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Economy of Pakistan – Challenges and Prospects (CSS Essay)

Table of Contents

1. Introduction

Pakistan today, confronts multiple challenges which vary in intensity. Some of the challenges appear to be multi-dimensional and complex in nature which certainly will take many years to overcome. Interestingly, a few of the problems and challenges have been self-inflicted by the powerhouses that have caused a widespread socio-economic damage to this country. This way, the poor economy of Pakistan remains the chieftain among the challenges since the country’s birth. The weak and fragile structure and the picture of the economy of Pakistan are what inevitably produce other inter-linked social challenges, such as poverty and corruption.

One gets to know that ever-rising inflation, increasing unemployment, shrinking GDP and diminishing exports level are the major obstacles which restrict the ability of Pakistan to have a well-developed and flourishing economy. According to the Economic Survey of Pakistan 2016-17, the inflation rate in Pakistan grew to 5.02% from 4.78%; GDP growth rate went up to 4.71% from 4.04%; unemployment rate declined to 5.9% from 6%; interest rate is 5.75% which remains the same. Although the economic indicators are, by the large, not appreciable but a slight increase in GDP seems to be the positive development.

2. An Overview.

In 1947, Pakistan had 30 million people with per capita income of 100$. Agriculture accounted for almost 50% of economic output with hardly any manufacturing, as all industries were located in India. Therefore, it was unable to feed 30 million people and was dependent on PL-480 imports from the USA. From thereon, Pakistan has come a long way. Today with 170 million people, our per capita income in 2008 was 1000$ which was ten times more. Pakistan is the third largest exporter of rice in the world and producing enough food grains to feed its people. 3 million tons of rice is exported every year by Pakistan which is surplus to our requirements. Pakistan is also one of the five major textile producing countries in the world. So if we measure in relation to where we were vis-à-vis structure of economy, agriculture has come down from 50% to 20%. Therefore, out of total national income, agriculture’s contribution is just 20%, but instead of being deficient in food production, we are actually surplus and that is what productivity means i.e. by using the same land you produce more from the same inputs, that is how economic growth takes place. Agriculture is not only crops, within agriculture there has been a significant change. Livestock, dairy, mutton, beef, poultry and similar other products is 50% of agriculture output in Pakistan. Pakistan also produces third largest quantity of milk in the world. So within agriculture sector, there is a change i.e. major crops are only 36% of agriculture value added and 14% are minor crops, fisheries, orchards, fruits and vegetables. Thus, we are moving in a direction where the same land and same resources are being used more efficiently in order to produce more. As a contrast, agriculture is only 2.5% in the US having a population of 300 million, out of which they not only feed the entire population, but also export to the rest of the world. Therefore, it is important to understand that when it is said that agriculture is producing/contributing more, it is the productivity of agriculture rather than the share of agriculture in GDP. Manufacturing and industry now account for 25% of the income; when we recall there was not even a single industry worth its name at the time of partition. So if we look where we were and where we are, I think the justification for Pakistan in terms of betterment of economic conditions of Muslims in this part is very strong. But where we have failed is that we have not lived up to our potential. In 1969, Pakistan exports of manufactured goods were higher than the combined exports of Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines and Thailand. In 1960’s Korea emulated Pakistan in its five years planning process. The tragedy is that even a country such as Vietnam which was completely devastated by the war has now overtaken Pakistan. Ten years ago, India which was way behind Pakistan (till 1990’s) is now way ahead. As an economist and student of globalization, the biggest challenge is: how can we organize ourselves to reach that position where at least we can be running not at the nine second a mile but at least ten second a mile race which is going on in the global economy.

3. Challenges to Pakistan’s Economy

(a) we consume more and save less..

People in Pakistan save only 14 pc of their monthly salary generally while worldwide, the average standard of savings is 27 pc. This is the contrast as to why we are in serious difficulty because as a nation this is a problem which we have to recognize. We have to at least double on savings rate otherwise we will remain dependent on foreign sources.

In Pakistan educated people are also more likely to keep their savings at home instead of in the banks.

This was disclosed by Standard Chartered Bank’s study ‘Emerging Affluent Consumers in Asia – The Race to Save’. This survey was conducted in 8 countries including China, Hong Kong, Singapore, India, Taiwan, Korea, Kenya and Pakistan. The survey further said that emerging affluent consumers in Asia could boost their savings by an average of 42 per cent if they move from a basic savings approach to a low-risk wealth management strategy.

(b) We Import More and Export Less.

Pakistan’s trade deficit has hit a record level of 30 billion US dollars in the first 11 months of 2016-17, showing a jump of 42 per cent as compared to the same period in the previous financial year. Exports have declined by three per cent to 18.5 billion US dollars while imports have gone up by 21 per cent to 48.5 billion US dollars. As a nation we prefer to use even the basic commodities of foreign countries rather than locally manufactured goods. Unless we do not change this attitude of preferring the imported goods we have to keep on relying on outsiders to fill in this gap b/w our imports and exports. Relying on outsiders’ means that there are cycles, ups, and downs i.e. when things are good, one gets financing, and when things are bad one starves for financing. No nation which strives to preserve its honour must go through this particular route. The lower is this gap between our export earnings and expenditure on imports – and that can be achieved only by expending our exports; our reliance on external sources would be reduced.

(c) Government spends more than it earns as Revenues.

Fiscal deficit is the difference between the revenues which are collected in a year and the total expenditure incurred by the Government. Pakistan’s government takes away 20% of national income as its own. 80% is left in the private sector and 20% in the hands of the government is spent on defence, debt servicing, development on education, health, general administration etc. Country’s budget deficit, a gap between expenditures and revenues, was recorded at 5.8 percent of the GDP during FY2017 as against the target of 3.8 percent of the GDP. In expenditures, the government had spent Rs888.1 billion on the country’s defence. Similarly, a massive amount of Rs1348.4 billion was spent on paying the country’s interest on domestic as well as foreign borrowings. The government had earmarked Rs.1,360 billion in annual budget for paying interest on domestic as well as foreign loans during fiscal year that started from July 2016 and ended in June 2017. The revenue generated is only 15% of the GDP at best, and in the worst days it is 12 to 13%. Out of the every rupee of income received by a Pakistani, on average, tax paid is only 9 paisas and 91 paisas remain with the individual. In 2007-2008, Pakistan’s fiscal deficit was more than 7% which means its income or revenues were only 13% of GDP whereas, expenditures were 20%. Therefore, fiscal deficits have to be financed from somewhere, so how do you finance them; you either go again begging the external donors, or to the State bank of Pakistan. The financing provided by the State bank of Pakistan is dangerous because it creates high inflation in the economy, which is injurious to the middle class, those earning fixed wages and salaries, and the poor. Therefore, there is an uproar in the country if the inflation rate goes up. Continuing large fiscal deficits year after year may plunge the country into debt trap again.

(d) Our Share in the World Trade is shrinking.

In 1990, Pakistan’s share was 0.2% of the world trade. After 20 years it has come down to 0.12% in a very buoyant world economy. World trade has been growing faster as compared to the world output. India in the same period had doubled its share from 0.7% to 1.4%, while Pakistan is going the other way and that is the reason why exports/imports imbalance is increasing. We are not taking advantage of the opportunities which a buoyant world economy is providing. Pakistan is stuck with only a few commodities – textiles, leather, rice, sports, goods and the surgical goods. We have not entered the markets for more dynamic products. All our exports are to a few markets – the USA, EU and the Middle East. So this narrow export base and very limited geographical spread are not allowing us to expand our share. Unless we improve the quality of our products, go out and do the marketing abroad, invest in research and development, the prospects do not look promising. That is why we are lagging behind other countries which from way back are over taking Pakistan.

(e) We Badly Lag in Social Indicators.

One of the most glaring weaknesses is that a country like Pakistan that should have had best indicators in literacy, infant mortality, fertility rates, in access to water supply, in primary enrolment ratios has social indicators which are more comparable to Africa rather than to the countries of similar per capita income. Even Tajikistan, which is a very poor country, has better literacy rate and primary enrolment ratios than Pakistan. What does it means? It means that if we had literacy rate of 100% instead of 55%, then in 2009-2010 our per capita income would have been 2000$ rather than 1000$. Instead of 30 million middle class in Pakistan we would have 60-70 million middle class people; we would have poverty reduced to 15-20%. We have committed to achieve the millennium development goals by 2015 i.e. we will be able to reach 80-85% literacy rate, but it is doubtful that this will happen. Why do we have regional inequalities? Why Baluchistan is lagging behind other provinces? It is because of literacy rates and primary enrolment ratios. There is a direct correlation between regional inequities and backwardness with the level of education.

(f) We Face Energy and Water Shortages.

Another challenge we face today is energy and water shortages, and that is not because we are not generating enough electricity or we are not having enough water. With the losses of KESC from the point it has generated to the point they realize the billing is 45%, so 55% people are paying for those who are stealing the electricity. Government of Pakistan out of its own limited resources is paying 200 billion rupees every year as subsidies for electricity. Our industry is at a disadvantage that they get the orders from foreign countries but they cannot execute the orders because there are electricity outages. In addition to economic losses it also creates inconvenience for pursuing normal life. We have silting of our dams, but no additional dams have been constructed since Tarbela in 1974. We have water course losses of about 20-25%. Even after these losses, the water is inequitably distributed. The influential land lords are able to take greater share of water from the canals as compared to poor farmers. Therefore, the productivity of poor farmer is only one ton per acre as compared to 3 tons by large holders. If we provide the water equitably to the small farmer, he would also be able to increase the productivity from one to at least two tons resulting into additional income, increase in exports of food grains, cotton and fruits and vegetables which will add to export earnings of Pakistan. With the climate change taking place with all the glaciers in Himalayas which are going to melt, we are going to have difficulties in future due to global warming.

(g) Cost of Doing Business is High.

Pakistan has slipped three places on the Word Bank’s Ease of Doing Business Index 2017 and is now ranked a lowly 147th among 190 economies, denting the government’s pro-business image ahead of next general elections. The index is mostly used as a guide by foreign investors to learn more about a country, aiding decisions on pouring in money in the economy. Pakistan, however, slipped from its last year’s rating despite the introduction of some reforms in areas of starting a business and making international trade relatively easier. If one government department is to be blamed for the overall poor performance, it is the Ministry of Finance, as the country’s ranking nosedived on the indicators of paying taxes and getting credit. Pakistan lost 16 positions on the indicator of paying taxes, standing at 172, according to the 2018 report. Last year, Pakistan’s ranking was 156. One of the reasons behind the dismal performance was the increase in overall tax rates that surged to 33.8% of total profits. Lack of coordination among various government agencies, innumerable laws and regulations that are antiquated and outdated have proved to be serious impediments. Labour laws, inspections by multiple agencies, the delays in the court system, infringement of intellectual property rights and evasion of taxes by competing firms in the informal sector have rendered some of the well-established firms unprofitable, or the feasibility of starting near ventures questionable.

(h) Crisis of Governance and Implementation Weaknesses.

If we glance on policy documents of various governments on education, agriculture, health, trade policy etc, and look at the same policy forty years ago and the problems, there is hardly any significant record of implementation of those policies or plans over this period. We produce five years plans and all kinds of medium term frameworks, but it is the poor governance and implementation that are the weak links in getting things done. Unless we strengthen civil services and bring about a merit based system of recruitment, promotion, performance evaluation, compensation, disciplinary action, etc, we will not be able to see any difference in the quality of governance. Orders are given by the higher ups but they are not carried out; summaries are approved, but they remain buried in the files and therefore; whether it is education, health, water supply, revenue or law and order, you can pin down the problem to the governance issues. Unless we fix the governance issue, the economy is not going to take off at the speed which is required.

(i) Uncertainty and Unpredictability due to Lack of Continuity.

Every government whether military or civilian starts with a clean slate, as if nothing happened before them and nothing will happen after them. This is not the way the real world works. You take the projects and programmes which were initiated by the previous governments, evaluate them as to what the strengths and weaknesses were, fix those weaknesses and carry them forward. It will take only few years to bring these inherited projects to completion and the country will benefit from new motor ways, new ports, highways, educational institutions etc. But the blame game of successive governments results into abrupt termination of all such projects and programs. When these are resumed the cost has escalated three times and it takes several additional years to complete them. In the meanwhile the people of Pakistan suffer because of this lack of continuity. When faced with such unpredictability about the future, the investors are pondering whether they should invest in this country as they are uncertain whether the new government when comes in would stop or alter what the previous government was doing, or adhere to the commitments made to them. Take the example of Higher Education Commission, which was sending 1700 students for PhDs abroad but the new government comes in and suspends the funding of those programmes. This solved down the process of faculty development for our universities at a time when we should have been sending twice as many scholars.

(j) Political Stability, Law and Order/Security.

The overall arching theme is that for a robust economy we should have political stability, law and order and security. The Armed Forces of Pakistan deserve gratitude for what they have done in Malakand Division to bring about stability as far as the law and order situation is concerned. The sooner the country is gotten rid of this image of political instability, poor law and order situation and insecurity, whereby investors from all over the world hesitate in coming to Pakistan and invest, we will not be able to make any progress in this country. In 2007, Pakistan was one of the most favorite countries among the international investor community. A thirty year piece of paper was floated, which was a bond for Pakistan to be paid in 2037 and Pakistan got four times over subscription at a price which was only 300 basis points above the US treasury. Very few countries can claim to have that kind of credibility with international fund managers. However, in two years’ time we have missed that boat. Therefore, it is imperative that we resume the journey which has been interrupted by nurturing a stable, secure and peaceful political environment.

4. Prospects/Solutions to Improve Economy

How can we overcome these challenges and problems and improve our economy? A lot has been written and talked about, but I will focus on only a few action points.

(a) Change in National Psyche and Mindset.

We as a nation are too much negative oriented and too much cynical where we find everything wrong in this country. Unless we change our mindset and unless everybody who is doing what he is supposed to do, carries out his or her task with sincerity and honesty, we are not going to go anywhere. We should not expect any Messiah to come and fix our problems we have to do it ourselves individually and collectively. There are no short cuts available. Media is muddying the water by their sensational stories and inviting so called experts who contribute in projecting negative thinking and negative national psyche. Unless we have a positive “can do” mentality, it will be difficult to progress. Unless each one of us changes our mindset rather than blame the government and the system, we are not going to go anywhere in this race for global economic survival. This is easier said than done. But I expect our younger generation to be more responsive and responsible.

(b) Building up of Human Capital.

There is no substitute to building up human capital. Private sector, public sector, NGOs, local communities, philanthropists etc, all here to put their hands on deck and participate in making sure that every child goes to school. Every high school graduate has some technical and vocational skill or goes for higher education. Unless we build up human capital, we are just going to be left behind because the world economy is going to be a knowledge based economy. It is not an economy where you memorize material or reproduce that in the exam and forget about it – that is no longer the case. One has to acquire the knowledge and use it in order to apply to problem solving. This is a new paradigm where human capital is as important as machinery and equipment. Pakistan lags behind other countries in the institutions, infrastructure and incentives for human capital formation. We have no choice but to accelerate the pace to catch up with others.

(c) Use of Technology.

The technology is spreading like a wild fire. How many people five years ago could have thought that even in a small towns and villages of Pakistan, one would access to mobile telephones. 95 million Pakistanis have mobile phones today. You can use this technology in order to provide those banking services, information on climate/weather, agriculture extension, health, education etc. It is a powerful tool which can leapfrog a lot of time which we have wasted. Using technology particularly the information/communication technology for the betterment of social and economic problems of Pakistan is something which needs to be done but it cannot be done the way we have compartmentalized this into different ministries. A more holistic and comprehensive approach that deploys technology for poverty reduction has to be put in place.

(d) Young Labour Force.

Pakistan is one of the few countries which has a young labour force which can be harnessed for its own and global economy. Pakistan’s youth cohort makes up over 60 per cent of the population , providing Pakistan an opportunity to leverage their strategic position in order to enhance the country’s economic growth Japan, Europe, USA and after 2050 China are going to have aging population where the ratio of old to young people is going to increase. India and Pakistan are two countries where the ratio of younger people to the older ones is going to increase. If we tool these young men and women properly, we increase the female labour force participation, give them skills and knowledge, they can become the labour force for the rest of the world. This will give a big boost to Pakistan’s own economy. In 2001, worker remittances were less than a billion dollars; today we have almost 7-8 billion dollars. Now this can be multiplied by three or four times if we have educated labour force i.e. skilled labour force going for overseas employment. This is also a way to create employment opportunities because if you have large number of younger people coming to labour force and you don’t have job opportunities for them you can have social upheaval. Therefore, it is imperative to create employment opportunities for them and one of the avenues is to train them in the kind of the skills which are needed not only by the national economy but also by the international economy.

(e) Governance, Devolution and Decentralization.

As the population is increasing, one cannot govern Pakistan sitting in Islamabad, Karachi, Lahore, Peshawar or Quetta. One has to devolve powers, decentralize and delegate authority, provide resources to the local/district governments so that they can take decisions at their own. Those decisions would be very much in accordance with the requirements and the needs of those communities. Sitting in Islamabad one cannot visualize what is needed in Chaghi or Loralai, but the people in Loralai and Chaghi know exactly whether they need water, fertilizers or fruit processing industry. Let us devolve powers to the people at the grassroots level and there would be much better allocation and utilization of resources. There must, however, be accountability of the local governments by the provincial governments and of provincial governments by the federal government but not interference or usurpation of powers. If we do that, then a lot more can happen with same amount of resources which are being wasted today, and the economic growth rate can be raised from 6-7 percent average to 8-9 percent annually.

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An Economic Crisis in Pakistan Again: What’s Different This Time?

Photo: AAMIR QURESHI/AFP/Getty Images

Critical Questions by Daniel F. Runde and Ambassador Richard Olson

Published October 31, 2018

Pakistan’s newly-elected government is already dealing with a balance of payments crisis, which has been a consistent theme for the nation’s newly elected officials. Pakistan’s structural problems are homegrown, but what is different this time around is an added component of Chinese debt. Pakistan is the largest Belt and Road (BRI) partner adding another creditor to its already complicated economic situation.

Pakistan’s system is ill-equipped to make changes which would avoid future excessive debt. A bailout from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is probably the safest bet for the country although it is unclear whether the United States will support the program. How Pakistan decides to handle its debt crisis could provide insight into how the U.S., IMF, and China will resolve development issues in the future. Beijing is a relatively new player in the development finance world so much is to be learned from how it deals with Pakistan and how it could possibly maneuver in other developing countries in Asia, Africa, and Latin America.

Q1: What is Pakistan’s current financial and economic situation?

A1: Pakistan held its most recent elections in July 2018. The Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf party gained over 100 seats in the parliament, and its founder Imran Khan , a famous cricket team captain, was installed as prime minister. Prime Minister Khan has inherited a balance of payments crisis , the third one in the last 10 years. By the end of June 2018, Pakistan had a current account deficit of $18 billion , nearly a 45 percent increase from an account deficit of $12.4 billion in 2017. Exorbitant imports (including those related to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)) and less-than-projected inflows (export revenues and remittances) have led to a current account deficit widening, with foreign currency reserves levels covering less than two months of imports—pushing Pakistan towards a difficult economic situation .

Part of Pakistan’s financial crisis stems from the fact that 2018 was a poor year for emerging markets. Global monetary tightening, increased oil prices, and reduced investor confidence have negatively impacted the country’s already precarious economic situation. But the country’s deep structural problems and weak macroeconomic policies have further exposed the economy to an array of debt vulnerabilities.

Pakistan has had an overvalued exchange rate, low interest rates, and subdued inflation over the last few years. This loose monetary policy has led to high domestic demand, with two-thirds of Pakistan’s economic growth stemming from domestic consumption. An overvalued exchange rate has led to a very high level of imports and low level of exports. Pakistan’s high fiscal deficit was accelerated even further in 2017 and 2018 because elections have historically caused spending to rise (both of the most recent fiscal crises followed elections). Perhaps the greatest financial issues facing Pakistan are its pervasive tax evasion and chronically low level of domestic resource mobilization. Taxes in Pakistan comprise less than 10 percent of GDP , a far cry from the 35 percent of countries that are part of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). Pakistan also suffers from impediments in the energy sector through frequent and widespread power outages that hurt its competitiveness.

In Western media, Chinese investment is often cited as the main driver of Pakistan’s debt crisis. This is somewhat true as China’s BRI makes Pakistan a key partner through the shared CPEC. The CPEC is a $60 billion program of infrastructure, energy and communication projects that aims to improve connectivity in the region. CPEC infrastructure costs have certainly placed a greater debt burden on Pakistan, but the current structural problems are homegrown; the root cause of the energy shortages is now less a matter of power generation, and more of fiscal mismanagement of the power sector .

Q2: What are Pakistan’s options?

A2: Pakistan appears to be in perpetual crisis-mode, and for too long the Pakistani government has been overly reliant on U.S. bilateral assistance. While it may not be the first choice of the Pakistani government, an IMF bailout is the most likely outcome of this financial crisis because it is probably the only path for Pakistan to regain its macroeconomic stability. Any “bailout” from a bilateral donor (meaning China or Pakistan’s Gulf State friends, including Saudi Arabia which has recently provided Pakistan $3 billion for a period of one year as balance-of-payment support) will not get at the root issues that Pakistan faces—its loose macroeconomic, fiscal, and monetary policies. Pakistan needs to get its house in order and remedy many of its domestic economic issues. 18 out of Pakistan’s 21 IMF programs over the last 60 years have not been completed despite obtaining over $30 billion in financial support across those programs. Just like today’s current financial crisis, Pakistan’s last two IMF packages (in 2008 and 2013) were also negotiated by incoming governments.

Q3: Would the U.S. support a new IMF Pakistan program?

A3: The current U.S. administration and Congress would not be supportive of additional bilateral funding to Pakistan—meaning money coming directly from the United States. Since 2001, Pakistan has been the beneficiary of the U.S. Coalition Support Fund (CSF), which reimburses allies for costs incurred by war on terrorism. The CSF is used to reimburse Pakistan for U.S. military use of its network infrastructure (e.g., ports, railways, roads, airspace) so that the United States can prosecute the war in neighboring Afghanistan, as well as certain Pakistani military counter-terrorism operations. The CSF for Pakistan has been as high as $1.2 billion per year, and, in recent years, $900 million per year. With nearly $1 billion in CSF distributed every year, along with $335 million in humanitarian assistance, it will be difficult to convince Congress to appropriate more funds for a Pakistan bailout yet. However, due to inaction on the part of Pakistan to expel or arrest Taliban insurgents operating from Pakistani territory, the United States has recently cut another $300 million from the CSF, bringing the total to $850 million in U.S. assistance withheld from Pakistan this year. In fact, all security assistance to Pakistan, whether it is international military education and training, foreign military financing, or the CSF, has been suspended for this year according to one State Department official.

An IMF program for Pakistan faces resistance from some members of Congress. A group of 16 senators has already signed a letter to President Trump that outlines their opposition to bailing out Pakistan because the IMF package would, in effect, be bailing out Chinese banks.

The Trump administration has also taken a hardline stance towards assisting Pakistan with its financial crisis. Secretary of State Pompeo stated this past July that he would not support an IMF bailout that went towards paying off Chinese loans. In September, Secretary Pompeo visited Pakistan, and there were indications that the United States would not block an IMF program. If an IMF program is enacted, there is no doubt that it would have stronger conditionality and a greater insistence on full transparency of Pakistan’s debt obligations.

Q4: Would an IMF package be a bailout of the Chinese?

A4: The terms of Pakistan’s loans with China are currently unclear and multiple news outlets have reported that Pakistan has refused to share CPEC information with the IMF. However, it is not unreasonable to presume that the terms in those contracts would be more demanding than terms typically asked by the IMF. Unless the terms between Pakistan and China and its state-owned enterprises (SOEs) are disclosed and made clear to the IMF, then it is unwise for the IMF to proceed with a bailout package.

The IMF’s focus is not in projecting power and influence; rather it seeks to help struggling nations get back on their feet. The same cannot be said for China. China appears to be most interested in spreading its influence and gaining valuable assets for its military and expanding economy, while at the same time exporting its surplus capacity for infrastructure building. In its annual report to Congress, the Department of Defense reiterated this concern, “countries participating in BRI [such as Pakistan] could develop economic dependence on Chinese capital, which China could leverage to achieve its interests.”

Of Pakistan’s nearly $30 billion trade deficit, 30 percent is directly attributable to China . If China were concerned about the economic crisis in Pakistan, it would make immediate concessions which Pakistan Finance Minister Asad Umar says China is working on . To help with the crisis, China could readjust its trade surplus with Pakistan in different ways. For example, China could buy Pakistani cement and other purchases in the short term to illustrate that they are aware of and swiftly responding to the economic turmoil in Pakistan. Other nations have struggled with debt obligations to China. For instance, in July 2017, Sri Lanka signed over a 99-year lease for Hambantota Port to a Chinese SOE because of Sri Lanka’s inability to pay for BRI costs. Malaysia took a different path and decided to cancel major infrastructure projects with China in August 2018 due to worries that they would increase its debt burden .

Q5: What are the consequences if there is no IMF package?

A5: It is likely that China will provide even more assistance to broaden Pakistan’s dependency. Chinese banks and SOEs have already invested heavily into Pakistan, so much so that state bank loans have not been fully disclosed to the global community. In fact, Pakistan’s Status Report for July 2017 through June 2018 shows that Chinese commercial banks hold 53 percent of Pakistan’s outstanding commercial debt. However, that percentage may be even higher than the report depicts. While China and Pakistan have agreed to make all CPEC projects readily available to the public, the information is scattered and often left blank on essential financial reports (see July-June 2017 document ), and so it is difficult to obtain a full sense of the degree of Pakistan’s indebtedness to China. Again, much of the loan information provided by the Pakistani government, especially concerning China, is not entirely transparent.

If China chooses to follow through and become the “point person” for an assistance package, the pressure will be taken off the IMF. But, if the United States does not support an IMF package, it will forego major geopolitical potential in the region to its main competitor, China.

Pakistan represents a litmus test of all future cases in which the IMF, United States, China, and any emerging market country are all involved. Depending on how Beijing chooses to navigate Pakistan’s financial crisis, China may soon find itself responsible for rectifying the debt burdens of Zambia and many other BRI countries.

Q6: What are U.S. geopolitical “equities” in Pakistan?

A6:  The United States is invested in Pakistan because of its significant geopolitical importance.

• Pakistan is an important component of the balance of power in South Asia. Both India and Pakistan have nuclear weapons capabilities. Moreover, China, India, and Pakistan have been in dispute over the Kashmir region since 1947. Regional stability is in the interest of the United States.
• Despite its ambiguous stance on militant groups, Pakistan is ostensibly an ally of the United States because of its proximity to Afghanistan. Since the War on Terror began in 2001, Pakistan has been an active partner in the elimination of core al Qaeda within Pakistan and has facilitated aspects of the U.S. military campaign in Afghanistan.
• The United States now seeks a negotiated settlement to the conflict in Afghanistan. To accomplish this, perhaps the United States will come to Pakistan with a simple offer: “deliver the Taliban, and we will give you the IMF.”
• Whereas previous administrations may have tried to “play nice” with Pakistan, under the Trump administration, there is a chance that the U.S. government will push the IMF to adopt stricter terms for a Pakistan bailout, citing the Pakistani government’s failures of the last two programs.
• Other than strategic military importance, one of the most important national security challenges to the United States is Pakistan’s demographic trends. Currently, over 64 percent of Pakistanis are under the age of 30—the largest percentage of youth in the country’s history. Over the next 30 years, Pakistan’s population will increase by over 100 million, jumping from 190 million to 300 million by 2050 . The spike in youth population presents an opportunity for the U.S. government and private sector to increase investment in Pakistan. Pakistan’s economy must generate 1 million jobs annually for the next three decades and GDP growth rates must equal 7 percent or more per year to keep up with the population boom. Were Pakistan’s economy to collapse, the world would see the first instance of a failed state with a substantial arsenal of nuclear weapons.
• An economically healthy Pakistan could be a large market for U.S. goods and services. If the U.S.-Pakistan relationship is strained as a result of this financial crisis, it will not only harm the United States militarily but will also harm U.S. businesses and Pakistani consumers.

Q7: Should the U.S. support an IMF package to Pakistan?

A7: Given the geostrategic importance of Pakistan for the United States, we should support a package but with stronger conditionality than in 2013 along with full transparency and disclosure of its debt obligations.

Daniel F. Runde is senior vice president, director of the Project on Prosperity and Development, and holds the William A. Schreyer Chair in Global Analysis at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, D.C. Richard Olson is a non-resident senior associate at CSIS. He is the former U.S. ambassador to the United Arab Emirates and Pakistan; most recently he served as the U.S. special representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan during the Obama administration. Special thanks to CSIS Project on Prosperity and Development program coordinator Owen Murphy and intern Austin Lucas for their contributions to this analysis.

Critical Questions   is produced by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a private, tax-exempt institution focusing on international public policy issues. Its research is nonpartisan and nonproprietary. CSIS does not take specific policy positions. Accordingly, all views, positions, and conclusions expressed in this publication should be understood to be solely those of the author(s).

© 2018 by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. All rights reserved.

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An Analysis of Pakistan’s Economy in 2023

Pakistan’s Economy in 2023: Analyzing Its Challenges and Prospects

Pakistan’s economic situation in 2023 is marked by both challenges and opportunities, according to an Analysis of Pakistan’s Economy 2023. While many have suffered through difficult times economically recently, signs of growth and stability are emerging across the board.

Pakistan Is Facing 10 Economic Challenges

Pakistan’s rapid population growth – estimated at 2.2% annually – has placed additional strain on resources within the country. Leading to unemployment, poverty and inequality issues.

Pakistan suffers from inadequate infrastructure that is unable to keep pace with the growing needs of its rapidly increasing population. Hampering economic development and making it harder for businesses to compete against international rivals.

Low Tax Revenues: Pakistan suffers from an inadequate tax-to-GDP ratio. Meaning the government lacks enough revenue to finance public services and stimulate economic activity.

Deteriorating Public Finances:

Pakistan’s public finances have seen significant deterioration over the years, with budget deficit and public debt increasing significantly – exacerbating economic difficulties further.

An Ineffective Banking System and Economy:

Pakistan’s banking system is ineffective and cannot meet the needs of its population. Thus impeding economic development as businesses struggle to access funds necessary for growth.

Weak Regulatory Environment:

Pakistan suffers from an inadequate regulatory environment , which hinders economic development. Corruption and cronyism have proliferated throughout society as a result, further undermining progress toward economic advancement.

Lack of Investment in Economy:

Pakistan has not been successful at attracting sufficient foreign direct investment (FDI). An essential ingredient of economic development as it provides capital, technology, and access to new markets.

Human Capital Inadequacy:

Pakistan lacks an adequate pool of educated workers, which has limited its economic growth potential.

Poor Education:

Pakistan suffers from an inadequate educational system that has inhibited its citizens’ development of human capital and made them less competitive in global economies.

Pakistan is facing numerous security concerns that have prevented economic development, including terrorist attacks, political instability and regional tensions.

The current account deficit

Pakistan’s economy faces several serious obstacles. One being its current account deficit which has steadily been widening for several years now. This trend can be partly attributed to a large trade deficit and declining exports that has reduced foreign exchange reserves. Inflation also remains an ongoing concern as rising prices erode consumers’ purchasing power.

Pakistan’s economy has experienced substantial improvements.

Pakistan has experienced some positive economic developments despite these obstacles. Pakistan has made significant strides toward stabilizing its fiscal situation by taking measures to reduce budget deficit. And boost revenue collection, and by making efforts to attract foreign investment to spur economic growth.

Enhancing Infrastructure Development in Pakistan.

Recent years, Pakistan has also focused on strengthening its infrastructure, with particular attention being given to improving transportation and energy systems. Such investments should ultimately pay dividends by increasing productivity while simultaneously decreasing business costs in Pakistan.

Pakistan’s growing technology sector, which is driving innovation and increasing competitiveness. Pakistan boasts a vibrant startup ecosystem featuring many young entrepreneurs creating products and services which they hope can be exported abroad.

Even with these successes, however, the country still faces significant obstacles. Most notably, more must be done by government to address poverty and inequality. Two persistent issues in many parts of the country. Furthermore, improvements need to be made in business climate and make it easier for entrepreneurs to launch and expand their companies.

While Pakistan’s economic situation in 2023 presents both challenges and opportunities, there is reason for optimism. Recent progress made has resulted in some success; with continued efforts being put in to tackle its financial difficulties. It should be well positioned for building a more secure future.

Are IMF debt traps the real danger for Pakistan’s economy in 2023?

International Monetary Fund (IMF) loans have long been seen as being an economic debt trap for certain nations, such as Pakistan. Critics allege that IMF loan conditions can lead to an endless cycle of debt. And austerity measures that damage both economy and people in these nations.

Proponents of IMF programs maintain that these loans provide essential funding for countries facing economic difficulty. and that the conditions attached to these loans are essential in helping restore economic equilibrium and foster sustainable development.

Pakistan has received IMF assistance on multiple occasions in the past, though some of their conditions can be controversial. For example, Pakistan was required to implement austerity measures such as cutting spending and raising taxes that may prove challenging when facing economic instability.

Experts contend that Pakistan has benefitted greatly from IMF assistance in terms of meeting its key economic challenges, such as reducing fiscal deficit and stabilizing foreign exchange reserves. Furthermore, technical assistance was given by IMF which has helped strengthen Pakistan’s policies and institutions.

The International Monetary Fund is often seen as a debt trap for Pakistan’s economy. Though various experts hold differing viewpoints on the matter. While IMF programs can present challenges that require creative solutions and may hinder sustainable growth and stability in some instances. They can also be invaluable support in times of difficulty and provide invaluable assistance when times get rough.

Why experts consider IMF a Debt Trap?

Experts describe the International Monetary Fund as a debt trap for various reasons, including:

Conditions can be stringent:

International Monetary Fund loans come with stringent conditions that may include austerity measures and structural reforms. That can be difficult for countries to implement and can have far-reaching economic and social ramifications.

Cycle of Debt: IMF loans often carry with them strict conditions that force countries into an endless cycle of debt repayment; the country often taking on additional loans just to service previous ones. This burden of repayment is difficult to escape.

Harmful impacts on economy:

IMF-mandated austerity measures such as cutting spending and raising taxes can damage both a country’s economy and its citizens, including reduced consumer spending and economic growth.

Long-term impact on economy:

IMF loans may have significant long-term repercussions for an economy and its citizens. For instance, cutting spending on social programs may worsen poverty and inequality, while decreasing public sector size could have adverse effects on job creation and economic development.

Unwanted focus on development:

Critics contend that the IMF’s emphasis on macroeconomic stability and fiscal discipline can come at the expense of development and poverty reduction efforts that are vital components of long-term growth and stability.

Experts often refer to the IMF as a debt trap due to its stringent loan conditions and subsequent debt cycle, harmful effects on economies and citizens, long-term consequences, and lack of focus on development.

Will Pakistan be able to increase economic growth over the coming years?

Forecasting Pakistan’s economy can be difficult, but certain factors could have an effect on its ability to expand in coming years.

Political Stability: An attractive political environment is essential to attracting investment and supporting economic expansion. If Pakistan can maintain stability through reforms that foster an enabling business environment, its economy could see substantial improvements.

Reforms: Over the past several years, Pakistan’s government has implemented numerous reforms designed to enhance tax collection, reduce budget deficits and stabilize currency exchange rates. If these reforms continue along with measures designed to spur economic development, Pakistan could improve its economic outlook significantly.

Investment: Pakistan relies heavily on foreign investment to bolster its economy. If the government can create an environment conducive to investors, attracting sufficient funds could drive economic development forward.

Export Growth: Pakistan relies heavily on exports as an engine of economic expansion; thus increasing exports will be vital if it wants to achieve sustained economic development. If the government can improve competitiveness of exports and thus boost growth and the economy simultaneously.

Infrastructure Development: Infrastructure expansion.

Investment in infrastructure such as transportation and energy systems can reduce business costs while simultaneously increasing productivity. If governments continue investing in this area, economic growth could increase significantly and open new doors for business and industry.

Conclusion In summation, Pakistan’s economic success will depend on various factors including political stability, reforms, investment decisions, export growth and infrastructure development. If the government can overcome any hurdles to sustainable economic development and create an ideal environment for sustained economic development then Pakistan may achieve sustained economic stability and growth in coming years.

Conclusion Pakistan’s economic situation in 2023 was determined by a combination of factors, including government reforms, investment decisions, export growth and infrastructure development. While political instability and austerity measures present challenges to economic progress, progress was also made with tax collection and decreasing budget deficits.

International Monetary Fund (IMF) loans have long been considered controversial in Pakistan due to their strict conditions, which can create a debt trap. Critics contend that IMF’s focus on macroeconomic stability and fiscal discipline may come at the cost of development efforts and poverty alleviation initiatives.

Pakistan’s ability to successfully diversify and strengthen its economy over the coming years will depend on several key elements, including political stability, reforms, investment decisions, export growth and infrastructure development. If the government can maintain stability while creating an environment favorable to business and investment activity then sustained economic growth may be possible – yet with so many challenges still standing in its way it may take considerable effort and patience in order to realize lasting economic success for Pakistan.

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• The Economic Crisis of Pakistan By Dr Muhammad Khan

ASSESSING the economic indicators of Pakistan, the country is ranked 34th among 39 countries in the Asia–Pacific region.

Indeed, this positioning is very low and the overall economic score of Pakistan is below the regional and world averages.

Economy of Pakistan started slowing down in 2019 and reached its lowest ebb in July 2022. The economic freedom score of Pakistan is 48.8, grading its economy as 153rd freest in the 2022 Index.

Pakistan is facing extreme economic crisis of its history and the incumbent coalition Government is clueless to overcome the financial issues of the state.

The external debt of Pakistan has increased manifolds and its currency is trading at its lowest rate against the US dollar (1USD=225 PKR).

IMF and other financial institutions are imposing very tough conditions for the loan facility, agreed with the previous Government of Imran Khan.

In a way the economic crisis of Pakistan is getting deeper and deeper with each passing day.

The significance of economy can be imagined from a famous quote, “Economy is the start and end of everything” for every sovereign state.

Indeed, the strong economy is the source of national strength and forms the basis for a knowledgeable and resilient work-force of a nation.

In a highly globalised world, significance of the economy has further enhanced since it impacts the international relations among the nation states from the perspective of foreign policy, trade and security cooperation.

Unfortunately, despite heavy taxes and exceptionally high levies on all goods and utilities in Pakistan, there have been downward trends in the economy of Pakistan since last few years.

Despite being an agrarian economy, the essential food items are rapidly getting out of reach for over 70% Pakistani masses.

Inflation is record high and developmental sector is found wanting in all areas of socio-economic development of the state.

Budget of all developmental sectors of Pakistan has been reduced to minimum whereas non-developmental expenditure is increasing with each passing day.

Indeed, not the resources but the poor economic management is considered to be the real cause of deteriorating economy of Pakistan and downward trends in the living standards of 122 million Pakistanis.

In fact, the basic responsibility of the government of Pakistan is to identify and prioritize the problems facing the state and society of Pakistan.

Identifying the problem areas at an early time-frame and focusing to resolve them by all possible means and through better economic management could have saved the state of Pakistan from the ongoing economic crisis.

But, neither the problems identified nor any serious efforts were made to overcome the economic crisis, hurting the state and society alike.

Resultantly, once confronted by financial challenges, they resorted to rush to IMF for a possible rescue.

The IMF has imposed its own pre-conditions for revision and extension of loan to Pakistan. This includes imposition of heavy taxes and levies over the poor masses while there is no cut on the luxuries of the government officials and bureaucracy of the country.

Earlier in 2019, IMF provided 39-month loan to Pakistan under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF).

It was a total of $6 billion loan provided to support economic reform programme of Pakistan.

Despite this loan facility of IMF and other loans from many friendly countries, the incumbent and previous governments could neither reform the national economy nor did provide relief to Pakistani masses.

The government and its economic managers responsible to manage state’s economy could neither appreciate the looming financial crisis nor took timely measures to avoid the financial meltdown of Pakistan.

Resultantly, the country is heading towards an economic disaster which means a lot for a nuclear state like Pakistan.

While the national economy of Pakistan is sliding downwards, there has been unprecedented growth of the various cartels in Pakistan.

These cartels are controlling the prices and supply of all most all critical food items and petroleum products with or without consent of the government.

Indeed, government has become hostage to these internal and external cartels. In most of the cases these cartels are part of the government with sitting Ministers, MPs and advisors.

This was a case with PTI Government and there is no change in spite of regime change.

Despite investigations and proofs against their deliberate kick-backs and corruption, causing heavy losses to national economy and undesired short supply of items in the market, they stand unaccountable and scot-free.

Currently, the economic management of the state is being run through heavy and agonizing taxation system on poor masses which cannot be sustained long-term.

In fact, the economic management of nuclear Pakistan with rivalries all around and multiple fault-lines within cannot be run like a corporate company nor can it be left at the mercy of inept and non-serious economic managers whose inclination is more to ruin Pakistan than profiting it.

The way forward is: a massive restructuring of the economic management of Pakistan through serious, innovative and revolutionary steps where foreign economic dependence is reduced to minimum.

The non-developmental expenditure must be reduced substantially while imposing a ban on the luxuries of government officials, elite class and bureaucracy.

The political crisis is adding fuel to the existing economic crisis. Therefore, there is a need that political leadership sit together and take decisions in the national interest of Pakistan, rather than fighting for their petty political and personal gains.

— The writer is Professor of Politics and IR at International Islamic University, Islamabad.

Source: https://pakobserver.net/the-economic-crisis-of-pakistan-by-dr-muhammad-khan/

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Essay on (CPEC) China Pakistan Economic Corridor for CSS & PMS

• July 25, 2021
• Essay for CSS PMS and Judiciary Exam

This is an essay on (CPEC) China Pakistan Economic Corridor for CSS & PMS. China and Pakistan have agreed to build the One Belt One Road project more commonly known as China-Pakistan Economic Corridor is expected to bring about both peace and prosperity in South Asia. Find below the complete Essay on CPEC.

Introduction Development of Gwadar Previous project: Silk Road Projects Under CPEC The Concept of One Belt and One Road Different Routes in CPEC Geostrategic location of Gwadar Challenges for Pakistan Internal Challenges External Challenges Counter Indian influence Economic Gains from this Project Removal of Social Problems due to CPEC Effects of the CPEC Projects Conclusion

Essay on China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)

Introduction.

The CPEC is a 3,000-kilometre network of roads, railways, and pipelines to transport oil and gas from Gwadar Port to Kashgar city, northwestern China’s Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region, China Daily reports. China and Pakistan have agreed to build the One Belt One Road project more commonly known as China-Pakistan Economic Corridor is expected to bring about both peace and prosperity in South Asia. This corridor will link Kashgar in north-western China to Pakistan’s Gwadar port on the Arabian Sea near the border with Iran via roads, railways, and pipelines.

There are many internal and external challenges for the Pakistan government to implement this multi-dollars project. However, it is a game-changer project which will transforn1 the fate of Pakistan and will help Pakistan modernize. It will improve the economy and trade, enhance regional connectivity, overcome energy crises , develop infrastructure and establish people-to-people contacts in both countries.

Proposed by Chinese Premier Li Keqiang during his visit to Pakistan in May 2013, the CPEC  will act as a bridge for the new Maritime Silk Route that envisages linking three billion people in Asia, Africa, and Europe.

Development of Gwadar

The project links China’s strategy to develop its western region with Pakistan’s focus on boosting its economy, including the infrastructure construction of Gwadar Port, together with some energy cooperation and investment programs. It also involves road and railway construction including an upgrade of the 1300-km Karakoram Highway, the highest paved international road in the world which connects China and Pakistan across the Karakoram mountains.

The CPEC will reduce China’s routes of oil and gas imports from Africa and the Middle East by thousands of kilometers, making Gwadar a potentially vital link in China’s supply chain.

Previous project: Silk Road

With the support of China, Pakistan has gained significant importance not only in the region but the entire world. In recent years, both China and Pakistan have been making concerted efforts to revive the historic Silk Road which is one of the oldest known trade routes in the world and will provide a route for trade from Kashgar (China) to Gwadar (Pakistan). China-Pakistan Economic Corridor plan will help Pakistan to become one of the most strategically important countries in the region.

It will also provide an opportunity for China to build a naval base on Gwadar port that will increase the influence of China in the region and also counter US influence in the Asia-Pacific region. CBS News quoted some Western diplomats on the Pakistan-China partnership. According to  them, China’s increasing economic engagement with Pakistan should be seen in the context of Beijing’s “efforts to counter the US efforts to deepen alliances around the Asia-Pacific region.”

Projects Under CPEC

The “One Belt One Road” concept has international strategic importance. The One Belt One Road initiative covers countries and regions with a total population of 4.4 billion and a total economic the volume of US$ 21 trillion, 63 % and 29 %, respectively of the World.

According to the assessment of the Corridor, the plan is involved in laying the foundation for regional cooperation, improving economic growth, offering trade diversifications, investing in transportation, mining, and energy sectors, and creating political flexibility . It is a vision with world-changing implications, an unfolding plan that would weave much of Asia, Europe, Africa,  Oceania, and the Middle East much more closely together through a patchwork of diplomacy, new infi\structure, and free trade zones.

The “One Belt One Road” Project consists of three routes, southern, central, and northern route. The southern corridor begins from Guangzhou, which is the third-largest city of China in South Central China. This route moves towards western parts of China and connects Kashgar with Pakistan at Kunjarab – a point from where China wants to link to Gwadar port in the Arabian Sea. It is the shortest and the most feasible option for China.

The second Chinese option is the Central Corridor that starts from Shanghai and links the country to Tashkent, Tehran, and onwards to Bandar Imam Khomeini Port of Iran on the Persian Gulf. One of its branches goes up towards Europe. This is the longer route but could be an option if Pakistan does not deliver on the timelines of completing its road network to become a beneficiary of the New Silk Road Economic Belt. The third Chinese option is the Northern Corridor that starts from Beijing, passes through Russia, and links it to European cities.

The Concept of One Belt and One Road

Recognizing the fact that regional integration is an inevitable measure to meet the demands of the economically globalized world, the notion of the Silk Road was reformulated and rephrased by China in 2013 under ‘one road, one belt’ initiative, i.e., economic belt along the Silk Road and the Maritime Silk Road.

Pakistan is a significant partner for China as it links China to Central Asia, the Southern Asian region, and the Middle East, and its major deep-sea port Gwadar offers direct access to the Indian Ocean and beyond. Both countries have been working on enhancing their coordination and strategic communication to safeguard common interests. China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) represents a new model of Pakistan and China cooperation which will serve against the backdrop of complex and changing regional and international situations.

China and Pakistan have developed strong bilateral trade and economic ties and cooperation over the years. China has gradually emerged as Pakistan’s major trading partner both in terms of exports and imports. Bilateral trade and commercial links between the two countries were established in January 1963 when both signed the first bilateral long-term trade agreement. Both countries signed Free Trade Agreement (FTA) on November 24, 2006, and implemented it from July 1, 2007. Later on, both signed the FTA on Trade in Services on February 21, 2009, which became active from October 10 that year.

CPEC is an under-construction mega-project that will achieve the political and economic objectives through trade and development and will also strengthen the economic and trade cooperation between the two countries. This corridor will also be helpful in creating regional stability in South Asia.

Different Routes in CPEC

After completion of the corridor, it will function as a primary gateway for trade between China and Africa, and the Middle East. It is expected that this corridor will help cut the 12,000-kilometre the route which Middle East oil supplies must now take to reach the Chinese ports. This project will run through most of Pakistan starting from Gwadar in Balochistan and ending in Kashgar in western China while passing through parts of Punjab, Sindh, Balochistan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa provinces, and Gilgit-Baltistan in northern Pakistan to reach the Khunjrab Pass and beyond to China.

Pakistan has prepared a plan to construct three corridors after active consultation with the Chinese authorities; these are the eastern alignment, the central alignn1ent, and the western alignment.

Geostrategic location of Gwadar

The eastern alignment of the corridor originates from Gwadar, travels parallel to the Makran Coastal Highway eastwards (towards Karachi), and then after passing through parts of interior Sindh, and southern, central, and northern regions of Punjab, it reaches Islamabad. From Islamabad, it extends to Haripur, Abbottabad, and Mansehra districts of the relatively peaceful Hazara Division in KP this part of the corridor will also run through Muzaffarabad, the capital of Azad Jammu and Kashmir – and reaches Khunjrab after passing through Diamer and Gilgit areas in northern Pakistan.

The corridor will also run through the Pamir Plateau and Karakoram mountains. A link from Taxila through Peshawar and Torkhum will connect the eastern alignment of the corridor to Jalalabad in Afghanistan. Regional connectivity with India through the eastern alignment is designed to be provided through the Hyderabad-Mirpurkhas-Khokhrapar-Zero Point link and the Wagha border, Lahore.

Western alignment was the original alignment which the government says has been deferred until the eastern alignment of the corridor is completed. According to the western alignment plan, the economic corridor (highway and railway) starts from Gwadar and runs through some southern and eastern districts of Balochistan (Khuzdar and Dera Bugti, respectively), and some districts in south Punjab to reach D. I. Khan in KP.

From D. I. Khan, it further extends to Islamabad and Abbottabad, and from there onwards, the route is the same as in the eastern alignment. The western alignment will have an additional regional connectivity link to Afghanistan through Chaman and will connect with Iran through the Quetta-Kho-e-Taftan link.

Following are the challenges for Pakistan in fulfillment of CPEC.

Challenges for Pakistan

Pakistan faces several challenges in the implementation of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) project. These challenges can be identified as external and internal. The Vice Director General of Policy Research Office at the International Department of the Central Committee Communist Party of China, Dr. Luan Jianzhang is of the view that political unrest, the security situation, and administrative issues are some of the greatest challenges in the way of successful completion of the corridor.

The construction of the corridor has been defined by many as a strategic moment such that Pakistan has assumed the position of economic pivot for the whole region. This paradigm shift in circumstances is a cause of great worry for the enemies of Pakistan both within and outside. India, Israel, and the US are unhappy. For India, CPEC is a thorn in its paw. They have put their heads together to work out new strategies to block the project forward march. RAW has opened a special office in Delhi and has been allotted $300 million to disrupt CPEC. Already one can notice a sudden upsurge in the acts of terror in the three restive regions and activation of certain NGOs and think tanks all trying to air misgivings and create a fear psychosis.

Internal Challenges for Pakistan

In Pakistan, some political parties like ANP, Baloch nationalists, PkMAP raised serious objections to the CPEC project. Even PT! and JUI (F) showed inclinations to climb the bandwagon of anti-CPEC forces. Objections were being raised despite assurances by the government that this project will provide equal opportunities to all the provinces.

Security concerns have been the most critical challenge to the CPEC and both Pakistan and China have been trying to meet these. An arc of militancy stretches from Xinjiang to Gwadar consisting of groups like the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM), Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ), Daesh (ISIS), Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA), Balochistan Liberation Front (BLF) and the militant wings of some political parties. Most of these groups may not have an enn1ity with China itself but rather intend to attack the Chinese interests like the  CPEC as a means to deal with the Pakistani state.

Gwadar is the tail of the Silk belt, which will connect at Kashgar through different communication networks. The security of the whole corridor and Gwadar is a real concern for China. After the military operation in different parts of Pakistan, the terrorist infrastructure still exists inside and outside of the borders which will continue to pose a threat.

The support of the American CIA, Israeli Mossad, and Indian RAW has continuously been assisting the militant groups and sub-nationalists in all the provinces to conduct subversive acts – and using terrorist elements in the whole country to threaten the Pak-Chinese plans of developing the CPEC. In the past few years, they kidnapped and killed many Chinese nationals in Pakistan despite Pakistan’s efforts to provide the best possible security.

The army has announced the creation of a 10,000 men special force for protecting the development projects. The new force, named the Special Security Division, will comprise nine army battalions and six wings of paramilitary forces, the Rangers and the Frontier Corps.

External Challenges for Pakistan

As an economic enterprise, for the CPEC, the greatest challenge comes from competitors. The most significant is the Iranian port of Chabahar. India intends to invest significantly ($85 million) in the development of Chabahar, which lies a few miles away from Gwadar and is part of its efforts for access to land-locked Afghanistan and Central Asia while bypassing rival Pakistan. Chabahar will effectively be a way station for energy imports coming from the Gulf region and destined for Afghanistan and Central Asia.

It will also be a gateway to the Middle East, and possibly Europe, for exports originating from Afghanistan and Central Asia. While the Chabahar project has not yet been started due to the ongoing talks on the Iranian nuclear issue, the Gwadar port has already become functional. However, there is no need for contention between these two ports. Iran has a stake in the CPEC through the proposal to link the Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline with China, which has been described as a “common interest” between the three countries.

Counter Indian Influence

Indian involvement in Chabahar is linked to Pakistan’s refusal to allow India access to transit to and from Afghanistan, so India sees Iran as the next-best option. If Pakistan extends transit facilities to India, and then India may not be interested in building up Chabahar.

India is also not happy with the handing over of Gwadar Port development and its operations to China. There have long been reports that Delhi is fuelling insurgency in Balochistan, which is rich in oil and gas resources, but poor law and order conditions have halted work on exploration activities there. Experts believe the India-UAE nexus will try to fail the Gwadar Port development project and create hurdles in the way of exploration activities in Balochistan.

In recent years, India has been particularly active in engaging Central Asian states for the sake of pursuing energy deals. India can be easily accommodated via the CPEC itself through the eastern interface in Punjab and Sindh and transformed into a stakeholder in the success of both Gwadar and the CPEC.

The dice of connectivity loaded by China has left India confused and bewildered. India is also concerned about China’s huge investment in Pakistan, particularly its recent decision to fund for China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. China is also helping Pakistan in producing plutonium at the Chinese-built Kyushu reactor and will also sell eight submarines worth $5 billion, which will give a quantum jump to Pak Navy’s sea capability.

Economic Gains from this Project

After the completion of CPEC, Pakistan may become a trade hub in the region after Gwadar Port starts functioning fully and duty-free economic zones are set up. Many Central Asian states have also expressed interest in becoming part of the corridor. This strategic partnership between Pakistan and China has upset India that openly voiced its opposition and even premier Narendra Modi pressed the president of China during his visit to Beijing to drop the plan of developing the corridor. However, China did not cave into the pressure and vowed to push ahead with work on the project.

With Chinese clout growing and Russia flexing muscles to regain control over Central Asia, India is struggling to make some headway and spread its sphere of influence in the region. Delhi has bet on Iran and Afghanistan to reach the Central Asian states via land route as Pakistan and China have control over many land links that provide access to the resource-rich region.

India hopes it will be able to reach Central Asia through the Iranian port of Chabahar and build a north-south corridor that will run to Afghanistan and eventually stretch to Central Asia.

Pakistan has been playing a significant role in South Asia. After the completion of the ChinaPakistan Economic Corridor economic, commercial as well as geostrategic environment will improve in Pakistan. It will help Pakistan in dealing with the problems of poverty, unemployment, and inequities of undeveloped provinces.

During his meeting with President Xi Jinping, President Mamnoon  Hussain said, “the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor would prove to be a game-changer in the whole region by generating massive trade and economic activity and opening new vistas of progress and prosperity for the people of the two countries and about three billion people of the region” .

CPEC from all counts will prove a game-changer and will make China a real stakeholder in Pakistan’s stability and security. It is a win-win situation for both. It will greatly expand the scope for the sustainable and stable development of China’s economic development. Investments by China will boost Pakistan’s $274 billion GDP by over 15 %.

Corresponding progress and prosperity in Pakistan and China’s patronage will help Pakistan in getting rid of the decade-old labels of ‘epicenter of terrorism’, ‘most dangerous country, and a ‘failing state’.

Pakistan enjoys a more favorable financial situation compared to India by reducing its budget deficit to 4.7% of GDP in 2014 (as against India’s 7%) and Pakistan is both competitive and cheaper as an emerging market. China’s economic and military assistance will help Pakistan a great deal in narrowing its ever-widening gap in economic military-nuclear fields with India and in bettering its defense potential.

Ambassador of China to Pakistan Sun Weidong while talking about the corridor said that the setting up of energy, transport, infrastructure, and industrial projects under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) would benefit all the provinces of Pakistan. He said that the CPEC was not limited to just a road but it will connect the country with a number of motorways and infrastructure projects.

He explained that infrastructure projects included Gwadar port, the second phase of the upgrading project of Karakoram Highway, motorway project between Karachi and Lahore, Thakot-Havelian motorway, Gwadar port expressway, Gwadar international airport, and Karachi-Sukkur motorway, adding further that the project will increase collaboration in areas of energy, finance,  commerce, banking, industry, and education.

Removal of Social Problem due to CPEC

China-Pakistan Economic Corridor will help build a robust and stable economy in Pakistan and will create a significant opportunity for Pakistan to revive its industry and advance its economic interests. It will also help in overcoming the psychological barriers to flows of foreign investment from other sources. Despite its restrictive economic regime, over 150 private equity funds, foreign and domestic, are active in India.

Only three or four such funds are dedicated to investing government, with the participation of the private sector, to encourage foreign direct investment in Pakistan is indispensable. Finance Minister Ishaq Dar said war phobia can also be defeated through economic development. Peace and prosperity can be achieved with economic advancement.

This project will go beyond regional ambits to bring about enormous changes not only to the national economies of the benefiting states but also to the economics of the people at the grassroots level.

Effects of CPEC Projects

CPEC is the crown jewel in the new Pakistan economic paradigm because Pakistan has the opportunity to act independently of the western influence especially the US influence as it has proved of late, an irritant factor. CPEC project will also bring an opportunity to Pakistan for normalization of ties with India, Iran, and Afghanistan which will keep balance, strengthen prospects of peace and improve the socio-economic status of the people of the region.

CPEC is a game-changer project which will lift millions of Pakistanis out of poverty and misery. The project embraces the construction of the textile garments, industrial park projects, construction of dams, the installation of nuclear reactors, and creating networks of road, railway lines that will generate employment, and people will also take ownership of these projects. Fully equipped hospitals, technical and vocational training institutes, water supply, and distribution in undeveloped areas will also improve the quality of life of people.

CPEC is not only the name of road, port, and railway system but a multi-dollars mega project which will bring peace and prosperity in all the provinces of Pakistan. The chairman of the Gwadar port, Dostain Khan Jamaldini said that the CPEC would not only benefit Balochistan but also prove beneficial for the country’s three other provinces.

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An Economy Perpetually in Crisis Is Shredding Pakistan’s Middle Class

I SLAMABAD, Pakistan—For two decades, Muhammad Asim ran a small jewelry shop in central Islamabad with his older brother and slowly amassed the trappings of a dignified middle-class lifestyle.

But with consumer demand drying up and food and utility bills soaring, he said that life is slipping away. The family sold its car, and the two brothers now take a bus to work. He pulled his children out of their private school—and now sends his 14-year-old son to a cheaper private school and his 10-year-old daughter to a free government school.

“We are genteel people but now only God is keeping our honor intact,” Asim said.

Pakistan’s political and economic turmoil is chipping away at the gains in living standards that families have worked hard to achieve, leaving middle-class people like Asim struggling and the poor battling to survive.

As recently as 2017, during a rare period of stability, Pakistan’s middle class was seen as ascendant and was estimated by one study to be around 40% of the population. Official data from 2019, the most recently available, indicated that about 30% of Pakistanis had an income of more than $10 a day, a benchmark some economists use as the threshold for entry into the global middle class.

But inflation has subsequently taken off. “The lower middle class has been really hit in the last few years,” said Javaid Ghani, pro vice chancellor at Karachi’s Al Ghazali University, who has researched Pakistan’s middle class.

Many households in the country of 240 million people say they are struggling to hold on to the markers of a middle-class life as they are buffeted by higher food and energy prices. A consumer attitude report by market research group Ipsos this month found that just one in 10 Pakistanis believed that the country was heading in the right direction.

Meanwhile, families who were no longer poor but also not middle class have lost their footing. In Pakistan’s financial year that ended in June, more than 12 million people fell into poverty, according to the World Bank, using the poverty line of $3.65 a day. The number of people also reflects the impact of the devastating floods of 2022.

Fixing a broken economy is the priority for the new government headed by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, who took office this month after an election that political candidates and civil-society monitors allege was heavily rigged. Economic growth has stalled, inflation is averaging close to 30% in Pakistan’s current fiscal year and debt is spiraling.

“Real economic growth, after taking account of population increases, may well be negative,” said Ijaz Nabi, executive director of the Consortium for Development Policy Research, an economic think tank in Pakistan. He said the government must focus on getting inflation under control and gain some room to maneuver by reducing its deficit. “The economy isn’t generating employment, and you don’t have the fiscal headroom to fix the long-term problems.”

In an acknowledgment of the country’s dire straits, Sharif reached outside politics to pick Muhammad Aurangzeb as his new finance minister.

“We need surgery, we can’t make do with antibiotics,” Sharif said at his first cabinet meeting.

Aurangzeb, who previously worked at JPMorgan and headed one of Pakistan’s largest private banks, is tasked with working out a longer-term rescue program with the International Monetary Fund, whose loans are key to Pakistan paying its debt obligations and staying afloat. Pakistan has $8 billion in foreign currency reserves, while it must find $22 billion for debt payments and its current-account deficit for the coming fiscal year, which begins in July, according to the IMF.

Pakistan has been a frequent user of IMF programs. The country is now seeking its 24th bailout, and its current stopgap IMF loan ends in April.

The IMF programs impose bitter economic medicine that previous Pakistani administrations have struggled to stick with in the face of public opposition. With Sharif presiding over a shaky coalition government, and facing a large and angry opposition, that medicine will be even harder to swallow this time around. The IMF has already pushed the government to raise tax revenues and cut subsidies to utilities and fuel.

Electricity bills soared in the summer while bills for natural gas, used to heat homes in the winter, were up more than 900% in February from a year earlier, even for the lowest-volume consumers. Prices are set to increase again in the coming weeks.

Hoping to tame their bills, some families are unplugging their appliances.

Muhammad Khan, a restaurant manager in the northern city of Rawalpindi, has ditched his car for a motorbike and stopped buying new clothes and eating out. He switches his fridge off for several hours a day to save electricity on utility bills whose arrival he dreads. But despite working a second catering job on the side, he has to borrow from relatives to make ends meet.

“The lower middle class, like us, is now just posing as white collar. Honestly, we are in the poor class now,” said Khan. “Seeing the political situation, I have no hope.”

In a speech in parliament earlier this month Omar Ayub Khan, the leader of the opposition bloc, said Sharif was a fraudulent prime minister who has no right to carry out reforms or impose fresh taxes. Political candidates associated with jailed opposition leader Imran Khan have alleged they would have won a majority in parliament if not for election rigging. Pakistan authorities deny the election was rigged.

Khan’s party has also urged the IMF to tie future lending to an independent audit of the election results. The IMF, which is already working with the new government, has said Pakistan should work toward the peaceful resolution of electoral disputes.

On Wednesday, the lender said the country had met the benchmarks to conclude a stopgap lending program that ends in April. The IMF said that the country’s economic situation had improved in recent months, but growth would be modest.

To reduce Pakistan’s deficit, the lender wants it to privatize loss-making state-owned enterprises—like national carrier Pakistan International Airlines—which could result in tens of thousands of job cuts. The IMF also wants Pakistan to broaden its tax base to include the retail, real estate and agricultural sectors, important support bases for the coalition government. Pakistan’s tax-to-GDP ratio is less than 10%.

The lender has also urged Pakistan to overhaul its debt-laden energy sector and pointed to further increases in electricity prices ahead.

That is just what Muhamad Ilyas fears. A vegetable vendor in the eastern town of Daska who makes up to about $3 a day, Ilyas took loans from a local informal lender and a friend to pay a recent gas bill that was nearly a third of his monthly earnings. He now scavenges for wood to burn for cooking. He said the new government, which he considers illegitimate, will “fulfill every demand of the IMF, throwing us into another painful spell of price hikes.”

“Either they will push us to our graves or there will be a big explosion in this society,” he said.

Write to Saeed Shah at [email protected]