is bidirectional.

Tourism growth and development were measured through a five-item scale. The environment was measured through 16 items combined scale with sub-dimensions; depletion of Natural Resources=3 items, Polluting Environment=3 items, Physical Effects on Ecosystem=4 items, Socio-Cultural Degradation=3 items, and Economic Environment=3-items. Similarly, our moderating variable, Government Interventions and Support, was measured using a 5-item scale. Table 2 below presents the details of the instruments.

Analysis and results

Data were analyzed using SPSS Version 26. It includes correlation, linear regression, and stepwise hierarchal regression analysis.

Table 3 above shows that our Tourism Growth and Development has significant and positive relationship with Polluting Environment ( r = 0.20**), Physical Effects on Ecosystem ( r = 0.19**), Depletion of Natural Resource ( r = 0.24**), Socio-Cultural Degradation ( r = 0.18**). However, Tourism Growth and Development has positive relationship with Economic Environment ( r = 0.29**) and Government Interventions and Support ( r = 0.13**).

Results of linear regression analysis at Table 4 above depict that tourism growth and development predicts 4.1% variance in Depletion of Natural Resources ( β = 0.20, p <0.01), 3.9% variance in pollution ( β = 0.19, p <0.01), 6% variance in Physical Effects on Ecosystem ( β = 0.24, p <0.01), 3.6% variance in Socio-Cultural Degradation ( β = 0.18, p <0.01), and 8.8% variance in Economic Environment ( β = 0.29, p <0.01).

The study analyzes the applied two-step hierarchal regression. In the first step, Tourism Growth and Government Interventions were treated as independent variables, and their significant impact was measured. In the second step, the interaction term Tourism and Growth× Government Interventions was added, and its impact was measured. The results suggest that Government Interventions and Support moderate the relationship between Tourism Growth and the Environmental variables (Table 5 ).

The study has reported unique findings regarding tourism and its environmental impacts. We found that tourism growth and development generate economic activity on the one hand. However, it has specific adverse environmental and socio-cultural outcomes on the other hand as well. Our study revealed that tourism growth and development predict a 4.1% variance in Depletion of Natural Resources ( β = 0.202*, p <0.01). This suggests that due to the expansion of tourism in the country, natural resources are continuously depleted to meet the needs of tourists. Studies also supported our findings and suggested that revival and reinvigoration of infrastructure in tourism areas were backed up by extensive deforestation, use of local green land, rebuilding of the road network, displacement of biodiversity, and overtaxing the consumption of water and other natural resources (Qamar and Baloch 2017 ; Sadiq 2021 ; Dogar et al. 2021 ). The prior studies are consistent with our hypothesis that “tourism development and growth significantly affect natural environment resources.”

We further found that tourism growth and development predict a 3.9% variance in pollution ( β = 0.198*, p <0.01), suggesting that tourism expansion may pollute the natural environment. Furthermore, recent national statistics depict that major human activities at local tourism destinations such as Kalam, Sawat, Muree, and Northern Areas have accumulated solid waste and sewage, resulting in polluted air and water. Further, research also suggests that the overflow of tourists to tourist destinations may adversely affect the environment due to human activities (Noordzij et al. 2020 ; Slater et al. 2020 ; Andlib and Salcedo-Castro  2021 ; Callaghan et al. 2021 ). Thus, it is safe to argue that the growth of tourism has a particularly detrimental effect on the environment. These findings also support our hypothesis, “Tourism development and growth significantly contribute to environmental pollution.”

The results reported that tourism growth and development predict a 6% variance in Physical Effects on the Ecosystem ( β = 0.245*, p <0.01). Studies have reported that deforestation and alteration in species’ natural environment for tourism facilities construction may adversely affect environmental health (Kuvan, 2010 ; Azam et al. 2018 ; Hoang et al. 2020 ; Andlib and Salcedo-Castro  2021 ). During post-terrorism and post-Covid-19 times in Pakistan, millions of local tourists moved to popular tourist destinations that required new infrastructure to accommodate these tourists. Consequently, colossal deforestation and other detrimental human activities have negatively affected ecosystem. These findings also support our hypothesis that tourism development and growth significantly affect the physical ecosystem of the environment.

The study reported a total of 3.6% variance in socio-cultural degradation ( β = 0.189*, p <0.01) due to tourism growth and development. These findings suggest that tourism’s growth and development may lead the inhabitants to imitate the foreign tourists regarding their living standards, which may endanger their traditional culture. Thus, our hypothesis that “tourism development and growth significantly affect the socio-cultural environment” is confirmed.

Further, it was found that tourism growth and development predict an 8.8% variance in the economic environment ( β = 0.297*, p <0.01). It is established from the literature that tourism growth and development generate economic activity in the country. Development projects such as the construction of infrastructure, hotels, and road networks generate economic activity to facilitate international and indigenous tourists, positively affecting the community’s living standard (Baloch et al. 2020 ). Thus, our hypothesis, “tourism development and growth significantly affect economic environment of people and community,” is confirmed.

Due to tourism growth and development, our study reported a 1.8% variance in Government Support and Interventions ( β = .133*, p <0.01). However, more recently, the Government of Pakistan has devised specific interventions that may help curb the adverse impacts of detrimental environmental factors. For example, developmental schemes such as the Billion Trees Plantation drive and Road-Infrastructure Network Development under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor initiative may prove moderators to curb the negative impacts of tourism growth on the environment (Qamar and Baloch 2017 ; Rauf et al. 2019 ; Siddiqui and Siddiqui 2019 ). Therefore, the hypothesis, Government policy and support, significantly moderates the relationship between tourism development and growth with the environment is confirmed based on these findings.

Suggested model for ecotourism framework

Through its detailed review of existing literature, prevailing tourism policies, and empirical inputs from the stakeholders’ perspectives, the study has identified a wide range of obstacles limiting the development and growth of ecotourism in Pakistan. The study suggests National Tourism Management authorities carefully invest in ecotourism destination’s planning and development in coordination with the environment development agency. The suggested model for ecotourism framework is initially meant for the tourism destinations specifically designated for ecotourism. However, selected points can also be extended to the quality management parameters set for the National Parks, Conservation and Protracted Areas, Museums, National or International event sites, etc. The national tourism authorities are to lay particular emphasis in their forthcoming National Tourism Policy on the development and promotion of Sustainable Ecotourism having, with focus on the following key areas:

Identify and classify four to five ecotourism destinations, including ecotourism-centered activities of value chains for priority development, which are administratively possible within budgetary constraints. However, the development plan shall consider the integral benefits of other developmental schemes such as the Billion Trees Plantation drive, Road-Infrastructure Network Development under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor initiative, International Union for Conservation of Nature (ICUN) programs in the area.

While staying within the alignment of UN Millennium Development Goals (MDG) calling for ‘environmental sustainability’ and the development vision of each designated destination, the Tourists Management System shall take into cognizance of issues like managing capacity of the place, quality parameters for the conservation of the environment, and allowable activities thereof.

Identify degenerated destinations of religious, socio-cultural, or historical significance for their rehabilitation under the Regenerated tourism program.

Tourism Destinations that have been over-consumed and exhausted (e.g., Murree, Galiaat, Naran, Malam Jabba) because of over-tourism shall be planned for their reclamation through regenerated tourism. However, to facilitate the success of the regeneration of their tourism potential following is to be catered for:

To deflect the tourist pressure upon these destinations, the potential tourists from nearby cities and metropolitan areas be provided with nearby alternative destinations for leisure tourism as stay-tourism sites.

To prevent the environment from air pollution, the traffic load on the destination be curtailed through an effective traffic management strategy, provision of off-destination parking for combustion engine vehicles, and encouraging electric driven or hybrid vehicles for nearby parking.

Provision of clean drinking water through public infiltration plants, public toilets, solid waste carriers, and recycling of sewage and used water is recommended in the most visited areas of the destination.

Signposting at appropriate places, giving social messages encouraging to maintain cleanliness, avoid littering, ensure nature conservation, and humility toward biodiversity.

Develop all-inclusive, comprehensive execution plans to expedite the investments for the sustainable ecotourism, encouraging public–private cooperation, community involvement, and infrastructure mapping guaranteeing environmental conservation and safeguards.

Develop and place on the ground an all-inclusive program of capacity building for sustainable ecotourism, regenerative and green tourism services.

Develop and launch Pakistan tourism profile and Sustaining Ecotourism obligatory framework “to promote tourism on the one hand and nurture conscious ecological behavior among the potential tourists of the area”.

In order to fetch local ownership for the ecotourism center developments, all efforts shall be made to share the socio-economic benefits integral to the development scheme with the local population for community development.

As part of the destination management planning, identify complementary value chains and livelihood activities that could be developed as part of the overall ecotourism destination package.

Governments at all levels and the tourism Development and Promotion Agencies Network in Pakistan shall join hands to chalk out and, with a strict enforcement mechanism, a “Regulatory Framework for Ecotourism Friendly Destination” to sustain the efforts and policies undertaken in this regard on the one hand and generate responsible behavior from the tourism stakeholders on the other. Some of the suggestive points could be:

Setting new quality standards facilitating the promotion of ecotourism and environmental sustainability through acts of various bodies operating in the Ecotourism value chain, such as:

Revision of Private hotels Management Act (1976) and Tourists Operators Act (1976) alongside introduction and promulgation of a new “Tourism Destination Management Act” incorporating new quality standards as of today.

Promulgating laws to make all new construction/development projects responsible from any agency in the area, incorporating quality standards needed for environmental sustainability, and promoting ecotourism.

Set measures for the preservation of the local biodiversity and preservation of endangered species, including seeking support from internationally active environment conservation agencies, declaring local hunting illegal, introducing licensing programs for hunting of certain selected animals/ birds on the payment of a handsome amount to be used for the welfare of the local community.

Create awareness programs against deforestation, land conservation, and biodiversity, and maintain cleanliness, inculcating a culture of respecting and enjoying nature instead of spoiling it.

Conclusion, implications, and limitations of the study

The study premise was based on the contention that sustenance of ecotourism focuses on the economic viability of the business interests alongside the conservation and preservation of natural ecosystems, including ethical fairness to the socio-cultural environment of the host community. Ecotourism is a phenomenon that contributes to environmental sustainability through well-planned and careful destination management capable of balancing conflicting interests of business growth and environmental sustainability. Tourism-environment paradox suggests that the sustainability and survival of both are dependent upon the flourishing mode of each other. Quality of environment and sustainability of bio-ecosystem stimulates tourists’ arrivals and over-tourism beyond capacity with irresponsible behavior from tourists negatively influencing the environment and harming the ecosystem of nature. Ecotourism is not inevitably sustainable unless it is economically sustainable and environmentally maintainable besides being socio-culturally acceptable. Socio-culturally intolerable ecotourism means the activity which does not benefit locals and their socio-cultural values. Hence, the study concludes that ecotourism has to positively interplay between economy, environment, and culture without compromising one over others. The pursuit of sustainable ecotourism is not an end in meeting the little comforts of the business interests but rather a means to end the sustainability issues created due to ill-conceived tourism development and unmanageable growth.

Practical implications

Drawing from the findings and conclusions of the research, the study extends the following practical implications for effectively managing the process of tourism development and environmental sustainability in line with the dictates of the philosophy behind ecotourism:

Paradoxically tourism necessitates ecological capitals as primary ingredients for the creation of tourism experiences on the one hand. However, it is also contingent upon the conservation and preservation of ecological integrity on the other. The study suggests that unbalancing this “resource paradox” results in the harshness and tenacity of adversarial climate change, natural calamities, environmental pollution, and endangered biodiversity.

The research findings and the suggested framework for ecotourism imply that sustainable ecotourism principles-based planning is mandatory for destination management to assure effective trade-off between the business interests’ sustainability of the environmental ecosystem.

Tourism development and growth shall be steered through ecotourism principles as its sustainable model offers enduring social, environmental and economic, ecological integrity, and social and cultural benefits for the local community. Therefore, ecotourism is a recipe for preventing environmental degradation and guarantees sustainability of ecosystems nature and its biodiversity. Hence, ecotourism shall stand central priority focus for strategic management to nurture quality experiences from sustainable tourism.

To revive back the sustainability of the environment, in the areas where over-tourism has degraded the environment, schemes for regenerated tourism shall be immediately launched to mitigate the negative footprints on the sustainability of destinations, including reinforcing protracted conservation sites, biodiversity, and recouping endangered species, afforestation drives, recycling of water and solid waste, refurnishing of landscaping, preservation, and rehabilitation of cultural heritage and refurbishing of depleted infrastructure accordingly. Furthermore, to regenerate and sustain the tourism infrastructure of the destinations experiencing over-tourism, capacity building measures like capacity, recycling of water and solid waste, preventive measures to control air and water pollution, traffic control management, and spread of entertainment facilities shall be the focus of the regeneration plans.

The study implies that government authorities and policymakers have a special role in placing their moderating intervention in terms of policy guidelines, regulatory framework, and budgetary support, provision of inter-organizational synergy in planning and implementation of ecotourism strategies, protection of environmental resource base and conservation of natural and biological ecosystem, sustenance of socio-cultural value of local community over and above their economic and social well-being/quality life for the long run.

The study also implies that public and private policymakers lay down threshold criteria for responsible travel and tourism standards for destination management and its related supply chain. The laid criterion would facilitate management in nurturing “responsible behavior” to plan, protect, conserve, preserve, and sustain natural and cultural resources and responsible socio-economic development without compromising the sustainability of the environment and long-term well-being of the hoist community. The deep-seated adherence to social responsibility protocols by the tourism supply chain network can significantly increase the capacity of tourism destinations and improve the conscious awareness of green consumers along the tourism supply chain. Furthermore, the consciously responsible behavior among stakeholders and legislatures can strike a needed balance between the business interests and environments in favor of sustainability of socio-cultural, economic, and natural capital.

The study elucidates that responsible behavior necessitates purpose-built eco-friendly infrastructure and policy parameters to support the sustainability of environments across destinations. The strategic planning aligned with the sustainability-focused objectives dictates the need for artistic, innovative, and talented people and quality intuitions in harnessing quality tourism services and responsible tourism behavior. Furthermore, the study encourages community involvement in the developmental process, enactment of structural policies, preservation of socio-cultural heritage, and conservation of natural biodiversity as it would foster emotional bondage between the people of the host community and the tourism undertakings. Therefore, community and value chain managers shall collaborate to maximize the perceived benefits of responsible tourism while developing cultural exchanges and planning opportunities for leisure and tourism.

Regulatory measures help offset negative impacts; for instance, controls on the number of tourist activities and movement of visitors within protected areas can limit impacts on the ecosystem and help maintain the integrity and vitality of the site. Limits should be established after an in-depth analysis of the maximum sustainable visitor capacity. Furthermore, the variables and the constructs researched can be replicated to other destinations to seek valuable inputs for sustainable destination management elsewhere.

Study limitation

Besides the functional, practical applications, the study has some limitations. Besides having integral disadvantages of cross-sectional research, the respondents selected for the study were visitors on peak days with the highest tourist arrivals, thereby having experiences of a higher degree of environmental pollution and natural disorder. Furthermore, the research is limited to stakeholders’ perspectives instead of any scientifically generated data or mathematical or econometric model.

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Abasyn University, Peshawar, Pakistan

Qadar Bakhsh Baloch & Syed Naseeb Shah

Air University School of Management, Air University, Islamabad, Pakistan

Nadeem Iqbal

Department of Commerce, Bahauddin Zakariya University, Multan, Pakistan

Muhammad Sheeraz

IBA, Gomal University, Dera Ismail Khan, Pakistan

Muhammad Asadullah

University of Sialkot, Sialkot, Pakistan

Sourath Mahar

Islamia College University Peshawar, Peshawar, Pakistan

Asia Umar Khan

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Contributions

QBB: conceptualization, methodology, writing—original draft. SNS: data curation and supervision. NI: visualization, editing, proofreading. MS: review and editing. MA: review and editing. SM: editing, data curation. AUK: review and editing.

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Correspondence to Nadeem Iqbal .

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Baloch, Q.B., Shah, S.N., Iqbal, N. et al. Impact of tourism development upon environmental sustainability: a suggested framework for sustainable ecotourism. Environ Sci Pollut Res 30 , 5917–5930 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-022-22496-w

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Received : 14 December 2021

Accepted : 08 August 2022

Published : 19 August 2022

Issue Date : January 2023

DOI : https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-022-22496-w

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